smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 20-14 +9.32
Sides: 7-6 -0.4
Totals: 5-3 +2.39
Teaser: 2-2 +2.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 2-0 +2.10
Half 3-1 +1.38
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 0-0
Week 6 had ONE MAC play:
FADE NEW ENGLAND (+44) and play on COLTS +7.5 or better
Pittsburgh, Miami, and SF were all considerations, but Pitt and SF had covered week 5, and Miami was off a bye. Had you played those, you went 2-1.
Week 7 MAC:
No MAC plays in week 7, but here are some nuggets from the MAC chart:
Plays
Carry over:
3T USC +4, NYJ +17.5, STL +3.5 (risking 6 to win 5)
CHIEFS -3, +105 (1.25) and UNDER 43.5 (1.25)
My Line: KC -4 and 40
This bet is more AGAINST Pitt then on KC. My numbers are pointing to a “sell” sign on Pittsburgh, and Landry Jones at QB only makes that stronger. His numbers from last week were a mirage, and with a week to prepare, I think KC’s defense makes him look bad. KC is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in yards per rush allowed, and should be able to hold Bell somewhat in check.
The UNDER is a natural fit as KC’s offense is terrible, and I don’t expect much from Pitt. I have KC winning, and a 17-13 final fits – as does 21-17.
DALLAS +3, +105 (1.25) and DALLAS +145 (.25) and UNDER 45.5 (1.25)
My line: Ny -2 42
I think we see a MUCH improved Dallas D this week. After sacking Brady 5 times in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half two weeks back, the bye week is a big help. The signing of Cassel is a small upgrade at QB. Dallas off a bye, plenty of time to prepare, Giants off MNF less time to prepare, normally not a big deal with divisional games, BUT I think this Dallas D is that much different than the one the Giants saw in week 1.
OAKLAND +3.5 (1.25) and OAKLAND +160 (.25)
My line: SD -2.5 45
SD’s is really bad in two of the indicators I use to measure a team: PTS/Play and PTS/100 yds.
PTS/Play –Offense: SD 0.3 – 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/Play – Defense: SD 0.505 – 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/100 yds –Offense: SD 4.77 – 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/100 yds – Defense: SD 7.66 – 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL
Oakland off a bye, so extra week to prepare. To me, that’s a big deal when dealing with a young team.
Leans:
Rams
Bucs
Texans
:shake:
Sides: 7-6 -0.4
Totals: 5-3 +2.39
Teaser: 2-2 +2.00
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 2-0 +2.10
Half 3-1 +1.38
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 3-0 +3.00
MAC Play On
Overall 0-0
Week 6 had ONE MAC play:
FADE NEW ENGLAND (+44) and play on COLTS +7.5 or better
Pittsburgh, Miami, and SF were all considerations, but Pitt and SF had covered week 5, and Miami was off a bye. Had you played those, you went 2-1.
Week 7 MAC:
No MAC plays in week 7, but here are some nuggets from the MAC chart:
- Current Range: AZ +59 – JAX -38
- AZ (+59), Cincy (+46), NY (+43.5), NE (+42), and Pitt (+38) make up the top 5 market beaters to date.
- Jax (-38), KC (-33,5), Balt (-33), Det (-30.5), and Hou (-27) make up the top 5 market underperformers to date.
- Cincy is the only team that is undefeated ATS (5-0-1), and the markets still seem to be lagging as the Bengals have beaten the closing number by 2 scores in their last two games. Next weeks game against Pitt will be interesting.
- Pitt, who plays this week is +26 since Big Ben went down (pushed week 4). Last week, there was buy signal on Pitt, but the +18 MAC, may have turned it into them into a sell spot already.
- The Ravens are the only team w/out an ATS win (0-5-1), however, their worst MAC performance was -9.5 in wk 5 (33-30 home to Cle).
- The biggest mover from Week 6 to Week 7 in the MAC standings is MIAMi, who went from a -42 in week 6 to a -11 in week 7.
- GB (+22.5) MAC, suffered their first ATS loss last week, and has been within a TD or less of the closing number every week.
- KC has lost 5 straight ATS, posting a -40.5 over that period, BUT are trending in right direction posting MAC’s of -11.5, -11, and -3 L3 – buy signal emerging.
- NYG has the strongest SELL signal, posting MACs of +20.5, -4 , and -17 L3.
Plays
Carry over:
3T USC +4, NYJ +17.5, STL +3.5 (risking 6 to win 5)
CHIEFS -3, +105 (1.25) and UNDER 43.5 (1.25)
My Line: KC -4 and 40
This bet is more AGAINST Pitt then on KC. My numbers are pointing to a “sell” sign on Pittsburgh, and Landry Jones at QB only makes that stronger. His numbers from last week were a mirage, and with a week to prepare, I think KC’s defense makes him look bad. KC is 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in yards per rush allowed, and should be able to hold Bell somewhat in check.
The UNDER is a natural fit as KC’s offense is terrible, and I don’t expect much from Pitt. I have KC winning, and a 17-13 final fits – as does 21-17.
DALLAS +3, +105 (1.25) and DALLAS +145 (.25) and UNDER 45.5 (1.25)
My line: Ny -2 42
I think we see a MUCH improved Dallas D this week. After sacking Brady 5 times in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half two weeks back, the bye week is a big help. The signing of Cassel is a small upgrade at QB. Dallas off a bye, plenty of time to prepare, Giants off MNF less time to prepare, normally not a big deal with divisional games, BUT I think this Dallas D is that much different than the one the Giants saw in week 1.
OAKLAND +3.5 (1.25) and OAKLAND +160 (.25)
My line: SD -2.5 45
SD’s is really bad in two of the indicators I use to measure a team: PTS/Play and PTS/100 yds.
PTS/Play –Offense: SD 0.3 – 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/Play – Defense: SD 0.505 – 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/100 yds –Offense: SD 4.77 – 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL
PTS/100 yds – Defense: SD 7.66 – 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL
Oakland off a bye, so extra week to prepare. To me, that’s a big deal when dealing with a young team.
Leans:
Rams
Bucs
Texans
:shake:
