Opening Night NBA Plays and Analysis Thread(Tuesday Oct 31st)

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
15-5-1 +6.18 units

The opening night slate features a TNT doubleheader. The defending champs take on the new look Bulls while LAL and the Suns reprise their rivalry which generated a classic seven game series last season.

The lines are up at Pinnacle already and I deceided to play them now as I already have my plays decided. You will see me you a lot of situational handicapping throughout the season. I think these are two solid spost situationally and also think the lines are off a tad.

Miami vs Chicago

First off, you always look for a little bit of a letdown for a championship team after they recieve their rings on opening night. This isn't always the case but more often than not it is. The Heat didn't show much in preseason. They obviously wanted Wade to get some downtime as he has been ballin around the clock for a year now. There is talk today that he isn't keen on finishing his Olympic comittment. He says he is exhausted right now. Keep an eye on that early in this season.

The new look not so Baby Bulls will have this sorta identity this season IMO; They will be tough, grind it out and let Gordon and Hinrich make they plays on offense. Add Luol Deng to that as well. I am not predicting this team to be great but I think they will be a heck of a regular season team. They are right in the mold of the Cralisel Pistons and Pacers teams. Tough teams that don't score a lot but don't give up much either. Those types of teams also come to play every night.

Both teams will struggle to score in this game in my estimation. I think it will be a grind it out game where Flash Wade wins it late. Way too many points here.

Chicago +8 -110

LA Lakers vs Phoenix

Well, what a series it was last year between these teams. From buzzer beaters to horse-collars to Kobe24's antics in Game 7 that series had it all. It was quite entertaining indeed. We can only hope for such an encore edition Tuesday night.

The situational angle we have here is a revenge game from a playoff series. Add to that the bonus of getting that team at home catching points. There will be a few spots in November where we see games like these and I think we will do quite well in those spots.

The Raja Bell-Kobias rivalry will be a hit for seasons to come out West. Its heated and its bitter no doubt. Raja seems to think that referee's are going to give him the benefit of the doubt. The kid is clueless. He must not have watched the rest of the playofffs last year. This is certainly a start players league again and Kobe may shoot 15 FT's here in the opener.

The Lakers have added some parts. Radmonavic is a nice addition and slowly last year Lamar figured out what he could do for this team. I think this team will have a much better regular season this time around.

I actually think Lakers win this one on the court. I will be safe openeing night though and take them points.

Lakers +5 -105 (1.5 units)(may hedge off due to Bryant Status)


GL to all. Any other thoughts or questions please post.
 
Last edited:
SEMCON DON said:
They look solid bro. Good Luck opening day and for the entire season.

I do not need luck..Imam SEMCON bro...lol

Best of luck to you as well Vas. Imma sure you will be keeping a track of Stephon and the Stons 'curious' outcomes.
 
i'm loving the lakers, too, big al. i think the lakers exact revenge on their rival. lakers by DD!

good luck, my friend. :15_10_5:
 
linewatcher said:
i'm loving the lakers, too, big al. i think the lakers exact revenge on their rival. lakers by DD!

good luck, my friend. :15_10_5:

Awesome bro. This line is slightly highre than the playoff lines. They think Suns are better sans Timmy T and withy a gimpy Amare. I don't think so. I expect this line to close at a 3.

GL buddy:cheers:
 
I grabbed the 8 of course. Lakers? Kobe apparently may not play and Brown out. Not sure here. Have not been really studying Suns. Amare probably ineffectual. What are the angles you see here?
 
I understand Brown being out but as far as Kobias no I was expecting him to play. The line would have to be higher if Kobe was def out. This line is only 1.5 .5 points higher than games at that venue in playoffs. Kobe not playing would merit a spread of 7-8 something IMO. Obviously if he is out I will have to adjust things.
 
Reports are questionable to doubtful. It seems like it will be him vs the staff as to whether or not he plays. You know he wants to play but it is a long season. This has been 4 months since his surgery for a process that usually takes 2-3 months to heal. Being a quick healer, this is starnge. He did go pretty strong in practice the other day.

I feel he will play. I am going to let the next day or two pass and may still hedge off this bet. The price has went up 5 cents since I played it so no drastic movement yet.
 
i will be watchin this system closely

good chance i will be on both of em also, need to wait till closer to game day, but im sure i will be rollin witcha here. good luck an keep it up dog
 
Your Chicago bet looks very good. Line has already fallen off to 7.

LA is the side I would take in the PHX game if anything, but I'm not crazy about it...if Bryant is down, obviously that would hurt my opinion even more...
 
Hi BAR,
I like your Chicago pick.But at 7 it's already far less interesting.
Being an over/under bettor, I do like the under 193 here.
Preseason has said it all, the Bulls will try to keep games within the 80/95 range.
Miami should be strugling a bit to score as you mentionned, with all those old bodies and the title hangover.

I'm seeing something in the 90s vs mid 80S.
This cut is way too high in my opinion. Very consistant under bet here IMHO.
 
Hi Karlovie..

karlovie said:
Hi BAR,
I like your Chicago pick.But at 7 it's already far less interesting.
Being an over/under bettor, I do like the under 193 here.
Preseason has said it all, the Bulls will try to keep games within the 80/95 range.
Miami should be strugling a bit to score as you mentionned, with all those old bodies and the title hangover.

I'm seeing something in the 90s vs mid 80S.
This cut is way too high in my opinion. Very consistant under bet here IMHO.

I remember you quite well from Covers last winter/spring. Good to see you here at CTG. I agree wholeheartedly with that total. I am quite supirsed it is that high. I hate playing both side/total but this game may warrant as much.

GL and I welcome any further discussion with yourself.
 
B.A.R. said:
I remember you quite well from Covers last winter/spring. Good to see you here at CTG. I agree wholeheartedly with that total. I am quite supirsed it is that high. I hate playing both side/total but this game may warrant as much.

GL and I welcome any further discussion with yourself.

Well, I'm just a 50+ capper, with 60/70 runs...I'm glad this place has been set up. Will try to improve here, and as usual share my toughts and leans.

GL to you and to all for this season, in this great place.
Hope we'll see Phillyroom.
 
Adding.....

Chicago-Miami Under 191 -109

I really think this is a solid play. I cannot see either reaching the 100 point mark tonight. In Miami's case a mixture of getting the rings, their being out of shape and Bulls defense should keep them 90-95 points at best. As far as Chicago, they will run at times off Ben and PJ boards and outlets but mostly will be more grind it out this year. I see a 94-90 final.

GL to all cappers tonight:cheers:
 
like the Mia/Chi under a lot

i think between the ball, the defensive focus for both teams, and big ben in the middle we will see a lower scoring game

im on the u191.5 myself
 
Yeah renew, it opened there last Thursday night or Friday morning at Pinny. I played it right away.

Lunchbox!!...whats up buddy. Glad you made it to the gig. Should be a great year. Glad to have you aboard.
 
alright...added a couple things today..here is the final card...

Chicago +8 -110
Chicago under 191 -109
LA Lakers +5 -105 (1.5 units)
LA Lakers + 4 +100 (.50 units)
LA Lakers ML +169 (.50 units)
LA Lakers ML +176 (.50 units)

GL to all tonight. Go LAKERS!
 
Let's do it, BAR.

NBA newbie here so I'm straight tailing BAR here.

Lakers +4' (-104)
Bulls/Heat Under 188' (-105)

Both plays for $100
 
rj, I know you might not like this suggestion...but I'm just throwing it out there for future bets

If you're gonna bet say 2 games that proceed each other (like tonight bulls game will be over before lakers starts) and you're gonna put 100 on each spread/total, you should probably parlay them for $100

think of it like this

you're gonna play both either way, so just parlay them like this...

Bulls Under 189
Lakers +4

$100 to win $260


if the first game loses, u can take the $100 you hadnt bet yet and put it on Lakers +4 anyways...if the first game DOES hit, then you're basically getting lakers +4 at 1.60 to 1 odds...and you're only risking 100 if you lose

just a suggestion for all those on here, something i'm testing out this season
 
renew orleans said:
GL with your plays tonight.
On the under 191.5 with you.
did it really open up at +8 bulls?

it sure did! The Total was still up and about but i saw Bulls +8 and slowly move down
 
Also, can we get Phillyroom to CTG somehow? I posted a link here in his thread but it quickly got deleted and sent me to the Penalty Box or w/e :an_roll_laugh:
 
Captain Slap A Hoe said:
rj, I know you might not like this suggestion...but I'm just throwing it out there for future bets

If you're gonna bet say 2 games that proceed each other (like tonight bulls game will be over before lakers starts) and you're gonna put 100 on each spread/total, you should probably parlay them for $100

think of it like this

you're gonna play both either way, so just parlay them like this...

Bulls Under 189
Lakers +4

$100 to win $260


if the first game loses, u can take the $100 you hadnt bet yet and put it on Lakers +4 anyways...if the first game DOES hit, then you're basically getting lakers +4 at 1.60 to 1 odds...and you're only risking 100 if you lose

just a suggestion for all those on here, something i'm testing out this season

only problem here captain is that if he wins the first and loses the second, he is out $100 for the parlay. his way he would only be out 10 bucks. i know he can make more with the parlay, but it is safer playing single bets

:shake:
 
Captain Slap A Hoe said:
rj, I know you might not like this suggestion...but I'm just throwing it out there for future bets

If you're gonna bet say 2 games that proceed each other (like tonight bulls game will be over before lakers starts) and you're gonna put 100 on each spread/total, you should probably parlay them for $100

think of it like this

you're gonna play both either way, so just parlay them like this...

Bulls Under 189
Lakers +4

$100 to win $260


if the first game loses, u can take the $100 you hadnt bet yet and put it on Lakers +4 anyways...if the first game DOES hit, then you're basically getting lakers +4 at 1.60 to 1 odds...and you're only risking 100 if you lose

just a suggestion for all those on here, something i'm testing out this season
Well, what if the first wins and the second loses ?....well then you lost a 100...
Whereas if you've put a 100 on both, in that case you get you're money back minus the juice.
 
hey Big Al, i got the chi/mia under at 192.5. whatcha think about a middle now that its at 186.5 (betcris)
 
yea, that really is unfortunate for everyone on the lakers... I'm glad I didn't play the game until finding out about kobe because there was just too much uncertainty in the game.
 
Last 2 days he was a go. Makes me feel weird he went from "questionable to doubtful" to A go" to Out just like that. Strange

This is my way of hdging off this game a bit. No Kobe means no 100 points for Lakers. If they bust over 100 then my hats off and they may cover my intial spread then.


Lakers Team Total UNDER 101-5 -129 (2 UNITS)

Lets see what happens. Maybe a miracle occurs and all plays win.
 
1st half thoughts and a 2nd half play.

Well, the hedge of Lakers Under isn't looking too good. By watching the first half I have detremined a few things..

-Lakers play hard and unselfish
-Suns are in midseason form and may be scarier than last season
-Man, can Bynum pass the ball. He looks great
-Suns defense hasn't improved at all. It may have regressed

With that said

Over 104 +113

Lets see what we can salvage from this game. Maybe young Lakers can stay in it and build confidence towards 4th qtr.
 
I took Over TX. I just think the pace and defense both ways dictates it. Now, if it goes under I almost for sure hit on my Lakers team total. I don't think team total hits. I see 50-55 this half for Lakers. I think they will be around at end now though. I like what I see. Make shots and they will be right there.

I liked Over on this game as a lean and that should hit.
 
already on the lakers +4.5, but the way they proved they can play w/out mamba makes me like them in the 2h, suggestions?
 
KK, I hope the play cashes and then some. I would like to get outta this night alive after KB24 decided to rest his pussy tonight.

Your bet is calling for under double digits. If they don't have droughts and play team ball they can be right there indeed.
 
-Lakers play hard and unselfish
-Suns are in midseason form and may be scarier than last season
-Man, can Bynum pass the ball. He looks great
-Suns defense hasn't improved at all. It may have regressed

Saw alot of the same shit...

The thing that jumps out from last year differently though is the depth...which w/ that pace is going to be deadly for second halfs against em I'd say...Barbosa and Amare off the Bench isn't fair...

LAL couldn't hit a free throw for shit...which may hurt the cover down the stretch...

I thought LAL passed it better than last year though...the ball movement was much better...

Bynum's upside is unlimited it appears.
 
42 so far in thrid..and most importantly the Lakers are up..

A lakers win and hitting over in secondc half would be sweet
 
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