November 1st-3rd Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Last week ended up being great. Hit my most confident bet of the year easily on Ohio St. Hands down the best team right now. They showed they have the offense against good defenses last night. This team is better all-around than last years outfit in my opinion. The ASU comeback was exhilarating last night. I mean, thats as excited as I have been watching a game in awhile. You can ask a few of the guys here I was talking to via the cell in that 4th quarter. Good times. Colly St continues to just play out the string and Iowa prevailed in a kooky game against MSU. Tail of two halves no doubt.

Always look back on the losses. Lost the Iowa under because of OT. I think its the Iowa prevent though that pisses me off most after a dominant second half of defense. I had Kent St and they kicked too many FG's early. That being said the had a GREAT shot at the backdoor under 3:00 left but couldn't score inside the twenty after moving ball well all day. South Florida, bad bet by me. Sucks though, we should of had OT and a chance for a win or push. All in all, A very satisfying week.

This looks like a very small week in all honesty. Its Michigan-Michigan State week. I will provide a lot on this game as the week goes on. Lets start with some articles....

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IOWA CITY, Iowa -- Michigan week looms, so the familiar rival made equally familiar promises, to regroup and refocus, to put another loss in the background.

They have said it all before, to tepid results.
Michigan State lost Saturday to Iowa, which should shock no one as much as how.
The Spartans lost to a place-kicker and a punter, for goodness' sake.
They lost to a passer in Jake Christensen who can't throw, and a running game that had not scored a touchdown in Big Ten Conference play before Saturday.
The Spartans took their top-ranked Big Ten offense to play the last-ranked one, yet lost.
The Spartans had a 300-yard passer, a 200-yard all-purpose player, a 100-yard rusher, a 100-yard receiver, allowed only 20 points in regulation, yet lost.
The Spartans ran 37 more offensive plays than the Hawkeyes, yet lost.
The Spartans possessed the ball almost 13 minutes longer, gained 185 more yards and 10 more first downs, yet lost.
Fans stormed the field and security officials quickly dismantled the goalposts so no one could tear them down after Iowa's 34-27, two-overtime victory, which demonstrates just how troubled the Hawkeyes' season has been. Who rushes the field after beating Michigan State?
On the other side, a predictable story resounded.
Another season of might-have-beens took recognizable shape after another failure of the spirit, similar to so many others that have kept the Spartans out of postseason bowls the last three years. With each loss, the possibilities diminish. A nine-win season vanished Saturday, and any chance at a Florida-based bowl with it. At 5-4, with a pair of overtime losses to underdogs, there are no guarantees.
They came to Iowa chugging toward bowl eligibility, with this game circled and asterisked, against a team with five losses in its last six games, and left with their own extended streak of ugly L's instead. That's four in the last five games, nothing new in Spartan Nation, when something new is precisely what regime change was supposed to harken.
"There were so many opportunities, when you look at the four games we lost, for us to have won those games," Spartans coach Mark Dantonio said. "But that's why they call it a team. It's all-inclusive and everybody has a hand in that. We have to accept that fact and keep pushing."
They had this one. They led 17-3. Iowa had negative total offense in the first quarter, and 9 passing yards at halftime. The Hawkeyes, who usually seem to play with a verve exceeding their raw skills, seemed sparkless.
Then, they sparkled.
The opposing defense helped. The Hawkeyes tore off their two longest runs of the season, 30 and 29 yards, plus a 26-yarder which tied their previous season-best. And after Iowa couldn't throw the ball for four quarters, it stunned the Spartans by passing for more yards in the first overtime than in all of regulation.
The opposing offense helped, too. The Spartans' first six possessions of the second half included two sacks, three holding penalties, an illegal shift that negated a first down, and a lost fumble. On the game's final play, a fourth-and-13 from the 16-yard line, quarterback Bryan Hoyer checked down to Devin Thomas for a short gain, rather than force a pass to Kellen Davis in the end zone.
The decision would qualify as admirable at any other time. But under the fourth-down desperation of overtime, it qualified as doing exactly what Iowa wanted.
"You don't want to force something to Kellen when you've got your playmaker, your go-to guy, out in the flat, one on one," Hoyer said. "I don't think, at that time, it was worth throwing it into a tight coverage."
The Spartans easily could be 7-2 and pondering an attractive bowl, rather than risking another year without postseason. They vowed to persevere and fight through the latest bout of adversity, yet the truth remains that they lost their discipline against Iowa, just as they did against Northwestern.
It all left little reason to expect better against ultra-disciplined Michigan, save for the unpredictability of a rivalry, and a litany of the same old promises.

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IOWA CITY, Iowa -- For the second straight week, the Michigan State defense was only a few maddening plays away from perfection.

Make that big plays by the opposition, which have gone against the Spartans all season long.
Iowa used key long-gainers to overcome an overwhelming statistical disadvantage in Saturday's 34-27 double-overtime victory over MSU in Kinnick Stadium.
Shortly after MSU took a 10-0 second-quarter lead on Brett Swenson's career-long-tying 46-yard field goal, Hawkeyes running back Damian Sims broke free for a 30-yard run, the longest by an Iowa player this season.
That play led to a 43-yard Daniel Murray field goal.
Hawkeyes running back Albert Young cut MSU's lead to 17-10 in the third quarter with a 26-yard touchdown run. And Young's 15- and 29-yard runs on Iowa's next possession set up his 3-yard scoring run that tied the score at 17-17.
Iowa's touchdown in the first overtime period was a 23-yard pass from quarterback Jake Christensen to split end Paul Chaney Jr.
"Everyone was fired up and we thought we had them," said redshirt freshman linebacker Eric Gordon. "We just didn't execute. They came out and weren't quitting at all. We just had mistakes (and) people not going to the proper gaps."
The Spartans held Iowa to just three first downs and 71 yards in the first half.
"All we ask our kids to do is play four quarters and today we had four quarters and two overtimes," defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi said. "I was really happy for what they did in the first half and we came out in the third quarter and did not play as well we needed to and did not make tackles when we needed to.
"We then played a very solid fourth quarter and got the ball back for to offense. We went into the overtime and I thought the game was over, to be honest. I thought our defense would go out there and go four-and-out.
"Give Iowa credit. They made the blocks they needed they needed to make, the tailback made plays and we didn't."
Why not?
"We just didn't make tackles," said defensive end Jonal Saint-Dic, who had three tackles, all assisted and none behind the line. "We were there. We've just got wrap them up and bring them down. We should have had more gang tackles."
Spartans shorthanded

The Spartans were shorthanded on defense because SirDarean Adams, who was scheduled to start at outside linebacker, didn't make the trip, and sophomore defensive back T.J. Williams played only on special teams.
Coach Mark Dantonio would not say why he left Adams in East Lansing but said it wasn't related to his and Williams' arraignment on felony unarmed robbery charges last Wednesday.
How much did MSU miss Adams?
"Pretty badly" Gordon said. "He helps out a lot with the depth at linebacker. He's fast and he's a good player."
Rushing milestone

With a 4-yard stumbling run up the middle in the first quarter, Spartans running back Javon Ringer got the 19th yard he needed to become MSU's first 1,000-yard rusher since T.J. Duckett gained 1,420 in 2001.
Ringer finished with 23 carries for 103 yards, giving him 1,084 yards going into next Saturday's game against Michigan in Spartan Stadium.
Big boot

The biggest momentum swing in the game came in the fourth quarter with Iowa facing fourth-and-1 at its own 18-yard line. Ryan Donahue not only punted the Hawkeyes out of trouble, his 82-yard kick is second in school history only to Lonnie Rodgers' 83-yarder against Oregon in 1962.
Donahue's kick made stopped just a half-yard into the end zone for a touchback. However, after MSU's ensuing possession stalled after being backed up by a personal foul penalty, freshman Aaron Bates' punt went just 25 yards to the Spartan 41.
Iowa scored its go-ahead field goal on the next possession.
If Donahue is named Big Ten Special Teams Player of the Week, he would be the fifth player to win such honors after playing MSU this season.
In control early

Leading 17-3, the Spartans appeared to have command of the game at halftime.
"I don't think we came out overconfident," said quarterback Brian Hoyer. "We said they were going to come out and tough and not give it to us. But we've got to come out more fired-up and ready to go."
Struggling in the Big Ten

The loss was MSU's 20th in its last 25 Big Ten games and 2-14 in their last 16 league games dating back to 2005. The Spartans (5-4, 1-4 Big Ten) have lost six in a row in Iowa City dating back to '94.

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The Big Ten Conference office has just released the time and television for Saturday's game between Michigan and Michigan State. It will be played at 3:30 p.m. on ABC, negating fears by in-state fans that it would be put on the Big Ten Network, which most people don't have.

Instead, it is Wisconsin at No. 1 Ohio State that is going on the Big Ten Network at noon.
The conference also released television plans for games on Nov. 10. Michigan's game at Wisconsin will start at noon on ESPN.

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One Heisman Trophy candidate and two big question marks.

That's how most college football observers sized up the University of Michigan's running backs at the start of the season, and for two months, that analysis looked spot on.
The Wolverines are no closer to clarifying who serves as Mike Hart's official backup after Saturday's game, a 34-10 win over Minnesota.
But instead of choosing between unknowns, U-M's coaches can now weigh reliable alternatives.
Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor ran over and wore down the Minnesota defense Saturday. They combined for 294 of Michigan's 307 rushing yards, a season high for the team, giving the Wolverines two 100-yard rushers for the first time since last year's win over Ball State.
"I thought they really complemented each other, and both showed signs, real signs, of progress,'' coach Lloyd Carr said.
Their performances marked personal breakthroughs - and showed what U-M's offense can accomplish without Hart in the lineup.
Minor carried 21 times for 157 yards and a touchdown. Brown rushed 13 times for 137 yards and two touchdowns. Both marks were career highs.
Until last week at Illinois, neither had seen significant duty. Both had occasionally given Hart a breather or seen mop-up time, so the question marks remained.
When it became apparent the rushing attack would be on their shoulders for a second straight week because Hart was still sidelined with an ankle injury, they seized the opportunity.
"We made sure we were prepared,'' said Minor, who didn't learn Hart would be sidelined again until Friday. "We were ready to take control of the game, and we did.''
Michigan only led by three points at halftime, and it didn't fully claim control until the second half, in which Minor and Brown accumulated nearly 70 percent of their yardage.
First, Minor did his part in ripping the game wide open with a 46-yard run through the middle of the Gopher defense with 11:02 remaining in the third quarter.
Once the Wolverines tired out Minnesota's defense and added to their lead, Brown got his chance at a long run.
With 8:37 left in the game, he took two quick steps through the line of scrimmage at his own 15-yard line, then saw nothing but open field. A few defenders gave chase, but he was well on his way to an 85-yard touchdown that made the rout official, at 34-10.
"Man, I wish it felt like that every time,'' Brown said. "It felt good. The line made the hole. The fullback blocked his guy. The receivers blocked downfield. They got me to the open field, and once they get me there, I know what it's time to do.''
Last week against Illinois, he showed similar flashes in a 25-carry, 113-yard effort, but never quite established a rhythm like he did against Minnesota.
Two consecutive 100-yard efforts have done plenty for Brown's confidence. For a while, it was a trait in short supply.
He openly considered leaving the program last spring. Coaches experimented with him at cornerback; as a result, he saw limited repetitions at tailback. A broken hand further limited his experience.
Minor, also a sophomore, had suffered an ankle injury that stunted his development earlier this season.
From Carr's perspective, it was only a matter of time before the pair overcame those roadblocks. Saturday, both realized the potential the coach had seen for more than a year.
"The one thing Carlos did his first spring here was that he made some long runs against our defense,'' Carr said. "He can run - run fast. ...
"As a young back, regardless of the scheme you're in, it takes a while to get the reads down,'' Carr said. "We're very pleased they can make this kind of progress, and their confidence will grow leaps and bounds from the experience they've gained the last two weeks.''
Hart is expected to resume his starting duties against Michigan State on Saturday. Carr enters the game more comfortable knowing that Hart's backups have gained valuable experience.
Brown never had much doubt that he and Minor would erase any questions.
"We've known all along there's two quality backs behind Mike Hart,'' he said. "We all know there's three great backs here.''

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ANN ARBOR -- Next season, the University of Michigan's offensive hopes will rest on the shoulder pads of true freshman Ryan Mallett at quarterback and the running combination of sophomores Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor.

But the pressing question of the present is: Can the young trio get the job done now while the team waits for senior stars Chad Henne's sprained throwing shoulder and Mike Hart's high ankle sprain try to come around? Michigan is heading into a most critical final three-game stretch.
Another question: Can Michigan continue to play poor first-half football as it has so many times this season, and get away with it? The Wolverines travel this week to Michigan State and in two weeks to Wisconsin and then host No. 1 Ohio State with the Big Ten championship hanging in the balance?
If you enjoy watching an acorn take years to grow into a healthy oak tree, then you thoroughly enjoyed the first 15 minutes and 12 seconds of Saturday's 34-10 win over a very poor and terribly young Minnesota team.
Michigan, for the most part, sleepwalked through that stretch. Mallett and the Wolverines offense were particularly sluggish, making Minnesota's defense -- the worst in the nation, allowing 533.6 yards per game and while starting true freshmen in the secondary -- look almost bulletproof. On its first four possessions, U-M punted, lost a fumble and had a pair of three-and-out series.
The Gophers led 3-0 after the first quarter with a 29-yard Joel Monroe field goal, and with help from a 102-53 advantage in total offense. It became 10-0 at the onset of the second quarter when Mallett muffed his third center snap in a week. He then watched Minnesota strong safety Dominque Barber scoop the football up and ramble 46 yards for a score.
Keep in mind this is the same U-M squad that, according last week to free safety Brandon Englemon, has learned not to overlook anyone after that demoralizing season-opening loss to Football Championship Subdivision defending champion Appalachian State.
"We didn't overlook Minnesota," Englemon said Saturday night. "Give them credit for playing well until we got our acts together in this one."
Can U-M survive the next three weeks?
"We have to play a lot better than this, and get off to much faster starts, if we're to win our last three," said tackle Jake Long.
To their credit, the Wolverines did right the ship in the final 14 1/2 minutes of the first half to gain a 13-10 halftime lead with help from 26- and 43-yard field goals from K.C. Lopata and Minor's 2-yard touchdown run. Michigan also woke up enough to swing momentum in its favor by taking 224 total yards into halftime compared to 124 for the Gophers.
But, as was the case early in the season, the Wolverines struggled to put an opponent away after listless starts, and never had a comfortable lead until Brown's 5-yard touchdown run made it a 20-10 advantage with 3:18 left in the third quarter.
Remember, this is a Minnesota team whose eight losses include setbacks to Florida Atlantic and last week at home against Championship Subdivision member North Dakota State. And whose starting lineup not only included those three freshman in the defensive backfield, but freshman quarterback Adam Weber, freshman running back Duane Bennett and two freshmen at right guard and right tackle as first-year Minnesota coach Tim Brewster looks toward the future.
Bennett, by the way, also collected 106 yards on 20 carries.
Brown and Minor both had 100-yard games of their own and combined for three touchdowns. They are good as a twosome, but, combined, they still aren't a Mike Hart.
Mallett was 11-for-20 passing for 233 yards and a scoring toss. He is cocky, shows flashes of stardom every now and again and could someday be the All-American many say he will be.
But Mallett also reminds us too often that he's still just a freshman who, at times, holds the football too long before releasing a pass, suffers too many overthrows or skipped passes on third-down tries, and who appears to simply lose his concentration while on the field.
The offensive future is a bright one at Michigan because of Brown, Henne and Minor. But for the final three games of the regular season, whether the Wolverines can earn another Big Ten title will be contingent largely on Hart and Henne.
"I'll be ready to play," Hart said as he left the locker room.
He also has said that the past two weeks.
Michigan fans are hoping that this time he's right.

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Here are the plays locked in so far:

BYU -21 -110 2 units
ASU +7 -110
Tulsa -6.5 -110
S. Carolina +4.5 -110


analysis and discussion on these plays to follow later tonight and next few days. any specifi questions on any game I will answer to best of my ability
 
GL this week BAR - love the South Carolina play.

Quick question - was leaning Colorado St. here. Is part of the basis for the BYU play the fact that Colorado St. has seemingly quit? Although they look like they are going through the motions, this line still struck me as high. Wondering just how bad it is for the Rams as you have had success fading them this season.
 
GL this week BAR - love the South Carolina play.

Quick question - was leaning Colorado St. here. Is part of the basis for the BYU play the fact that Colorado St. has seemingly quit? Although they look like they are going through the motions, this line still struck me as high. Wondering just how bad it is for the Rams as you have had success fading them this season.

Thanks man.

A few things there. Yes, I believe they have quit. Granted they beat UNLV but any game in Vegas is bound to have something funky to it. The 600 yards the Rebels had was begated by turnovers and stupidty. I just think any game Colly St gets down early in they pack it in. Sonny is a great guy but the fact is he has lost this team. Look back at first few weeks. The ghames they played great in but just couldn't close. It took a huge toll in my opinion. I also find them quite shady, and that always helps.
 
This past weekend was unreal, back to back prime time games..just a great way to end a day.

Still riding with ASU eh? I hope that line gets higher, interested to see what happens. I love this ASU team..they just can't get behind early.
 
I am extremely confused by that SC line. I did not know Arkansas was worthy of laying this many? I could've very easily seen this game being around a PK.
 
I am extremely confused by that SC line. I did not know Arkansas was worthy of laying this many? I could've very easily seen this game being around a PK.

It was higher...

I know someone..maybe signal-caller grabbed 6.

It was a flat 5 when i made my first 3 plays then a 4.5 when I got down on it
 
BAR, whats your lean on Mich-Mich St?? I like giving the points here because even though it was Minnesota, they looked like they can contribute, and with Hart and Henne getting what i believe was planned rest, I think they are ready too. Would love your thoughts. And with ASU, they have relied on being off early and I do not like this situation, going to Eugene.
 
Also , kind of like Tulsa here. How does that game play out in your eyes ??

I think the big opening number in the arkansas contest has to do with the matchup of arkansas rush attack vs bad usc rush defense coupled with usc recent struggles to score along with arkansas seemingly improved defense. last few weeks made linesmakers inflate it i guess. Shouldn't this be arkansas -1 or 2 ?? seems like value getting the number over the "3" and the "4".

gl this week BAR ... looking to ride and not collide !!
 
i already got byu and tulsa ... i shall wait for more of your analysis before betting asu ... prolly will stay away from south carolina ... good luck ...

:cheers:
 
BAR, whats your lean on Mich-Mich St?? I like giving the points here because even though it was Minnesota, they looked like they can contribute, and with Hart and Henne getting what i believe was planned rest, I think they are ready too. Would love your thoughts. And with ASU, they have relied on being off early and I do not like this situation, going to Eugene.
I totally understand with the slow starts and ASU. Thats why it is a small play right now. I think they can win on the field. I wanted to lock that 7 in for now and move further into research.

As for MSU-UM....my current lean is actually on Michigan.

I'll have much more on that game Tuesday.
 
Also , kind of like Tulsa here. How does that game play out in your eyes ??

I think the big opening number in the arkansas contest has to do with the matchup of arkansas rush attack vs bad usc rush defense coupled with usc recent struggles to score along with arkansas seemingly improved defense. last few weeks made linesmakers inflate it i guess. Shouldn't this be arkansas -1 or 2 ?? seems like value getting the number over the "3" and the "4".

gl this week BAR ... looking to ride and not collide !!

Tulsa-Tulane will be a high-scoring affair. I just think on the fast turf that Tulsa will be scoring just about every drive. Their defense is garbage but Tulane will make a few mistakes. I see a 45-30 type of affair.
 
Doesn't Spurriier have a good record after a loss?

well umm he just lost back 2 back games!

honestly, there is no way to make a play on this game today either way, the emotional state of the gamecocks after losing that game, I don't even know. I know I couldnt read about college football until today. I will get my notes together and all that for this upcoming game in a thread and I like the Gamecock side but I can't lock it in until I see some positive shit in practice this week. The UT end result was heartbreaking for every1
 
Smith should be the difference in this game for Tulsa, I would think. I wish this game were at Tulsa. I'd lay as much as 17, I think...

What's the probability the Tulane team that showed up against LSU comes to play?

IMO, Oregon is a little like Hawaii in that they seem to be a different team at home, especially on defense. They just seem to be more agressive and faster at home. I can't explain it. They just are. I think Dixon get his against anybody. My concern is the Oregon defense vs. ASU offense. I could easily see Rudy being harassed all day and throwing a couple picks, especially early in the game. That could be the difference. Probably a no-play for me, so good luck. I'll at least wait to hear what bjorks has to say, I guess...
 
Al,

I met with Jamie Morris today for work. He stated that Michael Hart is 100% and looked great at practice this week. He said both Henne and Hart could have easily played last week.

I think Michigan rolls.
 
Al,

I met with Jamie Morris today for work. He stated that Michael Hart is 100% and looked great at practice this week. He said both Henne and Hart could have easily played last week.

I think Michigan rolls.
LOL

Funny, because its time to post I played it...

Great info though...

Michigan -4 -110 4 units
 
"Win or lose, I'm done with football for the season..."

1st Quarter 5:42
Ohio State @ Penn State

-B.A.R.
 
:drinking:


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Lets talk Buckeyes and Badgers First

I hope for any non-believers that last weeks PSU-OSU game woke you up to hom good this Buckeye team is. Of course I hate to say that the team from Indiana East is the best in the land but the fact is they are at this point. I still say they are equal to or better than last year. This is a Tressel team to a tee. Much like the championship team but with a smoother offense. I like the offensive 'system' they have in place. Its fun to watch for a pure football fan and it gets results. Was a little suprised by the first qtr defense last week but they buckled down.

Remember he Saturday night Iowa-Wisconsin game? Remember how Wisky could do absolutely nothing on offense for 95 percent of that game? Exactly. Iowa has a nice defense. The Buckeyes have a great defense. Tyler gets pressured and he gets flustered. PJ or no PJ I see this Wisky offense doing next to nothing. Much like the PSU game on the road. This line isn't too high guys. Wisky with injuries and inconsitency this year has tailed off.

I know its a semi-letdown spot and even an early game as JOB said but that doesn'ty worry me with sweatervest. They will control game early and often and should win by 20+

Buckeyes 33-7

*I may add another unit to this play*
 
The 100th Meeting between MSU-UM

There is a lot to talk about regarding this game. I am going to ramble on a bit here and will add for next few days as well.

Lets talk about the Dantoni factor first. He is a sweatervest disciple and at last years Sparty-Blue hoops game at Breslin he made a Tressel like proclamation to the MSU faithful about beating Michigan. It worked for Tressel, why not for Dantoni. He knows in order to become a power in the Big Ten and compete for top recruits its a must to compete with UM annually. Its been many years since Sparty won. They have blown two games in OT since the infamous "Clock play" TD by Duckett back in 2001 at Spartan Stadium. Dantoni, depsite some of the loses this season has done a wonderful job IMO. ast week he got "Spartanized" as in seeing wehat a typical MSU meltdown is like. His job is to get this team ready emotionally for this week. Its going to be tough but at same point they have to be.

Michigan lost to Appy and Oregon early. They have been cruising since then. We have yet to see UM fully healthy at once but some good stuff has happened as the season has went on. The offensive line has totally jelled. Manningham and Arrington are starting to make plays..a new FG kicker has emerged and most important the secondary has become very good as opposed to scurry in week one.

Michigan players biggest rival is OSU of course. MSU is like the step-child in the rivalry. The thing is this year is Michigan has a lot of motivation due to two things; the countdown clock in teh MSU lockeroom to this game and how Dantoni and some players mocked the Appy loss. Michiagn is supremely motivated to take this game.

Remember what I say about betting Michigan. Short road favorite or road dog and short home favorite. Golden opportunities.

How this game goes:

Two years ago a banged up UM team went into Spartan Stadium as a dog. Mike Hart was finally health yand he just willed UM to an OT victory. He was sensational and MSU had no way to stop him. Hill, Wells and Young have all done great against MSU this year. Hart is healthy enough and ready to roll. I expect 200-250 from him Saturday as UM will just control the ball all game long. MSU will be able to move ball a bit not consitently.

More to come on this game later...

Michigan 27
MSU 14
 
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