NFL Week 3 discussion

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[TD="class: team"]NFL - 9/22/2016[/TD]
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[TD="class: team"]9/22

8:25 PM


301 HOU-B Osweiler
302 NE-J BRISSETT

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[TD="class: pct, align: center"]60%
40%
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[TD="class: pct, align: center"]50%
50%
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[TD="class: pct, align: center"]54%
46%
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emkee said:
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-group"]
[TD="class: team"]NFL - 9/22/2016[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="class: team"]9/22

8:25 PM


301 HOU-B Osweiler
302 NE-J BRISSETT
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]60%
40%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]50%
50%[/TD]
[TD="class: pct, align: center"]54%
46%[/TD]
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Love that picture of Wentz man
 
the props I played:

Osweiler passing TDs -.5 (EV) vs. Brisett
Will Fuller o70.5 yards receiving -125
 
Yeah I'm sure if they win tonight it will be due to some sort of cheating, probably leftover deflated balls.
 
No idea why the raiders/titans total is getting more under money. Both teams should have very good success offensively. Good game for over props for sure
 
nbafan88 said:
No idea why the raiders/titans total is getting more under money. Both teams should have very good success offensively. Good game for over props for sure
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Agree. During the preseason, the Titans played the Raiders in the 3rd game. The one where the starters play at least into the 3Q and Tennesse gashed us for 20 1H points. They looked unstoppable with the no huddle, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did it this weekend. I'm already on the OVER 46.5 and I think they hit into the 50's. Raiders defense has been swish cheese.
 
Sunday early game prop leans


Overs in Tennessee... sharpe, walker and Cooper yards prop overs


Cards/bills:
Floyd yards over/longest reception over


Skins/gmen:
Jordan reed over yards prop
Cruz over yards


Browns/fins
Dolphins passing attack


Ravens/Jags
Flacco over pass attempts/Mike Wallace over yards and over longest reception


Packers/Lions
Aaron Rodgers over TDs/Yards


Broncos/Bengals
CJ Anderson over rush/receiving yards and/or over receptions


Vikings/panthers
Benjamin over yards
Diggs over yards & over receptions



 
nbafan88 said:
Sunday early game prop leans


Overs in Tennessee... sharpe, walker and Cooper yards prop overs


Cards/bills:
Floyd yards over/longest reception over


Skins/gmen:
Jordan reed over yards prop
Cruz over yards


Browns/fins
Dolphins passing attack


Ravens/Jags
Flacco over pass attempts/Mike Wallace over yards and over longest reception


Packers/Lions
Aaron Rodgers over TDs/Yards


Broncos/Bengals
CJ Anderson over rush/receiving yards and/or over receptions


Vikings/panthers
Benjamin over yards
Diggs over yards & over receptions



Click to expand...

Only ones I like in that group are reed all categories and amari all categories. Will drop in Sunday morning with my final list.

If jimmy graham is anywhere in the 3.5-40 range i plan on laughing all the way to the bank
 
not sure why floyd/sharpe/diggs are trustworthy enough unless you're taking fliers, nor Rodgers with the public sentiment about him
 
GWarner27 said:
not sure why floyd/sharpe/diggs are trustworthy enough unless you're taking fliers, nor Rodgers with the public sentiment about him
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Read the matchups column on rotoworld. There's a wealth of info in there.

These are all leans for now. Diggs lines won't be adjusted enough for at least a couple more weeks imo.


Floyd gets a lot of big yardage plays as he is the deep threat. Buffalo is absolutely horrendous defensively and I don't see that changing. Same goes for the raiders. For over props I like incorporating SI %s. if a total has a lot of over action I tend to shy away from those games. Again, the matchups column is gold.
 
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I like Diggs long term prospects a lot but I really hate him this week. Someone else needs to step up for them and do anything. Pretend you are the Panthers d coordinator, and think about how you would prepare for the Vikings. There is nothing else on that offense even remotely threatening at the moment, all you have to do is cover one guy. Good example of this is Aj Green week 1 and 2. Jets let Revis cover Aj solo and didnt respect the fact the Bengals only had 1 legit offensive weapon. Then look what the Steelers did to him, their entire defensive gameplan revolved around making sure AJ didn't do anything and he didn't , and neither did the offense as a whole.

Also don't think the Bills and Raiders will be anywhere near as bad on defense once a few more weeks get mixed into the stats, especially the Raiders. I think Floyd is a fine pick but Sharpe is a big stretch. I'd be much more interested in Rishard Mathews if david amerson doesnt clear concussion protocol.
 
i would argue John Brown is the ARI deep threat, but i do agree they take some deep shots to Floyd while Fitz is the possession guy. I steer clear of the "only run go's" guys in fantasy, though, so I guess I can't see it the same way as I am very risk averse
 
GWarner27 said:
i would argue John Brown is the ARI deep threat, but i do agree they take some deep shots to Floyd while Fitz is the possession guy. I steer clear of the "only run go's" guys in fantasy, though, so I guess I can't see it the same way as I am very risk averse
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John Brown has faded into oblivion. Forget if he was injured or concussed preseason but he obviously isn't over it. Floyd was a beast down the stretch last year when he was finally healthy and would probably be one of the top guys in the league if fitz was gone. I was allin on floyd last week...that worked out well.

This game stinks like the Rams game last week. Nothing about it says the bills should win but I think they do. line movement certainly supports the theory.
 
locked in prop bets tonight: graham td +150, reed td even money.

Seahawks -9.5: This game is going to be 40+ to single digits. Also for DFSers, this isn't a bet just some info....seattle defense -110 to score a td. Next closest is cardinals +140. Ive never looked at defensive td odds before but I imagine its extremely rare for a defensive td to be juiced

Props ill lock in morning when lines are posted: Amari over yardage and receptions, graham receptions and yardage, C micheal carries and yardage. My site had lines posted for a little earlier but I think it was an accident and they took them down. They had amari at like 75 for yardage, going big on that. Also going whatever max bet my book allows me on C Micheals carries if its in the 15-18 range.
 
Re: Zona - Buff... the move from -5 to -3.5 really means very little to me. How much higher could they open the cardinals? Arizona would get the majority of wagers no matter what the line was set at. They can't set it above a TD this early. I don't think it's a fishy line tbh. I would really like someone more familiar with the bills to chime in. I don't see how this team performs well enough to keep up with the cardinals.
 
I like this card way too much. Seattle is probably one of the best plays on the board. That offense will eventually click to where the team lets out all that frustration. Defense is dominating and the 49ers defense doesn't scare anyone.

At first glance I thought Pitt -3.5 was a strong line with how the eagles have played. Lots of pitt action mt I'm a and will avoid the giants game. Need to first see props to see how many I will play.
 
Love the Vikings, not a team in the league I wouldn't back minny against catching a td. All they really gotta do is hit 17 and cover should be in the bag.. Other rbs plenty capable, as much as I've knocked Bradford over the years I think he makes offense better than it would have been with teddy b under center..

Agree w p2 that jets are live doggie. Arrowhead tough ass place and I give kc 3.5 hfa there but i make jets 3 points better on neutral so thrilled with +3 -120. Better yet love jets+8.5/phins-3 6 point teaser.

id like to play Cincy but that hook scares me in a game I think low scoring w more fgs than tds. Under 43 is all for me at moment, if the hook comes off I'd consider bungals cause they been one the best home teams since ginger been around..


close to playing bucs. Fisher lead lambs tend to lay down after getting their division upsets. Fish/bucs ml parlay is -106 which seems incredibly cheap and safe to me..
 
nbafan88 said:
Re: Zona - Buff... the move from -5 to -3.5 really means very little to me. How much higher could they open the cardinals? Arizona would get the majority of wagers no matter what the line was set at. They can't set it above a TD this early. I don't think it's a fishy line tbh. I would really like someone more familiar with the bills to chime in. I don't see how this team performs well enough to keep up with the cardinals.
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New OC which was the rb coach, and he has been saying all week they want to move at a faster tempo. Kind of tough to do with likely no Watkins, clay or Salas, so I would expect a ton of plays centered around Shady (making him i think a very solid DFS addition) and quick hitters to get the ball out of TT hands. Woods will have to step up if they are going to have a shot. I just have a feeling the offense will respond well to the change, and Tyrod's home/away splits are night & day.

Defensively the secondary can't play any worse than they did vs the Jets (plus NYJ wr were making plays all night). Gilmore is a legit #1 cb and Darby though he struggles at times is above average. I worry about Fitz in the slot eating whoever covers him (little ass Robey???) alive because of the sheer size difference. However, overall I expect a much better defensive output today.


IMO the Bills tt o21 is the best option on board....they will have to score 23+ to even have a shot at a win barring a total meltdown by zona....
 
No Darby. Can't endorse play on bills ats. Over could be good but I hate playing teams off high scoring games.... fitz/palmer could be big dfs
 
And yet the line is down to -3.5. Crazy. It's pretty much a must win if Rex wants his job, but big mismatch in secondary, Glenn still out so it will take a heroic Tyrod, Mccoy effort. Sticking with tt but 2ndh over could be worth a look. Drunken 2ndh wagers from the stadium a possibility
 
Doesn't really apply to the NFL as much as college but it's a strong line for sure. I'm expecting the Seahawks to get right vs the Niners
 
3 more props


Cruz o52.5 receiving +105
Benjamin o75.5 receiving +105
Benjamin o5.5 receptions +105

bengals -3.5 -102 and o48 in buffalo is all I'm on in the early slate
 
Just peeked at the box score from the Rams/Bucs games last year. Looks like a very misleading final score. Rams did most of their damage on kick returns, turnovers and penalties (against TB). Haven't seen anything out of the Rams offense to impress me so far. Coming off an emotional win, I'll take the Bucs.
 
C-MAN said:
Just peeked at the box score from the Rams/Bucs games last year. Looks like a very misleading final score. Rams did most of their damage on kick returns, turnovers and penalties (against TB). Haven't seen anything out of the Rams offense to impress me so far. Coming off an emotional win, I'll take the Bucs.
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Cant believe that line dropping. Not in lambs or fisher Dna to come out and play strong after getting their token divisional upset. Cross country against embarrassed Tampa team in their home opener, don't think lambs can hold bucs under 20, dunno how they win a game in the 20s? Sign me up.
 
Delanie Walker might be the best TE in the league when you account for blocking.

Niners should have chosen him over VD.
 
C-MAN said:
Just peeked at the box score from the Rams/Bucs games last year. Looks like a very misleading final score. Rams did most of their damage on kick returns, turnovers and penalties (against TB). Haven't seen anything out of the Rams offense to impress me so far. Coming off an emotional win, I'll take the Bucs.
Click to expand...

Cant believe that line dropping. Not in lambs or fisher Dna to come out and play strong after getting their token divisional upset. Cross country against embarrassed Tampa team in their home opener, don't think lambs can hold bucs under 20, dunno how they win a game in the 20s? Sign me up.
 
Gonna wait for that after-work money to come in before making MNF play.

Have a strong lean.

BLANG apparently on the Dirty Birds 1st half.
 
I just can't lay points with the Saints here... I'm a weirdo capper and hand write out a bunch of my thoughts weekly. Looked back at my first thoughts on live dogs week 3

Rams, Eagles, Chargers, Redskins, Broncos, Falcons. TB, Colts, Cincy, NO notes for plays against was these teams don't deserve to be favored. I understand they have to be, but I won't lay pts with bad d.
 
The more I look the more I think I may just wait until the half side wise. First look was to the over but it's so public.... still it's over or nothing for me. I don't want to count on two offensive scoring teams both with suspect defenses doing an about face to win a wager. Could be lower scoring with turnovers inside the 20s but I think tds are scored.....
 
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