NHL playoffs - the goal = +15 units

I really liked the pace of the Islanders, Miller made some fantastic saves (over...g rrr) but I liked the jump they came out with, just didnt get a break or 2 to get the tie / lead. Probably be on them in game 4.
 
I had to bite on the Flames. Just seems like two completely different mindsets, with the Wings being in cruise control and the Flames being desperate. I see Calgary pulling this one out. How do you not back a team whose season hinges on this game, with home ice (where they've dominate), for + money? I'll take my chances here as I think they win this game more often than they lose it.

Also went with the Pens/Sens under 6.5. 3 games in 4 days, and there is yet to be a low-scoring affair in this series. You have to think these offenses come out somewhat flat one of these days (or the goaltenders play great) and they duke it out in a 3-1 or 3-2 type game. I know they aren't outstanding defensively, but it's hard to see two teams combining for 6+ goals for the 4th consecutive time in this series.

How bout the Thrashers? I bit on that one at +135. Another situation where a team is far more desperate than their opponent. How does NYR not already think they have this series wrapped up? Oh yeah, and Atlanta has won like 7 of the last 8 in MSG. The Rangers are simply a mediocre home team, and I think they drop this one after coming out flat.
 
LETS GO PENS!!!! LETS GO PENS!!!! LETS GO PENS!!!!

well Joe it seems tonights Pens game (i'm stealing this from the local radio morning show WDVE) is a "gotta win" for them tonight. if they happen to drop tonights game and go to 3-1 in the series, well then their next game will be a "must win" for them.... let's just hope it doesn't get to that and the pens get a nice win at home tonight....
 
Yeah, Mogo, tonight's the night. This is one of those gut-check games for a team. You either have it or you don't. This team grows up tonight in a big way or they go home for the summer and search for answers.

I think this team, thanks in part to the presence of Gary Roberts, will show up tonight.

Linde I'm staying off the Thrashers because they've been such a mess. I actually think this is a great spot for them, with their regular goalie back in there (even though I like the Moose quite a bit). But they've been such a nightmare I can't single them out for a play.

Funny you bring up the Pens total because part of me thought the last game might stay low that's why I didn't play the over. Sure enough, the under hit, but barely and I actually felt lucky I played neither side of that total. Tonight wouldn't shock me as a low-scorer. In fact, part of me thinks Fleury has a big game tonight, one goal allowed, maybe two, something like that.

And Calgary is still on my list, I just haven't bitten yet.
 
Good news, you're not alone, I'm going to throw away all of the profits I've made on the playoffs tonight after the Flames go down in.....well, you know the rest.
 
Why am I getting that feeling? I mean, a sensible person would buy back the bet if they felt as badly as we do, wouldn't they??
 
F**k it, this is my last bet betting this way. And here's what I mean by that.

I'm sick of betting on the team that is obviously not the better team. I'm done with it. I may go back to the system for the second round, but the reality is, outside of that I've bet at least four times on teams that I knew were not the better team, hoping they could steal the game. No more.

I'm a Pens fan so I admit I've hung on to this team too long, but they're done. And maybe this assessment comes to late, but there is no way I bet them again even if they win three straight.

I will not bet Calgary again after this bet tonight. I will not bet Minnesota again if they can get through tonight. I will not bet the Islanders again. And on and on.

From here on in I bet better teams or I don't bet.
 
Overall: 6-12 (-3 units)

Yuck. I'd like to say I'm learning some things, though. Still, I'd like to be well, um, up in the first round.
 
I don't know if you bet NHL on a regular basis Joe, but I've found it almost impossible to consistently make money betting on lesser teams in this sport. I've given it a shot for a few stints here and there, and haven't even come close to having the success I do betting favorites. I think the playoffs are a different animal, but it still applies somewhat. For some reason, you just can't bet dogs more often than faves and win in this sport, unless you are some stud capper. I think that's part of the reason I've been so successful in my first two years betting hockey - I haven't tried to outthink myself or outsmart the books by betting mostly dogs.

Oh, and I can't decide if I should be happy because my under won by 3.5 goals, or depressed because my ML bet lost by 7 goals.
 
I think Pittsburgh played as good as they can play last night, Ottawa is just a force to be reckoned with this year.
 
Good post, Linde, I'll respond to it tonight, but I wanted to add these:

Buff/NYI over 5.5 - .5 unit

Nash/SJ over 5.5 - .5 unit
 
Update: 1-1 today (even)

Overall: 7-13 (-3 units)

I think you're right, Linde. If there's one thing that I like about the NHL playoffs it's that very, very rarely does a bad team make it very far. You see it right now, I mean, I'm a Pens fan but even I will admit, the Sens are the better team here.

Is there one series where the worse team is actually winning? No. Instead there isn't one series where the worse team has won more than one game thus far.

This is a marathon and I think that in my absence from hockey I've given that less weight than I should. In the NFL, in college football, even in the NCAA tourney, it can be about matchups and one team playing one great game. But the problem here is if you chase that plus-money looking for the one or two dog wins it can bleed you. Better to try to get decent prices on the team you believe is just the better one.
 
Well, Believe, part of me thinks the Pens could step up and bite on Thursday. Now some of that is me being a fan, some of it is me knowing how much the NHL and NBC want another chance to put Sid the Kid on national TV this weekend and being a bit of a conspiracy theorist.

But the theory of 'bet the better team' says bet the Sens. The Penguins' blue line issues, which I really thought they could work around here, have been completely exposed. Their power play drew the doughnut in Game Four and when that happens, especially to a team this young which is reluctant to throw it to the net and grind for goals, you're going to lose.

The Sens are winning this game five on five so if they can stay out of the penalty box whether they win tomorrow or in Game Six it's just a matter of time.

I don't think I'll play it either way since I've lost pretty big on both Pens' home games. But if I get good plus-money on the over I might take a shot there on a total sucker bet.
 
i hope your right, Joe. had such high hopes for this series...

but i also let my heart take another small flyer on the Pens tomorrow.
 
I think Ottawa is a good choice. Theyre clearly superior from a to z. I dont think they will have a letdown spot, theyll want to close this series out as fast as possible just to shut up the media critics around them. I know that seems like a stupid factor but for ottawa it isnt.
 
First one for tonight:

ML parlay - Detroit/Anaheim - .5 unit to win close to 1 unit. (I'm rounding for addition purposes later if need be.)

Considering:

Pens over 6.5
Pens +190 (yes, I'm just that stupid).
Anaheim -1.5

But none of those three are bet yet.

I also have Vancouver to win the series so I'm just letting that ride.
 
Yep, I'm an idiot.

Pens +190 - .5 unit

Pens over 6.5 - 1 unit

Come on, Hockey Gods, give us one more game in the Igloo.
 
Never too soon to start a turnaround.

SJ ML - 1.5 units

SJ/Nashville - over 5.5 - .5 unit

Buffalo -1.5 - .5 unit
 
Thanks, guys.

I got Buffalo at -115 at Olympic. Quite frankly, I don't love the number. I got to it late.

I'm much happier with the plus money I'm getting on SJ and the SJ/Nashville over at Matchbook.
 
I'll likely be with you on SJ, Joe. I left the plus money in Dallas alone yesterday (with my predicition of 4 straight road winners ringing in my own ears afterwards), don't think I'm gonna make that mistake today.

BOL:cheers:
 
Today: 1-3 (even)
Actually like down loose change. After all that. Motherf**ker.

Overall: 8-19 (-5 units)

Grrr.
 
Not so crazy about doing this since I have them for the series as well, but I do like them in this game. As JG said in his post, they don't exactly do anything easy, but I just think the Canucks are the better team.

Vancouver +130 - .5 unit

Let's get 'Nuckled.
 
Yeah I'm not happy about it because I have a future on Dallas to win the Cup, but Vancouver is gonna win this game. If I could get anyone to match any decent price on them on Matchbook, I'd bet it. But I'm not taking less than +130 here.
 
I feel a little like I'm going to throw up.

Today: 0-1 (-.5 unit)

Overall: 8-20 (-6 units)

I only bet half a unit today, but I'm rounding up a bit. We're getting close to the point I'm just going to stop for my own good, though. It's that bad.
 
Thanks, B., but I don't think I'll play either of the games tomorrow, I don't like 'em.

I may come back with Vancouver in Game Seven on Monday, but other than that I think I'm done in Round One.
 
I'm going to put this thread to bed after the first round and start a new one.

Perhaps it can move some of the luck around.

Tonight, I know a lot of trends favor Dallas. Generally if you win Game Six, you win Game Seven. Not always, but a lot of the time.

But I'm going to dance with the girl who brought me.

Vancouver -122 - 1 unit

Good luck tonight everybody.
 
Can't bring myself to bet this one at this point.

Normally this would def. be Marty Turco choke time (if he'd ever got this far before) but he didnt lose it when - even with good efforts - his team's offense screwed him (G's 3 & 4) and came back even stronger game's 5 & 6. If he really has turned the corner (and not just looked good in games VAN knew they could afford to lose) then I wouldnt back against him.

BOL Joe
 
Thanks, Bet.

And a late thanks to the Gambling Gods. Finally, one to the good.

I feel for everybody on the under who took that Moose, what a kick in the n*ts, but it's good to see Vancouver moving on. It sets up some really good second round stuff.
 
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