OU -8 v Tx Tech

[captbunch18]

This is a line that jumps out, but still can't get a feel on it either way. Tech is undefeated, but hasnt played very many good teams. OU hasn't looked dominated, but people still remember the UT game. I think the last time the line was this low for a Tech game @ OU was 2008 and that has a lot of similarities to this one. Tech on back to back road trips, higher ranked, yet still at 8 point dog. Thoughts on this one?

 

[Gyno]

What has Oklahoma shown you to make you think they are a really good team?
Life or death @ home vs a shitty TCU team? Blownout by TX?

What has TT done wrong?

 

[captbunch18]

Nothing, which is why I don't get the line. Why is it so large?

 

[cxbbum]

I think it's because they lost to OU by 21 at home last year

 

[Elbutre88]

pretty bad spot for the raiders. OU has a bye next week. big game bob is still embarrassed about the red river shootout. Tech has okie state at home the next week. Tech has played 7 teams this year. 3 of them are texas state, stephen f austin, and kansas. Hard for me to put a whole lot of weight in that schedule. Think bobby is gonna have a surprise for kliff in norman. although the line movement makes me wonder.

 

[captbunch18]

pretty bad spot for the raiders. OU has a bye next week. big game bob is still embarrassed about the red river shootout. Tech has okie state at home the next week. Tech has played 7 teams this year. 3 of them are texas state, stephen f austin, and kansas. Hard for me to put a whole lot of weight in that schedule. Think bobby is gonna have a surprise for kliff in norman. although the line movement makes me wonder.

agree..but the line going down has me curious.

 

[HammersSpreads]

I figured the line would go down honestly. A lot of TT love going around, so I wouldn't let that scare you. Instead, embrace it if you line OU in this game

 

[Streakin]

After tcu and texas, i will not place another dime on that pos team. But, I also dont think tech is very good. It is a tough one. For me, its tech or nada. GL on whatever u play.

 

[captbunch18]

I figured the line would go down honestly. A lot of TT love going around, so I wouldn't let that scare you. Instead, embrace it if you line OU in this game

I actually have it OU -4 so being that far off didn't seem right.

 

[s--k]

The Big Ten Network guys tonight, three of them picked Texas Tech (to win, they don't talk spreads) and the 4th Jerry Dinardo said Oklahoma "upset".

I had been considering TT, but that was enough to make me drop it.

 

[Gyno]

Ok I get TT might be overrated and its a bad spot, not a horrible spot but not a great spot. But with all that said are the Sooners that good? What have they shown to be considered a good team that can exploit TT? TT has an offense that is hard to contain, they pass the ball around to like 8 different guys a game on average.

They also have done nothing wrong to this point of the season.

 

[austinhous]

Bob Stoops versus Texas Tech

[TABLE="width: 392"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Date[/TD]
[TD]Site[/TD]
[TD]Final[/TD]
[TD]Line[/TD]
[TD]SUr[/TD]
[TD]ATSr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]2-Oct-04[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]28-13[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-25[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]19-Nov-05[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]21-23[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]7.5[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]11-Nov-06[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]34-24[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]17-Nov-07[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]27-34[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7.5[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]22-Nov-08[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]65-21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]21-Nov-09[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]13-41[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-5.5[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]13-Nov-10[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]45-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-16[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]22-Oct-11[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD]38-41[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-29[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]6-Oct-12[/TD]
[TD]away[/TD]
[TD]41-20[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-4.5[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]26-Oct-13[/TD]
[TD]home[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[austinhous]

Since 2008:
Texas Tech:
13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS as road favorite
2-10 SU and 4-7-1 ATS as road dog

Oklahoma:
31-3 SU and 20-13-1 ATS at home

Oklahoma has not been lined as less than a touchdown favorite at home since September 29, 2001. They are 72-5 SU and 44-32-1 ATS at home since then.

 

[piperdog188]

Not sure any TT trends prior to 2013 are relevant.

 

[austinhous]

My bad. Just thought it was interesting to see what happened in the past instead of going in blindly.

 

[piperdog188]

My bad. Just thought it was interesting to see what happened in the past instead of going in blindly.

No worries Austin, didn't mean for it to come off like that. Tough game to get a handle on, but I think TT is still getting too much love from the human polls. I want to see them hang with an Oklahoma team that has been gangbusters at home before I start backing them.

 

[captbunch18]

No worries Austin, didn't mean for it to come off like that. Tough game to get a handle on, but I think TT is still getting too much love from the human polls. I want to see them hang with an Oklahoma team that has been gangbusters at home before I start backing them.

I disagree with this one. They beat WV 16-7 and TCU 20-17 at home. I think their home reputation is much better than this team is showing. Who knows, I think I end of up the ML on Tech.

 

[s--k]

The momentum and buy-in for Tech with Kingsbury must be acknowledged.

Was Kliff coaching the Cotton Bowl last year for aTm vs OU or had he already moved onto the TT job? If he coached in that game then that gives him advantage of having prepped for Sooners twice now in less than 12 months, so familiarity edge goes to Kliff.

I think you could make a case this game is bigger for TT than OU. Not for the reasons of winning the conference or anything, but having a former TT QB who was playing not all that long ago and facing big bad OU, Raiders with a chip on the shoulder coming in here. Big Game Bob isn't big game Bob anymore.

I lean with TT, but the fact that they are such a public dog scares me. Maybe I throw .5u on them I don't know.

I agree that OU has not done anything of much consequence this year. The ND game was good, but they did let ND run up and down the field on them and ND had not previously done that vs anyone and that was before OU had the DT and LB injuries. We know Tex gashed them on the ground and even KU ran real good against them.

What's not to like about TT? Weak schedule? Just means they haven't played anybody good yet, doesn't mean they won't play good this week.

The KU struggles could be wake up call for OU, or that could just be who they are, not an extremely good team.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Only part I'll disagree with on you there SK is that this OU offense is much different than it was a year ago. Lot of different plays and lots of different philosophy. That's also prob part of the reason why it is struggling, bc Heupel isn't used to calling plays from this offense.

And I by no means think it's a bigger game for TT than it is OU. I wouldn't buy that for a second

 

[Elbutre88]

The momentum and buy-in for Tech with Kingsbury must be acknowledged.

Was Kliff coaching the Cotton Bowl last year for aTm vs OU or had he already moved onto the TT job? If he coached in that game then that gives him advantage of having prepped for Sooners twice now in less than 12 months, so familiarity edge goes to Kliff.

I think you could make a case this game is bigger for TT than OU. Not for the reasons of winning the conference or anything, but having a former TT QB who was playing not all that long ago and facing big bad OU, Raiders with a chip on the shoulder coming in here. Big Game Bob isn't big game Bob anymore.

I lean with TT, but the fact that they are such a public dog scares me. Maybe I throw .5u on them I don't know.

I agree that OU has not done anything of much consequence this year. The ND game was good, but they did let ND run up and down the field on them and ND had not previously done that vs anyone and that was before OU had the DT and LB injuries. We know Tex gashed them on the ground and even KU ran real good against them.

What's not to like about TT? Weak schedule? Just means they haven't played anybody good yet, doesn't mean they won't play good this week.

The KU struggles could be wake up call for OU, or that could just be who they are, not an extremely good team.

i'll just say what i don't like about tt, to call their schedule weak is only looking at one side of the coin. They're defensive line has not faced anyone with a competent secondary and a competent rushing attack. I think OU has both. they have athletes in the secondary that the red raiders have not had to face, and ou also rushes the ball more than anyone else tt has faced, and they've rushed for more yards. ou has looked like absolute dog shit the last 2 weeks, and their qb troubles cannot be ignored. but ou still has athletes that tt has not seen. that's the problem with their weak schedule. it's akin to ND last year in the nat'l championship game. ND just had never seen athletes on that level. they just couldn't compete. when tt's run defense limits ou enough, i will fully buy into this program, but, until that happens, i'll bet on the better run game and better athletes at home a majority of the time.

 

[piperdog188]

T

I lean with TT, but the fact that they are such a public dog scares me. Maybe I throw .5u on them I don't know.

Always a big thing I like to look for. Will be interesting to track the betting percentages, but whenever the public overwhelming backs a road dog and the line doesn't move or moves up, it's basically an auto play for me (ie Washington/ASU last week).

This confirmed what I thought too: "BetOnline.ag’s Dave Mason estimates that a higher-ranked underdog receives the public’s betting support upward of 90 percent of the time."

 

[captbunch18]

It is so nice to have a good discussion about a line/game and it not end up in a pissing match. so glad i made my way over here. I live in Texas and follow the big 12 a lot, which is why I am curious as to this line.

I know you can't play the comparison game equally...but here are some things.

KU rushed for 185 yards on 39 carries against OU, for a 4.74 YPC.
KU rushed for 53 yards on 37 carries against Tech, for a 1.43 YPC.

The point I make about this game is that the DC at Tech has had a gameplan to stop something the opponent does each game. Tech has been able to do that, for the most part.

Kliff didnt coach the Ags in the Cotton Bowl, I think he was hired the first or second week of December. He might have helped put in the game plan though.

As far as public dogs go, as of now, only 55% of the plays are on Tech and the line is moving with that %, not against it. Who knows how this game plays out.

Again, thanks for the discussion

 

[Gyno]

.

I lean with TT, but the fact that they are such a public dog scares me. Maybe I throw .5u on them I don't know.

.

I hate public dogs as well but TT is not even close to a public dog. What makes you think that?

 

[s--k]

I hate public dogs as well but TT is not even close to a public dog. What makes you think that?

Pregame.com bet % shows 59% on TT. TV analysts picking TT like they are playing some pushover and the line dropping every time I check the spreads, down to 6.5 now. Spread movement in an of itself does not indicate whether it is square or sharp action, but I think the first two indicators show heavy public selection of Raiders.

 

[s--k]

Does anyone do those yahoo pick'em leagues with spread? The pick % usually are on the favorites. Not too often, maybe 1-3 times a week will a dog get the majority of picks. TT is 60% this week. I'm in a league with about 20 people, some who follow the sport closely, others somewhat close and others not much at all, they just make picks on uniform color I presume. I don't think the majority of people in those kinds of things generally would be people who put money on games. Two out of the 20 in my league bet, myself included. So when I see a dog there getting majority picks I tend to consider them a public dog as well.

 

[captbunch18]

Does anyone do those yahoo pick'em leagues with spread? The pick % usually are on the favorites. Not too often, maybe 1-3 times a week will a dog get the majority of picks. TT is 60% this week. I'm in a league with about 20 people, some who follow the sport closely, others somewhat close and others not much at all, they just make picks on uniform color I presume. I don't think the majority of people in those kinds of things generally would be people who put money on games. Two out of the 20 in my league bet, myself included. So when I see a dog there getting majority picks I tend to consider them a public dog as well.

i always thought the yahoo % was national, not just your pools.

I just looked at mine at and it is 60% OU

 

[s--k]

My league is ATS, but I think when yahoo shows the pick % that it takes the universe of yahoo college pick'em leagues which includes both ATS and SU. Not sure they would show different pick % for the SU league and one for the ATS league. At minimum the 60% is ATS pick, but there is a chance it could be 60% pick both ATS and SU picks.

 

[captbunch18]

My league is ATS, but I think when yahoo shows the pick % that it takes the universe of yahoo college pick'em leagues which includes both ATS and SU. Not sure they would show different pick % for the SU league and one for the ATS league. At minimum the 60% is ATS pick, but there is a chance it could be 60% pick both ATS and SU picks.

my league is showing 60% on OU--funny

 

[captbunch18]

ESPN pick 'em is showing 65% on OU, but the avg confidence points is 4.1

 

[s--k]

OK, looked further. Yahoo has ATS, SU and confidence. I think since our league is ATS we are only seeing pick % for ATS.

In SU leagues OU is 58%
In ATS leagues TT is 60%
In confidence leagues OU is 60% with avg confidence of 5.2 to TT avg conf of 4.4
In ATS and confidecne leagues TT is 61% with avg TT conf of 9 and avg OU conf of 9.6

See if this link gets it for you:
http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/college/pickdistribution?gid=&week=9&type=s

Or it is under 'pick distribution' in the header of your yahoo pick'em home page.

 

[captbunch18]

Ok...screw it. Going +200 on the Tech ML. They win or get crushed.