Over/unders Trend

[YoungGun11]

As a long time hockey guy who has not only bet, but played, reffed, and coached for a very long time I have a question. Does anyone else notice that teams that are in the first game of back to back tend to go under, and on the second night go over.

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I feel like the second game of back to backs for both teams tend to go over with legs tiring and mental fatigue. I think the first game teams tend to play a bit tight, roll 4 lines keeping the skill guys off the ice to preserve energy, and often back ups play the 2nd night in goal.

Does anyone have any stats or trends, as I truly feel this is something that happens quite consistently first night under, 2nd night over. The reasons behind it are obvious.

1ST GAME UNDERS
Well rested
preparation time for the team
roll 4 lines preserving energy for next night
starting goalie


2ND GAME OVERSTravel
Back up goalies
Legs tired
Mental fatigue
often sore or injured less likely to finish check or block shot
fatigue leads to penalties.
LAck of preparation

 

[gsro]

certainly an idea YG, you also have to take note the 3 in 4 (where the back to back happening at the tail end has more effect) and also the 4 in 6 for scheduling....

 

[YoungGun11]

I think I am on to something and have certainly noticed it this year thus far, I am just not sure how to track it and follow it as I am not good with that stuff.

There isn't a game today where both played back to back, but keep an eye on Anaheim/Philly (anaheim should have been under yesterday if not for a 4 goal 3rd and a penalty shot), Buffalo/Carolina (buffalo should have been under see Anaheim), Colorado/Toronto, Tampa/New jersey.

 

[YoungGun11]

Teams on the back end of back to back 2-1-1 on overs. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Tonight Calgary/Chicago and Edmonton/Arizona have a team on the back end of back to backs.

 

[gsro]

I think if you were to go back to last season it would show even distribution..just my personal take...teams on back to back are perceived to be tired, but really on back to backs they play more defense and play more to possession imo...

 

[gsro]

it might look appealing because each team is about 3/4 games in but I think it evens out

 

[gsro]

quickly looked at the Ducks schedule from last year where they had 12 back to back games and the second game they went 5-7 O/U

also found a very bad defensive team and see how they did last year and it was the leafs who were 9-6 O/U

I don't think there is going to be that large of a winning percentage, but based on the opponent's you may be able to find an angle. between those two teams though it is 14-13 O/U i'm sure it's about .500 for the league

 

[gsro]

this is using an average line of 5.5 as well

 

[YoungGun11]

Thanks GSRO, I just thought it was interesting. I realize my sample size is tiny as Crosby's pecker but I am keeping an eye on it. Good luck. I may need to start posting my personal plays, I love that the NHL thread is picking up steam.

 

[bostonshamrock]

younggun i track the 2nd games of b2b's looking for spots/situations not specifically o/u's . can post or share the info if interested. as of today o/u's are 6-4 on the 2nd game of a b2b not including jets/kings (push) and rags/leafs (over) on the 12th- both were on b2b. home/road b2b's are 2-1 o/u, road/home b2b's are 1-0 o/u, road/road b2b's are 3-3 o/u. no home/home b2b's yet. 1st periods are 5-5 o/u in these games, h/r 1st 1-2 o/u, r/h 1st 0-1 o/u, r/r 1st 4-2 o/u
good luck

 

[YoungGun11]

Thanks Boston, looking forward to working with you. On the somewhat rare occasion both teams are back to back, I will be looking to go Over on those. Last night 2-1 witha +145 which helped for a winning night.