NLCS Discussion - Phillies vs Diamondbacks --

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
I’m sorry snakes, I’ve enjoyed you, I like watching you play, Philly closing out tonight just buried and chance you had. I thought Philly would be -200 so that means

Philly to win series -155 (pretty big).

Phillies -1.5 games +125

These dudes got so close last year and added Turner! They practically invincible at home. Wheeler nola vs snakes is a big edge over Gallen/Kelly vs Philly lineup in that park. Happy for snakes but they got a garbage milw team and the choking dog dodgers. It ends now cause this Philly time.
 
are Philly favs to win it? I didn’t see WS up? To me they are without a doubt the favs, for 2 reasons, 1 I’m not sure who gets out the AL and I think it a virtual lock Philly wins Nl. Secondly I just think the addition of Turner with the Stros pitching not being quite as good would make Philly favs this time. Actually without any kind of capping I’d say Philly vs either texas team would be very close to a pick’em. Which makes Philly the odds on favs right now imo cause im very confident they advancing, wouldn’t be shocked at any result in AL. They both have solid cases. Stros have the pedigree but not like rangers a young team w a bunch of guys who never been here like snakes, rangers have lot of pros who can handle the moment. That gonna be a heck of a series.
 
twinkie13 said:
Philly was rockin last night. They sure look good at home
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I almost never thing teams should get priced higher for being at home, I play ton of road teams cause of this, Philly in the playoffs is a huge exception, the way that lineup (and pitchers) feed off the crowd is insane! I was saying by 2nd-3rd inning I wish I could either live bet from home or had bet Philly cause they were taking one great at bat after another vs strider., I havnt really dug in on Kelly or Gallen vs Philly bats but I don’t love Kelly chances of being able to get thru this lineup multiple times, Gallen has the arsenal of enough different plus pitches to maybe do it, but if he facing wheeler it won’t matter cause wheeler won’t give up anything! I dunno, this gonna be very tough for snakes, if they beat Philly I’ll tip my cap but this a pretty big series bet for me. What happens if snakes go down 0-2 with Kelly and Gallen? Even on road I promise Philly won’t get shut down by pfffffdt or whatever that kid name is. I think Philly wins this in 5, maybe snakes can take 2 ganes but I’m thinking this 4-1..
 
2daBank said:
I almost never thing teams should get priced higher for being at home, I play ton of road teams cause of this, Philly in the playoffs is a huge exception, the way that lineup (and pitchers) feed off the crowd is insane! I was saying by 2nd-3rd inning I wish I could either live bet from home or had bet Philly cause they were taking one great at bat after another vs strider., I havnt really dug in on Kelly or Gallen vs Philly bats but I don’t love Kelly chances of being able to get thru this lineup multiple times, Gallen has the arsenal of enough different plus pitches to maybe do it, but if he facing wheeler it won’t matter cause wheeler won’t give up anything! I dunno, this gonna be very tough for snakes, if they beat Philly I’ll tip my cap but this a pretty big series bet for me. What happens if snakes go down 0-2 with Kelly and Gallen? Even on road I promise Philly won’t get shut down by pfffffdt or whatever that kid name is. I think Philly wins this in 5, maybe snakes can take 2 ganes but I’m thinking this 4-1..
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Exactly my thoughts
 
twinkie13 said:
Exactly my thoughts
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I been wrong before (many many times) but this series feels incredibly easy to cap compared to the all Texas showdown in the AL. I won’t start rambling more in wrong thread just saying either team coming out AL wouldn’t surprise me, if snakes beat Philly I’ll be bout as shocked as if Heat would have won and not got creamed by nuggets! This is Philly time, they were close then they added a mvp type player to lineup and strengthened a pen w more filth. Snakes not even supposed to be here yet, huge props to them, they been a fun team all year, I’ve made plenty of money with them and their 2 stud pitchers! I think the pen is much improved thanks to everyone having a role but I also think they faced a no hitting milw team and perennial chokers who’s buttholes got tighter every time snakes scored a run! Pitching to Philly lineup gonna be a whole lot different for snakes and their lineup won’t be facing old washed up or super young not ready pitchers. This a slam dunk!!!
 
So these go the 2-3-2 format? Man I hate that. I so much prefer 2-2-1-1-1, not like travel matters anymore! So I guess I could see this going to a game 6, 4-2 Philly, I was considering playing Philly -2.5 games +300 cause 4–1 I think but that was thinking game 5 was in Philly., With 2-3-2 I will just stick on Philly -155 (has already been bet up to -170) and Philly -1.5 games +125.
 
Mfer fly all over the country all summer in im sure awesome planes, really don’t see why they have to do this stupid 2-3-2 shit? Why can’t we just play them 2-2-1-1-1 like god intended?!?!! I’m not even saying who it a advantage for? Honestly it ain’t great for the dog cause winning 3 straight vs a good team is hard at any venue! At same time If you can work a split on road then I think you should give yourself a great chance going back up 3-2 instead of down. So I dunno who it worse for? Well I know it worse for me cause I think it stupid! I like the way it supposed to be!
 
Wheeler ov 16.5 outs -120

Can’t believe they set him here, I’ll bet wheeler to go 6 innings every time, 5.2 to cash? Yes please.

Phillies -1 -119

I hate laying the -1.5 at home, don’t like the idea of laying -165ish. All that said I think Philly gets this by multiple runs. If they continue taking the at bats they have at home im not confident the way gallen has pitched these 1st few playoff games he will get into the 6th. We see how improved snakes pen is now that they facing a real challenge. The over is tempting as well but think I’ll just rock with these 2.
 
I’m not crazy bout the idea of playing opposing pitchers at Philly but man, Kelly out total sitting at 13.5? He has went 5 innings or longer in every start this year minus the 1st start of the season. Was very good against this lineup when he faced them this year albeit in zona, he only pitched once in Philly and it was years ago, excellent start but not sure it means much. Turner is the only Philly with great numbers vs him. I’ll say this much, if he doesn’t pitch 5+ this series is basically over. I’m torn here, he will have to be pinpoint with his command to get thru this lineup multiple times without damage but at same time I have a hard time thinking he can’t get outs. Maybe ump is important here, he def needs to get favorable calls on the edges, he gonna have to live on the corners cause Philly showed last night what they will do if he catches too much plate!
 
Small samples but snakes have had some success vs nola, last year nola was fantastic the 1st 2 rounds (much like this year), but after that he wasn’t good in the nlcs or WS. It kinda tough to watch him pitch fantastic vs the Braves and not expect him to be solid here but I am a little concerned. Of the 2 pitchers I think I have to roll with Kelly at that 13.5 out total before nola needing to go 5.1 to cash. I don’t hate either but think numbers say kelly the stronger play.
 
twinkie13 said:
I like that thinking.
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I honestly had no interest playing a pitcher in Philly that not a Philly but 13.5 outs just seemed dumb so despite liking Philly I had to play it. Be nice to get them all! Turner 2+ bags was nice and easy! Lol
 
I seriously dunno how snakes win gm 3 even in zona? They don’t have another starter who can come close to doing what gallen and Kelly did, Philly still got Suarez who not only better than avg but has pitched in plenty of playoff games now. I’m not confident in the snakes “good pen” vs this lineup if they do get a lead. Unless Philly just doesn’t like the dry air in the desert I really have a hard time seeing this going past 5.
 
Is this one an under game? Day game, decent starters. Only fear is how hot Philly is right now. Reminds me of the 2021 Braves run.
 
I just think DBacks get this one. By no means do I think they come back in the series, but think they get em today
 
Ryno14 said:
I just think DBacks get this one. By no means do I think they come back in the series, but think they get em today
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I disagree, I don’t think pffaddt and the pen a good matchup, I trust Suarez way more. Unless the time amd dry air really mess w Philly I just can’t see zona starter getting thru the lineup 2x without damage and don’t think their pen nearly deep enough to cover 5+ innings. I like Philly and their tt ov 4.5.
 
askias said:
Is this one an under game? Day game, decent starters. Only fear is how hot Philly is right now. Reminds me of the 2021 Braves run.
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I like Philly to score 5+, not sure bout snakes. I could see them being held to 2-3 by Suarez and philly pen. I just don’t think pfaddt can get thru the lineup twice without damage and don’t think snakes pen nearly deep enough to cover all the innings I expect they have to pitch in this one.
 
Fml took over w/o looking at ump

Iassogna has been one of the big time under guys forever
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think he can stop Stros from scoring
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Maybe not but I'm sure scaling down the overs, will be lightly bet at best

Favorite play today is SGP Stros/over but it will be a light unit, nothing more than that now
 
Marsski said:
If FF goes to 5.5, might have to play the Eddings under.

What about strike out props, @2daBank....Eddings is good for a call or two
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Might try an Astros ff team total over

Not much a fan once relievers come in every inning for more than half the game that will likely be pretty rewarded for not really being sharp

Not like he doesn't have games that go over but they are infrequent, I'd prefer he'd have done tomorrow night where there will likely be more rhythm than the pen game tonight
 
Marsski said:
If FF goes to 5.5, might have to play the Eddings under.

What about strike out props, @2daBank....Eddings is good for a call or two
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Which pitcher can you trust to go deep tho? I’d think he be a way bigger help to Urquidy if I had to guess, not sure he makes a huge difference for Heaney? Urquidy I def expect to pitch deeper.
 
I have no clue on this game. Looks like snakes are gonna probably use 7-8 pitchers! That tough to freaking cap!! Philly manager handed snakes the last game. I still have no clue why in the fuck after Philly took the 1-0 lead he came with some asshole rookie when it set up perfect for Dominguez/Alvarado/Kimbrel (who I hate!!). It was set up perfect and instead he brings rookie in who quickly gave away the 1 run lead and doesn’t go to Alvarado until it 1st and 3rd no outs!! Just start the inning with him and Philly up 1-0 going into the 9th!!! Inexplicable to me D22ominguez didn’t pitch in a game you coulda all but buried the snakes!! It annoyed me he went with Kimbrel in 9th but fine I won’t kill him for that, but not taking him out and going to Dominguez after he got the lucky out at home and it was 1sy and 2nd 1 out I woulda went to Dominguez! Instead Kimbrel waks yet another in front of marte who snakes hotter hitter and hit every ball very hard!!! Then he left him in to let marte win the game. Just awful imo! That game couldn’t have set up any more perfect for Philly 3 best pen guys (I guess Kimbrel in that!). To slam the door and he put a fucking rookie in instead who didn’t get 1 out!!! Just awful on his part, not second guessing I was screaming it when he brought kerkerimg in as it was stupid!!

Who knows what we get out of Philly starter? No clue if Philly offense finds it here in zona? Still shocked how bad they looked vs pfaddt! Was shocked when I thought snakes made a mistake and brought lhp in and took out pffaddt out to face schearber, he walks schearber and it set up perfect for Turner to get his second hit, cash my total base prop and give Philly a lead and Turner hits a pitchers pitch into the ground for last out! That should have backfired on snakes manager but he got lucky! I’m tempted to go Turner ov 1.5 total bases again. Outside of that not sure what I’m playing yet!!! L
 
so far

Turner 2+ bases . Thought for sure he would get 2nd hit after snakes manager did that crazy move to yank pffadddtt!! He so lucky that didn’t backfire as the lhp walks Schwarber, I was starting to count my money and turner goes and hits a garbage pitchers pitch on 2nd pitch of at bat for fucjing ground out that fucked a good cross sport parlay!!! He gets it back for me his 1st ab tonight!!

Philly ml

Philly tt ov 4.5

If a damn open pen game is able to hold Philly down again so be it!!
 
Mooch should be behind the dish tonight, another one with a larger than avg k zone
 
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