NFL Wildcard Weekend Discussion

Noles4life said:
ONLY THING that concerns me is washington record this season vs teams with winning records..... and regarding the RLM have u seen the % is more $$ comin in on wash?
Click to expand...

Right, how good is Washington really? Who have they beaten this year? Of course GB has looked pretty pathetic lately, but they've been here many times in the past and have one of the 2 best QBs in the league on their side...they have to like their chances beating a pretty mediocre Washington team. If this game was 2-3 weeks ago in the same venue, would the line have been anything less than GB -3?

Washington did not beat a team this season with a winning record. Not one of their wins came against a team better than 8-8, and that was the Bills. I realize they can only play who's on their schedule, but they lost to every team they played with a winning record.
 
Lareux said:
Washington did not beat a team this season with a winning record. Not one of their wins came against a team better than 8-8, and that was the Bills. I realize they can only play who's on their schedule, but they lost to every team they played with a winning record.
Click to expand...

No they didn't and Green bay beat three but two of those were Seattle & KC in weeks 2 & 3 (Minn the other) when both of those teams were playing like crap. Down the stretch Wash was 7-3 losing at home only to Dallas while the Pack lost 6 of their last 10 and wasn't impressive at all. To me this game's about as coin flip as it gets.
 
just some food for though here......I THINK HOU getting 3.5 at home with that D is real appealing both teams playing well KC D isnt anything special and i can see Hou having success against them, on the flip side its not inconceivable to have hou shutting down KC esp since kc isnt an explosive off i dont see them putting together 10-13 play drives consistently to score on Hou...... classic case if better team D at home getting points i think its a must take this has 20-17 written all over it, and Hou has been in this position before in the playoffs with a back up.......Pitt D has looked awful and again i think Cincy has best roster top to bottom and for them to get 3 pts at home i think is value too.... AJ is capable and they should have success vs pitt D .. Deangelo is hurting and if he cant go thats big trouble for pitt..... flip side i know its square to like SEA but think there just better team n D is on point right now.... teddy wont beat them...... and now to Wash/GB with wash its can they beat a decent team they did lose to 3 winning teams they played but to there defense it was pats panthers n jets.... i wonder how gb will cover wash WR garcon desean (now healthy) and crowder should be able to spread them out and take adv..... if GB D all of a sudden looks like world beaters ill pay to see that... if wash can generate a pass rush which i expect not sure its anything diff from GB that we have seen lately
 
i think 7 pt teasers should be money.... can get hou +10.5, Cincy +10.5 Wash +8 and if u like sea +2....... not sure any of these games are blow outs.... and i think i just convinced my self to atleast do Hou, cincy sat getting 10 on both.... which is key #s
 
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1/09

4:35 PM


101 KC-A Smith
102 HOU-B Hoyer
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: bets"] 14297
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 70%
30%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 54%
46%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 69%
31%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pressure"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3
40.5
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3.5+102
40
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-130
40
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-120
40
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-125
40
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[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -3.5+109/-115
40
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3.5
40
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40
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1/09

8:15 PM


105 PIT-B Roethlisberger
106 CIN-AJ MCCARRON
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[TD="class: bets"] 13927
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[TD="class: pct"] 65%
35%
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[TD="class: pct"] 54%
46%
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[TD="class: pct"] 67%
33%
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[TD="class: pct"] 68%
32%
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[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
46
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+102
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-105
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] -3+105/-109
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3-105
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -3+100
45.5
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1/10

1:05 PM


103 SEA-R Wilson
104 MIN-T Bridgewater
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[TD="class: pct"] 74%
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[TD="class: pct"] 81%
19%
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39.5
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39.5
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40
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -4.5
39.5
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39.5o-102/-106
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -5.5
39.5
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40
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1/10

4:45 PM


107 GB-A Rodgers
108 WAS-K Cousins
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[TD="class: bets"] 12097
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[TD="class: pct"] 49%
51%
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[TD="class: pct"] 55%
45%
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[TD="class: pct"] 77%
23%
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[TD="class: pct"] 47%
53%
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[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook"] 46
0
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1+102
45.5u-109
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-105
45
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] -1-105
45.5
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[TD="class: sportsbook"] 45
0
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[TD="class: sportsbook_full"] 45.5u-106/+103
0-105/-105
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Gorgolon Lives said:
HOU D playing with spirit right now. Hopkins is a guy that can win games on his own. Andy Reid awesome REG SEASON coach. Once playoffs come, his teams fold. Al Smith laying points on road in the playoffs? Lots of value in the home dog here.
Click to expand...

Reid got to 5 NFC Championship games no? Won many wild card and divisional rounds.
 
people can't keep on using the "who have they beaten" angle in my opinion. there are so many bad teams in the NFL, that almost all good teams beat up on a bunch of them. you can only play/beat who is on your schedule.
 
Im on KC to be the big public play to win, Wash and Cincy big, and stayign away from Seattle/Minny
 
D-Woww said:
people can't keep on using the "who have they beaten" angle in my opinion. there are so many bad teams in the NFL, that almost all good teams beat up on a bunch of them. you can only play/beat who is on your schedule.
Click to expand...


Yup. But the playoffs bring forth a completely new ball game. With the packers im not really sure if they were trying to win the last game of the year.
 
D-Woww said:
people can't keep on using the "who have they beaten" angle in my opinion. there are so many bad teams in the NFL, that almost all good teams beat up on a bunch of them. you can only play/beat who is on your schedule.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Who has Seattle beaten? They beat the vikes when half the vikes defense was injured and they beat AZ in week 17 (and you could argue AZ mailed in most of that game).

They are not the top dog in the NFC. They will probably win this week but they are not going to the Superbowl. They are on a path of murderers row to get there IMO.
 
nbafan88 said:
Yup. But the playoffs bring forth a completely new ball game. With the packers im not really sure if they were trying to win the last game of the year.
Click to expand...

ridiculous. Not trying to win a game to win the division, get a home game, and get a game against an opponent you (would have) beat twice in a season?????

They got their ass kicked most of that game. pure and simple. They are not the team that they were last year or the year before...
 
^^^^ exactly everyone keeps saying they (GB) lost because they didnt want to play seattle... if GB won they would have been a 3 seed at home vs VIKINGS>>> they were def trying to win that game... GB is who they are .... a team that has to run the ball well to set up the pass because there WR can not get any separation and when they do its because Aaron was running around and gave his WR time to improvise.. there D stinks... So if they can establish a running game with lacy they have a chance, otherwise good night..... my question is can GB stop wash? desean, garcon n reed and even crowder how are they going to stop them?
 
The ONLY thing that you could argue for the packers is that Rodgers is one of teh GOAT and as a team they have been there before. In terms of talent on both sides of the ball and how the teams have looked over the last 2 months, its washington in a landslide. if GB wins is bc this is nothing to ARod and company, while the moment could be too big for the Washington guys who havent been there. Which is entirely possible, but I'll take the hot team that seems to be gelling and playing with a ton of confidence.
 
What if Kirk Cousins looks like playoff Andy Dalton? This game can go a million directions.
 
A few playoff thoughts.
Pulling for big red and kc.
Would like to see the vikes move on but I don't trust teddy, he misses too many guys who are running wide open downfield.
Gb wideouts can't get open, plain and simple. The gb offense has been off all yr. I think Washington wins.
 
P-Unit said:
ridiculous. Not trying to win a game to win the division, get a home game, and get a game against an opponent you (would have) beat twice in a season?????

They got their ass kicked most of that game. pure and simple. They are not the team that they were last year or the year before...
Click to expand...


It is ridiculous but I don't think they fear the redskins as much as the Vikings. And neither would I. Plus it's tough beating an opponent 3 times in one season.


Im just not putting that much stock into what I saw from the packers last week. I said it before during and after the game.
 
Come on they would much prefer the home game and the revenue that comes with it than "the path"

I really think everyone is just jumping on Washington because they want to fade GB without looking at the other side of it, how great is Washington? Wouldn't be surprising to me to see GB try to make Wash beat them, just don't make mistakes...low scoring game possibly. Both sides could be waiting for the other to make a mistake.
 
Not sure it will be terribly windy here on Sunday, but thought this was interesting.
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Michael Lopez‏@StatsbyLopez
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Going to be windy in Minnesota. Here's a plot of total NFL pts vs closing o/u, separated by wind speed
CYIDgNqWQAAWOsH.png



 
What about the Steelers/Bengals game. No way anybody can put their money on basically a rookie AJ McCarron in a playoffs game right? Big Ben with tons of experience but without a running game. This game is hard to figure out.
 
cogenman said:
What about the Steelers/Bengals game. No way anybody can put their money on basically a rookie AJ McCarron in a playoffs game right? Big Ben with tons of experience but without a running game. This game is hard to figure out.
Click to expand...

Considering Andy's playoff record, could AJ be an upgrade? Not really a serious question as I'm sure they would prefer their #1, but does appear as if Andy gets himself psyched out in the playoffs. Lack of a running game going to hurt Stees. You never know week to week in this league, but Ben and the defense both looked bad last couple weeks and you can count on the coaching staff to screw something up in this game. I'm obviously a homer and will be pulling for the road team (played it at -2.5 at the open and bought off at +3), but I think Cincy +10 is a great tease partner. Not sure on total, but would lean under.
 
P could you be kind enough to put that graph in English? I'm riding shotgun on the highway & will puke if I try to figure it out.
 
Good article in the Post-Gazette supporting the under as well. To sum it up, Ben has had no success throwing deep vs Cincinnati so expect a lot of shorter routes.
 
Cincy/Pit:
Which Qb would you rather have over the last three weeks:

QB 1 65% completion, 4TDs 0 picks
QB 2 67% completion, 6TDs 6 picks

AJ
Big Ben

Perception vs. reality
 
Marsski said:
Cincy/Pit:
Which Qb would you rather have over the last three weeks:

QB 1 65% completion, 4TDs 0 picks
QB 2 67% completion, 6TDs 6 picks

AJ
Big Ben

Perception vs. reality
Click to expand...

The one that doesn't throw more picks than TD's in the playoffs the last 3 years :cigarguy:
 
C-MAN said:
Good article in the Post-Gazette supporting the under as well. To sum it up, Ben has had no success throwing deep vs Cincinnati so expect a lot of shorter routes.
Click to expand...

A. Brown rec props over. He might catch 14
 
nbafan88 said:
It is ridiculous but I don't think they fear the redskins as much as the Vikings. And neither would I. Plus it's tough beating an opponent 3 times in one season.


Im just not putting that much stock into what I saw from the packers last week. I said it before during and after the game.
Click to expand...

Fighting for home field is never important. Much better to have a road game than a home game in the playoffs.

You're obviously trolling at least I hope. :hang:
 
Road QBs this weekend: 37 combined career playoff starts.
Home QBs this weekend: 0 combined career playoff starts.
 
Ok... coming out of posting retirement for this one..

I keep hearing this: "Houston's defense has been on fire of late". Give me a freaking break. 3 games they have played well. Against Hasselbeck, Mettenberger and the Jaguars. Before that? Gave up 27 and 30 to the Pats and Bills. They have a very talented defense, make no mistake. And they are excellent on 3rd down D. But let's pump the brakes on how amazing they are. If Houston is going to win, it's because of Hopkins being too much for Peters. I'd be far more concerned as to how Houston will score on KC than the other way around. Seeing as though the metrics have KC being the better D against the Pass and the Run and have actually been the "hotter D" (see: Weighted DVOA). And Alex Smith > Brian Hoyer

I also keep hearing: "Yeah, Kansas City won 10 in a row against nobody". Ok... In this league, we have some bad teams. The difference is, KC is putting these teams away and not losing. Pittsburgh? They lost to Baltimore. New England? Miami. Seattle? St. Louis. KC finishes the job. You cannot win 10 in a row in this league accidentally.

They also did it without two KEY defenders for the latter portion of the season (let's not even get started on losing Charles) in Justin Houston and Hussain Abdullah.

I get it. I am contrarian by nature. I look at %'s and line movement, etc. Sometimes though it is just a lot simpler than that (and I outlined this in the preseason win totals thread for Over 8.5). I am not overthinking this one. The better team is the road team playing in a venue that one does not often consider a big home advantage.

I never ever bet with my heart. My brain tells me KC -3 all day.

If anyone cares, I lean Pitt, Minn if it keeps going up and Wash as a dog.
 
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http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/1/7...e-record-and-division-rivalries-play-into-nfl

How home field advantage, record and division rivalries play into NFL Wild Card playoff outcomes

Looking back, over the last decade of NFL seasons, there have been a total of 40 games played in the Wild Card round. What have we learned over that span of time when it comes to who has the advantage in a Wild Card game?

Better Record Advantage?

In those 40 games, 7 of them have featured teams with the same number of wins. In the other 33 games, the team with the better record was 18-15, winning just barely more than half of the games with a 55 percent success rate.
In the Wild Card round, many of the games feature teams with similar records, such as a 10 win team facing an 11 win team, or a 12 win team playing against an 11 win team. But what about games where the overall regular season records are not as close? Looking at the games where the team with a better record had at least two more wins, the team with at least two more wins was only 7-7 against their opponent. So having a better record of at least two more wins only yields no better than a 50 percent chance that the team with the better record will win.

Home Field Advantage?

So, if record doesn't seem to play much of a factor in predicting who will win in the Wild Card round, what about home field advantage? Does the team who plays at home win more often?
In the 40 games played in the Wild Card round over the last decade, the home team has won 23 games, and lost 17. The home team has won 58 percent of the time. While this is slightly better than the 55 percent success rate for teams based on record, the 58 percent isn't much of a jump.
Historically, the NFL home team will win about 57 percent to 60 percent of the time in the regular season, depending on how large of a sample size you use. So the Wild Card round home team winning 58 percent of the time fits perfectly into the NFL average.

Better Record + Home Field Advantage?

So far we have seen that a better record and home field only seem to provide slight advantages. But what about a team who has a better record and home field advantage?
There have been 17 such games played since 2005. In those games, the teams with home field and the better record are 11-5, for a 65 percent rate of winning. This combination yields the best results yet, with almost two thirds of teams fitting into this category coming away with a victory.

Divisional Rematch?

What does the rare occurrence of a Wild Card game that features two teams from the same division yield?
In the 40 Wild Card games since 2005, this has only happened six times. In those six games, the team who won the division came away with a victory in four of the six games. Interestingly, the only two times the team who won the division did not win the Wild Card matchup were the two times that the rematch involved teams from AFC North - last year between the Ravens and Steelers, and 2005 between the Bengals and Steelers.

So how does this all fit into the 2015 Wild Card games?

Chiefs (11-5) at Houston (9-7)
The Chiefs have a better record (by 2 games), which historically means a victory 50 percent to 55 percent of the time. The Texans are at home, which gives them a 58 percent chance. Therefore, history slightly favors the Texans.

Steelers (10-6) at Bengals (12-4)
The Bengals have a better record (by 2 games) and are also at home. The combination of the Bengals possessing a better record and playing at home, increases the historical success rate to 65 percent, and if you factor in the rare intra-divisional rematch, the odds of a victory for the Bengals inches up to 67 percent.

Seahawks (10-6) at Vikings (11-5)
The Vikings have a better record (by 1 game) and are also at home, which historically means a victory 58 percent of the time.The combination of the Vikings possessing a better record and playing at home, increases the historical success rate to 65 percent.

Packers (10-6) at Redskins (9-7)
The Packers have a better record (by 1 game), which historically means a victory 55 percent of the time. The Redskins are at home, which gives them a 58 percent chance. Therefore, history slightly favors the Redskins.

Ultimately, every game is unique and is not dictated by past events. But it is interesting to see historically how the various combinations of better record, home field, and divisional rematches have played out in the playoffs. With these past events in mind, teams in similar situations as the Bengals and Vikings have won about two thirds of the time, while the other games are essentially 50/50 wagers.
 
Gabe said:
Road QBs this weekend: 37 combined career playoff starts.
Home QBs this weekend: 0 combined career playoff starts.
Click to expand...

[TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 792"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH]Away Team[/TH]
[TH]Head Coach[/TH]
[TH]Playoff Wins[/TH]
[TH]Home Team[/TH]
[TH]Head Coach[/TH]
[TH]Playoff Wins[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas City[/TD]
[TD]Andy Reid[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Houston[/TD]
[TD]Bill O'Brien[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Mike Tomlin[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati[/TD]
[TD]Marvin Lewis[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seattle[/TD]
[TD]Pete Carroll[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]Mike Zimmer[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Green Bay[/TD]
[TD]Mike McCarthy[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Jay Gruden[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


[TABLE="class: outer_border, width: 659"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TH="class: sort-desc"]Away Team[/TH]
[TH]QB[/TH]
[TH]Furthest Experience in Playoffs[/TH]
[TH]Home Team[/TH]
[TH]QB[/TH]
[TH]Number of Playoff Starts[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seattle[/TD]
[TD]Russell Wilson[/TD]
[TD]Won Super Bowl XLVIII[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]Teddy Bridgewater[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Ben Roethlisberger[/TD]
[TD]Won Super Bowls XL and XLIII[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati[/TD]
[TD]AJ McCarron[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kansas City[/TD]
[TD]Alex Smith[/TD]
[TD]Lost NFC Championship[/TD]
[TD]Houston[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hoyer[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Green Bay[/TD]
[TD]Aaron Rodgers[/TD]
[TD]Won Super Bowl XLV[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Kirk Cousins[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
A couple of things I've seen on other sites for all you trend hounds;

Since 2004, teams entering the playoffs on an eight game or longer straight up winning streak, are 0-13 ATS in their first game.

Since 2002 (?), by merely using SOS numbers to pick the winner, the result is 37-14-1 ATS in the Wild Card game. Also noted with this tidbit is the fact that in every season it has not lost. There were years it pushed. fwiw
 
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Marsski said:
Cincy/Pit:
Which Qb would you rather have over the last three weeks:

QB 1 65% completion, 4TDs 0 picks
QB 2 67% completion, 6TDs 6 picks

AJ
Big Ben

Perception vs. reality
Click to expand...


Are you saying that you'd rather have AJ than Big Ben because Big Ben has thrown more interceptions? Is that what I'm reading?
 
inZane said:
A couple of things I've seen on other sites for all you trend hounds;

Since 2004, teams entering the playoffs on an eight game or longer straight up winning streak, are 0-13 ATS in their first game.

Since 2002 (?), by merely using SOS numbers to pick the winner, the result is 37-14-1 ATS in the Wild Card game. Also noted with this tidbit is the fact that in every season it has not lost. There were years it pushed. fwiw
Click to expand...

2-1 ATS in the Wildcard Round, mainly applies to the teams on the bye. There are no teams in that spot this season.
 
The straight-up winner in NFL Wild Card Round playoff games is 111-12-4 ATS since 1980.​
 
Capaholic said:
Ok... coming out of posting retirement for this one..

I keep hearing this: "Houston's defense has been on fire of late". Give me a freaking break. 3 games they have played well. Against Hasselbeck, Mettenberger and the Jaguars. Before that? Gave up 27 and 30 to the Pats and Bills. They have a very talented defense, make no mistake. And they are excellent on 3rd down D. But let's pump the brakes on how amazing they are. If Houston is going to win, it's because of Hopkins being too much for Peters. I'd be far more concerned as to how Houston will score on KC than the other way around. Seeing as though the metrics have KC being the better D against the Pass and the Run and have actually been the "hotter D" (see: Weighted DVOA). And Alex Smith > Brian Hoyer

I also keep hearing: "Yeah, Kansas City won 10 in a row against nobody". Ok... In this league, we have some bad teams. The difference is, KC is putting these teams away and not losing. Pittsburgh? They lost to Baltimore. New England? Miami. Seattle? St. Louis. KC finishes the job. You cannot win 10 in a row in this league accidentally.

They also did it without two KEY defenders for the latter portion of the season (let's not even get started on losing Charles) in Justin Houston and Hussain Abdullah.

I get it. I am contrarian by nature. I look at %'s and line movement, etc. Sometimes though it is just a lot simpler than that (and I outlined this in the preseason win totals thread for Over 8.5). I am not overthinking this one. The better team is the road team playing in a venue that one does not often consider a big home advantage.

I never ever bet with my heart. My brain tells me KC -3 all day.

If anyone cares, I lean Pitt, Minn if it keeps going up and Wash as a dog.
Click to expand...

Just to play devils advocate, The patriots 2 td drives they started past the 40, and the last td was a fumble recovery on the 7 yard line(which is the one ill let go). To keep the patriots to 20 total points essentially, brady under 230 passing yards, and only 106 total rushing yards(by rbs), id say thats good. Also,chiefs offense is no patriots offense.

The bills game I'll give you, but that game was 21-21 with 2 minutes left before a 40 yard scoring td.

You also failed to mention that before the 2 games vs the bills and pats, they stopped cincy, jets, and saints to 6, 17, and 6 respectively.

Oh, and Foster may have been just as important to that team as charles is to the chiefs.

I am not taking anything away from the chiefs, at all...I love there defense too.... but again, pointing out other information.
 
Dude the Patriots destroyed them for 3.5 quarters....they didn't have big stats b/c the game was decided at half. Not that it has any matter on tomorrow's outcome but that game was a blowout in every sense.
 
cogenman said:
What about the Steelers/Bengals game. No way anybody can put their money on basically a rookie AJ McCarron in a playoffs game right? Big Ben with tons of experience but without a running game. This game is hard to figure out.
Click to expand...

with dalton id lean pit, with mccarron i lean cincy. mccarron is basically a non ginger winning version of dalton is he not? we know dude wont choke up in a wild card game as he has succeeded on bigger stages and his wrs should make it pretty easy against pit terrible secondary.
 
I don't know that it means anything, but seems like most of the guys I talk betting with (mostly square as hell) were ready to back Wash when the games were released - probably b/c GB's abysmal week 17 was fresh in everyone's minds, but as we get closer to game day, everyone is moving over to GB with ARod and all their playoff experience.
 
Capaholic said:
Ok... coming out of posting retirement for this one..

I keep hearing this: "Houston's defense has been on fire of late". Give me a freaking break. 3 games they have played well. Against Hasselbeck, Mettenberger and the Jaguars. Before that? Gave up 27 and 30 to the Pats and Bills. They have a very talented defense, make no mistake. And they are excellent on 3rd down D. But let's pump the brakes on how amazing they are. If Houston is going to win, it's because of Hopkins being too much for Peters. I'd be far more concerned as to how Houston will score on KC than the other way around. Seeing as though the metrics have KC being the better D against the Pass and the Run and have actually been the "hotter D" (see: Weighted DVOA). And Alex Smith > Brian Hoyer

I also keep hearing: "Yeah, Kansas City won 10 in a row against nobody". Ok... In this league, we have some bad teams. The difference is, KC is putting these teams away and not losing. Pittsburgh? They lost to Baltimore. New England? Miami. Seattle? St. Louis. KC finishes the job. You cannot win 10 in a row in this league accidentally.

They also did it without two KEY defenders for the latter portion of the season (let's not even get started on losing Charles) in Justin Houston and Hussain Abdullah.

I get it. I am contrarian by nature. I look at %'s and line movement, etc. Sometimes though it is just a lot simpler than that (and I outlined this in the preseason win totals thread for Over 8.5). I am not overthinking this one. The better team is the road team playing in a venue that one does not often consider a big home advantage.

I never ever bet with my heart. My brain tells me KC -3 all day.

If anyone cares, I lean Pitt, Minn if it keeps going up and Wash as a dog.
Click to expand...

As I said. Don't overthink it
 
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