NL Wild Card WAS/MIL Tuesday Night Discussion

askias

askias

Pretty much a regular
Not sure if the mods want to create one thread for the discussion of both games or how they want to handle it, but thought I'd get the ball rolling. On paper, a definite mismatch. Washington is on an eight game winning streak with Max Scherzer on the mound. Washington will also have both Strasburg and Corbin ready to come in, if for some reason Max faltered. Milwaukee meanwhile finished the season with three straight losses, along with its chance to win the NL Central. And Lorenzo's Cain's status, even if he goes, would have to be described as hobbled.

Home field advantage is not as great in MLB, but the game is in DC to the extent that counts for anything. WAS currently around a -170 favorite I believe. Hard for me to see how Washington does not win this game, but of course anything can happen. Appreciate everyone's thoughts.
 
Agree. Max IMO though not 100% and has looked very human last few times out. Brewers were so hot for so long but crawled across the finish line.
 
Brewers won the season series, 4-2
Brewers swept the Nats at Miller Park in May, winning games started by both of Washington's two aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg

Nats have the worst bullpen in baseball

Juan Soto, who hit 34 homers and drove in 109 runs with a .947 OPS this year
he doesn't even turn 21 until Oct. 25
 
Max's teams are only 3-10 in his post season starts alltime, even though his numbers are good 3.73/1.11 with 3.2:1 K:BB rate

Woodruff 1-0 in postseason after starting vs COL last year and going 3.1inn. He did pitch 3 other times in relief last year amassing 12.1 inn with 1.46/0.81 plus 6.67:1 K:BB rate
 
Brewers won the season series, but Yelich now out and Cain injured. I agree Max has been vulnerable, but I think at the first sign of trouble they go to Strasburg and potentially Corbin. I'm not sure you get into the bullpen if they throw three starters at you.
 
Lorenzo Cain not being in the lineup helps the offense, maybe they'll miss his range but that's not even close to what he used to be...

Scherzer has not been great since his return from the IL and Woodruff is awesome if he's on. Weird spot for Davey Martinez, but using more than one of his aces will basically hand LAD a huge advantage and I hope that he doesn't actually do that
 
if you pitch game 2 on friday, you can still pitch game 5 on normal rest. i would think he uses two of the big 3 in the wild card game and then the other one can start thursday. then probably whoever relieves tomorrow can pitch friday. max ready for game 3 and then can pitch out of the pen in game 5. he did pitch out of the pen in a do or die game in 2017 and it did not go well. 1 IP, 3 hits, a walk, a HBP, 4 runs, 2 of them earned.
 
He's likely to work the first couple of innings before giving way to the bullpen -- perhaps to fellow starter Jordan Lyles
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Crazy that back in July we were lining up to fade Jordan Lyles. Dude had been 0-8 in his last 8 starts with the Bucs and a career 0-18 in games started in July before the trade. Fast forward to today with the Brew kinda hinging their season on him. How unlikely would that have seemed saying that back in July! After acquiring him, the Brewers have gone 10-1 in games he started, and 10-0 in the games their offense wasn't shut out.
 
Lyles had some good fortune in the opponents he drew IIRC. Was on the fantasy radar and just couldn't be dropped cuz he kept facing MIA and SF
 
Davey seems to be risking this game having Scherzer start, but if they get through it i like their chances better vs LAD than if they wasted Corbin or Strasburg
 
Nats have been cautious with Max pitch count since the injury and gradually worked him back up to the 100 pitch range. He did give up 2HR in each of last two starts, but K's and control very good. I love his tenacity on the mound and think they are making the right call having him start this Wildcard game. Agree too, that I would only expect one of Stras/Corbin to appear today in relief role but hope we do not have to use them.

1569941707894.png
 
Scherzer has been himself the last 2 starts and just gotten some bad home run luck on 2 swings. Him at home rested with his full arsenal back, and Yelich being the only Brewer with meaningful success against him, leads me to believe Under 3.5 -140 offers value tonight.
 
In 9 career games 8 starts against Milwaukee, Scherzer is 2-2 with a 2.29 ERA. He allowed two runs one earned in six innings during his lone appearance against the Brewers this season on May 6
Strasburg and Corbin will be available to pitch out of the bullpen if necessary

Brandon Woodruff 11-3, 3.62 who strung together four scoreless innings in two appearances in September after missing almost two months because of a left oblique injury
He is 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in 4 career games two starts against the Nationals. In four playoff appearances one start he is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA
 
While I understand the line I can’t do anything but take the brew crew here at this price. Dropping 3 in coors doesn’t bother me at all as they will have their full arsenal of arms ready to Tampa bay this wild card game up tonight.
 
PaintCrew said:
While I understand the line I can’t do anything but take the brew crew here at this price. Dropping 3 in coors doesn’t bother me at all as they will have their full arsenal of arms ready to Tampa bay this wild card game up tonight.
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Tampa bay?
 
I played a nats ws future at asb so obviously hoping they win but no chance I can lay this price on them. I think woodruff can go toe to toe w mad max who as been mentioned not been all that strong the second half of season. No chance I want to be holding a nats -175ish ticket if it tight in the late innings.

FF under 4 where i wanna be but it kinda juicy.
 
PaintCrew said:
While I understand the line I can’t do anything but take the brew crew here at this price. Dropping 3 in coors doesn’t bother me at all as they will have their full arsenal of arms ready to Tampa bay this wild card game up tonight.
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How come woodruff only been going a few innings lately? Early in the year he was going much deeper into games, they just managing his innings? I like his stuff, if he can go 5-6 I think this line pretty crazy.
 
2daBank said:
How come woodruff only been going a few innings lately? Early in the year he was going much deeper into games, they just managing his innings? I like his stuff, if he can go 5-6 I think this line pretty crazy.
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Back from oblique injury. Only made two starts since like late July
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Back from oblique injury. Only made two starts since like late July
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And they both only been 2 innings, both were a excellent 2 innings but is he still gonna be limited to 40ish pitches? If he was stretched out I’d love milw at this price but no clue how long he can go?
 
2daBank said:
And they both only been 2 innings, both were a excellent 2 innings but is he still gonna be limited to 40ish pitches? If he was stretched out I’d love milw at this price but no clue how long he can go?
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Well Milly still got Gio, Lyles, host of solid lefty relievers
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Well Milly still got Gio, Lyles, host of solid lefty relievers
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I’d feel lot better if they didn’t need anyone until the 6th.

I’d like nats to win cause I have a +4200 ws future on them I took at asb but just looking at this game I think the price is pretty redic.

Max has not been his dominate self in some time, I know the other cats available out of pen but ya never really know how those guys will do in that role? Some pitchers accustomed to starting don’t thrive when asked to come out of pen and we know what a dumpster fire the rest of nats pen can be.

Seems insane to me nats are such big favs.
 
Everitt hates home teams but Max 2.35 ERA 5-0 record
No call here was thinking Milwaukee
 
raems said:
Scherzer has been himself the last 2 starts and just gotten some bad home run luck on 2 swings. Him at home rested with his full arsenal back, and Yelich being the only Brewer with meaningful success against him, leads me to believe Under 3.5 -140 offers value tonight.
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i wouldn't give him a pass on bad luck cuz HR is how you beat the best pitchers and he's been vulnerable to it this year since even before the injury. It's why he had such a bad record when you consider units regardless of how banged up his team's lineup was early in the year
 
Do we think woodruff even goes 3 innings? I'm liking the under 3.5K's prop bet, starting lineup has a 17.3%K rate against righties. We know he doesn't get it if he gets roughed up, and even if he gets through 3 innings, he has to average more than 1K per
 
GWarner27 said:
i wouldn't give him a pass on bad luck cuz HR is how you beat the best pitchers and he's been vulnerable to it this year since even before the injury. It's why he had such a bad record when you consider units regardless of how banged up his team's lineup was early in the year
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I watched his start in stl and he looked sharp but the defense did him no favors and he was clearly running out of gas in that 7th inning that got extended by more poor fielding. I was surprised they left him in to give up the 2 bombs but guess that what ya do when you don’t trust your pen.

As crappy as cards offense can be they do tend to be at their best against the elite pitchers, lol.
 
GWarner27 said:
i wouldn't give him a pass on bad luck cuz HR is how you beat the best pitchers and he's been vulnerable to it this year since even before the injury. It's why he had such a bad record when you consider units regardless of how banged up his team's lineup was early in the year
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Scherz‘s hr rate allowed is below his career average, fewer than 1 allowed per nine innings. He‘s a fly ball pitcher throwing juiced balls, a good bit of variation is expected and he’s been on the wrong side of it lately compared to league avg rate (hence importance of xfip). Look at his whip and k:bb rates tho. Scherz has been superb
 
ScopeY said:
Do we think woodruff even goes 3 innings? I'm liking the under 3.5K's prop bet, starting lineup has a 17.3%K rate against righties. We know he doesn't get it if he gets roughed up, and even if he gets through 3 innings, he has to average more than 1K per
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gotta think Scherzer will K, though he tries really hard for hits (part of why he signed with WSH so he could bat) and the bunt will surely be called for in the playoffs if at all useful.

Woodruff has awesome stuff and I would think they extend him as far as he can go since this is a do-or-die
 
sidenote, believe you got me in the semis (crushed*) of the fantasy league...... We had woodruff, was very missed
 
Hence my problem w metrics, there no way I would say he been superb this past month. Doesn’t mean he can’t be or isn’t pitching well enough to do so but if he goes 6 and gives up 3-4 runs again tonight like he been doing nobody will say he was excellent.
 
2daBank said:
I watched his start in stl and he looked sharp but the defense did him no favors and he was clearly running out of gas in that 7th inning that got extended by more poor fielding. I was surprised they left him in to give up the 2 bombs but guess that what ya do when you don’t trust your pen.

As crappy as cards offense can be they do tend to be at their best against the elite pitchers, lol.
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watched that one and agree he got screwed @StL and think they really should have team errors, but wouldn't rely on the bolded part

VirginiaCavs said:
Scherz‘s hr rate allowed is below his career average, fewer than 1 allowed per nine innings. He‘s a fly ball pitcher throwing juiced balls, a good bit of variation is expected and he’s been on the wrong side of it lately compared to league avg rate (hence importance of xfip). Look at his whip and k:bb rates tho. Scherz has been superb
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surprised to read that and i guess that's impressive, but i'm not sure how to explain his awful units record that should be worse if not for some blown saves. Maybe ill-timed HR, but he was my favorite fade this year pretty much and I think most of my unit total is from anti-Scherzer wagers
 
Martinez has mentioned that he will only being a starter into relief for a clean inning, not with anybody on base. Seems to explicitly indicate he’s riding with Max and has no intention of pulling him before the 8th inning if he’s rolling and isn’t racking up too high a pitch count.
 
GWarner27 said:
watched that one and agree he got screwed @StL and think they really should have team errors, but wouldn't rely on the bolded part
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Dunno exactly what you mean by not relying on that?

It not anything to really use far as capping just a kinda unusual quirk w lot of cards teams over the years. Throw some garbage minor league pitcher they have never seen and guy blanks them for 6-7 innings. Throw one nats studs, Kershaw (even in his prime), etc, at them and they grind out good ab’s and tend to either plate more runs than those guys typically give up or get them out of the game.

Think it maybe kinda explains why they often have playoff success when they get in, obviously in playoffs you not facing many scrubs they have no film on.
 
raems said:
Martinez has mentioned that he will only being a starter into relief for a clean inning, not with anybody on base. Seems to explicitly indicate he’s riding with Max and has no intention of pulling him before the 8th inning if he’s rolling and isn’t racking up too high a pitch count.
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odd roster for tonight's game then
 
2daBank said:
Dunno exactly what you mean by not relying on that?

It not anything to really use far as capping just a kinda unusual quirk w lot of cards teams over the years. Throw some garbage minor league pitcher they have never seen and guy blanks them for 6-7 innings. Throw one nats studs, Kershaw (even in his prime), etc, at them and they grind out good ab’s and tend to either plate more runs than those guys typically give up or get them out of the game.

Think it maybe kinda explains why they often have playoff success when they get in, obviously in playoffs you not facing many scrubs they have no film on.
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i often like and find myself backing StL as a dog, but you should get some numbers to back that assumption up rather than letting it push you the wrong direction if it's not evidenced
 
Yep. Have to be able to pitch to contact. Max will always be a post season bum. On Brewers RL +1.5 but under as well. Thanks Max.
 
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