November 2016

[hugh613]

MTD: 0-0, +/-0.00

Tuesday:

11/1/2016 3:45 PM European Cup Soccer 104 Barcelona (UCL)/Manchester City (UCL)* Over 2½ -185

*Has it really been a year since I started a month long thread? I'd say things have changed a lot in here over the course of the past 12 months since the 'incident', but they haven't really (kj still ascending, dylan still talking to himself, bum still winning, and frauds still frauding...)

Anyways, I'll be betting one game a day this month (three on Saturdays and Sundays, split into morning, afternoon and night, due to the sheer number of games), and treating each one as though it were a max bet, even though I'll be sticking with normal units. Also, I'll be posting a day in advance for those interested in playing along at home.

First up is the most 'obvious' play on the board, due to the teams involved, expected pace of play, and the number of injuries/suspensions to each sides back lines (Bravo out and Stones hopefully back in for City, Mathieu, Pique and Alba out for Barcelona). And, of course, Sergio Aguero won't be sitting on the bench this time around...

Don't think it'll be 4-3, but don't expect it to be 1-0 either...

 

[KJ]

May there be 4 City goals, BOL hugh :beer4:

 

[Monger]

Here's to a winning month, Hugh! :shake:

 

[cxbbum]

there he is....a profitable month is coming to you....>m<....let the goals flow, and best of luck my brother....\m/

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 1-0, +1.00

Wednesday:

11/2/2016 2:00 PM Germany Soccer 554 Elversberg (GER-R SW)* -1½ +103 vs Nottingen (GER-R SW)

*Top of the table vs. bottom of the table, the best defensive team in the league (0.47 goals allowed per game through 17 games) vs. the worst defensive team in the league (2.88 goals allowed per game through 16 games). What could possibly go wrong (that was rhetorical, don't answer that...)?

Thanks kj, Monger and bum.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 2-0, +2.03

Thursday:

11/3/2016 2:00 PM European Cup Soccer 13 AS Roma (UEFA-Europa)/Austria Vienna (UEFA-Europa)* Over 2½ -187

*Yeah, yeah, I already know what you're thinking - what's with all the juice. Well, let's face it, when you're only betting one game, high odds aren't necessarily going to kill you. Betting multiple games, that's where it gets dicey. Anyways, sounds like Spalletti's taking everyone that matters to Vienna (Dzeko, Strootman, El Shaarawy, Salah, Nainggolan), so goals shouldn't be hard to come by in this one.

 

[KJ]

Me likey, gl hugh :beer4:

 

[dylanphan]

Hugh613! You the man. Can't believe I didn't see this thread sooner... pretty damn good start to the month ffs

 

[KJ]

Well done hugh :cheers3:

No such thing as juice when you don't pay it

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 3-0, +3.03

Friday:

11/4/2016 2:00 PM Germany Soccer 951 Garching (GER-R Bayern)/TSV Buchbach (GER-R Bayern)* Over 2½,3 -109

*Buchbach's gone over 7 straight and 9 of their last 10. Garching's gone over 6 straight and 8 of their last 10. Buchbach's 12-5 O/U 2.5 on the season (7-2 at home), Garching's 13-4 O/U 2.5 on the season (6-3 on the road). Through 17 games, Buchbach averaging 1.29 GF, 2.00 GA, Garching 2.00 GF, 1.76 GA. Should be a few goals in this one I would think...

YO!.. Where my boys kj and dylanphan at?!

 

[lkk66]

Nice hit.. 4 goals in 21 mins

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 4-0, +4.03

Saturday:

11/5/2016 2:35 AM Australia Soccer 5001 Newcastle Jets (AUS-A)/Wellington Phoenix (AUS-A)* Over 2½,3 -115
11/5/2016 3:00 PM Switzerland Soccer 5405 Basel (SWI-S)* -1½ -124 vs Lausanne Sports (SWI-S)
11/5/2016 9:00 PM Mexico Soccer 460 America de Mexico (MEX)/Atlas (MEX)* Over 2½ -128

*Morning, noon, and night as advertised... 1) Wellington and Newcastle have played to 8 straight overs, with 7 of those hitting 4 goals or more, and 4 of them hitting 5 goals or more. Only source of concern is the fact that neither side's been exactly lighting it up through the first four rounds, but the way the lines are shaded at the moment (BTTS -163 @ bet365; Wellington TT OV 1.5 -114, Newcastle TT OV 1 -126 @ Pinnacle) kind of suggests the floodgates might open up in this one, 2) the other day I brought up my unsubstantiated theory about how teams from the smaller leagues that lose mid week in Europe tend to take it out on their weaker domestic opponents the following game. Well, it would appear that doesn't apply to Basel as they're only 1-0-2 in post Champions League matches this season, including a 2-1 win at Lausanne back in September. Having said that, this is still the dominant team in Super League that we're talking about, and a team that's gone 14-0-1 against Lausanne this decade, including 8 wins by 2 goals or more, and all 6 at home by the AH. Be pretty surprising if they don't at least get the win in this one and 3) Atlas/America have gone over in 7 straight (although six of those games landed on 3) and BTTS is hitting at 66.6% for each side during the Apertura (10/15), so this one should be in line with the previous games.

Thanks lkk66.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 4-3, +0.36

Sunday:

11/6/2016 12:00 PM Poland Soccer 4207 Cracovia Krakow (POL-E)/Legia Warsaw (POL-E)* Over 2½ -131 *2 UNITS*

*This fell apart pretty fucking fast... Let's see if we can't right the ship a little bit.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 4-4, -2.26

Adding:

11/6/2016 6:30 PM USA MLS Soccer 941 Toronto (USA-MLS)/New York City (USA-MLS)* Over 2½ -183 *2 UNITS*

*The way this weekend's gone, who knows...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 5-4, -0.26

Monday:

11/7/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 1 Fleetwood Town (ENG-FA Cup)/Southport (ENG-FA Cup)* Over 2½ -143

 

[hugh613]

*Never a big fan of these cup games, but both sides numbers look pretty good in this one (Fleetwood Town Away - BTTS 6-2, Scored 8-0, Conceded 6-2; Southport Home - BTTS 6-3, Scored 7-2, Conceded 8-1), so should be in line to get this one (thought about the overs with Cluj and Wil, but the numbers were pretty one sided, so...)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 5-5, -1.69

Tuesday:

11/8/2016 2:00 PM England Soccer 31 MK Dons (EFL-Trophy)/Norwich City U23 (EFL-Trophy)* Over 3 -131
11/8/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 11 Gloucester City (ENG-Conf N)/Alfreton (ENG-Conf N)* Over 3 -136
11/8/2016 2:45 PM Scotland Soccer 601 Dunfermline (SCO-Cham)/Dundee Utd (SCO-Cham)* Over 3 -127
11/8/2016 2:45 PM Scotland Soccer 621 Montrose (SCO-2)/Annan (SCO-2)* Over 3 -120

*Seeing as how I got a grand total of ZERO goals yesterday, not sure where I plan on coming up with this many goals this afternoon, but it is what it is...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 7-7, -2.32

Wednesday:

11/9/2016 2:30 PM England Soccer 201 Notts County (EFL-Trophy)/Sunderland U23 (EFL-Trophy)* Over 2½ -119
11/9/2016 2:30 PM England Soccer 207 Rochdale (EFL-Trophy)/Hartlepool United (EFL-Trophy)* Over 2½ -120
11/9/2016 2:45 PM International Soccer 104 Belgium (Friendly)/Netherlands (Friendly)* Over 2½ -128
11/9/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 210 Crawley Town (EFL-Trophy)/Southampton U23 (EFL-Trophy)* Over 2½ -121
11/9/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 219 Bradford (EFL-Trophy)/Morecambe (EFL-Trophy)* Over 2½ -112

*Took all of one week to throw the 'one game a day' experiment out the window... And just as an illustration of how bad it's gone this week as compared to last, Gloucester came in 12-3 O/U on the season, Alfreton 13-2. Final score 2-0, SMH...

No DeBruyne for Belgium from the sounds of it, but don't think that'll matter much (well, we'll see at least...)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 11-8, +0.40

Adding:

11/9/2016 7:30 PM International Soccer 1554 Paraguay U20 (Friendly)/Peru U20 (Friendly)* Over 2½ -126

*One goal away from the sweep (stupid Belgians). Let's see if we can't knock off one more...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 12-8, +1.40

Thursday:

11/10/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 2001 Newcastle Jets (AUS-A)/Melbourne City (AUS-A)* Over 3 -131
11/10/2016 7:55 AM UAE Soccer 1155 Al Dhafra (UAE-Cup)* -128 vs Emirates (UAE-Cup)
11/10/2016 12:00 PM International Soccer 401 Turkey U21 (Friendly)/Germany U21 (Friendly)* Over 3,3½ -110

*Melbourne City 15-2 O/U 2.5 at home the past season and a half, the over 5-0 the last 5 H2H (4 games with 4 goals or more) and the over 6-1 the last 7 H2H in Melbourne. More of a value play than anything else on Al Dhafra as Emirates are 2-9-7 their last 18 overall, and 1-8-7 their last 16 on the road (Al Dhafra at least a somewhat respectable 3-2 their last 5 competitive matches). And the over in the U21 match as Germany's heavily favoured and have an offense capable of turning this one into a rout.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/10/2016 12:30 PM European Cup Soccer 1437 FC Zurich (ClubFriendly)/Vaduz (ClubFriendly)* Over 3,3½ -122
11/10/2016 12:30 PM European Cup Soccer 1440 Eintracht Frankfurt (ClubFriendly)/FSV Frankfurt (ClubFriendly)* Over 2½,3 -116
11/10/2016 1:00 PM WEuropean Cup Soccer 4204 Wolfsburg (UCL-Women)/Eskilstuna United (UCL-Women)* Over 3,3½ -105

*Aussies score 3 in the 1H then never score again and Al Dhafra made it look pretty easy with three goals in three minutes to start the game. Anyways, Vaduz/Zurich trends over (12-2 including 3-0 in the last 3 friendlies). Vaduz 4-3 O/U at home this year, Luzern a perfect 14-0 overall on the season. Eintracht/FSV doesn't really strike me as an over at first glance, but FSV's the highest scoring team in Bundesliga 3, and Pinnacle's got both team total's juiced (FSV Over 1 -123, Eintracht Over 1.5 -124), so I'll trust those that are smarter than me on this one. As for the WCL match, again, doesn't really jump out at first, but there's a real disparity in talent at the women's level, and Wolfsburg tend to blow past their opposition in these Cup games, so hopefully history repeats.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 15-10-1, +2.08

Adding:

11/10/2016 6:30 PM Chile Soccer 801 Everton De Vina (CHI-Cup)/Union Espanola (CHI-Cup)* Over 3 +110

*Sucky line, but I can only play what's offered to me, so... Everton 8-3 O/U 2.5 this season (5-1 on the road), Espanola 7-4 (3-1 at home). Everton 9-2 BTTS, Espanola 8-3. Over 7-2 the last nine H2H (4+ goals in 4 games), and 5-0 the last 5 H2H at Espanola (4+ goals in 4 games).

And I just I realized what I did: I capped the Swiss game using Luzern's stats, not FC Zurich. Sucks getting old and senile, although I'm still pretty hip, I think...

 

[hugh613]

Damn, what a free kick...

:goal:

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 15-10-2, +2.08

Friday:

11/11/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 3001 Brisbane Roar (AUS-A)/Adelaide United (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -129
11/11/2016 5:20 AM International Soccer 601 Oman (Friendly)/Japan (Friendly)* Over 2½ -126
11/11/2016 1:00 PM Germany Soccer 1405 Homburg (GER-R SW)* -1,-1½ -130 vs Nottingen (GER-R SW)

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/11/2016 10:00 AM Algeria Soccer 1610 USM Alger (ALG)/MC Oran (ALG)* Over 2½ +152
11/11/2016 1:00 PM Germany Soccer 1404 Nottingen (GER-R SW)/Homburg (GER-R SW)* Over 3 -126
11/11/2016 2:30 PM Belgium Soccer 1701 St. Gilloise (BEL-2)/Lierse (BEL-2)* Over 2½ -119

 

[hugh613]

*I already know what you're thinking with regards to the Algerian total, but Alger's gone over in four of its last five games, with BTTS hitting in four of five, Alger giving up 2+ goals in four of its last five, and the last two H2H going over. Not an easy feat in such a low scoring league, so why not take a shot for once... More or less double dipping on the German match, but Nottingen's the worst team in Regionalliga Sud, with nine of its ten games on the road going over, and seven of those hitting four or more (through 10 road games, 5 goals scored, 40 goals allowed). They've also lost by two goals or more in eight of those games, so if Homburg can't pull this one off, I don't know what to tell you. As for Belgium, Lierse have scored 2+ in five of their seven home games this season (Over 3-4) while Saint Gilloise have been an over machine on the road with 7 straight overs to start the season, and 12 straight going back to last season (including friendlies).

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 17-14-2, -0.66

Adding:

11/11/2016 7:00 PM Ecuador Soccer 1951 Mushuc Runa (ECU)/El Nacional (ECU)* Over 2½ -121

*Well, that was a waste of an afternoon... I'll see what I can come up with in Mexico for later.

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/11/2016 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 2321 Deportivo Tepic (MEX-2)/Mineros de Zacatecas (MEX-2)* Over 2½ -120
11/11/2016 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 2327 Loros de Colima (MEX-2)/Atlante (MEX-2)* Over 2½ -125

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 20-14-2, +2.34

Saturday:

11/12/2016 10:00 AM England Soccer 357 Morecambe (ENG-Two)/Wycombe (ENG-Two)* Over 2½ -127
11/12/2016 10:00 AM Germany Soccer 1310 Meppen (GER-R North)/Hannover II (GER-R North)* Over 2½,3 -125
11/12/2016 11:00 AM Belgium Soccer 1901 OH Leuven (BEL-2)/Lommel United (BEL-2)* Over 2½ -117

*Morecambe's a League Two best 11-4 O/U on the season (Wycombe the exact opposite at 5-10), but the way the team totals are shaded at Pinnacle at the moment (Morecambe OV 0.75 -151, Wycombe OV 1.75 +105) suggests there should be goals. Meppen the best over team in Regionalliga Nord at 12-3 (7-0 on the road), while Hannover II comes in at 8-7. And the over's gone 8-2 the last 10 H2H between Leuven and Lommel.

 

[KJ]

I just assume you win all of these lower league games hugh

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 22-15-2, +3.07

Adding:

11/12/2016 6:00 PM European Cup Soccer 4022 Olimpia Asuncion (ClubFriendly)/River Plate (ClubFriendly)* Over 2½ -134
11/12/2016 8:00 PM Mexico Soccer 2707 UAEM Potros (MEX-2)/Cafetaleros de Tapachula (MEX-2)* Over 2½ -105
11/12/2016 8:00 PM New Zealand Soccer 2907 Wellington Phoenix II (NZL-P)/Canterbury United (NZL-P)* Over 3½ -118

*Hard to apply league stats to these friendlies, but Olimpia's been on an over tear this season in domestic action with the over hitting at a clip of 26-13. Six of their last seven competitive matches have gone over, with all six overs featuring four goals or more. As for River, five of their last seven have gone over, and nine of their last eleven at the Monumental have had at least two goals (7-2 O/U 2.5). It's a friendly so who knows, but hopefully defensive tactics get thrown out the window in this one. The Mexican match not as straight forward (both teams 7-9 O/U on the season) but a) the over and BTTS have hit in three of Cafataleros' last four, b) the over and BTTS have hit in four of UAEM's last five and c) the team totals at Pinnacle are juiced through the roof (Cafataleros Over 1 -202, UAEM Over 1 -134) so, at the very least, there should be two goals in this one, hopefully 3. And what a joy (or potentially a curse) that 5Dimes is finally offering totals on New Zealand. Both teams were cash cows for the over last season, especially the Wellington Phoenix Reserves who hit Over 3.5 in six of their seven road games last season). As my esteemed colleague dylanphan might say, probably end in a scoreless draw.

Thanks kj - no, not quite, although we came close...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 24-16-2, +4.02

Sunday:

11/13/2016 1:00 AM Australia Soccer 5136 Perth Glory (AUS-A)/Sydney FC (AUS-A)* Over 2½,3 -127
11/13/2016 6:30 AM Italy Soccer 301 Pisa (ITA-B)/Cesena (ITA-B)* Under 2,2½ -142
11/13/2016 7:45 AM Denmark Soccer 1401 Skive (DEN-1)/Naestved (DEN-1)* Over 2½ -115
11/13/2016 7:45 AM Denmark Soccer 1410 AB Copenhagen (DEN-1)/Vendsyssel (DEN-1)* Over 2½,3 -107

11/13/2016 8:00 AM Germany Soccer 710 Hansa Luneburg (GER-R North)* -1 -104 vs Eichede (GER-R North)
11/13/2016 9:00 AM Italy Soccer 304 Novara (ITA-B)/Verona (ITA-B)* Over 2½ -113
11/13/2016 9:00 AM Sweden Soccer 2601 Norrby IF (SWE-Cup)/Assyriska (SWE-Cup)* Over 2½ -115
11/13/2016 9:15 AM England Soccer 254 Sheffield United (ENG-One)/Chesterfield (ENG-One)* Over 2½ -112

*Tried to cut it down, but it is what it is...

 

[hugh613]

Adding:

11/13/2016 11:30 AM Wales Soccer 2910 Newi Cefn Druids (WAL-P)/Carmarthen Town (WAL-P)* Over 2½,3 -118
11/13/2016 12:00 PM Spain Soccer 611 Sanluqueno (ESP-B4)/FC Cartagena (ESP-B4)* Over 2½ -119
11/13/2016 12:00 PM Algeria Soccer 901 CS Constantine (ALG)/MC Alger (ALG)* Over 2 -111

*So far, so good, although it'd be nice if Verona finally score (scored 2+ in each of their eight home games since dropping down from Serie A, nothing yet...)

 

[hugh613]

Guess a Novara goal's just as good. Now let's get one more in England...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 32-17-4, +9.83

Adding:

11/13/2016 2:30 PM Italy Soccer 422 Fondi (ITA-Pro C)/Matera (ITA-Pro C)* Over 2,2½ -138
11/13/2016 2:45 PM International Soccer 119 Estonia (WC-Qual)/Belgium (WC-Qual)* Over 1½ -130 for 1st Half
11/13/2016 3:00 PM Costa Rica Soccer 1308 Deportivo Saprissa (CRC)* -1½ -119 vs Municipal Liberia (CRC)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 34-18-4, +10.45

Adding:

11/13/2016 5:15 PM Uruguay Soccer 2810 Penarol Montevideo (URU)/Racing (URU)* Over 2½ -129

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 35-18-4, +11.45

Adding:

11/13/2016 7:00 PM Colombia Soccer 1201 Junior (COL-Copa)/Atletico Nacional (COL-Copa)* Over 2½ -102

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 36-18-4, +12.45

Monday:

11/14/2016 1:00 AM Women Intl Soccer 804 Venezuela U20 (W-World Cup)/Germany U20 (W-World Cup)* Over 3½ -148

*Apparently kj's my good luck charm... Anyways, the Germans are the defending champions and favourites to win once again, so looking for them to romp in their opener (the AH at 5Dimes is -2,2.5 -189, so that ain't happening, but the total seems like a good compromise, especially if Venezuela manage to sneak one in...)

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 37-18-4, +13.45

Adding:

11/14/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 51 Bath City (ENG-Conf S)/Wealdstone (ENG-Conf S)* Over 2½ -157

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 37-19-4, +11.88

Adding:

11/14/2016 6:30 PM Chile Soccer 601 Union Espanola (CHI-Cup)/Everton De Vina (CHI-Cup)* Over 3 -111

*Figures the one time all weekend anyone decides to tail, and it loses - sorry guys. And I wrote this one up the first leg, but the over's now 8-2 the last 10 H2H, so hopefully Espanola decides to turn it up a little.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 37-20-4, +10.77

Tuesday:

11/15/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 307 Alfreton (ENG-FA Cup)/Newport County (ENG-FA Cup)* Over 3 -136
11/15/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 316 Southport (ENG-FA Cup)/Fleetwood Town (ENG-FA Cup)* Over 3 -109
11/15/2016 2:45 PM England Soccer 801 Gainsborough Trinity (ENG-Conf N)/Stockport (ENG-Conf N)* Over 3 -111

*A 20-4-2 weekend (yeah, I know, I can't believe it either) brought to a screeching halt with one goal and two losses yesterday. Hopefully this isn't the beginning of the end (Gainsborough's 8-0 O/U 2.5 on the road, and 7-1 O/U 3.5 on the road so if I can't hit that one, that's pretty much confirmation that dark days lay ahead...) And just looking at the schedule, I notice there's a team called "Ramsbottom United" in England. If they ever play "Middelfart FC" from Denmark, the memes could be epic...

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 37-23-4, +7.21

Thursday:

11/17/2016 12:00 PM Denmark Soccer 501 Naestved (DEN-1)/Vejle (DEN-1)* Over 2½ -117

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 38-23-4, +8.21

Adding:

11/17/2016 4:30 PM Brazil Soccer 101 Vitoria BA (BRA-A)/Santos SP (BRA-A)* Over 2½ -148

*Nothing about this game says 'over' to me, but money keeps pouring in, and both team totals are juiced to the hilt, so...

:idk:

 

[KJ]

Sometimes it's just best to not know. Get it hugh

 

[hugh613]

Sometimes it's just best to not know.

Like the time a few years ago when I picked up that girl at the club who may or may not have been 17...

eacesigns:

 

[Monger]

Good shit, Hugh. :shake:

 

[KJ]

:beer4:

she mighta been 17 and a half, who knows?

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 39-23-4, +9.21

Adding:

11/17/2016 7:00 PM Colombia Soccer 401 Atletico Nacional (COL-Copa)/Junior (COL-Copa)* Over 2½ -115

*Strange situation in that this is the third straight meeting between Junior Baranquilla and Atletico Nacional. First two went over, and Junior's on a six game over run, so let's see what game number three has to offer...

Thanks Monger and kj.

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 39-24-4, +8.06

Adding:

11/17/2016 10:30 PM Mexico Soccer 904 Mineros de Zacatecas (MEX-2)/Cimarrones de Sonora (MEX-2)* Over 2½ +103
11/18/2016 3:50 AM Australia Soccer 2001 Melbourne City (AUS-A)/West Sydney (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -158
11/18/2016 6:00 AM Australia Soccer 1151 Adelaide United (AUS-A)/Perth Glory (AUS-A)* Over 2½ -146

 

[hugh613]

MTD: 41-25-4, +8.51

Saturday:

11/19/2016 5:00 AM Asia Soccer 2201 Al Ain (AFC-CL)/Jeonbuk (AFC-CL)* Over 2½ -114
11/19/2016 7:00 AM Germany Soccer 1851 Bayreuth (GER-R Bayern)/Garching (GER-R Bayern)* Over 2½,3 -113
11/19/2016 7:15 AM England Soccer 751 Lincoln (ENG-Nat)/Forest Green (ENG-Nat)* Over 2½ -116