NHL Friday 07.11

[Unicorn]

Played those two early because I think the line may go down over the day. Each play for 1/2 unit until I get my **it back.

Montreal Canadiens/Columbus Blue Jackets (O 5.5) @ 1.862

Dallas Stars/Anaheim Ducks (O 5.5) @ 1.980


Good health today, everyone.

'an_horse'

 

[catfood]

Good luck Unicorn its a long season, and I know how you feel lol:cheers:

 

[catfood]

Whats making you like the over in this one. If my memory serves me well, these 2 usually play unders against each other.

 

[Unicorn]

Good luck Unicorn its a long season, and I know how you feel lol:cheers:

Thanks catfood, appreciate it.

The thing is... I've got all of the confidence in the world this will have to turn around at some point but I'm actually not helping myself by picking too many plays per day and then making some crucial mistakes concerning the amount of money I'm spending on some.

I'll take Tampa last night for an example:

I still believe there was decent value on Bolts because their game has been improving every single day and they're looking much better compared to that team we've seen at the start of the season. But I've completely discarded the fact that Rangers were coming off 2 tough losses and were playing at home. Of course they'll do everything possible to bounce back in this spot. Imho both teams played a very good (and entertaining) game but Tampa basicly screwed themselves on allowed PP which greatly helped Rangers not only to win this game but to do it with decent margin. So, I believe I could've done better on this pick, mainly from stake perspective because I went against my own rule not to put more than 1 unit on underdogs until I get back to .500 or even money. And if that wasn't enough - I've made another mistake and that was putting the same play into that 5-teamer which would've hit if I didn't put Tampa into it...

Anyway, the good thing is we (should) learn from our own mistakes and life goes on, it's not the end of the world.

Good luck, m8!
:cheers:

 

[catfood]

I cant argue choosing TB, but with the way the games have went so far, its hard to take anything else but home fav MLs, were getting OTs and close games (except maybe for last night) like as if it was nearing the end of the season. thing is though we cant make serious money betting home fav ML unless we hit above average and over the course of the season we all know how difficult that is, and any losing skid wipes out everything just like in US sports.

 

[Unicorn]

Whats making you like the over in this one. If my memory serves me well, these 2 usually play unders against each other.

Your memory serves you well but those are situational plays.

Montreal and Columbus - they played last time in February and Blue Jackets stole one from Canadiens in a 3-0 win. (small edge here - Montreal, expecting them to still remember this loss and try for a little revenge tonight). In that game, Leclaire was perfect going 31-for-31 in saves, but he's been hurt now and won't be on the goal tonight but instead it would be their rookie Steve Mason who's coming off his 1st start of the season, a home win against EDM where he allowed 4 goals while posting only .846 save pct. I'm looking for that trend to continue tonight. Back to earlier mentioned February game - for Montreal, Price was on the goal and he was coming off a ND against NYR at home - a game in which he allowed 3 goals but his teammates bailed him out and won 6-5. He previously won 3 straight decisions. Back to present day - Jaroslav Harak is expected to be in the net for Canadiens - and guess what - he's coming off a ND at home vs ANA in which he allowed 4 goals but didn't get a loss although his team lost 4-6. He previously won his first 2 decisions (@ TOR and vs FLA). I've checked previous seasons about his home/away records and this guy is a typical home goalie with pretty decent home stats against just average away numbers. Now, Montreal has been scoring 6-5-4-4-3-4-3-2-5 goals this season overall and 6-5-2-5 in their road games. They're coming off a 5-4 win @ NYI and I find no reason why wouldn't they score at least 4 goals tonight. Columbus on the other hand, seems like they've found their rhythm by scoring 2-4-3-3-5 goals in their L5 games while at the same time allowing 3-2-4-4-4 which is not good. And tonight, as I've already said - they'll have their rookie on goal. Enough for me to take the Over here... Expecting around 6 or 7 goals (MON 4-2 or 4-3 would do).

g2g now be back later...

 

[Unicorn]

I cant argue choosing TB, but with the way the games have went so far, its hard to take anything else but home fav MLs, were getting OTs and close games (except maybe for last night) like as if it was nearing the end of the season. thing is though we cant make serious money betting home fav ML unless we hit above average and over the course of the season we all know how difficult that is, and any losing skid wipes out everything just like in US sports.

Exactly and when you take into consideration that someone's a typical "value" bettor or if you prefer more - underdog bettor - there you go - a bunch of lost € or $ so far...

 

[Santacapper]

GL Unicorn

 

[gsro]

gl uni =)

 

[catfood]

Your memory serves you well but those are situational plays.

Montreal and Columbus - they played last time in February and Blue Jackets stole one from Canadiens in a 3-0 win. (small edge here - Montreal, expecting them to still remember this loss and try for a little revenge tonight). In that game, Leclaire was perfect going 31-for-31 in saves, but he's been hurt now and won't be on the goal tonight but instead it would be their rookie Steve Mason who's coming off his 1st start of the season, a home win against EDM where he allowed 4 goals while posting only .846 save pct. I'm looking for that trend to continue tonight. Back to earlier mentioned February game - for Montreal, Price was on the goal and he was coming off a ND against NYR at home - a game in which he allowed 3 goals but his teammates bailed him out and won 6-5. He previously won 3 straight decisions. Back to present day - Jaroslav Harak is expected to be in the net for Canadiens - and guess what - he's coming off a ND at home vs ANA in which he allowed 4 goals but didn't get a loss although his team lost 4-6. He previously won his first 2 decisions (@ TOR and vs FLA). I've checked previous seasons about his home/away records and this guy is a typical home goalie with pretty decent home stats against just average away numbers. Now, Montreal has been scoring 6-5-4-4-3-4-3-2-5 goals this season overall and 6-5-2-5 in their road games. They're coming off a 5-4 win @ NYI and I find no reason why wouldn't they score at least 4 goals tonight. Columbus on the other hand, seems like they've found their rhythm by scoring 2-4-3-3-5 goals in their L5 games while at the same time allowing 3-2-4-4-4 which is not good. And tonight, as I've already said - they'll have their rookie on goal. Enough for me to take the Over here... Expecting around 6 or 7 goals (MON 4-2 or 4-3 would do).

g2g now be back later...

Thanks for the well thought of explanation! Id add though, be careful with Halak, his away record is mostly from 2 years ago and the habs had a different team back then.

 

[Unicorn]

Adding my final play for tonight:

Dallas Stars vs Anaheim Ducks (-0.5) @ 2.040

1/2 Unit

'an_horse'

 

[gsro]

yay for us =) got the over