From rotoworld
Saturday's 8:00PM ET Game
Green Bay @ San Francisco
49ers defensive end Justin Smith is expected to return for the Divisional Round from a partially torn triceps in his left arm. Smith suffered the tear on Dec. 16 and will be just over three weeks removed from the injury on Saturday night. His effectiveness is a big question mark. Although Smith's 2012 numbers don't jump off the stat sheet, he's a critical puzzle piece on the 49ers' defense, attracting double teams for Aldon Smith to essentially rush quarterbacks unblocked off right end. It's no coincidence that Aldon is sack-less during the nine quarters Justin has missed. The Aldon-Justin tag-team combo is the Niners' primary means of generating pass rush, so there are big implications from this injury as San Francisco attempts to contain scorching-hot Aaron Rodgers. ... Rodgers has completed 102 of his last 149 passes (68.5 percent) for 1,310 yards (8.79 YPA), 11 scores, and no interceptions. He hasn't been picked off in 177 throws. The 49ers' top-four run defense is capable of shutting down Green Bay's DuJuan Harris-led ground game, but putting breaks on Rodgers' aerial assault may be impossible if San Francisco coordinator Vic Fangio can't bring any heat. There may not be an aspect of Pack-Niners that has a greater impact on the game's outcome than Justin Smith's ability or inability to play effectively through his arm tear.
Fangio's defense doesn't mix coverages much. It's a straightaway scheme that jams receivers on the perimeter, is immovable up front, and closes at inside linebacker as if Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis were shot out of a cannon. Carlos Rogers will cover the slot on all nickel downs, with Chris Culliver at left corner and Tarell Brown on the right. A matchup to watch is Randall Cobb versus Rogers in the slot. Cobb is cat-quick and Rogers doesn't move as well, so the Packers would be smart to attack there early and often. When Green Bay hosted San Francisco in Week 1, Rodgers went 9-of-9 for 77 yards throwing to Cobb. ... One potential disadvantage for Green Bay's passing game is injuries to Jordy Nelson (ankle) and Jermichael Finley (hamstring), each of whom played limited snaps in the Wild Card Round. Nelson was ineffective aside from two catches on one late first-half drive. Finley will draw Willis and strong safety Donte Whitner in coverage, and their physicality will make life hard on Green Bay's mentally unreliable tight end. ... Greg Jennings enters the Divisional Round as Rodgers' hottest weapon with team highs in receptions (19), receiving yards (226), and touchdowns (3) the past three weeks. Jennings plays both in the slot and outside, roaming around the formation depending on personnel groupings. ... James Jones, who led the NFL in regular season receiving scores (14), was a late-game near-hero in the Week 1 loss to San Francisco, ripping off a 49-yard catch and ten-yard TD in the fourth quarter.
The 49ers finished the season 11-4-1. There is a noticeable trend in their non-wins, as virtually all occurred when the opponent successfully ran on San Francisco's normally stout front. Marshawn Lynch (26-111-1), Ahmad Bradshaw (27-116-1), Steven Jackson (29-101-1), and Adrian Peterson (25-86) each tagged the Niners for consistent chain-moving gains for four quarters; they didn't just rack up stats in clock-killing mode. Scatback DuJuan Harris is serviceable when play design springs him into space, but ultimately Green Bay lacks a runner capable of posing the kinds of problems Lynch, Peterson, S-Jax, and Bradshaw did. ... The final score (30-22) of the Week 1 Pack-Niners game suggests a competitive battle, but that wasn't the case. The 49ers held a 23-7 lead until a pair of fourth-quarter Packers touchdowns, including one on a 75-yard Cobb punt return. Where San Francisco's offense really dominated was in the trenches, overwhelming Green Bay's defense en route to 170 yards and a touchdown on 26 combined carries (6.54 YPC) by Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, and then-package player Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick has since replaced Alex Smith at quarterback and Hunter is gone to injured reserve, but Gore is still playing at a high level and will be fresh after a first-round bye. Green Bay finished the regular season a middling 17th in run defense, allowing the seventh most yards per carry in the league (4.53). Offensive line play and run game are the biggest advantages San Francisco has on Green Bay.
Kaepernick has had ups and downs through seven starts, but far more "ups" while exhibiting big-time playmaking ability with a howitzer arm and game-breaking speed. Perhaps most impressive is Kaepernick's resiliency, bouncing back from adversity. After Seattle's defense shut down San Francisco's offense in Week 16, Kaepernick rebounded to light up Arizona's top-five pass defense in the regular season finale for two touchdowns and 276 yards on 28 attempts (9.9 YPA) without a turnover. Quietly, it may have been Kaepernick's best game of the season. The Niners won't struggle to move the ball on Green Bay's defense, and Kaepernick's dual-threat talents will play a big role. ... Michael Crabtree is playing the best football of his life -- coach Jim Harbaugh does an outstanding job of scheming Crabtree open as his featured pass option -- but the Niners could really use an injection of Vernon Davis. Although he compensates somewhat as a butt-kicking blocker, Davis has been a passing-game afterthought since early in the season, clearing 40 receiving yards once over his last 11 games. Green Bay allowed the second-fewest yards and seventh-fewest receptions to tight ends in 2012, so the on-paper matchup suggests breaking out in this particular game won't be easy. ... With Mario Manningham (knee) done for the season, expect to see Randy Moss and raw rookie A.J. Jenkins line up at outside receiver for the majority of Saturday night's game. Crabtree will take on Packers rookie Casey Hayward in the slot, while Moss and Jenkins deal with LCB Tramon Williams and RCB Sam Shields, respectively. A big play out of Moss or Jenkins could be the difference in what projects as a high-scoring, close affair.
Score Prediction: 49ers 34, Packers 30