smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
Week 5
YTD: 2-8 -8.69
Off to my worst start to the NFL in 13 years! Hoping the MAC system, and the totals system I have been working on will get me going in the right direction.
Margin Against Close MAC REVIEW:
2015 saw MAC plays go 24-10 for 70% winners. 2014 MAC plays went 32-18 for 64%. System back testing over a 15 year span, showed the worst season at 57%.
MAC plays need 4 weeks of data to start, and history shows, that the plays are just as strong in the first two weeks, WHEN the proper handicapping is applied to account for the quirks of the first 4 weeks. For example, heading into week 5, SF sits at a +8 MAC, good for 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league. However, the number is skewed due to their week 1 +30.5 showing against Washington. Since that time, they have posted; -7.5, -9, and -6 performances. As such, SF’s adjusted MAC is -22.5, good for 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league.
This week comes with 2 plays, one with an *, and a near miss. After 4 weeks of action, The Eagles are atop the MAC standings with a +67.5 (MAC), but since they were on a bye week last week, they do qualify for the system this week. Still, I would look to back DET, and I’m hoping for a game results that keeps Philly’s number in fade territory. Even though they do not qualify, I will be watching the money line as we get closer to kickoff for a possible Detroit play.. The Eagles have produced MACS of +15, +18, and +34.5 (vs Pitt). Of Note is the +15 came against Cleveland. NO OTHER TEAM has registered a MAC close to that against Cleveland. Since Philly, Cleveland has posted; a -1 ,+4, and -3. Their adjusted MAC is 0, good for 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league!
MAC Play-Ons: TAMPA +4.5 or better (1)
Tampa owns a MAC of -41.5, going 1-3 SU and ATS in weeks 1-4. That week 1 win @ ATL and +9.5 MAC performance seems like years ago. Since that time they have posted a -26 (@ AZ), -8.5 (vs LA), and -16.5 ( vs Den). Tampa will be facing the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] poorest MAC team in the league in Carolina. Carolina has -31.5 MAC, and will be starting Derek Anderson. Still, I think waiting closer to game time is the way to go, as the Carolina remains a very public team.
MAC Play-Against: DENVER -4* (.75) (PLAY ON ATLANTA +4)
Denver enters week 5 with a +44 MAC. However, the Denver team on Sunday, will be missing the QB that got them to this spot, and in his place will be a rookie making his first NFL start. Atlanta (the play on team), sits 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league w/ a +35 MAC, but has problems of their own; namely a decimated line-backing corp. Take a look at that injury report! Denver fits the MAC model, but the circumstances have me treading lighter on this one.
Bet’s I’ve made:
Ten/Mia UNDER 43.5 (1.25)
My totals system has a strong lean to the under for both teams, equally roughly a TD less, then each teams predicted output.
Be back tomorrow.
:shake2:
YTD: 2-8 -8.69
Off to my worst start to the NFL in 13 years! Hoping the MAC system, and the totals system I have been working on will get me going in the right direction.
Margin Against Close MAC REVIEW:
2015 saw MAC plays go 24-10 for 70% winners. 2014 MAC plays went 32-18 for 64%. System back testing over a 15 year span, showed the worst season at 57%.
MAC plays need 4 weeks of data to start, and history shows, that the plays are just as strong in the first two weeks, WHEN the proper handicapping is applied to account for the quirks of the first 4 weeks. For example, heading into week 5, SF sits at a +8 MAC, good for 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league. However, the number is skewed due to their week 1 +30.5 showing against Washington. Since that time, they have posted; -7.5, -9, and -6 performances. As such, SF’s adjusted MAC is -22.5, good for 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league.
This week comes with 2 plays, one with an *, and a near miss. After 4 weeks of action, The Eagles are atop the MAC standings with a +67.5 (MAC), but since they were on a bye week last week, they do qualify for the system this week. Still, I would look to back DET, and I’m hoping for a game results that keeps Philly’s number in fade territory. Even though they do not qualify, I will be watching the money line as we get closer to kickoff for a possible Detroit play.. The Eagles have produced MACS of +15, +18, and +34.5 (vs Pitt). Of Note is the +15 came against Cleveland. NO OTHER TEAM has registered a MAC close to that against Cleveland. Since Philly, Cleveland has posted; a -1 ,+4, and -3. Their adjusted MAC is 0, good for 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league!
MAC Play-Ons: TAMPA +4.5 or better (1)
Tampa owns a MAC of -41.5, going 1-3 SU and ATS in weeks 1-4. That week 1 win @ ATL and +9.5 MAC performance seems like years ago. Since that time they have posted a -26 (@ AZ), -8.5 (vs LA), and -16.5 ( vs Den). Tampa will be facing the 31[SUP]st[/SUP] poorest MAC team in the league in Carolina. Carolina has -31.5 MAC, and will be starting Derek Anderson. Still, I think waiting closer to game time is the way to go, as the Carolina remains a very public team.
MAC Play-Against: DENVER -4* (.75) (PLAY ON ATLANTA +4)
Denver enters week 5 with a +44 MAC. However, the Denver team on Sunday, will be missing the QB that got them to this spot, and in his place will be a rookie making his first NFL start. Atlanta (the play on team), sits 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league w/ a +35 MAC, but has problems of their own; namely a decimated line-backing corp. Take a look at that injury report! Denver fits the MAC model, but the circumstances have me treading lighter on this one.
Bet’s I’ve made:
Ten/Mia UNDER 43.5 (1.25)
My totals system has a strong lean to the under for both teams, equally roughly a TD less, then each teams predicted output.
Be back tomorrow.
:shake2:
