Jhoss003
Pretty much a regular
OKLAHOMA STATE +20 (SPRINKLE ML)
This one’s flying under the radar, but it’s got all the ingredients of a massive correction game for a team that’s quietly been sitting on the edge of a rebound.
THE SETUP
Oklahoma State’s season has been absolute chaos — QB carousel, coaching change, guys hitting the portal — but finally, some light at the end of the tunnel.
QB Hauss Hejni is expected back, and that’s not just “some guy.”
He was BY FAR the best QB in camp — to the point he ran everyone else out of the room.
Since he went down, this offense has been epically bad… zero rhythm, no consistency, no leadership.
Now he’s back, with a redshirt still available — and all signs point to him playing the final 3 games. That changes everything.
LOCKER ROOM BUY-IN
Here’s the biggest tell — two OL starters who already declared for the portal are still practicing and saying they’ll finish the year.
That’s massive. That’s not happening in a locker room that’s given up.
That’s happening because they see the QB coming back, the fans still showing up, and the coaches preaching “finish strong.”
It’s a culture buy-in signal, not a “lay down and quit” team.
STILLWATER ENERGY
Even in the chaos, the fanbase hasn’t bailed.
Attendance has stayed solid, energy in Boone Pickens Stadium has been better than the record shows, and you can bet your house that they’ll be fired up for this one with Hauss back under center.
This feels like the “reset the narrative” game — not just for 2025, but for the future.
THE MATCHUP: K-STATE’S DEFENSE IS LEAKING
Kansas State’s pass defense has been a total liability this season.
They’ve been torched through the air multiple times — soft coverage, poor communication, and their corners have struggled all year.
Hejni’s return means OSU can actually stretch the field again, open up the run game, and force K-State to defend 53 yards wide instead of living in the box.
If OSU’s OL can give even moderate time — and with those starters still playing, that’s likely — this game doesn’t look like a blowout at all.
SP+ & POWER NUMBERS
SP+ projects this game closer to K-State -19, and that’s before factoring in Hejni’s return or OSU’s home-field edge.
Stillwater’s worth at least +2.5 to +3 points.
So when you factor all that in —
True line closer to K-State -16.5 or -17
Market giving you +20
That’s 3–4 points of baked-in value.
And value matters when motivation swings this sharply.
MOTIVATION EDGE
Let’s think about the psychology here:
• Kansas State: Bowl-hopeful, but nothing bigger to play for.
They’re grinding through the year, banged up, and inconsistent.
They’re not a “kill mode” team right now.
• Oklahoma State: Playing with house money, emotional lift with QB1 back, locker room stabilized, and a fan base desperate for a spark.
Every sign points to this being a “play for pride + prove it” kind of game.
THE SPOT
This is where college football flips scripts.
You’ve got:
Returning QB spark
OL choosing to fight on
Inflated market number
Home crowd that still cares
Opponent with no killer instinct
Public completely out on OSU
This is where you grab the big ugly home dog and let chaos work in your favor.
WHY OKLAHOMA STATE +20 IS THE PLAY
Hejni’s return = full offensive reset
OL still locked in despite portal noise
K-State pass D has been exposed all year
SP+ & true line show +3 to +4 points of value
Massive motivation + crowd energy angle
Quietly a “program pride” game in Stillwater
This one’s flying under the radar, but it’s got all the ingredients of a massive correction game for a team that’s quietly been sitting on the edge of a rebound.
THE SETUP
Oklahoma State’s season has been absolute chaos — QB carousel, coaching change, guys hitting the portal — but finally, some light at the end of the tunnel.
QB Hauss Hejni is expected back, and that’s not just “some guy.”
He was BY FAR the best QB in camp — to the point he ran everyone else out of the room.
Since he went down, this offense has been epically bad… zero rhythm, no consistency, no leadership.
Now he’s back, with a redshirt still available — and all signs point to him playing the final 3 games. That changes everything.
LOCKER ROOM BUY-IN
Here’s the biggest tell — two OL starters who already declared for the portal are still practicing and saying they’ll finish the year.
That’s massive. That’s not happening in a locker room that’s given up.
That’s happening because they see the QB coming back, the fans still showing up, and the coaches preaching “finish strong.”
It’s a culture buy-in signal, not a “lay down and quit” team.
STILLWATER ENERGY
Even in the chaos, the fanbase hasn’t bailed.
Attendance has stayed solid, energy in Boone Pickens Stadium has been better than the record shows, and you can bet your house that they’ll be fired up for this one with Hauss back under center.
This feels like the “reset the narrative” game — not just for 2025, but for the future.
THE MATCHUP: K-STATE’S DEFENSE IS LEAKING
Kansas State’s pass defense has been a total liability this season.
They’ve been torched through the air multiple times — soft coverage, poor communication, and their corners have struggled all year.
Hejni’s return means OSU can actually stretch the field again, open up the run game, and force K-State to defend 53 yards wide instead of living in the box.
If OSU’s OL can give even moderate time — and with those starters still playing, that’s likely — this game doesn’t look like a blowout at all.
SP+ & POWER NUMBERS
SP+ projects this game closer to K-State -19, and that’s before factoring in Hejni’s return or OSU’s home-field edge.
Stillwater’s worth at least +2.5 to +3 points.
So when you factor all that in —
True line closer to K-State -16.5 or -17 Market giving you +20That’s 3–4 points of baked-in value.
And value matters when motivation swings this sharply.
MOTIVATION EDGE
Let’s think about the psychology here:
• Kansas State: Bowl-hopeful, but nothing bigger to play for.
They’re grinding through the year, banged up, and inconsistent.
They’re not a “kill mode” team right now.
• Oklahoma State: Playing with house money, emotional lift with QB1 back, locker room stabilized, and a fan base desperate for a spark.
Every sign points to this being a “play for pride + prove it” kind of game.
THE SPOT
This is where college football flips scripts.
You’ve got:
Returning QB spark OL choosing to fight on Inflated market number Home crowd that still cares Opponent with no killer instinct Public completely out on OSUThis is where you grab the big ugly home dog and let chaos work in your favor.
WHY OKLAHOMA STATE +20 IS THE PLAY
Hejni’s return = full offensive reset OL still locked in despite portal noise K-State pass D has been exposed all year SP+ & true line show +3 to +4 points of value Massive motivation + crowd energy angle Quietly a “program pride” game in Stillwater
