Opening Night Discussion

[JPicks]

What can I say? It's my Christmas. Opening night of the baseball season. Short NBA card tonight so I'm going to take a bit of time to break down the St. Louis Cardinals (Carpenter) vs N.Y. Mets (Glavine). I figure if I'm going to break it down I might as well throw all the info into a thread to hopefully save some others time. Here we go.....


Chris Carpenter Splits:

Last 3 Years:
Last Year:

@ Home 23-10 2.38 ERA .226 BAA 288/70 K/BB
@ The New Busch 8-4 1.82 ERA .214 BAA 91/22 K/BB

April Stats 8-3 3.23 ERA .246 BAA 76/23 K/BB
April Stats 3-1 1.80 ERA .235 BAA 31/7 K/BB

vs NYM 2006 Postseason both at Shea
0-1 11 INN 13 Hits 7 Runs 5/4 K/BB

vs NYM One Start September 8th at Busch
1-0 0.00 ERA 7 INN 3 Hits 1 BB 7 K's .130 BAA

vs. NYM Batters

Jose Reyes 5/8 .625 AVG 1 2B 1 HR 3 Singles 0/0 K/BB
Lo Duca 2/11 .182 AVG 1 2B 1/0 K/BB
Beltran 5/24 .208 AVG 2 HR 5/2 K/BB
Delgado 4/9 .444 AVG 1 2B 2 HR 1/0 K/BB
Wright 1/7 .143 AVG 4K/2BB
Alou 8/26 .308 AVG 1 2B 1 HR 4/2 K/BB
Green 3/13 .231 AVG 5/2 K/BB
Valentin 1/20 .050 AVG 5/4 K/BB
Glavine is actually 2/2 with a 2B and 3RBI's

Carp started opening day last year and was spotted a 10-0 lead and eventually got shaky in the 6th with a 13-2 lead and was pulled. He gave up 9 hits and 4 ER's in 5 innings of work. I don't think much of it though as he wasn't wild, walking only one.

In 2006 Carpenter opened the season at Houston and pitched well going 7 innings while giving up 4 hits and 1 ER. He finished the day with 0BB and 2K's.

The bullpen situation in St. Louis really only has one question. Who's setting up for Izzy? At the moment it looks like Brad Thompson will get the first opportunity. Russ Springer is another canidate. Hard to have much of a feel for bullpens this time of the year. A guy like Rincon may end up waived by Sunday so it's difficult to say how the pen will shake out. The loss of Josh Kinney (Tommy John) and Braden Looper (starting) will certainly subtract from the depth.


Tom Glavine Splits:

Road 7-4 4.72 ERA .277 BAA 57/38 K/BB
Road L3 Years 19-20 4.28 ERA .278 BAA 155/105 K/BB

April Stats:
Last year: 3-2 2.29 ERA .215 BAA 31/13 K/BB
Last 3 years: 7-6 2.99 ERA .240 BAA 50/36 K/BB


Important to note that Glavine only allowed leftys to hit .200 on him last year with only 3 homers and 12 extra base hits in 170 ABs. It looks right now as if the Cards will only have Chris Duncan and possibly Adam Kennedy as left handed bats in the lineup.

Projected Cards Lineup:

Eckstein 0 for 4 lifetime
Duncan No Plate Apperances
Puroids 9 for 20 .450 AVG No Homers Pujols is great at taking Glavine the other way for singles when I've seem them match up.
Rolen 19 for 53 .358 AVG 2 HR and a 7/14 K/BB
Taguchi 1 for 9 .111 AVG
Wilson 9 for 44 .205 AVG 1 HR 10/4 K/BB
Molina 1 for 2 .500 AVG
Kennedy No Plate Apperances which I don't really believe.


Glavine will be making his 8th opening day start of his career. Not sure of hs career #'s on opening day and don't really care that much. He pitched well against the Nationals last year. I'm guessing the Mets are expecting 6 innings from Glavine.

The Mets Bullpen is a strong point. At this point, the bullpen has three left-handed members -- Billy Wagner, Scott Schoeneweis and Pedro Feliciano -- and right-hander Aaron Heilman. And there was every indication Saturday and again Wednesday that rookie Joe Smith and veteran Aaron Sele, both right-handed, had secured positions in the 'pen (taken from MLB.com) However in the same article their are comments of uncertainty with the pen.


Going to have to cut this short as I've got to run. I'll be back with some comments/thoughts later. Right now I've got to lean towards the Cards at home.

The weather calls for 72 and mostly sunny in St. Louis on Sunday. Let's get the season started fellas.

 

[E.T.G.]

Great info..

As of right now I lean w/ the home team as well.

 

[SportsNut]

way to scratch that itch! I was thinking about taking NYM. Fade the Champs in the opener , fade Carpeneter who didnt pitch especially well vs NYM in the playoffs and just like DaBulls the Mets have revenge! Just a thought or two that passed my mid was hoping it would be more like -160...lots a work to do although you made my life easier

 

[JPicks]

I thought a bit about the revenge angle, but I'm still uncertain of how much it'll affect the game. The only other recent matcup on opening day of NLCS participants was St. Louis/Houston on opening day '05. The Cards (Carpenter) beat the Astros (Oswalt) 7-3 after winning the '04 Championship series.

I will agree that the Mets certainly had Carpenter's # last year during the playoffs. Reyes really seems to enjoy facing Carpenter and if he's on base all game it's going to be a great benefit for the Mets.

I really want to see what kind of props/alternate bets are available for the game. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Mets get on the board in the top of the 1st.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

I really dont wanna get started betting baseball. But we will see.

I like the Mets here.

 

[brewer]

revenge for mets. i like the mets at + money here. dont know if that good or bad for those of you who like the mets

if my memory serves me the mets were a pretty good road team so that may offset the cards home venue some.

 

[SportsNut]

I think its different then the '05 situation though. I am only throwing this out there for discussional purposes sort of my psychological angle for the game. Like tonite I just thought Silva without pressure would go out an pitch well and he threw 5 scoreless after a 11 ERA spring. Anyway looking for a reason why NY would have the edge in this game basically. As far as price goes -140 for Carpenter is cheap as hell. The guy was awesome at home last season and STL has probably won 75% of his starts. So why so cheap? NY didnt exactly improve.

<LI class=more>Mets are 11-23 in the last 34 meetings. <LI class=more>Mets are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in St. Louis.<LI class=more>Cardinals are 38-13 in Carpenter's last 51 home starts. <LI class=more>Cardinals are 72-26 in Carpenter's last 98 starts.<LI class=more>Cardinals are 43-16 in Carpenter's last 59 starts as a favorite.<LI class=morehot>Cardinals are 28-6 in Carpenter's last 34 starts during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Cardinals are 25-6 in Carpenter's last 31 starts as a home favorite.<LI class=more>Mets are 12-5 in Glavine's last 17 road starts. <LI class=more>Mets are 36-17 in Glavine's last 53 starts.<LI class=more>Mets are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a right-handed starter.
The only quirky trend edge they have is games on Sunday 6-0 for NYM last 6 Glavine and the reverse for STL 1-5.

Right now there seems to be only 1 reason why STL would lose on Opening Nite.....there bats just have not spoken during the Spring. No one is hitting the ball exceptionally well. Glavine started real fast last season in April and May. Also his road splits dont telll the true tale cause he was very good about 70% of the time it was the instinces he wasnt that did damage to his numbers...Glavine at nite is a plus.....

Now I remembered something about STL really struggling vs LHP last season (Duncan is LHP) and I checked that out. Unofficially during the reg season had them at 24-34 vs LHP but at one point 10-7 so 14-27 last 41 games vs LH.......that could be the darkhorse factor.....

So could see me with an UNDER and NYM play....

Just thinking about every angle. On the surface STL at home with Carpenter laying only -140 seems to say STL but I thought it was way to cheap and wonder why...just debate material from me...STL vs LHP coul dbe real interesting (Kennedy added to the mix as well)

 

[SportsNut]

I think its different then the '05 situation though. I am only throwing this out there for discussional purposes sort of my psychological angle for the game. Like tonite I just thought Silva without pressure would go out an pitch well and he threw 5 scoreless after a 11 ERA spring. Anyway looking for a reason why NY would have the edge in this game basically. As far as price goes -140 for Carpenter is cheap as hell. The guy was awesome at home last season and STL has probably won 75% of his starts. So why so cheap? NY didnt exactly improve.

Mets are 11-23 in the last 34 meetings.
Mets are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in St. Louis.
Cardinals are 38-13 in Carpenter's last 51 home starts.
Cardinals are 72-26 in Carpenter's last 98 starts.
Cardinals are 43-16 in Carpenter's last 59 starts as a favorite.
Cardinals are 28-6 in Carpenter's last 34 starts during game 1 of a series. Cardinals are 25-6 in Carpenter's last 31 starts as a home favorite.
Mets are 12-5 in Glavine's last 17 road starts.
Mets are 36-17 in Glavine's last 53 starts.
Mets are 37-16 in their last 53 games vs. a right-handed starter.

The only quirky trend edge they have is games on Sunday 6-0 for NYM last 6 Glavine and the reverse for STL 1-5.

Right now there seems to be only 1 reason why STL would lose on Opening Nite.....there bats just have not spoken during the Spring. No one is hitting the ball exceptionally well. Glavine started real fast last season in April and May. Also his road splits dont telll the true tale cause he was very good about 70% of the time it was the instinces he wasnt that did damage to his numbers...Glavine at nite is a plus.....

Now I remembered something about STL really struggling vs LHP last season (Duncan is LH and he was a huge key for them 2nd H) and I checked that out. Unofficially during the reg season had them at 24-34 vs LHP but at one point 10-7 so 14-27 last 41 games vs LH.......that could be the darkhorse factor.....since Tom terrific is LH

So could see me with an UNDER and NYM play....since Carpenter looks sharp so far....

Just thinking about every angle. On the surface STL at home with Carpenter laying only -140 seems to scream STL but I thought it was way to cheap and wonder why...just debate material from me...STL vs LHP could be real interesting angle to explore(Kennedy added to the mix as well)

 

[thecakeoff]

im playing NYM for the reasons SportsNut stated i dont know shit about baseball so this year is going to be a learning experience hopefully i do well in this girls game

 

[Popcorn Light]

Enjoy the game tonight and best of luck this season!!!

 

[JPicks]

Thanks to all for the great input.

Don't really like the movement of the O/U and it seems that the wind is blowing out to left a bit, but still rolling with the under. Carpenter has had great success keeping the ball on the ground during ST and I think it'll help him with the wind blowing out.

Under 8 Even

And a little prop play for fun...

No Home Runs tonight Pays 4 to 1.

All plays are 1 Unit unless otherwise noted.

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL JPicks, like the plays and on the under

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Renew.

Got quite lucky tonight with Beltran's home run going foul and another two balls off the fence. Probably be the last 4 to 1 prop I'll play or hit for awhile.

2-0 +5 Units.