No one ever wins on the Smurf Turf.....Hawaii at Boise....




Hawaiiguy

Hawaiiguy

Big Kahuna
Notes:

- My bad on the Over 58 call in the UNLV game. Correctly called that UH would continue their offensive roll as they piled on nearly 600 yards of total offense on UNLV, and scored exactly what I predicted, 42 points. However, I misjudged UNLV's ability to score with an injured QB (Hinds). Why Hinds was left in the game when it was obvious to everyone he was playing injured was beyond me......It hurts a bit when Hawaii failed to score on the 1 yard line.....and let everyone, including the cheerleaders play in the fourth quarter....

- Hawaii's rush defense is very good this year....It could be the best I have seen 20 years......
surprised.gif
. In two games, Hawaii has yielded a mere 164 yards on 64 carries (2.56 ypc). Our front 7 is big, athletic,fast, and has some depth.....

- An interesting note (that has nothing to do with capping the game), for those that will watch this game on ESPN GamePlan this weekend...... Hawaii in pre-game warmups has started doing the traditional war dance/chat "haka" that many of you have seen on YouTube, made famous by the New Zealand All Blacks Rugby Team. When I first heard about this, I thought "wtf".....I gotta admit, it is impressive to see, and it is here to stay....When 60 Black Uniformed Players Lined up and started a war chant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama it was amazing....Coach Mike Shula of Alabama noted, "That is impressive, and shows some serious team unity. Hawaii has got to keep it....."


My Pick and Reason Why:

Two years ago, I called Hawaii to lose by over 40 points at Boise as 24 point underdogs.....they lost by 66 points.....69 to 3.......

I am placing my bet early.....I think it may go against me......

No one ever wins on the Smurf Turf.......BUT HAWAII WILL......

Hawaii +14

- I was at Hawaii's Loss to Boise last year 44-41......Hawaii outgained, out first downed, and outplayed Boise in every area......except for special teams, where Hawaii had a punt blocked and an extra point blocked and returned for 2 points (the deciding difference).....

- Boise State QB Jared Zabransky is now in his fourth year, the amazing thing is he keeps getting worse....His TD to interception ratio is even.....read the Boise press, even the fans are grumbling......time for him to get out.....

- Boise State's main weapon will be RB Ian Johnson, sure he looked like Barry Sanders against a putrid Oregon State defense on ESPN......but last week, Wyoming showed he is human.......trust me.....Hawaii is going to eat this guy up, the way they did Kenneth Darby......Hawaii seriously has a fast front 7.....Boise with not run rough shod over Hawaii......not even close......

- You guys know it and I know it.....Hawaii will score a ton on Boise.......Hawaii returns EVERYONE that put up 556 yards and 41 points on Boise Last Year.......

- Hawaii is healthy and is coming off of a vacation game against UNLV.......revenge is on their minds....

As someone noted about Hawaii (credit to them, cant remember their handle), teams coming off of losing season, that played a tough schedule, and have a ton of returning starters, often have the value on them.....The oddsmakers have not caught up to Hawaii yet as being a very good team.....

Hawaii +14 1100 to win 1000
Hawaii ML 100 to win 420
:spank: :spank: :spank:
 
Wow! Thanks, I needed this write-up because I was thinking, "Never bet against Boise on the Smurf turf," but this is a pretty good Hawaii team and I'm thinking dogs dominate this week. Thanks, Hawaiiguy, I may very well be on it!
beer.gif
 
This is +15 at Pinny right now and may go even higher, should we wait??
 
glad ot hear you on this side. i love boise st but hawaii is no cake wak no matter where they pay this week. if it goes pat +14 i will bite on hawaii
 
HG, can't believe CRIS opened this at 10.5 and now it's 15 everywhere. Ridiculous.

I made the game 9.5 and I think Hawaii can win, also. Look forward to watching it!!!!
beer.gif
 
I think the public will continue to pound this game and it will continue to rise. I liked Hawaii early and I really like them now. Great job HG:shake:
 
That is the one thing u really jumped out in the Ala game...no matter how bad their offense is...UH played up to par w/ them physically up front...that's a little different for a Rainbow squad..
 
Great writeup Hawaiiguy! I'm with you on the Rainbow Warriors, but I'll wait to pull the trigger. Most think this line will rise, and if that is the case, I'll jump on the line when it hits 16+. :cheers:
 
Hawaiiguy,

good write-up here...wish I could join you on this one, but in my opinion the line move is warranted...Hawaii has been better on the road with Brennan compared to when Chang was there...just can't go against Boise at their place...can't do it...GL though bud...
 
I wanted to hit Boise State last night before it got to -14, but I was hoping we'd have some thoughts from you on this one early here in the week. Looks like I'll wait to hit the Rainbows at the plus #.
 
HG, I dig ML dogs like this, but you know these teams better than I do.

out of 10 games between these two, how many do you think hawaii actually wins?

ml is lookin real juicy, and I agree with you guys....should go up.
 
Hawaiiguy, I just noticed you ARE a member at this forum, my bad because I am tailing you on this game and included your write up (with credit) in my plays. Apologies in advance bro...
 
Just deleted to post in my thread about this game. GL and thanks again for the insight!
 
love the write up HG, you made a believer out of me. Do you think that line will continue to get better or should be jump on it now?
 
god, covers makes me laugh........didnt realize this play would make so many people upset........lame......

anyway guys, just to clarify, pretty big play for me.....and yes I know all the numbers for Boise, and honestly, over the last 4 years I probably have seen them play more than all of you.....

but, dont be tailing blindly.....I am WRONG 40% of them the time on Hawaii games over the last 4 years......basketball about 34%.......
 
with very few exceptions, covers is getting to be a joke.

HG, this aint covers. you won't be ripped here if hawaii loses...we are all wrong sometimes. I for one know you know hawaii better than I, and I like this play, now.

if we lose, no blame goes to you. :)

might I suggest a ML play of a full 1/5 to 1/4 of your spread play...? if hawaii wins it doubles profit on game, and if hawaii loses or covers it reduces your money slightly, relatively speaking...

thanks for your writeups.
 
Line is at +15 now...anybody think it will go higher? I'm thinking I'll wait until Friday night or Saturday morning.

redbearde - I like the idea of the small M/L play on the Rainbow Warriors...just might join you on that one. :shake:
 
redbearde said:
with very few exceptions, covers is getting to be a joke.

HG, this aint covers. you won't be ripped here if hawaii loses...we are all wrong sometimes. I for one know you know hawaii better than I, and I like this play, now.

if we lose, no blame goes to you. :)

might I suggest a ML play of a full 1/5 to 1/4 of your spread play...? if hawaii wins it doubles profit on game, and if hawaii loses or covers it reduces your money slightly, relatively speaking...

thanks for your writeups.
Click to expand...

:cheers:

the way people are pounding boise, yeah i think the line might go higher.....
 
redbearde said:
with very few exceptions, covers is getting to be a joke.

HG, this aint covers. you won't be ripped here if hawaii loses...we are all wrong sometimes. I for one know you know hawaii better than I, and I like this play, now.

if we lose, no blame goes to you. :)

might I suggest a ML play of a full 1/5 to 1/4 of your spread play...? if hawaii wins it doubles profit on game, and if hawaii loses or covers it reduces your money slightly, relatively speaking...

thanks for your writeups.
Click to expand...

Ditto here, HG!!
beer.gif
 
I'm already on Hawaii +15 and the ML +500.

I think Boise St may be vulnerable too, streaks are made to be broken game is being played in September, not in cold weather months.

My only knock against Hawaii is their ability to protect the ball. Seven turnovers in two games, lets hope they work on that in practice this week.
 
Great thoughts..waiting on the line..but will be on it..

Best of luck..love reading your thoughts
 
Boise State is now the number one weighted game on wagerline with 74%........combined with a 7 point line move.....

I will either look like an idiot for a game that was so obvious, or the public is going to get biggest ass raping of the season......


:spank: :spank: :spank:
 
I like your thoughts on this Hawaiiguy. I think +14 is way too much to spot Hawaii. The public is convinced that everyone gets blown out on smurf turf. There is no question they have the advantage there. I think this is agood value. Good luck!
 
Win or lose HG your insight on this team is the best and certainly gives us here on the mainland very useful info. Thank you and gl always.
 
fuck the public.........fuck trends.......


cap by watching teams play.........

fuck you milne for blowing hawaii's chances to win........


by the way i am drunk.........


easy fuking money...........money; money; money; money;
 
HG.....i don't agree that it was easy money......but your insight was very good and your instinct even better......i always liked reading your take on the warriors games....both in football and hoops.....congrats....it's nice to see things end up like they should......
 
easy may have been if they could have gotten that last TD about 15 minutes earlier.....so they didn't have tokeep coming back and back and back....it would have been easier (nice) to see if boise could have kept the pressure on by coming back time after time......

nice job
 
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