Ohio State vs Clemson FIESTA BOWL - CFP Semifinal - NCAAF Picks and Predictions
Ohio State vs Clemson
Tuesday, December 28, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Travis Etienne’s Soft Competition
Running back Travis Etienne is critical for Clemson’s betting success.
In the Tigers’ two ATS losses against Power Five competition — which were Texas A&M and North Carolina -- Etienne failed to reach 5 YPC.
The run defenses that Clemson has faced are not strong The five best ones rank from 33rd to 64th in YPC allowed.
Those five are: Florida State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, North Carolina, and NC State. Against these teams, Etienne averaged 5.3 YPC.
So the fact that Etienne averages 8.2 YPC this season is absolutely a testament to the softness of his competition, namely the teams that rank bottom-half in YPC allowed.
Ohio State’s Well-Tested Run Defense
Being in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes have faced the cream of the rush attack crop.
In their first game against Wisconsin and its elite running back Jonathan Taylor, Taylor mustered 52 yards on only 20 carries.
Taylor’s second game was better statistically. He, along with Wisconsin, benefited from facing the same team a second time. But the bulk of Taylor’s yards came in the first half, in particular on two 45-yard runs.
Ohio State’s run defense will be the strongest that Etienne will have seem. OSU ranks sixth in allowing 2.8 YPC.
Chase Young
With limited help from Etienne, added onus will be placed on Lawrence.
I think the Buckeyes can make Trevor Lawrence work in multiple respects.
Lawrence loves to go deep by hitting his receivers on vertical routes.
But in waiting for those receivers to go downfield, he’ll have to elude the nation’s top pass rusher in Heisman candidate Chase Young.
Jeff Okudah
When Ohio State isn’t able to sack Lawrence, the Buckeyes own the personnel in the secondary to prevent big passing plays.
Jeff Okudah is the top projected cornerback in the upcoming NFL draft. He possesses reliable technique that makes it harder for receivers to create space for themselves.
Okudah is already extremely quick based on 40 time and his ball skills are underpinned by his physicality.
But Ohio State will need more than Okudah in order to account for Clemson’s depth of pass-catching talent.
Ohio State’s Well-Tested Pass Defense
When Ohio State has been damaged in the passing game — namely in the first half against Michigan — it missed Shaun Wade.
Wade is a projected second- or third-rounder and an important piece along with second-team All-Big Ten corner Damon Arnette.
With the likes of first-teamer Jordan Fuller, OSU has the safety help available over the top to help its corners.
Besides, OSU’s pass defense is well-tested. In terms of quarterback rating, it faced three top-15 quarterbacks: Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey, Wisconsin’s Jack Coan, and Penn State’s Sean Clifford.
Only Ramsey and Coan threw for a passing touchdown. Ramsey threw for the highest yardage total, just 162, excepting Coan’s second try against Ohio State.
Clemson’s Defensive Line
It shows that Clemson lost three of its four defensive linemen to last year's NFL draft. It’s also not as big as it was in the interior.
Clemson faced an elite running back in Boston College’s A.J. Dillon, who averaged four YPC on 19 attempts.
Four YPC may not sound like a lot. But note that BC lacks any semblance of a passing game to alleviate pressure from Dillon. Plus, Dillon is not really a big-play threat.
He shares with Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins the superbness of vision, power, and cut-back ability and advanced metrics show both to run behind a high-ranking run-protection unit. In fact, OSU’s ranks still decisively better than Boston College’s.
When Dillon wasn’t met by extra run defenders, he could exploit sizable holes against a front seven that mounted minimal penetration or resistance.
Dobbins is a workhorse who’s averaging 6.5 YPS while accruing 101 more carries than Etienne.
Justin Fields
He’ll also benefit from having what Ohio State sorely missed in 2016: an elite passing threat
Fields is PFF’s second-highest-ranked quarterback and one of the five highest in PFF’s history.
Most of his throws were attempted under unsafe protection. A nation’s-highest 72 percent of his 2,953 passing yards came through the air and he completed 66 percent of his downfield throws.
His coolness and composure and his accuracy downfield help explain his 40 touchdowns thrown to one interception.
Total
Ohio State will run a lot of clock with its ground game. Fields will weather ingenious blitzes dialed up by Clemson’s top-notch defensive coordinator and help OSU seal the game.
Defensively, the Buckeyes will limit Travis Etienne and force Trevor Lawrence to do almost all of the work himself by grinding out drives denuded of big plays.
Best Bet: Buckeyes +2 (-105) with Heritage, Buckeyes ML (+115) with 5Dimes, Under 63.5 (-105) with 5Dimes
Ohio State vs Clemson
Tuesday, December 28, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona
Travis Etienne’s Soft Competition
Running back Travis Etienne is critical for Clemson’s betting success.
In the Tigers’ two ATS losses against Power Five competition — which were Texas A&M and North Carolina -- Etienne failed to reach 5 YPC.
The run defenses that Clemson has faced are not strong The five best ones rank from 33rd to 64th in YPC allowed.
Those five are: Florida State, Texas A&M, South Carolina, North Carolina, and NC State. Against these teams, Etienne averaged 5.3 YPC.
So the fact that Etienne averages 8.2 YPC this season is absolutely a testament to the softness of his competition, namely the teams that rank bottom-half in YPC allowed.
Ohio State’s Well-Tested Run Defense
Being in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes have faced the cream of the rush attack crop.
In their first game against Wisconsin and its elite running back Jonathan Taylor, Taylor mustered 52 yards on only 20 carries.
Taylor’s second game was better statistically. He, along with Wisconsin, benefited from facing the same team a second time. But the bulk of Taylor’s yards came in the first half, in particular on two 45-yard runs.
Ohio State’s run defense will be the strongest that Etienne will have seem. OSU ranks sixth in allowing 2.8 YPC.
Chase Young
With limited help from Etienne, added onus will be placed on Lawrence.
I think the Buckeyes can make Trevor Lawrence work in multiple respects.
Lawrence loves to go deep by hitting his receivers on vertical routes.
But in waiting for those receivers to go downfield, he’ll have to elude the nation’s top pass rusher in Heisman candidate Chase Young.
Jeff Okudah
When Ohio State isn’t able to sack Lawrence, the Buckeyes own the personnel in the secondary to prevent big passing plays.
Jeff Okudah is the top projected cornerback in the upcoming NFL draft. He possesses reliable technique that makes it harder for receivers to create space for themselves.
Okudah is already extremely quick based on 40 time and his ball skills are underpinned by his physicality.
But Ohio State will need more than Okudah in order to account for Clemson’s depth of pass-catching talent.
Ohio State’s Well-Tested Pass Defense
When Ohio State has been damaged in the passing game — namely in the first half against Michigan — it missed Shaun Wade.
Wade is a projected second- or third-rounder and an important piece along with second-team All-Big Ten corner Damon Arnette.
With the likes of first-teamer Jordan Fuller, OSU has the safety help available over the top to help its corners.
Besides, OSU’s pass defense is well-tested. In terms of quarterback rating, it faced three top-15 quarterbacks: Indiana’s Peyton Ramsey, Wisconsin’s Jack Coan, and Penn State’s Sean Clifford.
Only Ramsey and Coan threw for a passing touchdown. Ramsey threw for the highest yardage total, just 162, excepting Coan’s second try against Ohio State.
Clemson’s Defensive Line
It shows that Clemson lost three of its four defensive linemen to last year's NFL draft. It’s also not as big as it was in the interior.
Clemson faced an elite running back in Boston College’s A.J. Dillon, who averaged four YPC on 19 attempts.
Four YPC may not sound like a lot. But note that BC lacks any semblance of a passing game to alleviate pressure from Dillon. Plus, Dillon is not really a big-play threat.
He shares with Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins the superbness of vision, power, and cut-back ability and advanced metrics show both to run behind a high-ranking run-protection unit. In fact, OSU’s ranks still decisively better than Boston College’s.
When Dillon wasn’t met by extra run defenders, he could exploit sizable holes against a front seven that mounted minimal penetration or resistance.
Dobbins is a workhorse who’s averaging 6.5 YPS while accruing 101 more carries than Etienne.
Justin Fields
He’ll also benefit from having what Ohio State sorely missed in 2016: an elite passing threat
Fields is PFF’s second-highest-ranked quarterback and one of the five highest in PFF’s history.
Most of his throws were attempted under unsafe protection. A nation’s-highest 72 percent of his 2,953 passing yards came through the air and he completed 66 percent of his downfield throws.
His coolness and composure and his accuracy downfield help explain his 40 touchdowns thrown to one interception.
Total
Ohio State will run a lot of clock with its ground game. Fields will weather ingenious blitzes dialed up by Clemson’s top-notch defensive coordinator and help OSU seal the game.
Defensively, the Buckeyes will limit Travis Etienne and force Trevor Lawrence to do almost all of the work himself by grinding out drives denuded of big plays.
Best Bet: Buckeyes +2 (-105) with Heritage, Buckeyes ML (+115) with 5Dimes, Under 63.5 (-105) with 5Dimes
