Retief to rule at riviera
Goosen - should thrive at Riviera.
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By Dave Tindall
Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles - home of this week's Nissan Open - has always been a happy hunting ground for the game's international stars.
Seven of the last nine runnings of this event have been won by overseas players and I think there's an excellent chance that will increase to eight from 10 this year.
Apart from having history on their side, many of the international players will also have welcomed the news that Riviera is running firm and fast this year.
Course superintendent Matt Morton said: "Riviera is going to show its true self. It's going to come down to shot-making and short game."
Ernie Els will be a warm order and is one of those past international winners having won here in 1999. He should also have won the 1995 USPGA held at Riviera but fell away in the final round leaving it to two other overseas players - Australian Steve Elkington and Scot Colin Montgomerie - to battle it out in a play-off.
But 12/1 is short enough for a man who has lost the winning habit for the time being and has only won once on mainland America since 2002.
Preference is for fellow South African
Retief Goosen at 20s.
Goosen, playing here for the first time, can't bring course form to the table but Riviera should be right up his street.
And, unlike Els, he can point to a recent win after a sensational eagle at the 72nd hole gave him victory in the Qatar Masters last month.
Despite giving the impression that he hasn't been at his very best, Goosen's recent results over a globetrotting last few months are extremely impressive.
If we look at his last 11 starts, they've produced two wins and six other top six finishes, including a fourth place at the Tour Championship on his last outing on the US Tour.
The fact that Riviera will be fast and firm should alert all Goosen backers as he thrives in such conditions so that 20/1 makes definite appeal.
The man who Goosen edged out in Qatar,
Nick O'Hern, is also worth a small poke at 100/1.
Two starts before that second place, he won the Australian PGA Championship and he's another who will really enjoy the prevailing conditions this week.
Fellow Aussies Elkington (1995 USPGA),
Robert Allenby (2001) and Adam Scott (2005) have all hoisted the Aussie flag by winning here and Riviera, as it's likely to play this week, should be a really good fit for O'Hern's game.
True, he does find winning hard but the Aussie PGA success proves it's not beyond him. This is a big step up but his countrymen had a fantastic year on the US Tour in 2006 and he could keep the party going by claiming victory here.
However, we'll weight stakes a little in favour of a top five. Note, too, that extrabet's place terms include ties so if he does finish tied fifth with half-a-dozen others you'll still get the full 16/1 place payout. That could be very handy.
Allenby, the 2001 winner, is also worth a punt.
Relatively unnoticed, he's made the top ten in all three of his US starts this year - eighth at both the Sony Open and Bob Hope and ninth at the Buick Invitational.
And as well as his win here in 2001, he's since finished 15th in 2004 and seventh in 2005.
Second in scoring average in 2007, Allenby is clearly on his game and is worth an each-way bet at 50s.
The firm fairways and fast greens should also boost
Justin Rose's bid to land that first US Tour win.
Rose showed his liking for such conditions when winning the MasterCard Masters in Australia at the end of November and was the joint leader after 72 holes of the Bob Hope Classic on his first US appearance in 2007. Unfortunately that was a 90-hole event and Rose lost the lead late on to finish third.
On the face of it, his course form - 39th, 58th and 59th - doesn't suggest he's worth a wager.
But dig a little deeper and there are some encouraging signs. Rose shot middle rounds of 65-67 in 2004, tied first for greens in regulation in 2005 and was the joint first round leader last year when opening with a 64.
Rose said on his own website in 2005: "I'm excited to be playing Riviera this week for the Nissan Open. It's one of my favourite courses of the year." So, all in all, there looks to be plenty of potential for a big show from the Englishman.
Let's not forget, he's had four top 10 finishes in his last 10 US Tour starts so the 80/1 at extrabet looks a fair price.
Phil Mickelson, after his five-shot romp at Pebble Beach, leads the home challenge but despite his scintillating return to form and improved driving I'm not convinced this course is ideal for him.
He's the same price here as he is for Augusta but while you can almost guarantee he'll play a big part in the Masters it's guesswork that he'll show up strongly here. His last visit in 2001 produced a missed cut and he looks worth taking on.
John Rollins, twice a runner-up in his last three starts and fifth last year, may be the best American wager at 66/1 while it's foolish to rule out Jim Furyk on any course these days. His best effort was his 12th place last year.
:cheers:
