Nfl week 4 discussion

J

JonStarks

Pretty much a regular
I am not one to ever start threads, but I am curious what everyone is thinking this weekend, so I figured I'd take the bullet.

I was on target with Seattle and Philly last weekend, but missed on Balty. The Ravens had about 30 chances to win that game in the 2nd half, but their defense is horrendous.

For this weekend...

Denver -6.5... Denver's defense looks legit. Going to be tough to score points against. Lets face it, Teddy Bridgewater is not a good quarterback. He will never win a Super Bowl. AP looks like he is regaining form very quickly, but I expect Denver to stack the box and force Bridgewater to beat them. To put it bluntly, Bridgewater can't beat them. Denver will score at home, Vikings will have to abandon the run at some point and throw to keep up. They can't, that is not their style. Minny is good at home when they can establish the run and control the tempo. They won't have that opportunity in Denver. I see Denver winning this game something like 31-13.

Nothing else really gets my juices flowing. I kinda like Atlanta at -6.5. Generally a good home team that can put up points. I don't think Mallet is good, and I don't see him being able to keep up the scoring. Tampa Bay +3.5 at home looks good to me. I am just not a believer in Carolina. Solid defense, Cam is playing well, but Stewart and Tolbert? Give me a break. I think this is a game Tampa can certainly win, so getting +3.5 is a big advantage in my opinion. Last one I think looks good is Dallas +3.5. New Orleans sucks. They can beat Dallas at home, but Dallas can also beat them, and I think this game ends up being very close. Dallas D has to step up after that dreadful performance last game. I expect this to be a very tight game, so getting 3.5 looks good to me.
 
Hey JonStarks...good idea for a week #4 thread. I'm not a moderator and hope your thread takes off -- i like hearing other's thoughts on the games. But, many might just post in the "What have we learned after week 3" thread.

But, I will give my thoughts on the games, as of now.

I like TB Bucs, but may not get involved b/c of their kicker. I watched a lot of the game last week and TB would have won, but for the missed fgs. While he made 1 long fg, he missed 3 (as I recall) relatively short fgs...and missed them badly. It changed the whole game. I have not read-up on the game, have they replaced him? Are they looking for a new kicker? Literally, he was that bad and the misses were horrible.

I lean toward Atl too. The only reason I may stay away is b/c they may have a let down from last week. I've watched most all Texans' games and I see no way they beat Atl...but this is NFL. Still, it will be Atl or nothing for me.....from what I read in Houston yesterday, it does not appear A. Foster will be back, but it was still possible. Texans' offense is in a word 'inept'. I'm thinking about an Atl 2H wager already...depending on 1H score.
 
Denver D is really good, but the offense has been horrible, one of the bottom ones. They are lucky to be 3-0...too many points to be giving, imo. But I also not ready to back Teddy in mile hi against that D.


I like the SD tt over...against that Clev D and back at home. But SD's o-line has a lot of injuries and ?'s for Sunday. If they can't go, no thanks

Bears, by trading pieces away, know the season is over, and it def sends that message to the players...have to look at the Raiders or TT over or game over. That Raider O is legit and Bears D is non-existant

I like Zona and Atlanta, big favs...but may tease Atl. Like Zona more. The argument against Zona is they have played bad teams. Rams are a bad team too, not like they have stepped up in competition, and Zona proving they can spank bad teams.

I like Cincy a little. KC offense is still poor, and Cincy is rolling.

I like the Jets, but have to see about injuries to Ivory and o-line. Miami has just not been good, on either side of the ball.

Bills and Over too. Giants might have won last week, but masked by being up against a really poor team. TTaylor will have a field day. Hoping Watkins can go. Eli may crap his pants on Sunday...
 
bones said:
Hey JonStarks...good idea for a week #4 thread. I'm not a moderator and hope your thread takes off -- i like hearing other's thoughts on the games. But, many might just post in the "What have we learned after week 3" thread.

But, I will give my thoughts on the games, as of now.

I like TB Bucs, but may not get involved b/c of their kicker. I watched a lot of the game last week and TB would have won, but for the missed fgs. While he made 1 long fg, he missed 3 (as I recall) relatively short fgs...and missed them badly. It changed the whole game. I have not read-up on the game, have they replaced him? Are they looking for a new kicker? Literally, he was that bad and the misses were horrible.

I lean toward Atl too. The only reason I may stay away is b/c they may have a let down from last week. I've watched most all Texans' games and I see no way they beat Atl...but this is NFL. Still, it will be Atl or nothing for me.....from what I read in Houston yesterday, it does not appear A. Foster will be back, but it was still possible. Texans' offense is in a word 'inept'. I'm thinking about an Atl 2H wager already...depending on 1H score.
Click to expand...

That kicker for the Bucs was fucking terrible. Anyone who had money on Tampa + the points got absolutely screwed. They should have easily covered, or even won the game outright.
 
you were being serious about peyton not being good because it's not primetime? There's such a big over reaction, but moving to the shot gun is what Peyton is more comfortable with and it showed on sunday...it wasn't just cause it was primetime...

i honestly thought you were trolling those in the camp that believe he's only good during primetime; he's old but i'd take over a lot of the QB's in this league currently.
 
He's much much better in primetime so that means he/the team isn't as good in non primetime games which means you aren't getting the best of them in non primetime games. I never said he's only good in primetime games.


And I think Peyton's just has stronger leadership/focus in those games.... not that he is physically better or anything like that. Especially at that age you can't give 100% every week. Just the way it is.
 
Vick's best year statistically was 2010 with a 22 year old Shady McCoy, 22 year old Jeremy Maclin and 24 year old Desean Jackson as teammates, along with Jason Avant and Brent Celek. Vick was 30 at the time. He completed 62.6% with 21 tds and 6 ints for a passer rating of 100.2 in 12 starts. He did fumble 11 times.

I'd say that group was comparable talent wise.

Of course, he had the same group the next year at age 31 and completed 59.8% with 18 tds and 14 ints for a passer rating of 84.9 in 13 starts. And another 10 fumbles.

He's 35 now.
 
Injuries....



Steelers Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger -- Knee

Another week, another starting quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger left the Edward Jones Dome on crutches after his knee was injured on a low hit from Rams safety Mark Barron. (Mike Pereira later opined that Barron should have been penalized for the tackle.) Roethlisberger will reportedly miss around four to six weeks with the resultant MCL sprain and bone bruise, placing his return close to Week 8's potentially crucial divisional game against Cincinnati. Michael Vick will start in Roethlisberger's stead, with Landry Jones as Vick's backup.
Seahawks Halfback Marshawn Lynch -- Back/Hamstring/Calf?

A surprise non-starter on Sunday, Marshawn Lynch was listed as questionable on the injury report with a calf injury but spent much of the first quarter apparently having treatment on his back. When he did eventually enter the game, he quickly left with a reported hamstring problem. Whatever the injury or injuries, Lynch's lack of participation was a surprise, but with Chicago presenting limited resistance the Seahawks may simply have been playing cautious with their iconic tailback. Whatever their reasoning, Lynch is not widely expected to miss any further game action.
Bills Receiver Sammy Watkins -- Calf

Sammy Watkins left Sunday's blowout win in Miami with a calf injury, later identified as a mild sprain. Watkins is reportedly "day-to-day," with his status for next weekend dependent upon his ability to push off on the injured leg.
49ers Tight End Vernon Davis -- Knee

Though he left Sunday's blowout loss to Arizona with a knee injury, Vernon Davis is not expected to miss any games.
Panthers Defensive End Charles Johnson -- Hamstring

Charles Johnson is expected to miss several weeks after aggravating an existing hamstring injury against the Saints, according to the Charlotte Observer.
Jaguars Receiver Marqise Lee -- Hamstring

Marqise Lee claimed after leaving Sunday's blowout loss at New England that he could have stayed in the game if required, and most reports cite simply "tightness" in the receiver's hamstring. He is not expected to miss any games. Safeties Josh Evans and Sergio Brown also left Sunday's game, and no update is yet public on either.
Chargers Cornerback Jason Verrett -- Foot

Chargers Offensive Linemen -- Various

Already listed as questionable entering Sunday's game, Jason Verrett left the game with a suspected aggravation of the existing injury and did not return. Offensive linemen King Dunlap, Orlando Franklin, and Chris Watt also left the game, with Franklin reportedly unable to put weight on his right ankle and due to have a MRI scan today. Watt entered the game questionable with a groin injury, and did not return after halftime because of that injury. Dunlap left with concussion symptoms and enters the league protocol.
Jets Offensive Lineman Willie Colon -- Knee

Willie Colon suffered a sprained MCL and will miss at least a week, according to the team's official Twitter feed. The Jets play next week then have their bye, after which Colon should be fine to return though possibly with the aid of a brace. Tight end Jeff Cumberland, as noted below, enters the concussion protocol, while there is no news yet on the Eagles' Andrew Gardner and Chris Maragos.
Browns Linebacker Craig Robertson -- Ankle

Craig Robertson left Cleveland's defeat at home to Oakland with a left ankle sprain, which "might take some time" according to head coach Mike Pettine.
Texans Offensive Lineman Brandon Brooks -- Ankle

Brandon Brooks left Houston's win over Tampa Bay with an ankle injury, but is "very hopeful" that he will be able to play at Atlanta in Week 4.
Vikings Defensive End Justin Trattou -- Ankle

Minnesota lost a quartet of players on Sunday: Charles Johnson, Xavier Rhodes, Justin Trattou, and Andrew Sendejo all left the game with various injuries. Trattou left the stadium in a walking boot, but X-rays showed no broken bones. Johnson injured his ribs in the first quarter and, though he was able to return briefly, was removed from the game with that injury. Rhodes enters the league concussion protocol after a collision with Sendejo, who himself later left with a leg injury. No news is yet public on any of the injuries, other than the one to Rhodes.
Concussions

Among the more notable players who left their respective games with concussion symptoms were Chargers left tackle King Dunlap, Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme, Bears tackle Jermon Bushrod, and Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes. All of these players will enter the league protocol for concussions, and it is uncertain when they will be cleared to play.
 
JonStarks said:
Denver -6.5... Denver's defense looks legit. Going to be tough to score points against. Lets face it, Teddy Bridgewater is not a good quarterback. He will never win a Super Bowl. AP looks like he is regaining form very quickly, but I expect Denver to stack the box and force Bridgewater to beat them. To put it bluntly, Bridgewater can't beat them. Denver will score at home, Vikings will have to abandon the run at some point and throw to keep up. They can't, that is not their style. Minny is good at home when they can establish the run and control the tempo. They won't have that opportunity in Denver. I see Denver winning this game something like 31-13.
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I don't necessarily disagree with your side but not touching the game myself either way. I do somewhat disagree with some of your reasoning.

I think "stacking the box" is one of the most generalized & overused terms I've seen on this site. Merely stacking the box doesn't win games, it leaves a lot of 1 on 1 coverage that eventually any QB/WR combo will figure out. Even Bridgewater will be able to find some holes.

And why wouldn't a road team be able to establish a running game? A loud stadium seems more conducive to stopping a passing attack where more audibles will be called than a design run play.

Minnesota doesn't exactly have a huge home field advantage right now. They are playing outdoors in a temporary home field. Not exactly a dome that fucks with some outdoor teams.

Not trying to be a dick (although my girlfriend would argue that today) just pointing out some comments of yours that stood out to me.
 
gsro said:
you were being serious about peyton not being good because it's not primetime? There's such a big over reaction, but moving to the shot gun is what Peyton is more comfortable with and it showed on sunday...it wasn't just cause it was primetime...

i honestly thought you were trolling those in the camp that believe he's only good during primetime; he's old but i'd take over a lot of the QB's in this league currently.
Click to expand...

Completely agree with this post.
 
nbafan88 said:
Not a primetime game so you won't get the best of Peyton unfortunately. Don't like the spot
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think I need the best of Peyton in this game. Not even close. The worst of Peyton is still better than the best of Bridgewater.
 
Zeke said:
I don't necessarily disagree with your side but not touching the game myself either way. I do somewhat disagree with some of your reasoning.

I think "stacking the box" is one of the most generalized & overused terms I've seen on this site. Merely stacking the box doesn't win games, it leaves a lot of 1 on 1 coverage that eventually any QB/WR combo will figure out. Even Bridgewater will be able to find some holes.

And why wouldn't a road team be able to establish a running game? A loud stadium seems more conducive to stopping a passing attack where more audibles will be called than a design run play.

Minnesota doesn't exactly have a huge home field advantage right now. They are playing outdoors in a temporary home field. Not exactly a dome that fucks with some outdoor teams.

Not trying to be a dick (although my girlfriend would argue that today) just pointing out some comments of yours that stood out to me.
Click to expand...

Ok, sorry for using the phrase "stack the box." I believe Denver will use extra defenders to stop the running game and force Bridgewater to beat them.

I will also say that I don't believe Bridgewater can exploit 1 on 1 coverage in this game. Who is he going to throw the ball to? Mike Wallace? Their core of receivers is far below average. And Bridgewater isn't even a good passing quarterback himself. I think Denver's defense will do fine in 1 on 1 coverage. I think they'll welcome it.

I don't think Minny will be able to establish a running game because Denver's defense is really good. I also think that Minny will be playing from behind for most of the game, not the best environment to run the ball in. It has nothing to do with a loud stadium.

I don't think you are being a dick and I always enjoy a good debate.
 
Peyton is 27th in my QB rankings. His O-line also sucks. Very fortunate 3-0 team.

Most inflated spread of the week is in San Francisco.

0-3 teams (Ravens) playing away in Week 4 are 15-38 SU all-time (2-14 SU since 2009).

Have the Steez -6 v Balty using my 'Elo' rankings, Ben worth at least 5.5 points to the spread. So left with Steez -0.5
 
emkee said:
Peyton is 27th in my QB rankings. His O-line also sucks. Very fortunate 3-0 team.

Most inflated spread of the week is in San Francisco.

0-3 teams (Ravens) playing away in Week 4 are 15-38 SU all-time (2-14 SU since 2009).

Have the Steez -6 v Balty using my 'Elo' rankings, Ben worth at least 5.5 points to the spread. So left with Steez -0.5
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can you elaborate on SF? The team is a mess, they are playing the best QB in the game (arguably) and other than a week 1 game in which Minnesota shit the bed, they have looked like the worst team in the NFL. Please let me know why you think GB doesnt rout by 10+? Just because its a road game off a short week?
 
IMO Green Bay isn't very scary on the road and the packers have had two straight primetime games where they look awesome hence their line will be inflated. Just because it's inflated doesn't mean they won't cover, of course.


No way I can play the Ravens. The team is not good at all. I don't care that Vick is starting. The Ravens defense is disgusting and the steelers have the playmakers to pull off the victory. It's not like Vick can't throw a football now. He actually is part of a good organization now with leaders all throughout. Hopefully that makes a difference in his preparation and performance.

Note that the steelers love going for 2 points.... That could end up being huge with this spread
 
nbafan88 said:
IMO Green Bay isn't very scary on the road and the packers have had two straight primetime games where they look awesome hence their line will be inflated. Just because it's inflated doesn't mean they won't cover, of course.


No way I can play the Ravens. The team is not good at all. I don't care that Vick is starting. The Ravens defense is disgusting and the steelers have the playmakers to pull off the victory. It's not like Vick can't throw a football now. He actually is part of a good organization now with leaders all throughout. Hopefully that makes a difference in his preparation and performance.

Note that the steelers love going for 2 points.... That could end up being huge with this spread
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dude, he has been there since training camp.. lol yes vick can still throw it 80 yds in the air but come on. he hasnt won in a long long time
 
Can't trust the Steez trying to tailor/teach the offense to Ron Mexico on a short week either. Ron not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Ravens run defense has been good, pass defense not so much. Ron also can't pass.

Risky game on both sides.
 
dudleysdad said:
dude, he has been there since training camp.. lol yes vick can still throw it 80 yds in the air but come on. he hasnt won in a long long time
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Yes so? Does anyone really know his capabilities right now or we are just speculating? The balty defense can be had.
 
nbafan88 said:
Yes so? Does anyone really know his capabilities right now or we are just speculating? The balty defense can be had.
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Balty defense can be had but not sure if Vick is the guy to do it. Again, the Ravens run defense is not that bad.

Either way, the Steez defense hardly better.
 
D-Woww said:
can you elaborate on SF? The team is a mess, they are playing the best QB in the game (arguably) and other than a week 1 game in which Minnesota shit the bed, they have looked like the worst team in the NFL. Please let me know why you think GB doesnt rout by 10+? Just because its a road game off a short week?
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Niners just played back to back road games. 1st in a real bad situational spot, 2nd vs the best team in the league.

Now they're back home off consecutive 20+ point beatdowns. Is a noted 'respond' spot for any team.

GB at Lambeau is a beast, on the road they can be had.

In the NFL, no team is as bad or as good as they looked the week prior.

And is why HD's of 7 or more hit at a relatively consistent rate of just under 60%.

My 'Elo' spread for this game is Packers -4.
 
I actually agree with most every comment Emkee had made......and based on what he and others have said, I might as well get ready to pay on my Ravens selection.:egg: I did not like his 0-3 teams in week 4 away statistic at all but it is what it is.

We will see, but I think Ben is worth more than almost any player in the league for his team. I don't trust Vick, and its hard to make an argument that anyone should.

Harbaugh > Tomlin,
Flacco > Vick,
Baltimore's pass D may not be the best, but Vick cannot throw imo,
Teams Steelz beat (with Ben for most past) are combined 2-4, and Ravens lost to Broncos, Raiders & Bengals 8-1 who scored 84 total points to Ravens' 70. Just think that if Ravens get to 23 they cover.

But, good points you Steelers men made.

All said and done, I'm sticking with my selection. But, really enjoyed the comments. If I lose I will::tiphat:
 
cincy-4 1st play i made. team is a covering machine at home and imo this line is a solid 2 to 3 points short. kc secondary been getting torched and no matter how little i trust the ginger even bad dalton is as good as alex smith on his best days. lets call qb a wash even if i think dalton better, after that it no contest as i said last week and will continue to say, i dont think there a more talented roster in the league. no way cincy isnt 3 points better on a neutral field, the last several years ive started giving them 3.5 to 4 for their HF which seems to have been the right move. really see no reason this line isnt 7 and that exactly what i think bungals win by.

far as thu night goes there no way in holy hell i would lay points with the shit show occupying ravens jerseys. let alone lay them on the road to the better team regardless who qb'ing them. i rather have the shit qb with weapons catching the points than the sb winning qb with no help outside a 50 year old.. that said i hate thu night, havnt gotten 1 right and probably wont play it..
 
Have Cincy game lined at 5. KC pass protection is brutal, ranked dead last. Gonna be a long day for Smith.

2 worst QB's in the league right now are Krapernick (#32, QBR) and Alex Smith (#31, QBR).
 
emkee said:
Niners just played back to back road games. 1st in a real bad situational spot, 2nd vs the best team in the league.

Now they're back home off consecutive 20+ point beatdowns. Is a noted 'respond' spot for any team.

GB at Lambeau is a beast, on the road they can be had.

In the NFL, no team is as bad or as good as they looked the week prior.

And is why HD's of 7 or more hit at a relatively consistent rate of just under 60%.

My 'Elo' spread for this game is Packers -4.
Click to expand...

Packers -4 means that ud have GB -7 on a neutral? Cant buy into that. Still gonna parlay the ML instead of laying hte points though.

GB/SEA/SD/ARI ML parlay at +150 is my only play of the week. Tough card.
 
D-Woww said:
Packers -4 means that ud have GB -7 on a neutral? Cant buy into that. Still gonna parlay the ML instead of laying hte points though.

GB/SEA/SD/ARI ML parlay at +150 is my only play of the week. Tough card.
Click to expand...

Purely using 'Elo' for that spread, basically shows no bias. Rodgers is no more than a number. Compiled of scores, dates and locations over a massive period.

Use more as a predictor as opposed to an actual gambling tool.

My spread using more conventional methods is 6.5
 
emkee said:
Have Cincy game lined at 5. KC pass protection is brutal, ranked dead last. Gonna be a long day for Smith.

2 worst QB's in the league right now are Krapernick (#32, QBR) and Alex Smith (#31, QBR).
Click to expand...

the fact smith scares nobody deep certainly cant help as teams can tee off and jump the short shit with no threat of it costing them. only thing you have to protect against is the screen game. not really sure what the point of bringing macklin in was considering no trigger man to take adv of his best skill? no matter how brutal smith is throwing down the field until ried has him take some shots it only gonna get worse as teams realize there no consequences for bringing the house.. with the way kc secondary has looked i just dont see them being all that competitive with teams capable of hanging points, play to play they not bad but they get torched for big chunks when the pressure doesnt get there and bungals been great keeping dalton clean.
 
Agree w spot for sf. Not only spot but matchup wise let's not forget pack d is damn near single handedly responsible for kap being the franchise qb. He has made these guys look silly in a number of ways passing and w his legs. Even tho the gb run d been stout I think it mostly cause situation the offense has put the other team in, st will stick w Hyde and should be able to control game if kap is making plays on 3rd down to extend drives. The freaking bears of all ppl did this in week 1 and as poor as sf has shown the last 2 I still believe they better than chi.
 
D-Woww said:
Packers -4 means that ud have GB -7 on a neutral? Cant buy into that. Still gonna parlay the ML instead of laying hte points though.

GB/SEA/SD/ARI ML parlay at +150 is my only play of the week. Tough card.
Click to expand...

Id be worried about that bet. Last week was the week to cash that kinda bet.

Agree with emkee on his thoughts

.I think you got to bet on shitty teams to win in this league or at least perceived shitty teams.
 
Regarding the GB line. Over the last two seasons, GB has won by more than a TD on the road only 3 times (in 17 road games).
 
Tito said:
I like Zona and Atlanta, big favs...but may tease Atl. Like Zona more. The argument against Zona is they have played bad teams. Rams are a bad team too, not like they have stepped up in competition, and Zona proving they can spank bad teams.
Click to expand...
Much too kind with your assessment of the Rams. Rams have Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and McDonald on this overrated defense. Brockers, Long, Laurenitis and company have shown to be average. Think I'm wrong, show me the Pro Bowlers on this defense and see if you find more than the 2 I've mentioned. Offensively, I love Nick Foles but unfortunately he's playing for a bunch of coaches who really should be coaching at a junior high school. Gurley is probably going to come out of his career looking like a bust because, well just check the last sentence. The rest of their offense is a joke. They can't block and they have no WRs who are difference makers.
id be shocked if Arizona doesn't roll them 34-10
 
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braves said:
Id be worried about that bet. Last week was the week to cash that kinda bet.

Agree with emkee on his thoughts

.I think you got to bet on shitty teams to win in this league or at least perceived shitty teams.
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I kind of disagree with this. in my eyes the league right now is eight decent teams and then a bunch of slop. those teams can be counted on to win games they should win, but the rest of the league is a complete crapshoot and when those teams intermix, its prob gonna be a 1-3 point spread every time. so in that case I understand playing underdogs is probably valuable, but I think in this league of haves and have-nots you can count on the haves to win
 
I was wrong about Balty last weekend...but I'll probably play them again tonight. I'm not a big believer in the Pitt defense, I think their secondary is vulnerable. I can see Flacco and Co. putting up points tonight, and I have serious doubts about the capabilities of Vick. Pretty sure I watched Vick fumble the second time he tried dropping back last weekend..he has the tendency to be a turnover machine at times. If Balty can get a lead, somewhat contain Bell, and force Vick to beat them..I think Balty wins this game.
 
Through the first 3 games,

Steelers opponents...

Combined record = 5-4

Ravens opponents...

Combined record = 8-1

an_light.gif
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody" style="outline: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NFL - 10/1/2015[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[TD="class: sportsbook, align: right"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"]10/01

8:25 PM


101 BAL-J Flacco
102 PIT-M VICK

[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]60%
40%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]49%
51%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]47%
53%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
nbafan88 said:
How many points is Luck worth on the line? 7?
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Yes, at least 7.

Chad Millman used to do the PSVAR (point spread value above replacement), but I haven't seen one that recently. Doing a quick search, any of the references I found were ESPN Insider articles, so I couldn't read the entire article. I found another ESPN article on the topic, after Millman stopped writing there, called the PATS ranking (players against the spread), but there were no rankings in the article, even though there was a sentence that said "here are the rankings." I swear their website is just as bad as their TV networks these days.

In any event, the last Millman PSVAR rankings that I found, from 2012, had Luck worth 4 points to the spread....that was 3 seasons ago though, and at the top of the rankings, there were 8 QBs worth 7 points or more to the point spread. It's probably safe to assume that Luck is now worth about 10 points to the spread (even if it's not that high, he's surely worth 7 points to the spread). Here is the list from 2012 (I only listed the players worth 3 or more)...

[TABLE="class: cms_table"]
<tbody>[TR]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Aaron Rodgers[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Eli Manning[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Drew Brees[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Tom Brady[/TD]
[TD]8.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Peyton Manning[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Matt Ryan[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Philip Rivers[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Ben Roethlisberger[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Joe Flacco[/TD]
[TD]6.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Josh Freeman[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Cam Newton[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Matt Schaub[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Jay Cutler[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Michael Vick[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Andy Dalton[/TD]
[TD]4.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Tony Romo[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Sam Bradford[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Andrew Luck[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Ray Rice[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]LeSean McCoy[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Calvin Johnson[/TD]
[TD]3.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_last"]
[TD]Matthew Stafford[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Short fields. Terrible defenses. Flacco gonna go bananas the rest of the game now. The Ravens are ripping the steelers apart on the ground
 
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