Satyr
Paster of Muppets
A small note: despite my 8-0-2 record, this is NHL. Anything is possible in NHL. Columbus can beat Stanley Cup winners 5-0 on a given day, and you can never be sure of anything, same as you can't be sure in any other sport.
However, I am a capper, and I search for discrepancies between bookie estimations and mine. When the discrepancy is big enough, I tend to go big. Never bigger than 10 units (3% of bank) though, which is my maximum play.
Here we go:
Let's remind ourselves of team situations a bit shall we: the Leafs opened the season in Ottawa, lost 3-2, then beat Montreal 4-3, lost to Carolina (1-7!) (both at home), only to bounce back and score a ton on the Islanders, as they beat them 8-1. Now it's not that I don't think Toronto is that bad, I think they'll improve as season progresses, but at the moment I don't rate them better than the Capitals for example.
And the Capitals were the team that were absolutely clueless in Buffalo two days ago. Imagine this. Washington opens the scoring in the first, but the Sabres dominate the ice, create a ton of chances...but nothing. Can't score. "One of those games". Brent Johnson was all over the place. I'll quote Sabres radio pundits: "Brent Johnson is taking up more shots than Ben Johnson used to!"
It looked like a huge struggle but then...
Buffalo recorded a total of 25 shots in the 2nd period ALONE. Up until 4:45 was left on the clock of the 2nd period, the Capitals were up 1:0.
Sabres scored 4 before the clock ran out. That's right, 4 goals in 4:45. Washington scored two more in the third but Buffalo kept pounding and scored three more, only to see the game end 7-3. That's a total of 53 shots in ONE single game.
And coming off a 6-0 thrashing of the Atlanta Thrashers two days prior to that game against Ovechkin and co.
Trust me, I'm not a knee jerk capper, meaning I don't jump to conclusions based on two games only. But having watched and listened (depends on which game we're talking about) these Sabres, they're in their offensive explosion mode.
And against Toronto who have been quite inconsistent. You can't count on them to score either, first they scored 2 in Ottawa and went on a 4 game home stand:
Oct 13, 2007 PIT 6 @ TOR 4
Oct 11, 2007 NYI 1 @ TOR 8
Oct 9, 2007 CAR 7 @ TOR 1
Oct 6, 2007 MTL 3 @ TOR 4
4,1,8,4. And that's AT HOME, against rather inferior opposition to what they'll be facing tonight in Buffalo. The crowd in Buffalo is so fired up, these guys live hockey. And Buffalo have guys scoring from all positions, they have a defenseman (Campbell) who already has 9 points, Spacek scoring (4), Pominville, Roy...these guys are hot right now, and even though it's based on only two games, this sort of chemistry is real. Even if they lose tonight, I don't care. 53 shots on goal against Washington, 13 goals in 2 matches, allowing 4 in the process...
And all that despite losing Briere and Drury in the postseason...Buffalo are just too good right now, they seem to have shaken off the rust following a rough start into the season and will be facing a team that hasn't played on the road yet sans the opening game in Ottawa.
And despite the fact they played AT HOME, in front of their fans, they showed nothing but the ability to lose a game they should be controlling (3-1 lead against Pittsburgh turned into a 4-6 final score for the Pens), the ability to lose a game 7-1 in front of their fans, and yes they killed the Isles who were on b2b coming off a huge emotional win against their city rivals Rangers.
Ok, there's more. Toronto have huge goalie problems right now. Their starting goalie Vesa Toskala has made a heroic effort against the Penguins and had 46 saves. Which is not something he usually does, so if anything, I don't think he'd be able to stop nearly as many shots again tonight (note once again, and on the road).
He is 1-3-0 with a 4.48 GAA this season, only .878 save percentage. And despite the fact Toskala had a big night against Pittsburgh (it was his defense who were poor), Toronto are giving the nod to Andrew Raycroft (1-0, 2.44 GAA). That hasn't been confirmed yet, but regardless of who is in net tonight for the Leafs this play stands.
As far as the Leafs are concerned, they have Sundin, Antropov, Steen and Stajan who are hot, but let me tell you, they haven't faced a team like Buffalo as of yet. And especially not on the road (minus Ottawa but it was opening day for the Sens as well, even though they won 3-2). Buffalo will kill them with their fast skating, breakaways and powerplay efficiency.
Leafs' forward Alex Steen admitted himself taking too many penalties is what is costing them. Guess what? Buffalo did exactly that to the Caps, took advantage of their PP chances (Buffalo are 8th on the PP while Toronto are 25th in the NHL even though these numbers mean squat this early in the season). Buffalo PK units are also troublesome but that would worry me more had they played on the road, as they tend to make more mistakes there.
Sabres hockey is an automated system, it doesn't dictate relying on one or two players, but consistently beating the opponent and wearing them down no matter which line is on ice.
Toronto, with their big, slow goon-like physique, will have a tough time adapting to such game, especially on the road, as seen last year a thousand times, as seen against Carolina (in Toronto).
Furthermore: something I don't like emphasizing (I don't like looking into the past but rather focusing on teams TODAY) but here it is, as a curiosity:
The Sabres went 5-3-0 against the Maple Leafs last season, splitting four home games. Buffalo is 10-4-0 in the past 14 meetings overall.
Last, but DEFINITELY not least. Buffalo were paying 2.30 against Capitals at home on the puckline, and now pay 2.72 against Toronto, who haven't had any tough tests of yet sans the opening game in Ottawa? THAT is the reason I am going big here. The odds discrepancy. One more thing: I don't care if this is a trap or something, I've seen the games I wrote about with my own pair of healthy eyes, and I made conclusions from that and from analyzing and knowing how EACH team of these two play.
If I lose I can handle it, I'm a man. And nothing out of the ordinary happens. But this is an investment I cannot pass on.
My call here is: Buffalo 6, Toronto 2.
10 units on the puckline (2.72 @ Pinnacle)
Good luck everyone. :cheers:
However, I am a capper, and I search for discrepancies between bookie estimations and mine. When the discrepancy is big enough, I tend to go big. Never bigger than 10 units (3% of bank) though, which is my maximum play.
Here we go:
Let's remind ourselves of team situations a bit shall we: the Leafs opened the season in Ottawa, lost 3-2, then beat Montreal 4-3, lost to Carolina (1-7!) (both at home), only to bounce back and score a ton on the Islanders, as they beat them 8-1. Now it's not that I don't think Toronto is that bad, I think they'll improve as season progresses, but at the moment I don't rate them better than the Capitals for example.
And the Capitals were the team that were absolutely clueless in Buffalo two days ago. Imagine this. Washington opens the scoring in the first, but the Sabres dominate the ice, create a ton of chances...but nothing. Can't score. "One of those games". Brent Johnson was all over the place. I'll quote Sabres radio pundits: "Brent Johnson is taking up more shots than Ben Johnson used to!"
It looked like a huge struggle but then...
Buffalo recorded a total of 25 shots in the 2nd period ALONE. Up until 4:45 was left on the clock of the 2nd period, the Capitals were up 1:0.
Sabres scored 4 before the clock ran out. That's right, 4 goals in 4:45. Washington scored two more in the third but Buffalo kept pounding and scored three more, only to see the game end 7-3. That's a total of 53 shots in ONE single game.
And coming off a 6-0 thrashing of the Atlanta Thrashers two days prior to that game against Ovechkin and co.
Trust me, I'm not a knee jerk capper, meaning I don't jump to conclusions based on two games only. But having watched and listened (depends on which game we're talking about) these Sabres, they're in their offensive explosion mode.
And against Toronto who have been quite inconsistent. You can't count on them to score either, first they scored 2 in Ottawa and went on a 4 game home stand:
Oct 13, 2007 PIT 6 @ TOR 4
Oct 11, 2007 NYI 1 @ TOR 8
Oct 9, 2007 CAR 7 @ TOR 1
Oct 6, 2007 MTL 3 @ TOR 4
4,1,8,4. And that's AT HOME, against rather inferior opposition to what they'll be facing tonight in Buffalo. The crowd in Buffalo is so fired up, these guys live hockey. And Buffalo have guys scoring from all positions, they have a defenseman (Campbell) who already has 9 points, Spacek scoring (4), Pominville, Roy...these guys are hot right now, and even though it's based on only two games, this sort of chemistry is real. Even if they lose tonight, I don't care. 53 shots on goal against Washington, 13 goals in 2 matches, allowing 4 in the process...
And all that despite losing Briere and Drury in the postseason...Buffalo are just too good right now, they seem to have shaken off the rust following a rough start into the season and will be facing a team that hasn't played on the road yet sans the opening game in Ottawa.
And despite the fact they played AT HOME, in front of their fans, they showed nothing but the ability to lose a game they should be controlling (3-1 lead against Pittsburgh turned into a 4-6 final score for the Pens), the ability to lose a game 7-1 in front of their fans, and yes they killed the Isles who were on b2b coming off a huge emotional win against their city rivals Rangers.
Ok, there's more. Toronto have huge goalie problems right now. Their starting goalie Vesa Toskala has made a heroic effort against the Penguins and had 46 saves. Which is not something he usually does, so if anything, I don't think he'd be able to stop nearly as many shots again tonight (note once again, and on the road).
He is 1-3-0 with a 4.48 GAA this season, only .878 save percentage. And despite the fact Toskala had a big night against Pittsburgh (it was his defense who were poor), Toronto are giving the nod to Andrew Raycroft (1-0, 2.44 GAA). That hasn't been confirmed yet, but regardless of who is in net tonight for the Leafs this play stands.
As far as the Leafs are concerned, they have Sundin, Antropov, Steen and Stajan who are hot, but let me tell you, they haven't faced a team like Buffalo as of yet. And especially not on the road (minus Ottawa but it was opening day for the Sens as well, even though they won 3-2). Buffalo will kill them with their fast skating, breakaways and powerplay efficiency.
Leafs' forward Alex Steen admitted himself taking too many penalties is what is costing them. Guess what? Buffalo did exactly that to the Caps, took advantage of their PP chances (Buffalo are 8th on the PP while Toronto are 25th in the NHL even though these numbers mean squat this early in the season). Buffalo PK units are also troublesome but that would worry me more had they played on the road, as they tend to make more mistakes there.
Sabres hockey is an automated system, it doesn't dictate relying on one or two players, but consistently beating the opponent and wearing them down no matter which line is on ice.
Toronto, with their big, slow goon-like physique, will have a tough time adapting to such game, especially on the road, as seen last year a thousand times, as seen against Carolina (in Toronto).
Furthermore: something I don't like emphasizing (I don't like looking into the past but rather focusing on teams TODAY) but here it is, as a curiosity:
The Sabres went 5-3-0 against the Maple Leafs last season, splitting four home games. Buffalo is 10-4-0 in the past 14 meetings overall.
Last, but DEFINITELY not least. Buffalo were paying 2.30 against Capitals at home on the puckline, and now pay 2.72 against Toronto, who haven't had any tough tests of yet sans the opening game in Ottawa? THAT is the reason I am going big here. The odds discrepancy. One more thing: I don't care if this is a trap or something, I've seen the games I wrote about with my own pair of healthy eyes, and I made conclusions from that and from analyzing and knowing how EACH team of these two play.
If I lose I can handle it, I'm a man. And nothing out of the ordinary happens. But this is an investment I cannot pass on.
My call here is: Buffalo 6, Toronto 2.
10 units on the puckline (2.72 @ Pinnacle)
Good luck everyone. :cheers:
WHAT A GAME this turned out to be!!
