NFL Week 3 Action

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 9-11 -0.63 units

Last week was just one of those weeks. Every team I wagered on just seemed to turn the ball over at a frantic pace. Some of the teams (Oakland and Houston) just proved to be completely incapable of sustaining any consistancy. There I was sitting in the RIO 0-6 in the morning. I fired back with a 2 unit play on SF, straight wager on KC, and the capper: 5 team teaser card that payed 5 to 1. While I was able to recoup some of my losses, I still find myself in the red for the 1st time this season. Time to adjust the roll, and move forward to week #3.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Posted: Pitt -2 41
My line: Pitt -3.5 42
My play: STEELERS -2, -104

It's hard to imagine a better spot to play the Steelers at home for such a small spot. The media whores would have you believing that the Bengals are the best team in the NFL. The Steelers? They looked terrible on Monday night. Rothliesberger is no longer capable of running the offense, they can't run the ball, blah, blah, blah.

I see it much differently. I see a Cincy offense that will be without TWO starters on the offensive line. Losing starting center Brahm is significant on many levels. For starters, Palmer has never taken a snap from another center in his career. Second, Brahm makes all the line calls for the Bengals, which is big when playing the a team like Pitt, who shows multiple fronts, and multiple blitz packages. The Bengals also limp in with a depleted LB core, and missing their starting SS. Think the Steelers are going to go back to pounding the ball?

The bottom line here, is that you can play a very good home team, coming off a loss, against a team that is currently overrated on the pointspread. Don't get me wrong, Cincy is very good and will likely have a great season. But come 4 pm est on 9/24, they will be 2-1.

Jacksonville @ Indy

Posted: Indy -7 42.5
My line: Indy -4.5 42
My play: JAGS +7, -110

In a series that has seen Indy win a game by 10 points just 3 times since 1995, how can you not like Jax? In recent years, Jax has shown that they are not intimidated by Manning or the dome. They were the first team to really play the "quarters" defense against Indy, and it worked.....until Indy starting feeding Edgerrin James. Well, guess what? Indy doesn't have the Edge anymore. Nor are they likely to have they're prized free agent signing Adam Vinatieri is likely to miss. Also banged up are Dwight Freeney and Ryan Diem, two key contributors.

Byron Leftwich has always had success against the Indy defense, and given the way he has played the first two weeks, I see no reason for that to stop on Sunday.

Chicago @ Minnesota

Posted: Chicago -3.5 33
My line: PK 35
My play: VIKINGS +185

If you thought the hype machine was out of control with the Bengals, check the Bears. All week, all we have heard is how the Bears now have an offense! Oh really? Since when did Green Bay and Detroit have stellar defenses? I'm not buying into this hype one bit. 2 good games by Rex Grossman does not erase the inconsistancies he has shown in the past. The Bears have scored a good amount of points off turnovers that put them into favorable field position. While the Bears have been beating up on lesser competition AT HOME, the Vikings have garnered two wins over Washington and Carolina, which are significant upgrades in competition over the Bears and Lions. Minnesota will be the best defense the Bears have seen this season, and they get them in the dome, where Chicago is 1-4 since 1991.

How good is that Bears offense? Well, they played a bad defense in Green Bay and a mediocre defense in Detroit. While the media hype machine will point to the passing rating of Grossman, let's look at some stats that actually matter when capping a game: 3rd Down Conversions, Yards/Play, and Yards/Game:

Chicago: 3rd down conv = 38.5%
Minny: 3rd down conv = 34.4%

Chicago: Yards/Play = 5.9
Minny: Yards/Play = 5.0

Chicago: Yards/game = 372
Minny: Yards/game = 337

When you consider the level of competition these teams have faced, the numbers are pretty even.

Leans:

SAN FRAN +6
DENVER +7

Good Luck!
 
have the same thoughts on playing Minny, took the spread though at 3.5

after a 49 yard pass on the first drive vs GB the rest ended in FG's and a punt return TD... not impressive IMO.

GL SMh:cheers:
 
Please blast the shit out of the Broncos tomorrow night. I hate their ass bad, but they are good as a dog and they own Brady's shit.

3 point game tomorrow night!
 
i'm on pit and min as well (ats)...i am also playing both of youre leans...

its interesting, i always lock my plays before i read other peoples threads (so i dont get biased) and we are totally on the same page! good luck to us tomorrow!!
 
Only one starter out for Cincy bro on offensive line and that's Braham....Levi Jones is playing...he sat out last week to purposely be ready for this week...
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Only one starter out for Cincy bro on offensive line and that's Braham....Levi Jones is playing...he sat out last week to purposely be ready for this week...

Oh don't be a homer....LOL...thanks for the info, still think they are walking into a nightmare spot. I know it means alot to your franchise to win this one though. Interesting not that Olympic is holding steady at Pitt -3, while everyone else is at 2 or 1.5

Adding:

Denver @ New England

Posted: New England -7 39
My line: New England -4 40
My play: DENVER +7, -110

Two thing I've been hearing/reading all week:

1. Denver stinks
2. New England has revenge in mind

Well, the way I see it, Denver is still a viable playoff team, and revenge is for High School teams. I still have Denver rated as having one of the better defenses in the league, and still question where the playmakers for NE are? This game should come down to the wire. I'll take the 7 here.

Good luck!
 
great lookin card. good numbers on jags an denver, both 6.5 now. good luck today
 
smh....don't bank on olympic being accurate....they play games with their lines.....you may see a 3....but you may not be able to play it.....sometimes these guys.....leave their lines high for locals that use their numbers....then they try to get down with a local on the inflated line...

took minny with you...but took the points...


looking into cleveland later

good luck
 
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