Ohio State vs. Penn State: NCAAF Week 9 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
History
Since 2016, Ohio State and Penn State have tended to play each other very close.
In each of these last four meetings, the underdog has covered.
Neither team had won by more than three points until Ohio State beat Penn State last year by 11 points.
Yet even last year's Buckeyes would not have covered the current spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers.
I still want to make the argument that the gap this year between both teams is significantly narrower than it was last year.
Sean Clifford
Those who like Ohio State rely on a much more negative version of Sean Clifford than is called for.
Yes, in Penn State’s season opener, he was shaky before Penn State finally began to come back. He made two big mistakes, resulting in two interceptions
But throwing interceptions is not typical for Clifford. Last year, he threw six in the regular season with half of them coming in one game (against Minnesota).
Despite those two interceptions, he still threw for three touchdowns, earned a solid completion percentage, and accumulated over 350 yards of offense.
Clifford vs. Ohio State Defense
In its season opener, Ohio State allowed Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez to accumulate 85 rushing yards.
Last year, the Buckeyes didn’t often allow opposing mobile quarterbacks to accumulate a lot of rushing yards.
Their defense was more strongly geared to stop scramblers thanks to the presence of elite defensive end Chase Young.
But Young, who accrued three sacks last year against Penn State, is now in the NFL. He is irreplaceable.
Malik Harrison, who led the Buckeyes in tackles last year, was also an underrated force against running quarterbacks.
Overall, the Buckeyes lost five of their top six leaders in tackles for loss.
This year, Ohio State’s defensive line lacks a single playmaker.
More importantly, the Buckeye linebackers are absolutely not known for their mobility and their abilities in pursuit.
So Clifford, who ran for 119 yards against Indiana, will have another strong performance on the ground.
Passing Targets
After Shaun Wade, Ohio State remains unproven at the cornerback position.
Nittany Lion wide receiver Jahan Dotson will give Wade all he can handle. Dotson’s big-play ability is helping him cast off the initial label as a possession receiver. He’s a strongly improved route runner whose 94 yards last Saturday provide a glimpse of what’s to come.
Pat Freiermuth, who caught six passes last year against Ohio State, will remain Clifford’s favorite target. He boasts reliable hands, strength in traffic and at the point of attack, and size that is useful also in the red zone. He leads all-time Penn State tight ends in receiving touchdowns.
Run Support
Last year, PSU’s o-line allowed PSU to rank in the top third nationally in averaging 180 yards per game.
This year’s ground game can only be be better with a veteran offensive line laden with starting experience.
I fear that Penn State’s injuries at running back are scaring people away from choosing Penn State with their College Football Betting Picks.
But running back is an extremely overrated position. What is decisive is an offensive line’s ability to open holes and create running lanes for its running backs and Penn State clearly has that offensive line.
Plus, a weakened Buckeye defensive line and athletic limitations at linebacker explain why Nebraska was able to run for 210 yards on them. Penn State can achieve at least as much.
Limiting Justin Fields
Quarterback Justin Fields forms the heart and soul of the Buckeye offense. But a lot speaks against him for Saturday’s contest.
Ohio State continues to exhibit issues in pass protection. It allowed three sacks against Nebraska after ranking 99th last year in percentage of sacks allowed.
In turn, defensive line continues to be an area of strength for Penn State.
Look out especially for All-Big Ten, highly graded defensive end Shaka Toney to help make a difference. He accrued 6.5 sacks last season, flashing his maneuverability and pop off the edge.
He and Jayson Oweh accumulated 15 combined quarterback pressures last week. Oweh has a freakishly fast 40-yard dash time (4.33). His speed makes him a weapon as it even exceeds Toney’s.
At cornerback, Joey Porter Jr. stepped up opposite the veteran Tariq Castro-Fields.
In the latter’s effort against a strong Indiana wide receiver crew, TCF looked like his 2018 self where he led the Big Ten in opposing passer rating allowed.
Both Porter and TCF are steeled against the big play.
The Verdict
With the dual-threat Clifford, Penn State’s run blocking, Ohio State’s weakened front seven, and the Buckeyes’ drop off at cornerback, Penn State will sustain drives that lead to more points and that keep Fields on the sidelines.
Penn State’s pass rush will exploit a weakness of Ohio State’s offense especially as the Nittany Lion cornerbacks prevent Fields from punctually locating open targets.
Without their uncharacteristic start, unusual kicking issues, and other anomalies, the Nittany Lions beat Indiana. But because they lost, Ohio State is being overrated and we get more value on Penn State.
Best Bet: Nittany Lions +13.5 at -105 with Bovada
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Saturday, October 31, 2020 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
History
Since 2016, Ohio State and Penn State have tended to play each other very close.
In each of these last four meetings, the underdog has covered.
Neither team had won by more than three points until Ohio State beat Penn State last year by 11 points.
Yet even last year's Buckeyes would not have covered the current spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers.
I still want to make the argument that the gap this year between both teams is significantly narrower than it was last year.
Sean Clifford
Those who like Ohio State rely on a much more negative version of Sean Clifford than is called for.
Yes, in Penn State’s season opener, he was shaky before Penn State finally began to come back. He made two big mistakes, resulting in two interceptions
But throwing interceptions is not typical for Clifford. Last year, he threw six in the regular season with half of them coming in one game (against Minnesota).
Despite those two interceptions, he still threw for three touchdowns, earned a solid completion percentage, and accumulated over 350 yards of offense.
Clifford vs. Ohio State Defense
In its season opener, Ohio State allowed Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez to accumulate 85 rushing yards.
Last year, the Buckeyes didn’t often allow opposing mobile quarterbacks to accumulate a lot of rushing yards.
Their defense was more strongly geared to stop scramblers thanks to the presence of elite defensive end Chase Young.
But Young, who accrued three sacks last year against Penn State, is now in the NFL. He is irreplaceable.
Malik Harrison, who led the Buckeyes in tackles last year, was also an underrated force against running quarterbacks.
Overall, the Buckeyes lost five of their top six leaders in tackles for loss.
This year, Ohio State’s defensive line lacks a single playmaker.
More importantly, the Buckeye linebackers are absolutely not known for their mobility and their abilities in pursuit.
So Clifford, who ran for 119 yards against Indiana, will have another strong performance on the ground.
Passing Targets
After Shaun Wade, Ohio State remains unproven at the cornerback position.
Nittany Lion wide receiver Jahan Dotson will give Wade all he can handle. Dotson’s big-play ability is helping him cast off the initial label as a possession receiver. He’s a strongly improved route runner whose 94 yards last Saturday provide a glimpse of what’s to come.
Pat Freiermuth, who caught six passes last year against Ohio State, will remain Clifford’s favorite target. He boasts reliable hands, strength in traffic and at the point of attack, and size that is useful also in the red zone. He leads all-time Penn State tight ends in receiving touchdowns.
Run Support
Last year, PSU’s o-line allowed PSU to rank in the top third nationally in averaging 180 yards per game.
This year’s ground game can only be be better with a veteran offensive line laden with starting experience.
I fear that Penn State’s injuries at running back are scaring people away from choosing Penn State with their College Football Betting Picks.
But running back is an extremely overrated position. What is decisive is an offensive line’s ability to open holes and create running lanes for its running backs and Penn State clearly has that offensive line.
Plus, a weakened Buckeye defensive line and athletic limitations at linebacker explain why Nebraska was able to run for 210 yards on them. Penn State can achieve at least as much.
Limiting Justin Fields
Quarterback Justin Fields forms the heart and soul of the Buckeye offense. But a lot speaks against him for Saturday’s contest.
Ohio State continues to exhibit issues in pass protection. It allowed three sacks against Nebraska after ranking 99th last year in percentage of sacks allowed.
In turn, defensive line continues to be an area of strength for Penn State.
Look out especially for All-Big Ten, highly graded defensive end Shaka Toney to help make a difference. He accrued 6.5 sacks last season, flashing his maneuverability and pop off the edge.
He and Jayson Oweh accumulated 15 combined quarterback pressures last week. Oweh has a freakishly fast 40-yard dash time (4.33). His speed makes him a weapon as it even exceeds Toney’s.
At cornerback, Joey Porter Jr. stepped up opposite the veteran Tariq Castro-Fields.
In the latter’s effort against a strong Indiana wide receiver crew, TCF looked like his 2018 self where he led the Big Ten in opposing passer rating allowed.
Both Porter and TCF are steeled against the big play.
The Verdict
With the dual-threat Clifford, Penn State’s run blocking, Ohio State’s weakened front seven, and the Buckeyes’ drop off at cornerback, Penn State will sustain drives that lead to more points and that keep Fields on the sidelines.
Penn State’s pass rush will exploit a weakness of Ohio State’s offense especially as the Nittany Lion cornerbacks prevent Fields from punctually locating open targets.
Without their uncharacteristic start, unusual kicking issues, and other anomalies, the Nittany Lions beat Indiana. But because they lost, Ohio State is being overrated and we get more value on Penn State.
Best Bet: Nittany Lions +13.5 at -105 with Bovada
