NFL Week 3 discussion

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
Week to week discussions have been pretty poor so far. Used to be good for 2 or 3 pages. Lets try to start that back up. Someone post lines please.

Texans down to pk last night. I can't help but love them. So many ppl were like "omg NE as a home dog!" but lets be real, BB is a great coach but he is not a superhero. Brissett is not good. I watched him in college and he is at best a 2-3 year project but more likely hes more like Logan Thomas.

The Dolphins almost came back on the pats with him and hes not going to bet better over the course of 4 days. The Pats in in Zona had both Jimmy G at QB, and BB had ALL offseason to gameplan.

Thinking Houston here. This team is legit imo. Having a hard time finding a lot of plays this week. Don't see how SD/Ind stays under the total.

Buffalo is definitely a sharp side, but can i bet on that team right now? They appear ot be a dumpster fire.

Minnesota D too good to get 7, but without AP will their offense struggle? Carolina has looked human.

Cincy will likely be a play for me. Finally a team that can make the broncos realize that Trevor Siemian is their QB.

Miami -10 is a ton to lay with a bad team but Kessler is garbage

GB should get teh SU win

Like Tennesse at home

If i were to finalize my card right now, it be:

Houston pk
Ten -1.5
Cincy -3
SD/Indy over 51
Miami-4/GB -1 teaser
 
D-Woww said:
Thinking Houston here. This team is legit imo. Having a hard time finding a lot of plays this week. Don't see how SD/Ind stays under the total.
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Agree with your thoughts on Houston, really very curious as to how this game plays out. I would have to think they try to get Blount going grind the game down. I'm sure the passes will mostly be quick hitters as per usual but if the Texans start dominating the line Watts could terrorize Brissett. Hoodie great at taking away what you do best. Is the Pats secondary good enough to contain Hop/Fuller? After the second half of the Fins game.... not so sure. Total low for a reason, pretty sure it opened @42 down to 40.5. If Brock can have a turnover free game and make a couple plays I think they can get over 20 pts as the Patriots have allowed that many in both games thus far.


SD/Indy over is a scary one to me. Both flew over the totals last week but the Indy line was getting blown up every play. Now possibly without Moncrief that offense starts to look very vanilla. This may be a game where they try and control TOP and just escape with a win. Plus on the other side of the ball you have Rivers without his top wr and now without his outlet guy in Woodhead. May be much more of a ground game than is expected, not endorsing the under just playing devil's advocate. Gordon may make a very nice DFS play (as may Gore on the cheap).
 
I like the under in Indy although it is not likely to make my card. Thoughts very similar to Lex. With moncrief out or limited and Hilton likely drawing Verrett's attention Luck with limited options in the passing game. SD should be able to run with Gordon. Hate betting unders with Rivers as he likes to sling it but expect some ball control offense from both teams.
 
I get this is the NFL and no team takes a week for granted, especially the Pats, but can't help thinking BB will not want to show Hou too much. 2-0 without Tom so playing with house money. Divisional game on deck vs Buff - a team they dislike and have had good success against. Hou is a legit player in the AFC this year and BB should expect to possibly see them again in the post season. Also, pretty sure all of Brissett's passes were completed at or near the LOS last week. That attack is not likely to work against Hou's defense and not sure 4 days is enough for NE to get comfortable with Brissett's ability to read coverages and throw down field.
 
c-man and lex,

this is why these discussion threads are so great. removing indy over from consideration. if it hits, it hits, but those are good points.
 
may replace it with atlanta/NO over. that game is gonna be lit as hell. bet saints overs at home and meet me at the cash window
 
Lexington 125 said:
Agree with your thoughts on Houston, really very curious as to how this game plays out. I would have to think they try to get Blount going grind the game down. I'm sure the passes will mostly be quick hitters as per usual but if the Texans start dominating the line Watts could terrorize Brissett. Hoodie great at taking away what you do best. Is the Pats secondary good enough to contain Hop/Fuller? After the second half of the Fins game.... not so sure. Total low for a reason, pretty sure it opened @42 down to 40.5. If Brock can have a turnover free game and make a couple plays I think they can get over 20 pts as the Patriots have allowed that many in both games thus far.


SD/Indy over is a scary one to me. Both flew over the totals last week but the Indy line was getting blown up every play. Now possibly without Moncrief that offense starts to look very vanilla. This may be a game where they try and control TOP and just escape with a win. Plus on the other side of the ball you have Rivers without his top wr and now without his outlet guy in Woodhead. May be much more of a ground game than is expected, not endorsing the under just playing devil's advocate. Gordon may make a very nice DFS play (as may Gore on the cheap).
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I think that's it right there. If Osweiler takes care of the ball, Hou should win.
 
im sure o'brien knows that too so hes gonna run, as is BB. Might be an ugly boring game. under looks good.
 
Most of the wagers and the money is on Houston FYI. I have no idea why on earth anyone would go against the pats in any game this entire season. Don't care who's playing QB. Would you play Houston if the game was on Sunday? Probably not.
 
Leaning towards under 43 in Carolina/Minny game. Both teams have pretty good defenses and Bradford is gonna have to play on the road this time.

Siemian an having to play on the road also will be interesting.
 
nbafan88 said:
Most of the wagers and the money is on Houston FYI. I have no idea why on earth anyone would go against the pats in any game this entire season. Don't care who's playing QB. Would you play Houston if the game was on Sunday? Probably not.
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absolutely. i dont buy that Bellichick is some magician who can win with anyone. Hes the GOAT coach, dont get me wrong, but when your QB can't throw an NFL ball, and he only has 4 days to plan, what can he do here? You are making it sound like the Pats cover 90% of the time

im gonna let teh "sharps" who insist on "pats at home getting points!" and dont use the logic that jacoby brissett is not a good qb at all. i had him as a 7th rounder and thought the pats reached for him. Granted, they probably saw something they liked and in a few years time im sure BB can make him decent, but hes nowhere near ready.

Im taking this gift. If Jacoby Brissett beats me then he beats me and it is what it is. But Houston isnt going to let him throw screens to the tight ends all night.

And god forbid if Watt hits him hard and Edleman is their QB
 
Its pretty well established that sharps dont bet on players and teams as much as they bet on numbers. So if they wanna bet the Pats at home out of concept, then that is on them and its their right. However, Im betting against a guy who I watched a ton of at NC State and with Brady and Jimmy G, I cant imagine hes even practiced much with this team.
 
nbafan88 said:
Most of the wagers and the money is on Houston FYI. I have no idea why on earth anyone would go against the pats in any game this entire season. Don't care who's playing QB. Would you play Houston if the game was on Sunday? Probably not.
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I will never believe most of the money is against the patriots at home as basically a pick em. Source? This is exactly the kind of game I would play. Public home team favored by less than 3 vs a physical defense. Ne has done everything perfectly despite no gronk, Brady, exceeding expectations but they showed how the defense can break down when the offense isn't sustaining drives. Houston can hang defensively and they have the line to get to the qb- Fwiw I would be fading pats here is garrappolo was healthy, just would get a better line.
 
9/22
08:25 PMTeams
301 - Houston Texans
302 - New England Patriots

Market Avg.
2016-301-spct-u.gif

Open
+0 -115
+0 104
Current
+0 -116
+0 105

Line Chart​
 
And I agree, it's a bizarre betting pattern...going to guess the books don't really know what to do with this one, just gonna try their best. It's not like anyone even knows what's going on with NE team anyway
 
yeah im really banking on this whole "garoppolo might actually play" story as a bunch of BS to keep Houston guessing. I tore my AC joint a few months ago. To think a guy who did that to his throwing shoulder would play 4 days later is just beyond crazy to me.
 
Would be shocked if JG plays tonight. On another note, I bet SF, Hou and Jack early, but other than those 3 I am finding it really hard to find plays I am in love with this week. Will probably just end up teasing Mia with a few teams as Mia-3 looks very appealing.
 
Pats 9-2 SU (10-1 ATS) as a home dog in the 'Brady-era'.

Pats 10-0 SU (9-1 ATS) last 10 games after playing the Fins.

Pats 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) vs the Texans.

Pats 9-1 SU on Thursday in the 'Brady-era'.

Brisset is a massive ? though but Belly-ache is the best in the business.
 
I'd be shocked if he plays tonight also. I have a feeling he may play tomorrow though. Every time I hear a new report he's upgraded...six weeks, four weeks, one week, doubtful, game time decision.

Edelman is their next resort for a QB. If Jimmy isn't healthy enough to play, why the hell would they take the chance that Edelman may have to go in there? They didn't look for a new backup or practice anyone new. I think if Jimmy is well enough to play backup & be dressed they would play him.
 
I read that they did try out some guys, although don't remember seeing names. It's possible Edelman may be a better option than what they saw.
 
In normal circumstances you'd fade a rookie QB on a short week

But with New England you're not betting against Brisset, you're betting against the 'system' ran by Belichick

Beli 11-2 SU on a short week (5 days or less rest) since 2010. 24-8 SU overall in the 'Brady-era'.
 
Lexington 125 said:
I will never believe most of the money is against the patriots at home as basically a pick em. Source? This is exactly the kind of game I would play. Public home team favored by less than 3 vs a physical defense. Ne has done everything perfectly despite no gronk, Brady, exceeding expectations but they showed how the defense can break down when the offense isn't sustaining drives. Houston can hang defensively and they have the line to get to the qb- Fwiw I would be fading pats here is garrappolo was healthy, just would get a better line.
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You don't have to believe anything but sportsinsights is respected and I believe the numbers 110%
 
C-MAN said:
I read that they did try out some guys, although don't remember seeing names. It's possible Edelman may be a better option than what they saw.
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Maybe it's because I was half shitfaced but Brisset did not look that bad to me, at all. Granted he started with a nice cushion but his role was to not lose, they already had it won. Different scenario starting the game so surely it will be a different game plan/play calling. I didn't think Jimmy had a shot in hell of getting them to 2-0 & I still see him making some mistakes. The kid looks good but he isn't doing this on his own. I think Brisett can do enough of what's asked of him to get the W here. Assuming he plays that is. My +1.5 ticket will look pretty good if Jimmy starts.
 
I really like the Texans this season and was all over them weeks 1 and 2 but I don't trust them on a short week, getting all of this love and going to Foxboro of all places. Give me NE D at home vs Brock.
 
D-Woww said:
may replace it with atlanta/NO over. that game is gonna be lit as hell. bet saints overs at home and meet me at the cash window
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Drew Brees on MNF in the dome has been money for some time

throw the Gleason factor in for the 10 year anny of the blocked(there is a statue of him blocking the punt outside the Dome)

should be a wild night
 
D-Woww said:
Week to week discussions have been pretty poor so far. Used to be good for 2 or 3 pages. Lets try to start that back up. Someone post lines please.

Texans down to pk last night. I can't help but love them. So many ppl were like "omg NE as a home dog!" but lets be real, BB is a great coach but he is not a superhero. Brissett is not good. I watched him in college and he is at best a 2-3 year project but more likely hes more like Logan Thomas.

The Dolphins almost came back on the pats with him and hes not going to bet better over the course of 4 days. The Pats in in Zona had both Jimmy G at QB, and BB had ALL offseason to gameplan.

Thinking Houston here. This team is legit imo. Having a hard time finding a lot of plays this week. Don't see how SD/Ind stays under the total.

Buffalo is definitely a sharp side, but can i bet on that team right now? They appear ot be a dumpster fire.

Minnesota D too good to get 7, but without AP will their offense struggle? Carolina has looked human.

Cincy will likely be a play for me. Finally a team that can make the broncos realize that Trevor Siemian is their QB.

Miami -10 is a ton to lay with a bad team but Kessler is garbage

GB should get teh SU win

Like Tennesse at home

If i were to finalize my card right now, it be:

Houston pk
Ten -1.5
Cincy -3
SD/Indy over 51
Miami-4/GB -1 teaser
Click to expand...
I'm warming up to Cincy and agree with your take but also that Den/Ind final score was misleading as it got ugly in the end, Colts (I don't like this season) were hanging around. And I had Den week #1 but they were a bit lucky there as well.
 
emkee said:
That line in Cincy is pretty low all things considered.
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Not sure. It is defending SB champs and they are 2-0 (lucky). Seems like these lines are different this yr, we'll see but it seems they are like perception moves rather than early season adjustments, could be wrong but that's my take.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Much like Carolina last week, GB is a must teaser play at -1. Now, it's just a matter of finding a partner.
Click to expand...

Pats to +7 isn't bad. I've vowed to only play dogs in teasers this year but I must say GB was tempting. Jax to +7 or NYJ to +9 are solid options also.
 
Early line back in April (CG Tech) for tonight's game was Pats -8, ELO has Pats -6.

Gonna sit on this one and probably make a play later.
 
Zeke said:
Pats to +7 isn't bad. I've vowed to only play dogs in teasers this year but I must say GB was tempting. Jax to +7 or NYJ to +9 are solid options also.
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Same with me. I rarely play teasers but if I do it's always with dogs
 
Zeke said:
Heard this yesterday on the radio. I've been saying it most of the week, don't be surprised to see Jimmy play. Grabbed Amendola over 29.5 yards, think it hits regardless of the QB.
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Jimmy G won't play, why risk it vs the Texans front-7 with Rex on deck next week.

Better to start Brissett in the friendly confines of Gilette vs a non-Div opponent.
 
emkee said:
Jimmy G won't play, why risk it vs the Texans front-7 with Rex on deck next week.

Better to start Brissett in the friendly confines of Gilette vs a non-Div opponent.
Click to expand...

I just checked the local sports station website, looks like you're right. They've been teasing it all week. I did just read Gronk is gametime but the reporter indicated there's a strong chance he plays.
 
i can't back NE despite thinking about it for a while today, but i think you're crazy to lay points in NE. Don't hate C-MAN's theory about BUF on deck, but the 10 days between games don't have me convinced. Also not sure what they'd be afraid of showing with Brisett as he can only do a tenth of what Brady can.

No fear here without AD, gotta decide if it's worth the price but that MIN D can keep them in any game. Superman could go off and we have no chance losing 42-35, though.

Miami line is crazy and would not advise a survivor play on them. Unfortunately, losing close doesn't mean you win games nor does it mean you cover spreads as favorites either.

nbafan88 said:
Most of the wagers and the money is on Houston FYI. I have no idea why on earth anyone would go against the pats in any game this entire season. Don't care who's playing QB. Would you play Houston if the game was on Sunday? Probably not.
Click to expand...

we have at least 14 more chances, silly thing to say

cogenman said:
Leaning towards under 43 in Carolina/Minny game. Both teams have pretty good defenses and Bradford is gonna have to play on the road this time.
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i'd be worried about Cam for that under, but feel good about it being tight

Play2win said:
Speaking of lines, Jets look live and have had extra prep time
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hate that they've fallen below 3. Seems like they bring the DL that will give KC fits and force Smith to throw to beat them, which he hasn't proven he can do to WRs in KC or in his career. NYJ is pretty close to being 2-0 and I've been impressed by how they fought a good team in Week 1 and then overcame some massive plays to a division rival to win handily

Gorgolon Lives said:
Much like Carolina last week, GB is a must teaser play at -1. Now, it's just a matter of finding a partner.
Click to expand...

my problem with teasers is you have to win two games to win it and you don't get much better juice. Asking too much
 
Played Blount over 81.5 yards rushing +105, o21.5 rushing attempts +125 and 15+ yards longest rush +105
 
Best play for tonight is no play, way too many intangibles.

Ton of great spots on Sunday.
 
List of the 5 most disliked NFL players dropped today...

1. Colin K (29%)

2. Jameis (22%)

3. Suh (21%)

4. Brady (13%)

5. Big Ben (10%)
 
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