NL Central Betting Recap and Futures Outlook
Read on for a recap of the first half of the season for the NL Central and what NL Central futures are worth betting on.
MLB Pick: Milwaukee
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NL Central Standings <br>1) Cubs (55-38)<br>2) Brewers (55-43)<br>3) Cardinals (48-46)<br>4) Pirates (48-49)<br>5) Reds (43-53)</p>— Sports Daily (@SportsDGI) <a href=" ">July 16, 2018</a></blockquote>
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NL Central Odds:
Chicago -300
Milwaukee +300
St. Louis +1400
Pittsburgh +5000
The first half of the season hasn’t come close to inspiring the level of confidence in Chicago that would justify the heavy chalk that oddsmakers are asking its backers to lay. The Cubs have a small lead in the division and with the Brewers expecting to wake up from their recent slump and St. Louis revived by a long overdue managerial change, the NL Central could see one of the tightest division races.
Oddsmakers are biased towards the Cubs, who won the division last year. But they have regressed in a crucial area, starting pitching, with the loss of Jake Arrieta. Yu Darvish is not living up to what Arrieta was, going 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. Cubs opponents will hope for him to return from the DL as soon as possible. Tyler Chatwood is another new signing who distinguishes himself with his impressive spin rate, but has yet to find sufficient command and mechanical comfort, without which even the best stuff is useless. His ERA is 5.04. The bright spot of Chicago’s rotation has been Jon Lester with a 2.58 ERA. But a deeper look shows that he is actually pitching worse than last year and is bound to regress statistically and lose his spot as the second-most profitable pitcher (+12.7 units). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 4.34. He has been surviving by stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate, has been fortunate with a very low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) given his high rate of hard contact allowed, and has gotten away with walking too many batters. The Cubs’ next biggest hope, Jose Quintana, has a 4.64 FIP and has yet to show his 2016 form. Kyle Hendricks is deservedly the second-least profitable pitcher (-12.5 units). Chicago’s best signings have been in the bullpen, where Steve Cishek and Brandon Morrow have been reliable, and which ranks just behind the Brewers’ pen in terms of FIP.
The Cubs’ lineup shows strong quality on the surface, helping the „over“ hit in 14 of its last 20 games. Six different guys are batting over .278. Javier Baez leads the team with .566 slugging. But it has benefited from the highest BABIP, despite having the fifth-highest soft contact percentage, and will likely regress statistically
Milwaukee's starting rotation has suffered an unfortunate amount of injuries. Zach Davies, who had anyhow been struggling, will be out for an undetermined amount of time. Jimmy Nelson, who is typically thought of as Milwaukee’s top starter, may not return this season. Most recently, the reliable and strongly improved Junior Guerra hit the DL for an unspecified time frame, but will hopefully return soon. Wade Miley hasn’t managed a sub-four FIP since 2013. Rookie Freddy Peralta has no proven track record— a low ERA, which can easily balloon when lineups begin to figure him out, and a high walk rate. Jhoulys Chacin has been the rotation’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +7.30 units. He puts up pretty good numbers, but has benefited from higher-than-average run support per game and I don’t expect that profitability to continue. I see more promise in Brent Suter, whose FIP is 4.31, but can progress to where he was last year if he can keep the ball in the ballpark. Finally, Chase Anderson’s FIP is over 5.00, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last five outings. The best of Milwaukee’s pitching is in its bullpen that ranks seventh in FIP, led by the untouchable Josh Hader (1.71 FIP) and Jeremy Jeffress, (2.68 FIP) who have allowed three combined runs in their last 21 innings. Because its starters are troublesome, though, it ranks eighth in innings pitched.
The Brewers’ lineup shows a small statistical downgrade from Chicago. But its new signings Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are paying off. Both are batting over .290. Jesus Aguilar leads the team with .621 slugging. Travis Shaw has been hitting better the past two weeks and should progress to his last year numbers.
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St. Louis’ starting rotation shows the most promise. It features All-Star Miles Mikolas, who, with a 2.79 ERA and 3.25 FIP, has been an awesome surprise addition. He is the team’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +5.35 units. St. Louis is 8-2 in his road starts (+6.1 units) and 8-0 in day games (+8.1 units). Bettors should expect that profitability to continue. Carlos Martinez’ ERA is „only“ 3.08 because he struggled massively to find his form after returning from the DL. But Martinez has yielded an FIP under 2.50 in three of his last four starts. He simply has to work on his pre-game routine in order to lower his 4.50 first-inning ERA and he’ll be that much more effective. Until he figures that out, look to bet on the opposing underdog to score first when he starts. The Cards’ rotation features more youth and inexperience. Jack Flaherty has been a positive surprise, once the finally fired Manager Mike Matheny stopped trusting washed-up veteran and fan favorite Adam Wainwright over him. Flaherty has a 3.76 FIP, showing strong stuff and command, and he promises to keep growing in the second half. Luke Weaver is statistically only slightly worse, but is very streaky. He has allowed three runs in his past 14 innings. Tragically, Michael Wacha is injured and his return date remains unspecified. The real problem with St. Louis’ pitching consists in its bullpen, which has pitched much fewer innings than Chicago’s and Milwaukee’s, but is yielding a higher FIP. Like its rotation, the bullpen is led by a young guy, Jordan Hicks, who has amazing velocity, but seems to have only an on or off switch, with no in between.
Only one Cardinals hitter is touching .300, Jose Martinez. Instead, it’s heavily dependent on power, with five guys mustering double-digit home runs. This dependence makes it inconsistent and unreliable. The Cards’ lineup is especially prone to letdowns. In its last four games after scoring double-digit runs, the Cards have produced three combined runs.
The worst part of St. Louis is its inclination to shoot itself in the foot with basic fundamentals. The Cards have the eighth most outs on bases, despite running a low number of total bases, and the most errors.
I am a big believer in value, which means finding a gap between implied and actual probability. The Cubs are being asked to win the division three out of four times when it doesn’t have a pitching advantage over Milwaukee—whose ERA is inflated by being in a very hitter-friendly ballpark—and possibly not a hitting one either. I capped Milwaukee as being more like +150, so I see tremendous value in +300, in what will be a tight race, unless the injury bug proves non-discriminatory and hits the Cubs as it has Milwaukee. Otherwise, St. Louis’ pitching has awesome talent, but a lot of youth, which, like its lineup, is streaky and inconsistent. Pittsburgh has played better lately, but its best starter has a 3.91 ERA.
Read on for a recap of the first half of the season for the NL Central and what NL Central futures are worth betting on.
MLB Pick: Milwaukee
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NL Central Standings <br>1) Cubs (55-38)<br>2) Brewers (55-43)<br>3) Cardinals (48-46)<br>4) Pirates (48-49)<br>5) Reds (43-53)</p>— Sports Daily (@SportsDGI) <a href=" ">July 16, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
NL Central Odds:
Chicago -300
Milwaukee +300
St. Louis +1400
Pittsburgh +5000
The first half of the season hasn’t come close to inspiring the level of confidence in Chicago that would justify the heavy chalk that oddsmakers are asking its backers to lay. The Cubs have a small lead in the division and with the Brewers expecting to wake up from their recent slump and St. Louis revived by a long overdue managerial change, the NL Central could see one of the tightest division races.
Oddsmakers are biased towards the Cubs, who won the division last year. But they have regressed in a crucial area, starting pitching, with the loss of Jake Arrieta. Yu Darvish is not living up to what Arrieta was, going 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. Cubs opponents will hope for him to return from the DL as soon as possible. Tyler Chatwood is another new signing who distinguishes himself with his impressive spin rate, but has yet to find sufficient command and mechanical comfort, without which even the best stuff is useless. His ERA is 5.04. The bright spot of Chicago’s rotation has been Jon Lester with a 2.58 ERA. But a deeper look shows that he is actually pitching worse than last year and is bound to regress statistically and lose his spot as the second-most profitable pitcher (+12.7 units). His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 4.34. He has been surviving by stranding runners at an unsustainably high rate, has been fortunate with a very low opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) given his high rate of hard contact allowed, and has gotten away with walking too many batters. The Cubs’ next biggest hope, Jose Quintana, has a 4.64 FIP and has yet to show his 2016 form. Kyle Hendricks is deservedly the second-least profitable pitcher (-12.5 units). Chicago’s best signings have been in the bullpen, where Steve Cishek and Brandon Morrow have been reliable, and which ranks just behind the Brewers’ pen in terms of FIP.
The Cubs’ lineup shows strong quality on the surface, helping the „over“ hit in 14 of its last 20 games. Six different guys are batting over .278. Javier Baez leads the team with .566 slugging. But it has benefited from the highest BABIP, despite having the fifth-highest soft contact percentage, and will likely regress statistically
Milwaukee's starting rotation has suffered an unfortunate amount of injuries. Zach Davies, who had anyhow been struggling, will be out for an undetermined amount of time. Jimmy Nelson, who is typically thought of as Milwaukee’s top starter, may not return this season. Most recently, the reliable and strongly improved Junior Guerra hit the DL for an unspecified time frame, but will hopefully return soon. Wade Miley hasn’t managed a sub-four FIP since 2013. Rookie Freddy Peralta has no proven track record— a low ERA, which can easily balloon when lineups begin to figure him out, and a high walk rate. Jhoulys Chacin has been the rotation’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +7.30 units. He puts up pretty good numbers, but has benefited from higher-than-average run support per game and I don’t expect that profitability to continue. I see more promise in Brent Suter, whose FIP is 4.31, but can progress to where he was last year if he can keep the ball in the ballpark. Finally, Chase Anderson’s FIP is over 5.00, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in his last five outings. The best of Milwaukee’s pitching is in its bullpen that ranks seventh in FIP, led by the untouchable Josh Hader (1.71 FIP) and Jeremy Jeffress, (2.68 FIP) who have allowed three combined runs in their last 21 innings. Because its starters are troublesome, though, it ranks eighth in innings pitched.
The Brewers’ lineup shows a small statistical downgrade from Chicago. But its new signings Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are paying off. Both are batting over .290. Jesus Aguilar leads the team with .621 slugging. Travis Shaw has been hitting better the past two weeks and should progress to his last year numbers.
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St. Louis’ starting rotation shows the most promise. It features All-Star Miles Mikolas, who, with a 2.79 ERA and 3.25 FIP, has been an awesome surprise addition. He is the team’s most profitable pitcher, yielding +5.35 units. St. Louis is 8-2 in his road starts (+6.1 units) and 8-0 in day games (+8.1 units). Bettors should expect that profitability to continue. Carlos Martinez’ ERA is „only“ 3.08 because he struggled massively to find his form after returning from the DL. But Martinez has yielded an FIP under 2.50 in three of his last four starts. He simply has to work on his pre-game routine in order to lower his 4.50 first-inning ERA and he’ll be that much more effective. Until he figures that out, look to bet on the opposing underdog to score first when he starts. The Cards’ rotation features more youth and inexperience. Jack Flaherty has been a positive surprise, once the finally fired Manager Mike Matheny stopped trusting washed-up veteran and fan favorite Adam Wainwright over him. Flaherty has a 3.76 FIP, showing strong stuff and command, and he promises to keep growing in the second half. Luke Weaver is statistically only slightly worse, but is very streaky. He has allowed three runs in his past 14 innings. Tragically, Michael Wacha is injured and his return date remains unspecified. The real problem with St. Louis’ pitching consists in its bullpen, which has pitched much fewer innings than Chicago’s and Milwaukee’s, but is yielding a higher FIP. Like its rotation, the bullpen is led by a young guy, Jordan Hicks, who has amazing velocity, but seems to have only an on or off switch, with no in between.
Only one Cardinals hitter is touching .300, Jose Martinez. Instead, it’s heavily dependent on power, with five guys mustering double-digit home runs. This dependence makes it inconsistent and unreliable. The Cards’ lineup is especially prone to letdowns. In its last four games after scoring double-digit runs, the Cards have produced three combined runs.
The worst part of St. Louis is its inclination to shoot itself in the foot with basic fundamentals. The Cards have the eighth most outs on bases, despite running a low number of total bases, and the most errors.
I am a big believer in value, which means finding a gap between implied and actual probability. The Cubs are being asked to win the division three out of four times when it doesn’t have a pitching advantage over Milwaukee—whose ERA is inflated by being in a very hitter-friendly ballpark—and possibly not a hitting one either. I capped Milwaukee as being more like +150, so I see tremendous value in +300, in what will be a tight race, unless the injury bug proves non-discriminatory and hits the Cubs as it has Milwaukee. Otherwise, St. Louis’ pitching has awesome talent, but a lot of youth, which, like its lineup, is streaky and inconsistent. Pittsburgh has played better lately, but its best starter has a 3.91 ERA.
i‘m the same way, I advocate for a super like button to create extra distinction
