OPENING DAY , Monday April 6th

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
OPENING DAY 2009

Plays :
SUN:
Phillies -130 {$120}
-1.5 Runs +160 {$40}
Parlay : Over 8.5 -105 & Philly -130 {$50}
RHE : Over 27.5 -105 {LEAN}
-246

Monday :
 
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I'll do my best to post every play I make as in baseball its much easier and I will try to cut down on my amount of plays anyway ...

Thoughts and teams of interest on Monday :

Reds ML , 1st 5 inn ML or +1.5 RL - ????????

- Think Johan Santana typically more of a slow starter when looking at him big picture . All baseball guru's know he is amazing post All Star break in his career so with that in mind thats why will label him a slow starter even though technically he isnt . With the WBC though I think those SP who got more work for that will start fast but probably hit a wall in May at some point . Mostly because of the change in offseason routine which they need to do to get ready faster . Anyway bottomline is I think Johan is in fine form at the moment . The "knock" is that he struggled vs Cincy last year to a degree . Just remember I am applying these words to probably the best SP in the game so dont take them so literal . He pitched @ Shea and @ Great American and those games saw 20 runs both times. Big keys for him Phillips and Encarnacion in the middle . 2 starts he went 10 inn allowed 16 hits and 3hrs and didnt last the 5th @ Cincy ..

Cincy at Home (always check the stats I post because the majority are things I find and therefore count myself and mistakes can be made) .....

vs LHSP 16-8 SU @ HOME only and 6-2 SU as Home dog vs LHSP ..
The 2 losses as home pups early on in April when Hamels beat them in a day game 5-3 and 10-8 these NYMets when Cordero blew an 8-6 lead when Johan opposed Cueto and lost 10-8 . Now Reds had 16 home wins vs LHSP and only allowed more then 3 runs in those wins on 3 occassions ....4runs vs Tribe and Cliff Lee in a 6-4 win , 8-6 win vs Gorzelanny with Fogg , So when they win allow 3runs or less 13 times!

Harang lost some weight (dudes like 6'8 ) coming into camp after a stough season. Many point to Dusty's decision to use him in LONG relief after starting already in the series , it was that Sunday marathon game from what I recall...anyway he went DOWNHILL after that game you can easily identify the relief outing when looking at his game log. In SPRING TRAINING he pitched 6 no hit innings against Pitt which he followed up with a solid 6 inn start vs the NYY starting lineup where he went 6 inn 4h 4r 2 er and asssume he last start was vs minor leaguers cause I couldnt find it ..........Mets also didnt seem him since 2007 a plus for the pitcher ...Harangs ERA was 3.50 entering the relief app and 3.32 after it and finished at 4.78 for the season. However he was smoked for 16 runs in his 1st 2 starts off the DL and was fine after that reintroduction IMO....he also went about 105 pitches vs the Yanks so is stretched out .

Mets have some Monday blues I think dropping 12 of their last 16 and going 12-19 last 2 seasons ....also you wonder if both NY teams are a tad flat in a sense since they both opened new ballparks and had their opening days in a sense already ....Nets were only 41-40 away and believe 26-30 away vs RHSP

So the under could be worth looking at especially 1st 5 Innings ....

Reds +1.5 RL -120 and Reds +140 or better ...

More to follow

 
Thanks BC and DMoney . Wish you guys Good Luck this season !!!!

Strong Leans :
Reds ML and /or +1.5 RL- (high winds possibly?)
Over 7.5 Zona / Col ( Zona -1.5 RL possibly as well): The weather / air could be of interest to me since the ball has really been flying so far out in Zona along with some wind ..Really neither SP has success vs the opponent but COL was 3-15 last season vs Zona and Cook is just 2-8 L10 vs Zona . In the past 9 meetings he best outing was allowing 3 runs in 6.1 ( 6inn a few times) ..he is 3-1-1over L5 @ Zona ...Webb was 3-0 over at home vs COL and 4-0 Over all season but only 4-2 over L 6 recent starts at home vs COL and Holliday is now gone ...anyway last 9 webb starts vs COL the Rockies managed 4 or 5 runs in 6 of them with the other 3 starts just 2 ( I mean full game not specifically off Webb) ...both pens but especially Zona could be worse off .....Webb was 11-5 over at home last year while Cook had a 1.43 WHIP...which Snyder 12/21and Tracey own Aaron Cook to date ..and while Cook is a sinkerballer 96Ks in 210+ innings is bad and sad....

Of Interest :
Tribe ML and Over : Lee has been terrible this spring but attributing it to the Arizona weather and air as many games have been insane out there . Still he is 4-0-1 over in his 5 career starts in Texas while Millwood is 2-1 over in 3 career home starts vs Cle in Texas.....Rangers worst showing vs Lee has been 5 and 6 runs (the entire game I mean)...think Tex was 14-12 at home vs LHSP but the wins almost always unders and the losses almost always overs ...CLE to boot did well in game1s (of course they did with Lee and CC) and on Mondays ....wind ?? one thing I recently realized CLE is a strong under TEAM in day games like 59-28 past 2 seasons
RedSox ML : Boston season ended with a 3-1 loss @ TB after rallying back form 2-0 , Shields has struggled somewhat vs Boston like 2-8 L10 , Beckett has NOT been tough at Fenway except has been vs TB with 4 dazzling starts vs them last year plus another 2 soldi ones and just one dud .....still TB 11-40 L51 meetings @ Fenway ...on the surface the under looks good but rain and winds expected at Fenway so that is a curveball...Also Shields workedmostly vs minor leaguers and his last outing was terrible which again is not uncommon but concerning when a guy had just 6 innings vs major leaguers then gets hit up for 11 runs and 3 Hrs in 4+ inn vs Minny ....
Yankees ML , Orioles TT under and maybe under 8.5 runs: I love CHALK ! Just kidding ...Orioles though in day games last 2 years are 27-60 and 35-59 vs LHSP ! Enter CC Sabathia ! Usually Balt plays Over vs LHSP at 58-31-5 but think its mainly a pitching thing causing that ....NYY is 10-4 laying -175 or better past 2 seasons...Guthrie is kinda a mess because of the WBC throwing his routine up in the air and hasnt looked good in his starts since but you dont know if he was tinkering but would guess his pitch limit is not that high ...Guthrie has been real solid vs NYY at Camden winning 3-2 , 4-2 , losing 4-2 and 5-3 .....its been awhile for CC which should be a plus for him ...

CC Sabathia (L) Previous Starts vs. Baltimore

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/06/09</TD><TD class=datacell>@ BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>0-0</TD><TD class=datacell>-/-</TD><TD class=datacell>S </TD><TD class=datacell>0.0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/06/07</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) @ BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>9-6</TD><TD class=datacell>-153/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>9</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>113 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/07/06</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>9-0</TD><TD class=datacell>-173/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/P</TD><TD class=datacell>9.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>118 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.46</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>08/21/05</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-137/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>8.0</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>107 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.57</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>07/01/05</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) @ BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>3-1</TD><TD class=datacell>100/9</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>104 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.6 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.36</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/01/04</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>3-2</TD><TD class=datacell>-145/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>85 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.43</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/17/03</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>4-6</TD><TD class=datacell>-135/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>98 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.11</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>03/31/03</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) @ BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>5-6</TD><TD class=datacell>115/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>94 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.31</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/19/01</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) @ BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>11-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-150/10.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>94 </TD><TD class=datacell>15.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.71</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/08/01</TD><TD class=datacell>(CLE) BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>4-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-190/11</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>103 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.33</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

CC has been death on LH the past 2 seasons but very solid in day games the ast 3 -4 years ....Guthrie was medicore in day games last year but very solid in 2007 but @ Camden seemingly besides vs NYY he has been much better away.....

Under 8 Florida : At 1st thought Wash presented some value but they have so many RHBs and Nats were 11-35 away with an 8 or 8.5 total past 2 seasons!! Unders have gone 52-34 in Nats day games last 2 seasons ......now FLA is 80-52 over l2 seasons vs divisional opponents and 19-9 over at home with 8 or 8.5totals...thing is LHSP do well @ FLA as Odalis Perez went 2-0 UNDER in his 2 starts and I know Moyer and the nets guys loved pitching @ ro Player and Hamels was inconsitent but had some good performances as well ....even one is on Nolasco's knob and he is real good but suddenly not a hidden treasure anymore..think Nats 5-16 L21 @ FLA...Fla 10-9 at home vs LHSP and after 3 overs to start the season mostly due to be outsocred 20-2 in the 2 losses to the Mets they went 12-3-1 UNDER L16 athome vs a LH and have neverfaced Lannan strangely .and Lannan has been on point this spring..also Lannan was very solid on the road last season and think he had that huge trend of staying under 1st 5 innings away...

Under 8 Pitt maybe 1st 5 inn ....Maholm vs Wainright what more to say

SD ML maybe under 1st 5 : Peavy has been lights out since the end of the WBC thanks partially to his new found cutter ....Kuroda has looked solid but last year was medicore vs SD and probably because they are so LH...Peavy is 13-1 lifetimevs LAD , he had a 1.74 ERA , .185 BAA and 0.95 WHIP @ Petco last year and if the cutter is on then his weakness vs LHB could be erased because he was death to RHs last year , only 7-7 at home but 11-3 under ! EVen Kuroda is 11-5 under away last year and just 6-11 SU....SD is 8-0 L8 at home vs LAD with Peavy starting

Havent finished the last 4 games but Seattle with King Felix and Houston ML seem interesting:cheers:
 
BOL SN,
Best of luck this season. I'm taking it slow up to this point but glad to see you here for opening day
 
best of luck nut

great thread.


Interesting with shields is that he is so much better at home than away but at the same time is so much better in the day compared to night. one of those will be wrong today.
 
gl SN

Reds usually start out pretty nice at the beginning of the season. Their play usually goes down after that, hopefully not this year though! I always read your thoughts, as you are one of the best around. Just wanted to give you some props, and tell you thanks for the hard work.

gl with all your plays, and have a profitable season bro.
 
GL Nut. Nasty weather in Cincy today. Wind out to right center 10-20 mph, 29 degree wind chill, 60% showers, and RH 89%. Tough to not hit the under in those conditions, but seems already shaded down and the conditions probly offset the wind a bit.
 
Thanks everyone !

Panos , gsro , Dbb4L, Manchester , hile , chance , Vegaskyle , buckeyeburritos, vikingsguy ....have a great , fun and profitable season ...and please feel free to throw out all your ideas and thoughts always love to read them and trust me better to having opposing opinions(if we differ) discussed then kept under wraps ...


Quick responses..

Leaning 1st 5 under but the wind worries me obviously ....so just small or pass ...like you said everything seems to me in the line already ..have to check when the last time if ever there was a 7.5 @ Cincy ...

fwiw buckeye really love the Reds this season but only wish they did a tad better then Alex Gonzalez at SS but understand the defense aspect....Bruce and Votto need to continue progress and Encarnacion needs to more then that duo ..absolutely love Dickerson but dont like the Taveras move much either but again understand it .....Owings huge sleeper at #5 and have a feeling Arroyo is not around whether its the carpel tunnel or a trade and Bailey gets his chance ...

about James Shields just going off the top of my head no stats but believe his day stats were tremendous because most of those were home day games ...he had some tremendous day games at Trop last year as did most of the staff from what I recall...

hey chance , love the AL EAST this year and Boston solid as always...BOL bro and dont be a stranger ..

and you over seas guys ...gsro , panos , manchester ...have a great season especially ...:cheers:
 
Monday 's Plays

1 pm:
Reds ML +140 {80}
+1.5 RL -122.50(avg) {120}
1st 5 inn Under 4 -115 {40}
2 pm:
Indians -120 {80}
RHE Prop Under 30 -115 {40}
Under 5.5 -115 1st 5 Inn {40}
1st Score of Game Cleveland -165 {80}
4 team parlay : Yankees , Indians , Padres , and Astros {20/180}

Night :
Mariners +120 {80}


good luck
 
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Thanks SHortline - Good Luck today ...:cheers:

Try and do my best to keep all my plays in the above window . As long as my computer / wireless access continue to cooperate and keep any thoughts in seperate windows....

Cle @ Texas :
1st thought was Texas and over because of Lee's Spring Training . Then remembering that it was CLE 1st time in Arizona for Spring Training and how its essentially like Coors Fields was back in the day pre-humidor ....anyway tough to grade any SP off Cactus League play imo .....then the brisk weather in Texas should help both SP some and each pen is decent and probably fairly good if they avoid injuries ...

So Texas when it wins plays mostly under at home vs LHSP and when it loses typically over but that was due IMO to the fact alot of their losses vs LHSP showed them to allow 10 runs+ in lopsided games .....also interesting was Texas in 5 starts vs Lee / CLe had scored at leats5 runs each time and was 4-0-1 over ....however CLE never played @ Texas in April so that is a HUGE FACTOR IMO ....

Last year in Texas 1st Home stand they played 3 unders vs Balt to open the season , played 2 of 3 unders vs Tor and then went 1-0-1 over vs LAA but it was because the allowed 7 runs in each game ......they scored 4 runs or less in 7 of the 8 games and the exception they scored 5 runs ...

So bottomline is early on look for unders @ Texas IMO as the weather is definetly factor .....

today think they could have opened this line at 10 but they started 9.5 and that seems like an indication they didnt mind having over money IMO ...

:cheers:
 
thanks for your thoughts nut. i know you are busy and don't have time to post all the time but it surely helps everyone. it isnt bad getting your thoughts on "paper" either.

I'm on Cincy ML and +1.5 with ya for the early game.

I will be on ari/col over 7.5 - I like arizona to win but i will just stick with the over and root for both teams.

The only other game i've partly capped is the yank game and we disagree here. i definately like balt +1.5 and i might even try the ML. i like the over as well.

Be back with the other afternoon games. GL
 
was/fla : very similiar thoughts about this one. likewise, i could not take washington due to what you said and at the end of the ST washington couldn't hit a lick. i don't think florida is gonna be banging runs this year and i like the under even though i don't trust these pens much at all.
 
Just thought I would mention 1 thing. I understand your reasons for liking Peavy but with a team spending 40 million of which 30% goes to Peavy just can not bet on them laying odds. The team is not acceptable.
 
New plays :

Over 7.5 -122.50 (avg) Backs (160)
Padres -130 (120)
Nats ML +140 , 1st 5 inn ML and +1.5 RL -160 (40each)
Over 8.5 -115 FLorida (80)
Under 7.5 STL (40)
Yankees -1.5 RL -125 (40) homer play

1st score Rockies -125 (40)
1st INN Yes there will be a score @ Zona +110 (40)
1st to score Cardinals -115 (40)
RHE Over 25.5 -105 Arizona (40)

be back just short on time at the moment ...:cheers:
 
tuck321 said:
Just thought I would mention 1 thing. I understand your reasons for liking Peavy but with a team spending 40 million of which 30% goes to Peavy just can not bet on them laying odds. The team is not acceptable.
Click to expand...

I hear ya bro. Team really isnt any different then last year though and I am doing it because they are playing public darling LAD .....LAD poor on the road even with Manny and he still says his swing not 100% despite good ST stats and Peavy since coming back has been lights out ...

all in all I agree with your comment though

:cheers:
 
I like the peavy play, im also pretty damn interested in the under. i think peavy dominates at good ol petco.

I'm also leaning cubs and possibly under but that line movement is pretty rough for cub backers.
 
pressed for time still...

Padres -130 (120)
1st 5 Inn SD -130 (40)
Under 6.5 +105 (40)
1st 5 inn under 3.5 +100 (40)
TT Under LA 3 runs +100 (40)

Cubs -110 (40) (changed my mind here)

Mariners +120 (80) , +1.5 RL -175 (80)
1st 5 inn SEA (40)
1st to score SEA -125 (40)

A's +115 (120)
+1.5 RL -190 (40)
1st 5 inn Oak +120 (40)
TT under 4 runs LAA +100 (40):cheers:
 
o man i can't even explain how much i hate my life. i had everything on under 7.5 in that stl. 2 outs 0-2 count on jack wilson and he hits a double. not to mention earlier in the game when they walked maholm to load the bases that led to the first two runs. pittsburgh should not have scored at all. i fuckin lost everything.
 
i know you love the yanks, but if you backtrack the last 3-4 years for april, you'll find that betting against them has been profitable. they have been under .500 for the 1st month for the past few years. playing dogs at plus money would be the way to go....:shake:
 
Recap:
@Night: +10
Padres -130 (120) -$156
1st 5 Inn SD -130(40) -$52
Under 6.5 +105 (40) +42
1st 5 inn under 3.5 +100 (40) $-40
TT Under LA 3 runs +100 (40) $-40
Cubs -110 (40) +$40

Over 7.5 -105 Jays {40} +40

Mariners +120 (80) , +1.5 RL -175 (80) +176
1st 5 inn SEA +120 (40) +$40
1st to score SEA -125 (40) +$40
A's +115 (120) pending
+1.5 RL -190 (40) pending
1st 5 inn Oak +120 (80) -$80
TT under 4 runs LAA +100 (40)pending


Afternoon- +$76
Over 7.5 -122.50 (avg) Backs (160) $+160
Nats ML +140 , 1st 5 inn ML and +1.5 RL -160 (40each) -$144
Over 8.5 -115 FLorida (80) +$80
Under 7.5 STL (40) -$44
Yankees -1.5 RL -125 (40) -$50
1st score Rockies -125 (40) -50
1st INN Yes there will be a score @ Zona +110 (40) +44
1st to score Cardinals -115 (40) +$40
RHE Over 25.5 -105 Arizona (40) +$40

Early afternoon:
@1 pm: +80
Reds ML +140 {80} -$80
+1.5 RL -122.50(avg) {120} +120
1st 5 inn Under 4 -115 {40} +40
@2 pm: -294
Indians -120 {80} -$96
RHE Prop Under 30 -115 {40} PUSH
Under 5.5 -115 1st 5 Inn {40} -$46
1st Score of Game Cleveland -165 {80} -132
4 team parlay : Yankees , Indians , Padres , and Astros {20/180} -20

tbone:
absolutely agree that it was a foolish play today..just couldnt resist but should have play Balt +1.5 RL and hoped for a 1 run Yankee run. It was Balt terrible record vs LH and in day games that forced me to do it . I think the last few years is irrelevant though because this is such a different team ...Giambi was never an April hitter ( I know Tex hasnt either )and Abreu was always a slow starter as well . Cano has been a huge 2nd H player and lets see if he matured . Plus every year the SPs had injuries and this minus ARod is the best shape we have been in so far ...Jeter had a terible April few years back and is out to prove himself as well ...big thing I think is this is our best team hands down the last 5 years and everyone including NY beat writers is saying they are a 3rd place team ...who knows though but valid point ...:cheers:

jimbo-
sucked for sure saw it unfold as I was walking out the door but truth is the only way we should have played that UND was 1st 5 inn because neither pen is very good and Motte never closed a ML game before ....if Mariano Rivera had blown the game that is truly painful but when a youngster fucks up with no experience its almost expected IMO...dont let it get at ya that much ...painful ...yes...great play looking back ? it had it concerns IMO....
:cheers:


nawlins - thanks bro , will chat soon ..:cheers:

Tuck -
Just wanted to say you were absolutely right with SD. I was blinded by the fact I thought LAD was a "popular" underdog but they really werent . Truth is you were dead on SD as chalk even with Peavy vs good teams is a mirage at best this game should have been -110 .......LESSON learned ...thank you for the post ..:cheers:

TimH -
thanks bro , naturally wish you a great 2009 as well...:cheers:

EStreet -
Thanks , hope to see you around as well . Though I understand the situation . Hope you have a great and very profitable 2009 season as well..

:cheers:



 
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i agree but im not offered 1st 5 lines. this oakland win would make up for a lot. i will try to post my early leans for tomorrow.
 
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