NFL week 9--

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 posted on CTG

30-22, +12,425

_________________________________________________

3-0 last week.

Gonna lock this one in now as it will move IMO as Ram injury news comes out.

Ariz -3, -115; 4 units WIN
Ariz -3, -120, 2 units WIN

adds:

ML parlay Clev, Indy, 2 units (1000-1193) LOSS<!-- / message -->
clev TT over 10 2H, -115; 2 units WIN
Tampa 2h TT over 13, -115; 2 units WIN
Rams TT 2h over 10.5, -130; 2 units LOSS
Dallas TT 2H over 7.5, -105; 4 units.. LOSS
Colts 2H TT over 13, -115; 4 units



Been cashing on the undervalued Rams for awhile. Now they are valued correctly again and even Todd Palin is betting them now.. Time to jump on the other side as this is a real bad spot IMO..

Bunch of gimped up Rams in very key positions. Leonard Little is questionable, defense Tackle Adam Carriker questionable, Steven Jackson, very questionable.

Warner, is playing at a proBowl level. True, the Cards have had trouble traveling in the past but Warner should feel very comfortable in the ED this week.. 30 games in the downtown STL dome in his career: 67% completion, 8,389 yards, 64 touchdowns and a QB rating of 102.

Look at Warner's road numbers this year. Over 90 passer rating and if you take away the one real bad game (at Jets) his road numbers are incredible.. Add Boldin to the mix vs Ram defense that is going to have a hard time pressuring without the Blitz and I see problems in the LOU.

Why? You simply will get torched by Warner if you blitz. When Warner is Blitzed this year (93 times) he is completing 71 percent, 7 TDs, 1 INT with a QB rating of 120.

I love Donnie Avery but he is still a work in progress. Torry Holt is in a strange funk and he even spouted off this week about not getting the ball enough.. Bad timing for a selfish comment like that.. Memo to Torry- one, you got a girl name to begin with so quick acting like one. You have lost a step and are no longer capable of creating separation in the Sunday league AND you are too much of a pussy to become a "late in career" over the middle possession receiver.. Find a new role pal or you will become obsolete quickly.. Donnie Avery is you, 7 years ago.. Accept it.

Bottom line in this game is the Cardinals are getting a ton better with Boldin back and they got a guy who is beloved in the LOU to begin with and playing at a Pro Bowl level, Warner.. Bulger just won't be able to keep up.. Leonard Little, even if he plays will be limited--that is a big key to the game..

I got more but this is getting long.. Fire away if questions..

Adds: will come from this list--

GB
Denver
Dallas
NE
Pitt
 
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Blue_Chip said:
going oppo todd boy was cash money for mnff
Click to expand...

With election coming up rumor has it He and Sammy Meatballs have been drinking heavily with Strippers..

Never make good decisions when drinking heavily with strippers.

 
I agree with your assement in the Rams game. Holt thinks it's the play calling when it's really him. I think Arizona's Dline line is very underrated and will punish a below average Rams Oline.
It looks like it's Arizona's time. I wasn't someone who believed in them when everyone kept picking them to make the playoffs but this year I do.
Only thing that worries me is how much is on the line in this game. Rams win and its a race. Rams lose and the season is over. GL!
 
I'm warming up to GB +4, but the problem I have is GB's #25 rush defense. They won't control the clock. Does GB stand a chance of controlling the LOS?
 
^ Blue - unlikely. Your problem with GB is maybe the biggest problem of them all. IMO Titans have the opportunity to own this game (and score board) minute by minute. CJ and LW have been dubbed Thunder and Lightning for a reason. If you liked the Packers, taking them on Tuesday at +5.5 or 6 woulda been a much better bet. At 4, TEN is the winning ticket I think. The fact that the Titans have logged 18 sacks and 12 picks in 7 games is gonna be an undeniable issue for A. Rogers.

Just my $0.02 :tiphat:
 
I was drinking heavily with this guy and this thing we were making love to when we bumped into this guy who said he is this week.
 
Hey tee! I agree on many of your points in regards to the Cards, however...this will be their second road game in a row, and last week was a tough, tough loss at Carolina. The Panthers really did well to punish the Cards all game in a physical battle.

I might be a fool, but...I think the Rams will continue their solid play today.

Regardless, best of luck!

:cheers:
 
keep it rolling tee...

i really think jax intends to play which should help the reams (typo but i like it) keep warner/bouldin/fitz on the sidelines. do you still love them with jax on the field? last outing, two weeks ago, he looked unstoppable.
 
Blue_Chip said:
I'm warming up to GB +4, but the problem I have is GB's #25 rush defense. They won't control the clock. Does GB stand a chance of controlling the LOS?
Click to expand...

Ya and Tenny averages a buck forty five on the ground... Made my list because of the situation.. Short week for Tenny and GB coming off the bye.. Reportedly, Rodgers shoulder is back to 100%.. Perfect letdown spot for Tenny at home IMO... Not sure it is a play though, and certainly lost some of the value with the line move from 5.5 to 4..
 
scraps@midnight said:
keep it rolling tee...

i really think jax intends to play which should help the reams (typo but i like it) keep warner/bouldin/fitz on the sidelines. do you still love them with jax on the field? last outing, two weeks ago, he looked unstoppable.
Click to expand...

gametime decision whether he plays and he got very limited reps in practice all week.. Thigh injury.. My thing-- i would be suprised if he plays and if he does play I would be very surprised if he makes an impact..

This is just me--but for gambling purposes the Rams are one of the teams I follow intimately, see every snap of every game etc.. Even a healthy Jackson is extremely over rated IMO.. I don't like the "skip at the line looking for a hole" bullshit and he is surprisingly ineffective in short yardage.. Ya he is big and moves well and if he played for the Cowboys he would be effective but to me he is overrated.. Kind of hope he does play actually.

So to answer your question directly.. I like the Cards play with or without Jackson in the game..

The Lenard Little injury and to a lesser extent Adam Carriker are much more important IMO from a capping standpoint.. If you have to blitz Warner to get pressure, you are in trouble.. Look at the numbers above..

GL today bro..:cheers:
 
Hey T, good morning, what a mess yesterday for me! 13-13 +110!?!?!? Anyway, just getting up and looking over the card quickly before I run out for breakfast. Any thoughts on the Dolphins or Minny? Looking into AZ myself, need a good day today. Check back in later with ya.
 
Mags said:
Hey T, good morning, what a mess yesterday for me! 13-13 +110!?!?!? Anyway, just getting up and looking over the card quickly before I run out for breakfast. Any thoughts on the Dolphins or Minny? Looking into AZ myself, need a good day today. Check back in later with ya.
Click to expand...

Stole this from Sammy's thread:

The Broncos have been consistently strong coming out of the open date, going 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS since '92. I also think this is a strong situational play, with Denver getting embarrassed last time out on MNF and the Fins blowing their fish load against the Bills last week.

If I can get the Broncos to 3 at a decent price, I will add them.. Right now the price is too steep.. Tough to tell which way it is going.

Minny, check game day actives for the Vikings.. May have a suspension or two on defense.. Digging it up now.. 5 is a tough number and Houston will score... Actually lean slightly towards the Texans there..

GL today..


 
GL today Tee,

Broncos is definitely a play for me today, but what are your thoughts on GB/Ten? I think GB has a great chance of beating this rolling Tennessee team, but I'm concerned about the injuries on defense.

Thanks
 
Tee

Minny will have Kevin and Pat Williams playing today. We also get Madiue Williams at safety. This game is a make or break for the season. We will lose both kevin and pat next week. The week off gave alot of guys some rest Peterson got to rest his sore hammy, Berrien got to rest his knee. Both needed it. Peterson has not been 100% all year, he has not been hitting holes at the speed he was last year. This is also a make or break game for Childress. He needs this game, if he loses that puts at 3-5 and get GB next week at the dome. Childress has been on the hot seat all year. Sharper doesn't have an interception yet this year, and he was quoted in the paper saying he would be more aggresive this week.

I don't like this line, I honestly give us a 50/50 chance of winning this game. Houston put together a good defensive effort last week. They will probably stack the box, and make gus beat us.
 
tee*dub said:
Stole this from Sammy's thread:

The Broncos have been consistently strong coming out of the open date, going 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS since '92. I also think this is a strong situational play, with Denver getting embarrassed last time out on MNF and the Fins blowing their fish load against the Bills last week.

If I can get the Broncos to 3 at a decent price, I will add them.. Right now the price is too steep.. Tough to tell which way it is going.

Minny, check game day actives for the Vikings.. May have a suspension or two on defense.. Digging it up now.. 5 is a tough number and Houston will score... Actually lean slightly towards the Texans there..

GL today..
Click to expand...
T - thanks bro, running out but really liking AZ, HOU, ATL and NE after doing some more work. Obviously you agree with AZ and it sounds like you may lean HOU...thoughts on ATL or NE at all? Back in a little bit, thanks bro and BOL to you as well! :cheers:
 
Ca$He said:
GL today Tee,

Broncos is definitely a play for me today, but what are your thoughts on GB/Ten? I think GB has a great chance of beating this rolling Tennessee team, but I'm concerned about the injuries on defense.

Thanks
Click to expand...

situationally a good time to back GB but they could get rolled.. No play there for me..
 
They will probably stack the box, and make gus beat us.
Click to expand...

Have you seen Berrian's stat lines as of late.. Gus replaced Tavaris wk3.. Minny might be effective if Houston stacks the box.

<table id="pc" style="font-size: 7pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="pcStatHead"><td class="pcTanRight" style="padding: 2px;" width="100">WK</td><td class="pcTanRight" style="padding: 2px;" width="100"> OPP</td><td class="pcTanRight" style="padding: 2px;" align="right" width="100">REC</td><td class="pcTanRight" style="padding: 2px;" align="right" width="100">YDS</td><td class="pcTanRight" style="padding: 2px;" align="right" width="100">TD</td></tr><tr><td id="pcEven" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">1</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">@GB</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">3</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">38</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td></tr><tr><td id="pcOdd" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">2</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">Ind</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td></tr><tr><td id="pcEven" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">3</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">Car</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">3</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">79</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td></tr><tr><td id="pcOdd" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">4</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">@Ten</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">5</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">78</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">0</td></tr><tr><td id="pcEven" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">5</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">@NO</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">6</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">110</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">1</td></tr><tr><td id="pcOdd" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">6</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">Det</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">5</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">131</td><td id="pcOdd" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">1</td></tr><tr><td id="pcEven" style="border-right: 1px solid rgb(255, 255, 255); padding: 1px 1px 1px 5px;">7</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em;">@Chi</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">6</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">81</td><td id="pcEven" class="pcRight" style="padding: 0.15em 0.2em 0.15em 0.5em; text-align: right;">1

</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
I can't figure that Arizona game out... got too many things that have me leaning both ways.. hehe...

gl today and I hope you hit it...

btw... I'm liking Denver as well and will more than likely be on em'.
 
Mags said:
T - thanks bro, running out but really liking AZ, HOU, ATL and NE after doing some more work. Obviously you agree with AZ and it sounds like you may lean HOU...thoughts on ATL or NE at all? Back in a little bit, thanks bro and BOL to you as well! :cheers:
Click to expand...

NE lost its last road game by 20 points and Indy looks to be geting better, return of Adai and Sanders psychologically will be big.. At home in primetime? I like NE a bit with the points but think the right move is to tease colts down to a pick and find a partner..

My tease partner candidates this week:


Colts down
eagles down
cowboys up
jags down
bucs down

always a sucker in the group.. Opinions on which one it is this week? Probably Cowboys.. They could get rolled.. Eagles losing SU at Seattle? perhaps...
 
bumping Ariz up to top unit (6)... About as good as I see a play so rolling with it.. had to pay 120 for the 3 on the last two units

add:

ariz -3, -120, 2 units
 
Champ Bailey is out for Denver and running back questions also- Perhaps an over there, Denver will score and get scored on also-

Any thoughts on Cleveland? Think they can beat Balty?
 
Seeing a lot for St Louis on the net except for you, but no one gives any reasoning other than a home doggie. I tend to think that Arizona wins this game because they are better, when you play vs Warner and Fitzgerald and Boldin, you have to play your A game. I think they will do enough in this game to win. The only concern is the bad play on the road for Arizona, but in reality they should win one to prove they are for real.
Also I think St Louis caught Washington sleeping- Beat a depleted dallas team, and played well vs New england but lost by 7 points. People are overreacting to ST Louis, Warner has good number, wicked receivers, and the Rams with Bulger can be beat, they have lost quite a bit and people are forgetting that this is a team with a losing culture and not a top tier team.
A key TEE will be if Zona has a corner that can cover AVERY, as Bulger is hitting those 1 play long bomb Td's to him in the dallas and pats games, because they had no fast corners.
 
tee*dub said:
gametime decision whether he plays and he got very limited reps in practice all week.. Thigh injury.. My thing-- i would be suprised if he plays and if he does play I would be very surprised if he makes an impact..

This is just me--but for gambling purposes the Rams are one of the teams I follow intimately, see every snap of every game etc.. Even a healthy Jackson is extremely over rated IMO.. I don't like the "skip at the line looking for a hole" bullshit and he is surprisingly ineffective in short yardage.. Ya he is big and moves well and if he played for the Cowboys he would be effective but to me he is overrated.. Kind of hope he does play actually.

So to answer your question directly.. I like the Cards play with or without Jackson in the game..

The Lenard Little injury and to a lesser extent Adam Carriker are much more important IMO from a capping standpoint.. If you have to blitz Warner to get pressure, you are in trouble.. Look at the numbers above..

GL today bro..:cheers:
Click to expand...

thanks tee. i'm in, agree it is one of the stronger looking spots on the board along with denver in the later games. really liked indy and i see you have the pats on your leans...looking forward to seeing where you land and why. much respect for your skill and discipline tee....now let's cash this shit!!
 
GL tee, rams are going to have a tough day trying to stop very athletic receivers and a veteran QB who's playing like hes 20
 
Tee the reason you cant blitz warner is because of 2 reasons--

He is very fast with his release and knows where to throw the ball-

Also his 2 receivers Fitzgerald and Boldin are like NBA players, they have hands and positioning on jump balls. When they run a slant they are way too big and sure handed- Only way to cover those guys is to zone them or double them- Fitzgerald by the way is the best talent in the history of the NFL in the red zone, watch the fades they throw to this guy, he could be in the NBA with his jumping and hand eye coordination.
i see this as the key to winning this bet, ZONA receivers will make big plays in the red zone today and win it sfor us.

Lets cash this one as I expect the entire internet to have a L on this game-

Tee also what you think of Denver, Cleveland and Green Bay, the public has hit those 3 teams hard, wondering if you dont take Miami, Balty and Tenny and get a 2-1 for sure as the public movement lines lose on game day?
 
Tee a group of buddies of mine are over watching the game with me, they would like to thank you for all of your hard work and good insight and picks--

 
that it for the early games.. Looking to get involved in a couple others at HT..:shake:
 
Another factor TEE is that in the Rams recent resurrgence they played vs Campbell, Blowjob Johnson and Cassel-- All 3 of these qb's hold on to the ball a long time-
Warner gets rid of the ball quicker and with their physical receivers , I think the rams cannot pin their ears back as u said. Also will be less sacks and that split second that warner throws the ball quicker than Blowjob, Cassell, and Campbell. I think the Rams come back to earth and they play a much better QB today--

I heard we are out both of our tight ends, POPE and campbell are out!
 
Great info in this thread...usually stick to CFB & NBA but going to roll with some of the Big Boys with direction from the CTG NFL Forum...GL all.

Mully :cheers:
 
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