Celtics vs. Knicks NBA Playoffs Game 6 Best Bet: New York Is Locked-In Tonight
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Friday, May 16, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Is Boston Better Without Jayson Tatum?
Boston's Game 5 success indubitably buttresses the narrative that the Celtics are better without their star player, the injured Jayson Tatum.
It is true that they've won both of their postseason games that they played without him, but this is a miniscule sample size and we need to examine these games.
In the first of those two games, they scored 109 points against the Magic. 109 points is a subpar point total to begin with, but they also scored as many points only because Jaylen Brown stepped up with a 36-point performance that he was able to achieve specifically against Orlando's on-ball defenders.
In their second game without Tatum, they benefited from the fact that New York always underperforms with a two-game series lead. In the last two years, the Knicks are now 0-6 when they lead a series by multiple games.
Bad defense was a frequent feature of those six losses, as when they lost Game 3 in Philadelphia last year and Game 5 in Boston this year.
Examining New York's Defense
We cannot say that Boston is better without Tatum and we, therefore, cannot think that the Celtics have value as an underdog because Tatum is absent.
In Game 5, the Knicks lost because they played poorly. They weren't mentally prepared to handle a desperate Celtics team that, down two games in the series, needed to win at home.
One example that demonstrates my point is a Payton Pritchard three-point attempt that Pritchard converted after using a screen. In this play, New York's defender went under the screen.
It's impossible to say whether the defender was being lazy, dumb, or forgetful — his head coach obviously knows and obviously told his team that Pritchard is too good of a shooter to go under on screens set for him. In any case, we see here that Pritchard got an easy shot not because he did anything special but because New York's defense suffered a lapse.
These lapses were evident both in its transition defense and in its half-court defense. Knicks defenders failed to communicate. They were slow to get back on defense. Their reaction time in general was poor. Overall, they failed even the fundamentals. In sum, they lacked focus.
Tonight, with the Knicks obviously wanting to close out this series at home, we must expect a focused effort from them on defense in which, like Game 4 in Detroit where they limited the Pistons to 93 points, they bounce back after allowing a lot of points in their previous game.
Who Will Score For Boston?
Two games ago, Boston scored 113 points with Tatum scoring 42 of them.
Without Tatum, the Celtics lose a major scorer. With Tatum, they had three guys — Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown — who were capable of amassing big point totals, outnumbering the total of Knicks starters who are known for their excellent on-ball defense.
Now, Brown has to deal with OG Anunoby, who has done a great job in this series of limiting the field goal efficiency of Boston's scorers and provides an insuperably tougher test for Brown than Orlando's defenders did.
Mikal Bridges is also a well-reputed defender who has earned high grades in ball-screen defense, generally in half-court defense, and in other areas on defense.
Both Anunoby and Bridges have earned an All-Defensive Team selection
After scoring 34 points in Game 5, White is anyhow set to decline — as he did when he scored 17 points with a 42.9-percent field goal efficiency in Game 2 against Orlando, twelve points on March 6 against Philadelphia, and nine points on November 13 against Brooklyn. These three games demonstrate his tendency to flop after scoring 30 or more points in his previous game.
Kristaps Porzingis, affected by an illness, has yet to score more than eight points in a game this series. His field goal conversion rate is a pitiful 23.8 percent.
Jrue Holiday might reach double digits. Al Horford never scores well in two consecutive games.
Overall, Boston will lack sufficient firepower to keep up with the Knicks.
Outlook for New York's Offense
When New York scored 121 points in Game 4, Jalen Brunson scored 39 points. Brunson regularly provides big performances when his team is coming off a loss -- see Game 6 and Game 3 against Detroit for the two other examples of his supremacy in games that follow a Knicks loss.
In all three of those games, Brunson dealt with a well-reputed perimeter defender. There is no containing a superstar like Brunson when his team is coming off a loss.
He is an elite shooter who creates his own shot. His driving actions are also too difficult to stop.
Moreover, as his assist totals show, he gets teammates involved. Anunoby and Josh Hart are both efficient three-point shooters who benefit from the attention that defenses must devote to Brunson. Deuce McBride is also an efficient three-point shooter off the bench.
Karl-Anthony Towns is another solid shooter with visibly impressive range who provides great spacing for New York's offense as a center who is a weapon from deep.
Last game, Towns demonstrated success and comfort while being utilized as a post-up option especially when matched up against Boston's smaller players. This is something that will continue.
New York will have a complete, well-rounded offense that, led by its superstar, will easily outscore Boston's group of scorers that will be limited in tonight's situation, against New York's top on-ball defenders, without its star.
Whereas the Knicks will be able to stack the paint and dare Boston to shoot a bunch of threes or simply to rely on Bridges and Anunoby and its now switch-friendly defense to limit the Celtics' offense, Boston will be flummoxed by the combination of Brunson and Towns both inside and outside the arc and New York's role players stepping up at home.
Player Props
It sounds strange because I am recommending a play on the Knicks, but one of my favorite prop bets for tonight is Payton Pritchard's point total "over."
Pritchard, though, is a bench player. So, it isn't strange to like both him and the Knicks. This play signifies my lack of confidence in his teammates. Boston will need scorers. The Celtics also aren't going to score 50 points — some points will come from somewhere.
When Tatum is sidelined, Pritchard gets a lot more shooting volume. In Game 5, for example, he attempted 14 three-point attempts. With his teammates and his offense struggling given its lack of reliable scoring options and given the attention that New York will devote to limiting especially Brown, it won't be hard for him to hit his point total "over."
In addition to Tatum's absence creating good value on Pritchard's point total, New York coming off a loss creates good value for Brunson.
Best Bet: Knicks -2.5 at -112 with BetOnline, Payton Pritchard over 14.5 points at -125 with Bovada, Jalen Brunson over 39.5 points + assists + rebounds at -125 with Bovada
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Friday, May 16, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden
Is Boston Better Without Jayson Tatum?
Boston's Game 5 success indubitably buttresses the narrative that the Celtics are better without their star player, the injured Jayson Tatum.
It is true that they've won both of their postseason games that they played without him, but this is a miniscule sample size and we need to examine these games.
In the first of those two games, they scored 109 points against the Magic. 109 points is a subpar point total to begin with, but they also scored as many points only because Jaylen Brown stepped up with a 36-point performance that he was able to achieve specifically against Orlando's on-ball defenders.
In their second game without Tatum, they benefited from the fact that New York always underperforms with a two-game series lead. In the last two years, the Knicks are now 0-6 when they lead a series by multiple games.
Bad defense was a frequent feature of those six losses, as when they lost Game 3 in Philadelphia last year and Game 5 in Boston this year.
Examining New York's Defense
We cannot say that Boston is better without Tatum and we, therefore, cannot think that the Celtics have value as an underdog because Tatum is absent.
In Game 5, the Knicks lost because they played poorly. They weren't mentally prepared to handle a desperate Celtics team that, down two games in the series, needed to win at home.
One example that demonstrates my point is a Payton Pritchard three-point attempt that Pritchard converted after using a screen. In this play, New York's defender went under the screen.
It's impossible to say whether the defender was being lazy, dumb, or forgetful — his head coach obviously knows and obviously told his team that Pritchard is too good of a shooter to go under on screens set for him. In any case, we see here that Pritchard got an easy shot not because he did anything special but because New York's defense suffered a lapse.
These lapses were evident both in its transition defense and in its half-court defense. Knicks defenders failed to communicate. They were slow to get back on defense. Their reaction time in general was poor. Overall, they failed even the fundamentals. In sum, they lacked focus.
Tonight, with the Knicks obviously wanting to close out this series at home, we must expect a focused effort from them on defense in which, like Game 4 in Detroit where they limited the Pistons to 93 points, they bounce back after allowing a lot of points in their previous game.
Who Will Score For Boston?
Two games ago, Boston scored 113 points with Tatum scoring 42 of them.
Without Tatum, the Celtics lose a major scorer. With Tatum, they had three guys — Tatum, Derrick White, and Jaylen Brown — who were capable of amassing big point totals, outnumbering the total of Knicks starters who are known for their excellent on-ball defense.
Now, Brown has to deal with OG Anunoby, who has done a great job in this series of limiting the field goal efficiency of Boston's scorers and provides an insuperably tougher test for Brown than Orlando's defenders did.
Mikal Bridges is also a well-reputed defender who has earned high grades in ball-screen defense, generally in half-court defense, and in other areas on defense.
Both Anunoby and Bridges have earned an All-Defensive Team selection
After scoring 34 points in Game 5, White is anyhow set to decline — as he did when he scored 17 points with a 42.9-percent field goal efficiency in Game 2 against Orlando, twelve points on March 6 against Philadelphia, and nine points on November 13 against Brooklyn. These three games demonstrate his tendency to flop after scoring 30 or more points in his previous game.
Kristaps Porzingis, affected by an illness, has yet to score more than eight points in a game this series. His field goal conversion rate is a pitiful 23.8 percent.
Jrue Holiday might reach double digits. Al Horford never scores well in two consecutive games.
Overall, Boston will lack sufficient firepower to keep up with the Knicks.
Outlook for New York's Offense
When New York scored 121 points in Game 4, Jalen Brunson scored 39 points. Brunson regularly provides big performances when his team is coming off a loss -- see Game 6 and Game 3 against Detroit for the two other examples of his supremacy in games that follow a Knicks loss.
In all three of those games, Brunson dealt with a well-reputed perimeter defender. There is no containing a superstar like Brunson when his team is coming off a loss.
He is an elite shooter who creates his own shot. His driving actions are also too difficult to stop.
Moreover, as his assist totals show, he gets teammates involved. Anunoby and Josh Hart are both efficient three-point shooters who benefit from the attention that defenses must devote to Brunson. Deuce McBride is also an efficient three-point shooter off the bench.
Karl-Anthony Towns is another solid shooter with visibly impressive range who provides great spacing for New York's offense as a center who is a weapon from deep.
Last game, Towns demonstrated success and comfort while being utilized as a post-up option especially when matched up against Boston's smaller players. This is something that will continue.
New York will have a complete, well-rounded offense that, led by its superstar, will easily outscore Boston's group of scorers that will be limited in tonight's situation, against New York's top on-ball defenders, without its star.
Whereas the Knicks will be able to stack the paint and dare Boston to shoot a bunch of threes or simply to rely on Bridges and Anunoby and its now switch-friendly defense to limit the Celtics' offense, Boston will be flummoxed by the combination of Brunson and Towns both inside and outside the arc and New York's role players stepping up at home.
Player Props
It sounds strange because I am recommending a play on the Knicks, but one of my favorite prop bets for tonight is Payton Pritchard's point total "over."
Pritchard, though, is a bench player. So, it isn't strange to like both him and the Knicks. This play signifies my lack of confidence in his teammates. Boston will need scorers. The Celtics also aren't going to score 50 points — some points will come from somewhere.
When Tatum is sidelined, Pritchard gets a lot more shooting volume. In Game 5, for example, he attempted 14 three-point attempts. With his teammates and his offense struggling given its lack of reliable scoring options and given the attention that New York will devote to limiting especially Brown, it won't be hard for him to hit his point total "over."
In addition to Tatum's absence creating good value on Pritchard's point total, New York coming off a loss creates good value for Brunson.
Best Bet: Knicks -2.5 at -112 with BetOnline, Payton Pritchard over 14.5 points at -125 with Bovada, Jalen Brunson over 39.5 points + assists + rebounds at -125 with Bovada
