Complete Card
Den @ Cle: My # Den -4, 40 
osted: Den -4 42.5
Denver is 5-0 this year and 4-1 ATS, but have only outperformed the market by +24 (Consider AZ who is 4-1 ATS, but has outperformed the market by +77). Denver had no business winning last week, but they have the league’s best defense. Cleveland has popped up on the public radar going 3-1 ATS L4, with a +13.5 MAC. However, they have done with an offense that I don’t believe is sustainable. Cleveland’s defense has been terrible this year: 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league in defensive pass/play, 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in defense yards per minute poss. Missing Haden and Gipsun this week, doesn’t help.
PASS
Cin @ Buf: My # Cincy -1.5 41: Posted Cin -3 42.5
My Play: BUFFALO +3, -105 (1) and BUFFALO +145 (.75)
My favorite play of the week. Great spot to fade Cincy. Cincy off a home win against Seattle, after rallying from 17 pts down. Cincy can say what they want, that was a measuring stick game. Next week they are @ Pittsburgh. In between, a trip to cold ass Buffalo. Buffalo got a small downgrade with Manuel playing, but nothing too significant. Nice sandwich spot, with a capable home team. Sign me up.
KC@Min: My # Min -3 40 : Posted Min 3 43
My Play:
UNDER 43.5 (1.25) and CHIEFS +165 (1)
Would have risked more of the BR on the UNDER here, had I been able to find a 44. That is now a pipe-dream, and my prediction is a close of 42. I don’t see where the offense is going to come from. KC lost their lone playmaker last week when Charles went down (Kelce gets a downgrade w/out Charles). KC’s passing attack reminds me of high school football in the 90’s, although the #’s aren’t as bad as I expected: 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/play, 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in yds/play, 13[SUP]th[/SUP] Pts/Min Poss. What’s killing them is that they are 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in sacks allowed. As bad as the KC offensive metrics are, Minny has been worse:
20[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/play
24[SUP]th[/SUP] in yds/play
24[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts/ min poss
30[SUP]th[/SUP] in yds/ min poss
31[SUP]st[/SUP] in yds/pass
Bottom line is we have two teams that play it close to the vest on offense. The Chiefs bet due to the level of completion KC has faced, and the fact that markets are down on them (MAC -37.5 L4).
Last 4:
Vs Den L -10 MAC
@ GB L -5 MAC
@ Cincy L -12 MAC
VS Chi L -11 MAC
Just two weeks ago, I had KC at +4 in my PR. Currently they sit at -0.5. As we say at the track, “this is a bounce back race.”
Hou @ Jax: My # Jax -1.5 44 : posted Jax -1 43
Leans: JAX -1.5 and OVER 43
Hou may have found an identity on offense with the naming of Hoyer at QB. I expect them to play a bit more uptempo, but it’s Brian Hoyer, so there’s that.
Is it possible that Jacksonville has regressed in year 3 under coach Bradley? I don’t think so, as the offensive line is starting to develop some talent with an interior of Beadles, Wisniewski, and Linder. Yeldon carries an Avg Starter grade. The WR’s, Hurns and Robinson are playing at an above avg clip, per PFF. The record says 1-4, but this team played 3 straight road games, and 3of their 5 games were against Carolina, Indy (sans Luck – bad loss), and New England. Houston is a drop in class, and is the first challenge up on a two game home stand. The individual talent of Jax grades out better than Hou, and better than in years past, but collectively, they posted below average metrics on offense and defense. I lean Jax, but want to see them prove something first.
PASS
Chi @ Det : My # Det -4 44 : posted Det -3 44
The early number on this one was Det -6.5. Detroit played Denver, Seattle, and Arizona the last three weeks – three of the best defenses in the NFL. This likely is a contributor to Detroit’s offensive struggles. The Bears are a big drop in class defensively, but the fact that Fox has been able to garner 2 wins out of this club is pretty impressive. Consider they have been outscored 142-86 this year. Over their last 4 they are 2-2 ATS, covering two straight (+15 MAC). Consider that Chicago started the season GB, AZ, and Seattle, and their MAC of -35 over that period isn’t that bad, in fact, throw out the -23 they laid against AZ in which they were picked twice, sacked twice, and committed 14 penalties for 140 yards, and an argument can be made that CHI has outperformed market expectations greater than what their season MAC of -20 would have you believe. Both teams suck. Gun to head: CHICAGO ML, since there is no gun I will
PASS.
Was @ NyJ: My # NyJ -7 41 : Posted Nyj -7 40.5
My play:
USE NY in a 2 team tease to cross 7,6,4,3
Washington was a MAC play last week against ATL, a game they lost in OT. Looking at Wash outside of their stats, the most confounding thing is their lack a defining virtue on offense, which falls on coach Jay Gruden. Coach Gruden is near the bottom of my list of NFL coaches because, well, he stinks at his job. Kirk Cousins enters the contest w/ the highest INT rate for any QB having 400+ attempts. Washington will be without 2 O-linemen, including all-pro Trent Williams, in addition to missing 3 DB’s, and of course MeSean. Wash has made the most of what they have up till now, but the injuries hurt. They have cobbled together a +13 MAC on the year, outperforming the markets, but after 2 straight covers, and a 4 game MAC of +16, I believe they are now overvalued in the markets.
The Jets, have made a steady rise in my PR since the start of the season, and given that their YTD MAC is +36.5, it appears I’m not alone. The bulk of that number was buily on week 1 (+17.5) vs Cle and week 2, +19 against INDY. Week 3, saw a -10 vs Philly and two weeks ago they posted a +10 vs Miami across the pond. Coming off the bye, I like NY to win SU. I’m going to look to use
NY in a two team tease.
Az @ Pitt: My # Az -4 44 : Posted Az -3.5 44.5
Lean Pittsburgh at +4 or better
It’s impossible to make a case against AZ, so I’m not even going to try. Az has destroyed the markets this year, posting a +77 MAC. However, my system picked the right spot for their only loss on the season both ATS and SU, when they fell in week 4 to STL. Last week’s +20 MAC and destruction of Detroit, puts AZ at +67 in their last 4. They are the only team in the league this season to outperform the market price by 3 or more scores, 3 or more times. The angle of playing against a team traveling West to East on B2B games is voided due to Az posting up a some swanky resort outside Pittsburgh this past week (I was also shocked to learn that such a place existed outside Pittsburgh). This game was close to being a MAC fade against AZ, except Pittsburgh covered last week, and posted a +8 MAC.
Pitt had a nice win on MNF in SD, and now travel back East on short rest, which will only further impede the possibility of an improvement from Mike Vick. Mike has been downright terrible. Vick has posted a PFF grade of 50.1, 41[SUP]st[/SUP] amongst QB’s. Still, the Pitt lean stems from the SD/IO metric. Az in their last 4 has posted a pedestrian “3”, while Pitt has posted a “11” over the same time frame, led by an impressive 14 sacks in their last 4. STL forced 3 turnovers in their win over AZ, and they did it with the pass rush. Note Mike Iupati is listed as doubtful. PFF ranks Iupati as the 16[SUP]th[/SUP] best guard in the NFL, w/ an overall grade of 82.3. His backup, Earl Watford scores a 66.4 overall, but even more alarming is his 35.9 PASS block grade, which is horrible.
I may end up with a Steelers ticket on Sunday if the price is right.
Miami @ Tenny: My # Tenny -3 44 : Posted Tenny -1.5 43.5
My Play:
TITANS -1 (2)*best bet of the week
Miami off a bye with a new coach and boatload of changes since we last saw them. Dan Campbell has come in and has looked to put his stamp on this team ASAP. Along w/ running the antiqued “Oklahoma Drill”, Campbell jettisoned the DC for a guy that has never been a DC in Lou Anarumo, who as of Friday morning, the coaching staff still hadn’t decided where new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will be located during games, but Campbell said Anarumo will likely coach from the field. In addition, we have these nuggets:
“I would say probably like Day 2 [or] 3 I was like, ‘OK, what just happened here? What have I just gotten into?’ ” Campbell said. “I remember at one point everything just hit me at once.”
Campbell eventually got his bearings and focused on the task at hand.
But Sunday — his first game as a head coach — will be another shock to the system.
What’s his biggest concern on the sideline Sunday against the Titans?
“Not throwing up on my shoes,” Campbell joked.
Campbell may have been joking on the outside, but on the inside, how can he feel comfortable? There is a reshuffling of the offensive line, and while Brendan Albert and Brent Grimes are expected to play, neither is 100%.
What about the theory of backing a new coach in his first game, based on the guys wanting to get the coach a win? In the NBA, I blind bet, in the NFL? Here is the reality:
FIRST GAME FOLLOWING A HC FIRING (NFL) SINCE 1995:
All weeks: 8-18 SU
All weeks: 11-14-1 ATS
Week 8 or prior to: 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS
While Miami is in flux, Tenny has a chance to really establish their identity. This will be the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] game of a 4 game home stand, of which they are 0-2 SU, but should be 2-0. A 35-33 loss to Indy, and a 14-13 loss to Buffalo last week hurt, but being at home has allowed for a stable weekly routine, going on a month now (Tenny was on a bye week 4). I believe the time is right for Tennessee to get a win.
TITANS ARE MY PLAY.
Car @ Sea: My # Sea -7 40 : Posted Sea -7 40
Lean Sea as teaser partner for NYJ
No score 1[SUP]st[/SUP] 6.5 mins
My number is dead on w/ the market. Possible teaser partner with Seattle to NyJ. Last year in the playoffs, I played the no score prop, it hit, and I believe it still applies, given that either club has changed philosophy.
Sd @GB : My # GB -10 51 : Posted Gb -10.5 50.5
Lean GB FIRST HALF
GB has outscored opponents 237-57 in the first half of Green Bay's last NINE home games. If form holds, GB and their league leading SD/IO rating of 16, including 18 sacks in their L4, could spell trouble for Rivers and SD. It makes sense that GB get’s out to a large lead, and allows for SD to cover the second half, but will they leave the backdoor open? Maybe. Consider that GB is 5-0 ATS, but have posted MAC scores of: 2, 7, 5, 7, 5. Something to consider. I would not discount the ‘over’ here as well. If GB does there thing in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half, I expect Phil to throw the ball 50 times…..will take a wait and see approach.
Balt @ SF: MY # Balt -1.5 45: Posted Balt -2 43
Two of the NFL’s largest market underperformers will meet in the Bay. Balt comes in with 0-4-1 ATS record and -25.5 MAC. SF enters with a -34.5 MAC, DESPITE a +20 performance in week 1, and last weeks +4.5 @ NYG. In between they posted a -19, -33, and -7. Both teams are way too inconsistent for me to bet any money on.
PASS.
INDY +9.5 (1.25) - MAC play
:shake:
