Ole Miss vs Mississippi State: College Football Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Odds
Oddsmakers have Mississippi State favored by a field goal.
In terms of record, the Bulldogs have more to play for as they need a win to become bowl eligible. In contrast, Ole Miss cannot reach six wins.
But throw out win-loss records because the Rebels would love to ruin their rivals’ season. This rivalry runs deep with both sides sharing enmity towards the other.
In this series, the road team has won four in a row. Also note that Ole Miss is enjoying a 5-1-1 ATS run versus SEC opponents
Mississippi State’s Problem On Defense
The offseason departure of seven defensive starters has hit Miss State’s run defense especially hard.
Whereas it ranked third nationally last year in allowing 96.7 run yards per game, it currently ranks 63rd in the category, allowing 161.9 rush yards per game.
In particular, the Bulldogs miss Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. Without them, the Bulldogs lack the personnel on the defensive line to penetrate into the backfield and be disruptive.
Hence, their defensive line now ranks 80th in opportunity rate and 104th in stuff rate, meaning that opposing offensive lines are having an easy time opening up holes for their ball-carrier who is rarely unable to move the ball forward.
SEC Opponents Are Punishing Mississippi State
SEC squads are enjoying betting success against Mississippi State. Largely due to the latter’s problems in run defense, Miss State is on a 1-5 ATS run against SEC teams.
Let’s look at common opponents: against Miss State, Texas A&M ran for 207 yards on 5.3 YPC and four rushing touchdowns. Rakeem Boyd of Arkansas ran for 104 yards on only 11 carries. Auburn accrued 217 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC.
In contrast, against Ole Miss, the Aggies managed 165 yards on 4.3 YPC, Rakeem Boyd produced 67 yards on 17 carries, and Auburn ran for 167 yards on 3.6 YPC.
Ole Miss’ significant advantage is in its stronger run defense. The Rebels rank 36th in opposing rush yards per game and rank 50 spots ahead of Miss State in opposing YPC (Ole Miss allows 4.0 YPC, Miss State 4.8).
This statistical disparity is decisive because both teams are run-first — Ole Miss ranks 16th in run play frequency while the Bulldogs rank 21st.
Don’t Fail To Appreciate Ole Miss’ Running Game
I don’t think people know how special Mississippi’s ball-carriers are.
Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is primarily a running quarterback who leads his team in carries.
He’s 11 rushing yards away from becoming the fifth SEC quarterback to run for 1,000 yards in a season, joining the company of Cam Newton, Nick Marshall, Nick Fitzgerald, and Johnny Manziel.
Plumlee is also unique because he leads the SEC in rush yards per game — he averages 126.5, which is 2.8 YPC more than Georgia star De’Andre Swift.
Historically, Plumlee is special moreover because he’s the first quarterback since Vince Young to run for 200 yards against the number 1 team in the nation and the first to amass 200 rushing yards against LSU since Newton in 2010.
Given his high recruiting ranking as a four-star, Plumlee’s success should come as no surprise. Plus, offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez loves to employ his sort of skill set — this was evident when he was at West Virginia with Pat White.
Plumlee enjoys elite speed with a 4.42 40. Rodriguez is adept at scheming Plumlee into a good spot, for example by drawing defenders away from the middle of the field to create more room for Plumlee.
He also employs fake tosses to his running back and other bits of deception. He just needs a little bit of space and a little bit of blocking to gash an opposing defense.
Ole Miss Running Backs
Speed does not belong to Plumlee alone. Also look for Jerrion Ealy, who’s averaging 7.7 YPC against SEC opponents on 58 carries.
Ealy runs a 4.48 and is tough to bring down in open space because of his fluidity in changing directions, his juke, and his stiff arm. He’s always primed for a big play and he’s a threat out of the backfield.
Snoop Conner is another big-play threat. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC against conference opponents.
With this stacked talent, Ole Miss averaged 223 rush yards against Auburn, Alabama, and LSU.
Conclusion
I don’t think Ole Miss ball-carriers get nearly the attention that they deserve. They are stacked, talented, and often electric. They will thrive against Mississippi State’s emaciated and vulnerable run defense.
Historical trends — both in recent history against SEC opponents and in the series — further support an NCAAF Pick on Ole Miss. Grab the +3 while it’s still available.
Best Bet: Rebels +3 at -115 odds with Bovada and Rebels ML at +130 odds with 5Dimes
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State
Thursday, November 28, 2019 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field
Odds
Oddsmakers have Mississippi State favored by a field goal.
In terms of record, the Bulldogs have more to play for as they need a win to become bowl eligible. In contrast, Ole Miss cannot reach six wins.
But throw out win-loss records because the Rebels would love to ruin their rivals’ season. This rivalry runs deep with both sides sharing enmity towards the other.
In this series, the road team has won four in a row. Also note that Ole Miss is enjoying a 5-1-1 ATS run versus SEC opponents
Mississippi State’s Problem On Defense
The offseason departure of seven defensive starters has hit Miss State’s run defense especially hard.
Whereas it ranked third nationally last year in allowing 96.7 run yards per game, it currently ranks 63rd in the category, allowing 161.9 rush yards per game.
In particular, the Bulldogs miss Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. Without them, the Bulldogs lack the personnel on the defensive line to penetrate into the backfield and be disruptive.
Hence, their defensive line now ranks 80th in opportunity rate and 104th in stuff rate, meaning that opposing offensive lines are having an easy time opening up holes for their ball-carrier who is rarely unable to move the ball forward.
SEC Opponents Are Punishing Mississippi State
SEC squads are enjoying betting success against Mississippi State. Largely due to the latter’s problems in run defense, Miss State is on a 1-5 ATS run against SEC teams.
Let’s look at common opponents: against Miss State, Texas A&M ran for 207 yards on 5.3 YPC and four rushing touchdowns. Rakeem Boyd of Arkansas ran for 104 yards on only 11 carries. Auburn accrued 217 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC.
In contrast, against Ole Miss, the Aggies managed 165 yards on 4.3 YPC, Rakeem Boyd produced 67 yards on 17 carries, and Auburn ran for 167 yards on 3.6 YPC.
Ole Miss’ significant advantage is in its stronger run defense. The Rebels rank 36th in opposing rush yards per game and rank 50 spots ahead of Miss State in opposing YPC (Ole Miss allows 4.0 YPC, Miss State 4.8).
This statistical disparity is decisive because both teams are run-first — Ole Miss ranks 16th in run play frequency while the Bulldogs rank 21st.
Don’t Fail To Appreciate Ole Miss’ Running Game
I don’t think people know how special Mississippi’s ball-carriers are.
Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is primarily a running quarterback who leads his team in carries.
He’s 11 rushing yards away from becoming the fifth SEC quarterback to run for 1,000 yards in a season, joining the company of Cam Newton, Nick Marshall, Nick Fitzgerald, and Johnny Manziel.
Plumlee is also unique because he leads the SEC in rush yards per game — he averages 126.5, which is 2.8 YPC more than Georgia star De’Andre Swift.
Historically, Plumlee is special moreover because he’s the first quarterback since Vince Young to run for 200 yards against the number 1 team in the nation and the first to amass 200 rushing yards against LSU since Newton in 2010.
Given his high recruiting ranking as a four-star, Plumlee’s success should come as no surprise. Plus, offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez loves to employ his sort of skill set — this was evident when he was at West Virginia with Pat White.
Plumlee enjoys elite speed with a 4.42 40. Rodriguez is adept at scheming Plumlee into a good spot, for example by drawing defenders away from the middle of the field to create more room for Plumlee.
He also employs fake tosses to his running back and other bits of deception. He just needs a little bit of space and a little bit of blocking to gash an opposing defense.
Ole Miss Running Backs
Speed does not belong to Plumlee alone. Also look for Jerrion Ealy, who’s averaging 7.7 YPC against SEC opponents on 58 carries.
Ealy runs a 4.48 and is tough to bring down in open space because of his fluidity in changing directions, his juke, and his stiff arm. He’s always primed for a big play and he’s a threat out of the backfield.
Snoop Conner is another big-play threat. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC against conference opponents.
With this stacked talent, Ole Miss averaged 223 rush yards against Auburn, Alabama, and LSU.
Conclusion
I don’t think Ole Miss ball-carriers get nearly the attention that they deserve. They are stacked, talented, and often electric. They will thrive against Mississippi State’s emaciated and vulnerable run defense.
Historical trends — both in recent history against SEC opponents and in the series — further support an NCAAF Pick on Ole Miss. Grab the +3 while it’s still available.
Best Bet: Rebels +3 at -115 odds with Bovada and Rebels ML at +130 odds with 5Dimes
. I’m sure they bathe and are mostly free of std’s. I’d fuck them, lol. 
