Pacers vs. Knicks NBA Playoffs Game 1 Best Bet: New York Wants Revenge
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Special Game 1 Angle
New York will play with extra fire in this matchup because it is seeking revenge for last year's postseason loss to Indiana.
In that series, the Knicks struggled with injuries to key players like Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby, which make it impossible to be motivated by the outcome of last year's series between these teams to dislike the Knicks.
This year, the Knicks are healthy and sufficiently deep, which is why they are so reliable in clutch time — they have won both of their one-point games and their one overtime game, triumphing both against experienced Boston and up-tempo Detroit.
While their focus on defense has wavered, it has been sharp in the beginning of each series. In Game 1 against Boston, for example, their head coach altered his team's ball-screen strategy — relative to what he had done in the regular season against the Celtics — to flummox Boston's offense, which mustered 105 points including overtime.
Stopping The Offense's Centerpiece
The Knicks will be the only team tonight that will limit the production of their opponent's offensive centerpiece.
Indiana's offense runs through its point guard, Tyrese Haliburton, who is its top playmaker. The Knicks have many defenders who can be counted on to limit his productivity.
Mikal Bridges will likely be New York's first option to guard him. Bridges is a former All-Defensive Team selection who has the foot speed to limit Haliburton's driving actions.
On February 21, for example, Bridges handled a much tougher test, in terms of speed and quickness, in terms of Cleveland's much smaller guard Darius Garland. In that game, Garland was 0-for-5 when Bridges was his primary defender. Bridges is even more well-suited to handle a guard like Haliburton who is taller than Garland.
As measured by points per game allowed to a player, Deuce McBride might be an even better defensive option given his great success against Haliburton. McBride has consistently been getting more playing time — 32 minutes in Game 6 against Boston, most recently — and will also see plenty of time on Haliburton.
Of course, there's the versatile OG Anunoby, another All-Defensive Team selection who most recently did a great job of limiting the field goal efficiency of Boston's top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, which gives him a great outlook against Indiana's important half-court weapon Pascal Siakam, who he will likely focus on guarding.
Physicality and Rebounding
Playing physical defense is a core part of New York's identity. Motivated more strongly because of its desire for revenge, the Knicks will use their physicality to thrive against an Indiana team that, because its opponent played more physically, lost Game 3 in Milwaukee and Game 3 against Cleveland.
The Knicks already demonstrated their toughness when they withstood a hard test from the Pistons, who are themselves known for their physicality.
In Indiana's two losses in this postseason, they scored 101 points in a blowout loss against Milwaukee and 104 points in a blowout loss against Cleveland.
The Pacers' inferior physicality manifests itself in these blowout losses and, more specifically, in low offensive point totals and insufficient rebounding.
New York has the personnel to dominate on the glass in this matchup. Broadly speaking, they grab a high percentage of their misses and must be expected to do so against a Pacers team that, so far in these playoffs, is allowing over 16 second-chance points per game.
New York grabs even more of their missed shot attempts when Mitchell Robinson is playing.
In his team's last series against Boston, Robinson was sometimes limited because the Celtics played "hack-a-Mitch," purposely sending him to the free throw line in order to pressure his coach to sub him out.
Indiana won't do this, because "hack-a-Mitch" slows the game down and the Pacers like to play at a fast pace.
New York's Comfort on Offense
It is generally difficult for road teams, though, to dictate the pace at which a game is played, which is why the teams in this series will automatically have a more promising outlook at home than on the road.
To establish their preferred tempo, Indiana is going to need to force the Knicks to miss shots. When the Knicks make shots, they force Indiana to in-bound the ball and are able to establish their half-court defense.
Unfortunately for Indiana, the Knicks will be comfortable on offense against a Pacers team that primarily wants to take away three-point attempts. New York is much more focused on attempting shots at the basket.
The Knicks will live at the basket with their center Karl-Anthony Towns drawing his Indiana counterpart Myles Turner away from the basket and toward the perimeter.
Jalen Brunson
New York wants a half-court game primarily because that suits its superstar Jalen Brunson.
Like any team, Indiana is going to want to throw different defenders at Brunson in order to make him deal with a variety of styles and physical tool kits.
Andrew Nembhard will be one of those defenders, but he can't handle Brunson. In last year's playoffs, Brunson converted almost 70 percent of his field goal attempts when guarded by Nembhard.
Brunson averaged 31.5 points per game against Detroit, even though the Pistons have a top-caliber perimeter defender in Ausar Thompson, and 26.2 points per game against Boston's elite defense. Indiana doesn't have a tougher challenge to pose Brunson with.
The Pacers will try to limit Brunson with Aaron Nesmith, but then Josh Hart who is a great rebounder and Bridges will be able to capitalize on their size advantage against Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard.
Brunson's skill and New York's size will overwhelm Indiana's defense.
Karl-Anthony Towns
On defense, Turner would much rather hang around the basket where he is at his best accumulating blocks. Towns is a tough matchup for Turner because of his proclivity to operate along the perimeter.
Towns scored 40 and 30 points in his last two respective games against Indiana because Turner can't contain him. Turner's backup Thomas Bryant fares even more poorly against Towns.
Takeaway
New York's desire for revenge and home court advantage will fuel a fire that is too hot for Indiana.
The Knicks will come out sharp on offense and focused on defense.
As when they limited Detroit star Cade Cunningham's efficiency in Game 1 of the first round and that of Boston's star scoring duo in Game 1 of the second round, the Knicks will thrive on defense by stopping Indiana's most important scorers.
Conversely, the Pacers on defense won't have an option for Brunson, Towns, or even for Bridges and Hart. They will also get dominated on the glass in what will be a half-court game that suits New York's preference for playing slow.
The Knicks will impose themselves physically. In the half-court, they'll operate comfortably with their matchup advantages and their general inclination to attack the basket.
I therefore like the Knicks to cover the spread in Game 1 of a series that will see big wins for the home teams as they establish their preferred style of play.
Haliburton will especially struggle as a scorer. As evident in Game 1 of his series against Milwaukee, he often struggles to score in the beginning of a series partly because he is naturally inclined to be a passer rather than a scorer.
The Cleveland series was an exception because the Cavaliers lack players who can stay in front of Haliburton, but the Knicks have reliable defenders like Bridges and McBride.
Best Bet: Knicks -4.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points at -130 with Bovada
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Special Game 1 Angle
New York will play with extra fire in this matchup because it is seeking revenge for last year's postseason loss to Indiana.
In that series, the Knicks struggled with injuries to key players like Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby, which make it impossible to be motivated by the outcome of last year's series between these teams to dislike the Knicks.
This year, the Knicks are healthy and sufficiently deep, which is why they are so reliable in clutch time — they have won both of their one-point games and their one overtime game, triumphing both against experienced Boston and up-tempo Detroit.
While their focus on defense has wavered, it has been sharp in the beginning of each series. In Game 1 against Boston, for example, their head coach altered his team's ball-screen strategy — relative to what he had done in the regular season against the Celtics — to flummox Boston's offense, which mustered 105 points including overtime.
Stopping The Offense's Centerpiece
The Knicks will be the only team tonight that will limit the production of their opponent's offensive centerpiece.
Indiana's offense runs through its point guard, Tyrese Haliburton, who is its top playmaker. The Knicks have many defenders who can be counted on to limit his productivity.
Mikal Bridges will likely be New York's first option to guard him. Bridges is a former All-Defensive Team selection who has the foot speed to limit Haliburton's driving actions.
On February 21, for example, Bridges handled a much tougher test, in terms of speed and quickness, in terms of Cleveland's much smaller guard Darius Garland. In that game, Garland was 0-for-5 when Bridges was his primary defender. Bridges is even more well-suited to handle a guard like Haliburton who is taller than Garland.
As measured by points per game allowed to a player, Deuce McBride might be an even better defensive option given his great success against Haliburton. McBride has consistently been getting more playing time — 32 minutes in Game 6 against Boston, most recently — and will also see plenty of time on Haliburton.
Of course, there's the versatile OG Anunoby, another All-Defensive Team selection who most recently did a great job of limiting the field goal efficiency of Boston's top scorers Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, which gives him a great outlook against Indiana's important half-court weapon Pascal Siakam, who he will likely focus on guarding.
Physicality and Rebounding
Playing physical defense is a core part of New York's identity. Motivated more strongly because of its desire for revenge, the Knicks will use their physicality to thrive against an Indiana team that, because its opponent played more physically, lost Game 3 in Milwaukee and Game 3 against Cleveland.
The Knicks already demonstrated their toughness when they withstood a hard test from the Pistons, who are themselves known for their physicality.
In Indiana's two losses in this postseason, they scored 101 points in a blowout loss against Milwaukee and 104 points in a blowout loss against Cleveland.
The Pacers' inferior physicality manifests itself in these blowout losses and, more specifically, in low offensive point totals and insufficient rebounding.
New York has the personnel to dominate on the glass in this matchup. Broadly speaking, they grab a high percentage of their misses and must be expected to do so against a Pacers team that, so far in these playoffs, is allowing over 16 second-chance points per game.
New York grabs even more of their missed shot attempts when Mitchell Robinson is playing.
In his team's last series against Boston, Robinson was sometimes limited because the Celtics played "hack-a-Mitch," purposely sending him to the free throw line in order to pressure his coach to sub him out.
Indiana won't do this, because "hack-a-Mitch" slows the game down and the Pacers like to play at a fast pace.
New York's Comfort on Offense
It is generally difficult for road teams, though, to dictate the pace at which a game is played, which is why the teams in this series will automatically have a more promising outlook at home than on the road.
To establish their preferred tempo, Indiana is going to need to force the Knicks to miss shots. When the Knicks make shots, they force Indiana to in-bound the ball and are able to establish their half-court defense.
Unfortunately for Indiana, the Knicks will be comfortable on offense against a Pacers team that primarily wants to take away three-point attempts. New York is much more focused on attempting shots at the basket.
The Knicks will live at the basket with their center Karl-Anthony Towns drawing his Indiana counterpart Myles Turner away from the basket and toward the perimeter.
Jalen Brunson
New York wants a half-court game primarily because that suits its superstar Jalen Brunson.
Like any team, Indiana is going to want to throw different defenders at Brunson in order to make him deal with a variety of styles and physical tool kits.
Andrew Nembhard will be one of those defenders, but he can't handle Brunson. In last year's playoffs, Brunson converted almost 70 percent of his field goal attempts when guarded by Nembhard.
Brunson averaged 31.5 points per game against Detroit, even though the Pistons have a top-caliber perimeter defender in Ausar Thompson, and 26.2 points per game against Boston's elite defense. Indiana doesn't have a tougher challenge to pose Brunson with.
The Pacers will try to limit Brunson with Aaron Nesmith, but then Josh Hart who is a great rebounder and Bridges will be able to capitalize on their size advantage against Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard.
Brunson's skill and New York's size will overwhelm Indiana's defense.
Karl-Anthony Towns
On defense, Turner would much rather hang around the basket where he is at his best accumulating blocks. Towns is a tough matchup for Turner because of his proclivity to operate along the perimeter.
Towns scored 40 and 30 points in his last two respective games against Indiana because Turner can't contain him. Turner's backup Thomas Bryant fares even more poorly against Towns.
Takeaway
New York's desire for revenge and home court advantage will fuel a fire that is too hot for Indiana.
The Knicks will come out sharp on offense and focused on defense.
As when they limited Detroit star Cade Cunningham's efficiency in Game 1 of the first round and that of Boston's star scoring duo in Game 1 of the second round, the Knicks will thrive on defense by stopping Indiana's most important scorers.
Conversely, the Pacers on defense won't have an option for Brunson, Towns, or even for Bridges and Hart. They will also get dominated on the glass in what will be a half-court game that suits New York's preference for playing slow.
The Knicks will impose themselves physically. In the half-court, they'll operate comfortably with their matchup advantages and their general inclination to attack the basket.
I therefore like the Knicks to cover the spread in Game 1 of a series that will see big wins for the home teams as they establish their preferred style of play.
Haliburton will especially struggle as a scorer. As evident in Game 1 of his series against Milwaukee, he often struggles to score in the beginning of a series partly because he is naturally inclined to be a passer rather than a scorer.
The Cleveland series was an exception because the Cavaliers lack players who can stay in front of Haliburton, but the Knicks have reliable defenders like Bridges and McBride.
Best Bet: Knicks -4.5 at -113 with BetOnline & Tyrese Haliburton under 18.5 points at -130 with Bovada
