November

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
CFB
YEAR - [81-86 -42.52u]
OCT - [41-46 -22.50u]
LAST - [13-9 +14.17u]

SATURDAY
✅4/3.85 125 Miami Ohio -8 -104
❌4/3.81 135 OHIO STATE -15½ -105
✅4/3.74 139 NOTRE DAME +1½ -107
❌4/3.57 143 MIAMI FLORIDA -2½ -112
❌3/2.86 154 RUTGERS +14 -105
❌4/3.77 155 RUTGERS o40 -106
✅4/3.81 159 Oklahoma -1 -105
❌4/3.88 186 Auburn +3 -103
❌4/3.81 147 Northwestern +11½ -105
✅4/3.81 148 Iowa o37½ -105
✅4/3.81 152 Georgia State u54½ -105
✅4/3.81 157 South Alabama -9½ -105
✅4/3.81 158 Arkansas State u52 -105
✅4/3.81 187 Temple +14½ -105
❌4/3.88 190 WESTERN KENTUCKY -10 -103
✅4/3.64 8904 APPALACHIAN STATE u59½ -110
✅4/3.88 COASTAL CAROLINA +2½ -103
❌4/3.81 Arizona State -13 -105
❌4/3.88 COLORADO STATE +25 -103
✅4/3.85 MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +2½ -104
✅4/3.54 San Diego State +10½ -113
✅4/3.81 Nevada +24½ -105


TUESDAY
  • 3/2.88 KENT ST u62 -104
  • 3/2.86 OHIO +3 -105
  • 3/2.91 OHIO u58½ -103
Dang glad that horrible month is done, hopefully, this month is much better. :confused3:

1667316177781.png

eoomLwC.jpg


 
CFB
YEAR - [83-87 -39.78u]
LAST - [2-1 +2.74u]

TUESDAY
✅3/2.88 KENT ST u62 -104
✅3/2.86 OHIO +3 -105
❌3/2.91 OHIO u58½ -103


WEDNESDAY
  • 3.12/3 CENTRAL MICHIGAN o57 -104

1667409435698.png

o8hmxn8j2fh51.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [83-87 -39.78u]
LAST - [0-0-1 0u]

WEDNESDAY
⛅3.12/3 CENTRAL MICHIGAN o57 -104

MInkA8Q.jpg


THURSDAY
  • 3/2.88 UTEP +4 -104
  • 3/2.86 APPALACHIAN ST -3 -105
  • 3/2.86 COASTAL CAROLINA u64 -105
1667475867923.png​
​
Nice 67% trend over 10 years on UTEP tonight​
6vJOQ56.png


KAxuptL.png
 
CFB
YEAR - [84-89 -42.92u]
LAST - [1-2 -3.14u]

THURSDAY
❌3/2.88 UTEP +4 -104
❌3/2.86 APPALACHIAN ST -3 -105
✅3/2.86 COASTAL CAROLINA u64 -105


FRIDAY
  • 3.15/3 BOSTON COLLEGE +12 -105
  • 3.21/3 BOSTON COLLEGE u47½ -107
  • 3.15/3 MASSACHUSETTS o40 -105


b0d0790b6c21ee5387299510612185a9.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [84-89 -46.28u]
LAST - [1-2 -3.36u]

FRIDAY
✅3.15/3 BOSTON COLLEGE +12 -105
❌3.21/3 BOSTON COLLEGE u47½ -107
❌3.15/3 MASSACHUSETTS o40 -105

GG5OhCzhi3PMuyhAxHs55662oeNFaa3z6j2acmblcis.jpg


SATURDAY (early action)
  • 4.20/4 AIR FORCE -7 -105
  • 5.20/5 ARMY u40½ -104
  • 4.32/4 UNC -7 -108
  • 4.16/4 MINNESOTA -14½ -104
  • 4.20/4 NEBRASKA u44½ -105
  • 4.16/4 MARSHALL -3½-104
  • 4.20/4 ODU u47 -105
  • 4.48/4 KENTUCKY +1 -112
  • 5.25/5 W KENTUCKY -15 -105
  • 4.20/4 CHARLOTTE u72½ -105
  • 4/4.00 TULANE -7 +100
  • 4.20/4 TULANE o56 -105
  • 4.20/4 TCU o69 -105
NORTH CAROLINA -7 ...This game can quickly become a blowout. UNC has been getting excellent QB play from Drake Maye (over 70% & 334 pass ypg) and avg 502 total ypg along with 41.8 ppg. They do give up an avg 31.4 ppg as well, but versus the Cavs anemic offense that shouldn't be an issue. Virginia only 1-5 ATS in conf this season and won't be able to keep up. The Heels have won four straight (3-1 ATS) and I do see them rolling today

Among other things, here's a solid trend to the under in the early game.
When a team rushed for 340 or more last game and the line <=10 with a total under 65 it's 61.1% under with a 488 game sample. :popcorn:

1667648585155.png

zpq9BhL.jpg



so let's eat...
160304.jpg
 
1667662354765.png
mid-afternoon action...

1667662503305.png​
  • 4.20/4 MICHIGAN ST +16 -105
  • 4.20/4 TEXAS o54½ -105
  • 4.20/4 BYU +8½ -105
  • 4.20/4 BOISE ST u54 -105
  • 4.32/4 WASHINGTON ST -3½ -108
  • 4.20/4 STANFORD u48 -105
  • 4.16/4 MID TENNESSEE ST -2½ -104
  • 4/4.00 SMU -3½+100
  • 4.20/4 SMU o65½ -105
  • 5.20/5 TROY STATE -3½ -104
  • 4.20/4 CENTRAL FLORIDA o60½ -105
  • 4.16/4 LSU +13½ -104
  • 4.20/4 GEORGIA SOUTHERN +3½ -105
  • 4.32/4 UL MONROE u53 -108



20221025023218_a997d4da-90e0-46a8-bfeb-436ee740251d.jpg
 
1667685825570.png




night action...

  • 4.20/4 MICHIGAN -25½ -105
  • 4.20/4 WAKE FOREST -3 -105
  • 4.20/4 MIAMI FLORIDA +7½ -105
  • 4.20/4 UTAH -17½ -105
  • 3.12/3 USC -21½ -104
  • 5.25/5 ARIZONA ST +11 -105
  • 4.16/4 SOUTH CAROLINA -6½ -104
  • 4.16/4 VANDERBILT u49 -104
  • 4.20/4 MISSISSIPPI ST -12½-105
  • 4.20/4 LSU +13½ -105
  • 3.12/3 CLEMSON -3½ -104
lsu-tigers-cheerleaders-24.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [105-106 -25.53u]
LAST - [21-17 +20.75u]


SATURDAY
❌4.20/4 AIR FORCE -7 -105
✅5.20/5 ARMY u40½ -104
❌4.32/4 UNC -7 -108
❌4.16/4 MINNESOTA -14½ -104
✅4.20/4 NEBRASKA u44½ -105
✅4.16/4 MARSHALL -3½-104
✅4.20/4 ODU u47 -105
✅4.48/4 KENTUCKY +1 -112
✅5.25/5 W KENTUCKY -15 -105
✅4.20/4 CHARLOTTE u72½ -105
✅4/4.00 TULANE -7 +100
❌4.20/4 TULANE o56 -105
❌4.20/4 TCU o69 -105
✅4.20/4 MICHIGAN ST +16 -105
✅4.20/4 TEXAS o54½ -105
✅4.20/4 BYU +8½ -105
❌4.20/4 BOISE ST u54 -105
✅4.32/4 WASHINGTON ST -3½ -108
❌4.20/4 STANFORD u48 -105
❌4.16/4 MID TENNESSEE ST -2½ -104
✅4/4.00 SMU -3½+100
✅4.20/4 SMU o65½ -105
✅5.20/5 TROY STATE -3½ -104
✅4.20/4 LSU +13½ -105
✅4.20/4 CENTRAL FLORIDA o60½ -105
❌4.20/4 GEORGIA SOUTHERN +3½ -105
❌4.32/4 UL MONROE u53 -108
✅4.20/4 MICHIGAN -25½ -105
❌4.20/4 WAKE FOREST -3 -105
❌4.20/4 MIAMI FLORIDA +7½ -105
✅4.20/4 UTAH -17½ -105
❌3.12/3 USC -21½ -104
❌5.25/5 ARIZONA ST +11 -105
✅4.16/4 SOUTH CAROLINA -6½ -104
❌4.16/4 VANDERBILT u49 -104
❌4.20/4 MISSISSIPPI ST -12½-105
❌3.12/3 CLEMSON -3½ -104
✅4.16/4 LSU +13½ -104
158839_2.jpg

Was absolutely crushing SAT and up over 40u before going 3-8 in late games. Still my best day of the season.

TUESDAY
  • 3/2.86 OHIO -2 -105

kristine.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [106-106 -22.67u]
LAST - [1-0 +2.86u]

TUESDAY
✅3/2.86 OHIO -2 -105

WEDNESDAY
  • 3/2.97 KENT STATE -3 -101

5pzz0lb37bw81.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [107-106 -19.7u]
LAST - [1-0 +2.97u]

WEDNESDAY
✅3/2.97 KENT STATE -3 -101

THURSDAY
  • 3/2.83 UL LAFAYETTE u63 -106

Warming up a bit, up 22.81u for Nov. Too bad I dug such a big hole...

160354.jpg
 
1668200134541.png




CFB
YEAR - [108-106 -16.87u]
LAST - [1-0 +2.83u]

THURSDAY
✅3/2.83 UL LAFAYETTE u63 -106



FRIDAY
  • 3/1.54 CINCY -195
  • 3/2.86 FRESNO ST -9½ -105
​

  • Jake Haener's career is almost over, so it'll be sad to see such a stud at a mediocre program go because he can really make a huge difference. I'm gonna have to side with him and the Bulldogs tonight, even as big road chalk. Their offense got back on track last week,(Haener's 2nd game back from injury). UNLV hasn't scored over 21 points since September. Even though both teams have very similar records, I think they are going in opposite directions and quite a bit apart especially with Jake back. Lay the lumber and don't look back!

1668200201468.png​



1668200455770.png1668200044054.png
usa-today-9096212.0.jpg
 
CFB
YEAR - [108-106 -18.33u]
LAST - [1-1 -1.46u]

FRIDAY
✅3/1.54 CINCY -195
❌3/2.86 FRESNO ST -9½ -105

SATURDAY (Day games)
  • 4/3.81 135 Oklahoma -8 -1051668255746514.png
  • 4/3.81 137 PITTSBURGH -5½ -105
  • 4/3.81 148 Florida -8 -105
  • 4/3.81 164 Georgia St u59½ -105
  • 4/3.81 170 TULANE u54½ -105
  • 4/3.70 171 NORTHWESTERN +17½ -108
  • 4/3.81 173 PURDUE +6½ -105
  • 4/3.81 190 Washington St -9½ -105
  • 4/3.81 209 WISCONSIN -105
  • 4/3.85 215 New Mexico +21 -104
  • 4/3.81 219 North Texas +6 -105
Nice 61.5% angle over 10+ years that's 75% last 2 seasons
1668255572605.png
​
qs1ci5dpcjq41.jpg
​
 
CFB
YEAR - [113-112 -23.38u]
LAST - [5-6 -4.95u]

SATURDAY
❌4/3.81 135 Oklahoma -8 -105
✅4/3.81 137 PITTSBURGH -5½ -105
✅4/3.81 148 Florida -8 -105
✅4/3.81 164 Georgia St u59½ -105
❌4/3.81 170 TULANE u54½ -105
❌4/3.70 171 NORTHWESTERN +17½ -108
✅4/3.81 173 PURDUE +6½ -105
✅4/3.81 190 Washington St -9½ -105
❌4/3.81 209 WISCONSIN PK -105
❌4/3.85 215 New Mexico +21 -104
❌4/3.81 219 North Texas +6 -105

1668554431189.png

TUESDAY
  • 2/1.92 OHIO -3½ -104
  • 2/1.89 OHIO o57½ -106

Ohio has won/covered its L3 with Ball State and also covered their last 6 straight overall this season. They are 6-0 ATS in the conference(5-1 SU). QB Kurtis Rourke is playing much better lately with two 300+ yard games and 8 TD to one pick in the last 2 games. Maybe Ohio's pass D is questionable but it's unlikely Ball St has the guns to take advantage as they avg a pathetic 5.8 yards per pass while Ohio avg 8.9. Having 2nd thoughts on the over but it's already in, so I'll ride it~ Let's go!

160435.jpg


 
CFB
YEAR - [114-113 -23.46u]
LAST - [1-1 -0.08u]

TUESDAY
✅2/1.92 OHIO -3½ -104
❌2/1.89 OHIO o57½ -106

WEDNESDAY
  • 3/2.91 KENT STATE -7½ -103
  • 5/4.42 KENT STATE o59 -113

1668607368683.png
 
CFB
YEAR - [114-115 -31.46u]1668706323907.png
LAST - [0-2 -8u]


WEDNESDAY
❌3/2.91 KENT STATE -7½ -103
❌5/4.42 KENT STATE o59 -113

THURSDAY
  • 3.30/3 SMU +3½ -110

1668705929626.png
g5vxgvzbxa781.jpg
52owBKS.png
 
CFB
YEAR - [114-116 -34.76u]
LAST - [0-1 -3.3u]

THURSDAY
❌3.30/3 SMU +3½ -110
Been a tough run this week going 1-4 since Monday :doh:

FRIDAY
  • 3.30/3 1H-SAN DIEGO ST -7½ -110
  • 2.10/2 SAN DIEGO ST o36 -105

randoms
  • NEW MEXICO 4-17 ATS (-14.7 Units) overall L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as DOG L2 seasons.1668776407931.png
  • NEW MEXICO 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in conference L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) with 6 or fewer days rest L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a conference loos L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses L2 seasons.
  • NEW MEXICO 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 2 seasons.
  • The Lobos just plain suck with no wins since 9/17 and only wins vs Maine & UTEP. They average a whopping 109.2 yards passing per game, 5th lowest in the nation...only behind UCONN and the 3 military schools. Probably the over is a reach but at only 36 if Lobos can put up 9 or 10 it should cash.
8187355072_8505acacf0_b.jpg

160475.jpg
 
1668864882959.png

CFB
YEAR - [116-116 -29.76u]
LAST - [2-0 +5u]

FRIDAY
✅3.30/3 1H-SAN DIEGO ST -7½ -110
✅2.10/2 SAN DIEGO ST o36 -105


SATURDAY
  • 4.16/4 ILLINOIS o41½ -104
  • 4.20/4 GEORGIA -22½ -105
  • 4.20/4 TEXAS -9 -105
  • 4.20/4 KANSAS u63½ -105
  • 4.20/4 LSU -15 -105
  • 3.15/3 UTSA -13½ -105
  • 4.20/4 COLORADO ST +21½ -105
  • 4.20/4 BC +20½ -105
  • 4.20/4 VANDERBILT u57½ -105
  • 4.20/4 TCU -2 -105
  • 5.20/5 WISCONSIN -10 -104
  • 4.20/4 WISCONSIN o40½ -105
  • 3.15/3 UTEP -14 -105
  • 3.18/3 BOISE ST -14 -106
  • 3.15/3 UNLV -11 -105

L2nPJnp.jpg


randoms
  • TEX -9 ...Longhorns have failed to cover in L5 and 7 of 9 vs KAN. In L3 years, the horns have been 31, 21, and 15-point chalk and delivered a one-point loss, two-point win, and seven-point win...this is the granddaddy of all "Due Factors"
  • WIS -10... Earlier this season, after losing two in a row, by 32 and 24 points, WIS went to NW and won 42-7. NW and NEB field similar D's, allowing ~ 200 RYPG and 450 total yards plus close to 30 PPG(28.2 & 29.8). It's almost like they’re the same defense! It looks like NEB #1 QB, Casey Thompson, will return from injury. Regardless, they haven’t changed any offense while the other two QBs have played poorly. Wisky D is good and a rusty Thompson will be hard-pressed to come back and shine today...even at home. After news of the Thompson return, the line has dropped from -12½ to -9½ (settled back to 10). Remember, this is a one-season QB on a team that fired its head coach and has interims at all coaching positions eyeing their next career moves. The offensive coordinator, who hasn’t been a good fit for the personnel, got run over on the sidelines last game, injuring his knee, and moving him upstairs in the booth to call the plays. Thompson has a TD-INT of 12-10, not so hot, and -171 yards lost on sacks. WIS D has 15 INTs and the most yards per carry they’ve allowed in Big Ten games is 3.3. This one really lines up like gravy. Badgers by 20

troy-v-wisconsin.jpg
 
Best teams playing today with a few stats I like to look at:

Tenny has amazing pass offense and DP$ but pass defense is lagging. UM run defense may be the most telling stat.

kUbZvpT.png


ql2XgN7.jpg


Looks like some cold weather in some places today

pTDnOFb.jpeg
 
CFB
YEAR - [123-126 -44.79u]
LAST - [7-10 -15.03u]

SATURDAY
❌4.16/4 ILLINOIS o41½ -104
❌4.20/4 GEORGIA -22½ -105
✅4.20/4 TEXAS -9 -105
❌4.20/4 KANSAS u63½ -105
✅4.20/4 LSU -15 -105
✅3.15/3 UTSA -13½ -105
✅4.20/4 COLORADO ST +21½ -105
❌4.20/4 BC +20½ -105
✅4.20/4 VANDERBILT u57½ -105
❌4.20/4 TCU -2 -105
❌5.20/5 WISCONSIN -10 -104
❌4.20/4 WISCONSIN o40½ -105
✅3.15/3 UTEP -14 -105
❌3.18/3 BOISE ST -14 -106
❌3.15/3 UNLV -11 -105
❌4.20/4 MICHIGAN -16½ -105
✅3/2.86 MICHIGAN u41½ -105

THURSDAY
  • 3/2.44 MISSISSIPPI -123
  • 3/2.86 MISSISSIPPI u61 -105
  • 3.30/3 1H-MISSISSIPPI u30½ -110
1669294294067.png

Lane Kiffin is 2-0 vs Mike Leach in the "Egg Bowl". But, this could be Kiffin's final game for the Rebs with all the talk of him taking the Auburn job. Ole Miss sure looked distracted last week in a loss at Arkansas, but I think they can rally the ship after the initial distraction. The line is priced well with even the ML at a reasonable price. 61 seems too tall to me, even though there will surely be plenty of points scored, I'm banking they are slow to get the scoring rolling.

160539.jpg
 
E9OZDkvR09c6ePeM0zNMqRTfh76qJJ74ZH6xTTuXD44.jpg


CFB
YEAR - [125-127 -41.93u]
LAST - [2-1 +2.86u]

THURSDAY
❌3/2.44 MISSISSIPPI -123
✅3/2.86 MISSISSIPPI u61 -105
✅3.30/3 1H-MISSISSIPPI u30½ -110

FRIDAY
  • 4.20/4 TEXAS u55½ -105
  • 4.20/4 TOLEDO -7½ -105
  • 4.20/4 W MICHIGAN u52 -105
  • 4.16/4 NEBRASKA o38 -104
  • 4.20/4 NEBRASKA +10½ -105

Toledo%20Rockets%202015-2019%20Secondary%20Logo%20iron%20on.png


TEX/BAY u55½ ...Significant rain is expected to dampen this matchup in Austin today along with brisk winds that may force both teams to rely more on their ground game. TEX would welcome this as their rush defense is top-level (3.4 RYPA allowed and top 20 nationally), effectively countering Baylor's decent run game (4.8 RYPA). The Horn's run-game averages 5.5 yards per carry(13th), so we will likely see a lot of the run game from both sides. Scoring will therefore be slowed significantly. TEX allows only 20.6 ppg. With the shitty weather, expect TEX to exercise caution on offense and avoid turnovers. I do like TEX as well, but not so sure I want to lay over 7. With the TEX run D and likely cautious play, I do believe the under is a solid side in this noon game.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1596081498674823168

Team playing today with stats for 2022:
1669385280361.png

iowa-v-nebraska.jpg
 
1669466537375.png

CFB
YEAR - [128-129 -38.33u]
LAST - [3-2 +3.6u]


FRIDAY
❌4.20/4 TEXAS u55½ -105
❌4.20/4 TOLEDO -7½ -105
✅4.20/4 W MICHIGAN u52 -105
✅4.16/4 NEBRASKA o38 -104
✅4.20/4 NEBRASKA +10½ -105



SATURDAY
  • 4/4.04 OREGON -3 +101
  • 4/3.92 GEORGIA -35½ -102
  • 4/3.77 ARMY -19½ -106
  • 5/4.76 MASS u45 -105
  • 5/4.81 E CAROLINA -10 -104
  • 4/3.81 TEMPLE u52-105
  • 4/3.88 WISCONSIN u36½ -103
  • 4/3.81 MARSHALL u45½ -105
  • 5/4.76 ILLINOIS o38 -105
  • 4/3.81 TROY -13½ -105
  • 4/3.81 ARKY ST u44½ -105


NICE TREND TO FADE: 60.3% OVER 10+ YEARS

1669466372574.png
71f67fcfed90ab18f61f843cfe79d1a4d099d008ea9aabc61151d853811dd99f.jpg
 
Rest of my board...
  • 4/3.88 SYRACUSE -10½ -103
  • 4/3.85 UCF -20 -104
  • 4/3.81 BYU -6 -105
  • 4/3.81 PITT -6½ -105
  • 4/3.81 UTAH -29½ -105
  • 4/3.81 OKLAHOMA -2 -105
  • 4/3.81 LSU -10 -105
  • 4/3.88 UL LAFAYETTE -5 -103
  • 4/3.81 TEXAS ST u44 -105
  • 4/3.81 MID TENN ST -19½ -105
  • 4/3.81 TEXAS A&M u47½ -105
  • 5/4.76 AIR FORCE -2 -105

e4a0e3a7af1447aab58e97e648920d91.jpg
 
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