NFL

L

Loves2kickass

Here to cap the games
Mon, September 22
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

Detroit Lions +4.5 -110 (1.1-1.0)
Detroit Lions TT 23.5ov -135 (1.35-1.0)

i have this game lined as Detroit Lions PK -116 in a tight, 1 point win 31-30. I don't bet game totals but if I did there's value with the over 53.5.
 
Mon, September 22
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

Detroit Lions +4 -110 (1.1-1.0) 2/H

Tied at the half and getting just about the same 2nd half line as the full game line.
 
Mon, September 22
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

Detroit Lions +4.5 -110 (1.1-1.0) W (38-30)
Detroit Lions TT 23.5ov -135 (1.35-1.0) W (TT 38)
Detroit Lions +4 -110 (1.1-1.0) 2/H W (24-16)

Model Projection - Detroit Lions 31 Baltimore Ravens 30 (61)
Actual Final Score - Detroit Lions 38 Baltimore Ravens 30 (68)

The Detroit Lions game line covered by 12.5 and the Detroit Lions 2/H line by 12. The mentioned value with the game total over covered by 14.5.
 
TNF Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals thoughts - This line opened at a PK with a total of 43.5. I was hoping the line would move towards the Arizona Cardinals but it appears that's not happening early in the week. Conversely, it has moved to the Seattle Seahawks -1.5.

I have this game lined at Seattle Seahawks -3. The total opened dead on my model projection of 43.5. It appears it will be a no bet for me but there's a few great opportunities on Sunday.
 
Top 5 team offense & defense based on my model through week 3 -

OFFENSE
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Seattle Seahawks

DEFENSE
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. New England Patriots
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Atlanta Falcons
 
The New York Giants just announced Russell Wilson will be benched this week and they will start their rookie Jaxson Dart vs the San Diego Chargers
 
Sun, September 28
Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin, IRE)

Minnesota Vikings -145 (1.45-1.0)
Minnesota Vikings TT 20.5ov -125 (1.25-1.0)

i have this game lined as Minnesota Vikings -9.5 -129 just reaching a double digit win 31-21. Value with over 41.
 
Sun, September 28
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions

Cleveland Browns +10 -115 (1.15-1.0)

i have this game lined as Detroit -1 -115 in a tight, 1-2 point win 23-21. No value on team totals or the game total.
 
Sun, September 28

BETS (in order of strength)
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Cleveland Browns +10 -115 (1.15-1.0)
I have this game lined at Detroit Lions -1 -115

Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Carolina Panthers +5.5, -110 (1.10-1.0)
I have this game lined at Carolina Panthers -2.5 -120

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City +2.5 -105 (1.05-1.0)
I have this game lined at Kansas City Chiefs -5, -138

Minnesota Vikings v Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin, IRE)
Minnesota Vikings -145 (1.45-1.0)
Minnesota Vikings TT 20.5ov -125 (1.25-1.0)
I have this game lined at Minnesota Vikings -9.5 -129

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay Packers -6.5 -110 (1.1-1.0)
I have this game lined at Green Bay Packers -12.5 -140

LEANS (in order of strength)
New York Jets +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints +15.5 @ Buffalo Bills
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @ Los Angeles Rams
Las Vegas Raiders PK vs Chicago Bears
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 @ New York Giants
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 @ Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons +1 vs Washington Commanders
Tennessee Titans +7.5 @ Houston Texans
 
Loves2kickass said:
Sun, September 28
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions

Cleveland Browns +10 -115 (1.15-1.0)

i have this game lined as Detroit -1 -115 in a tight, 1-2 point win 23-21. No value on team totals or the game total.
Click to expand...
Fair enough here and I've been warning the novice fans all week that this is no gimme.

So, my thought and question regarding the Browns --

Where do they land on your defensive rankings? Statistically (small sample) they are right near the top in the NFL. I'm guessing they are just outside your top 5 for that game line you have to be so short.

Looking fwd to the thoughts.
 
B.A.R. said:
Fair enough here and I've been warning the novice fans all week that this is no gimme.

So, my thought and question regarding the Browns --

Where do they land on your defensive rankings? Statistically (small sample) they are right near the top in the NFL. I'm guessing they are just outside your top 5 for that game line you have to be so short.

Looking fwd to the thoughts.
Click to expand...
Top 5 team offense & defense based on my model through week 3 -

OFFENSE
1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Seattle Seahawks

DEFENSE
1. Seattle Seahawks
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. New England Patriots
4. Tennessee Titans
5. Atlanta Falcons
 
B.A.R. said:
Fair enough here and I've been warning the novice fans all week that this is no gimme.

So, my thought and question regarding the Browns --

Where do they land on your defensive rankings? Statistically (small sample) they are right near the top in the NFL. I'm guessing they are just outside your top 5 for that game line you have to be so short.

Looking fwd to the thoughts.
Click to expand...
What makes that game close is the Lions def.
 
B.A.R. said:
Fair enough here and I've been warning the novice fans all week that this is no gimme.

So, my thought and question regarding the Browns --

Where do they land on your defensive rankings? Statistically (small sample) they are right near the top in the NFL. I'm guessing they are just outside your top 5 for that game line you have to be so short.

Looking fwd to the thoughts.
Click to expand...
On grass in Cleveland -
Clev -3 -112
 
B.A.R. said:
Fair enough here and I've been warning the novice fans all week that this is no gimme.

So, my thought and question regarding the Browns --

Where do they land on your defensive rankings? Statistically (small sample) they are right near the top in the NFL. I'm guessing they are just outside your top 5 for that game line you have to be so short.

Looking fwd to the thoughts.
Click to expand...
I was a little tired last night so my reasoning was bad. Good luck today in college foots.
 
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