smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 9-11 -0.63 units
Last week was just one of those weeks. Every team I wagered on just seemed to turn the ball over at a frantic pace. Some of the teams (Oakland and Houston) just proved to be completely incapable of sustaining any consistancy. There I was sitting in the RIO 0-6 in the morning. I fired back with a 2 unit play on SF, straight wager on KC, and the capper: 5 team teaser card that payed 5 to 1. While I was able to recoup some of my losses, I still find myself in the red for the 1st time this season. Time to adjust the roll, and move forward to week #3.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Posted: Pitt -2 41
My line: Pitt -3.5 42
My play: STEELERS -2, -104
It's hard to imagine a better spot to play the Steelers at home for such a small spot. The media whores would have you believing that the Bengals are the best team in the NFL. The Steelers? They looked terrible on Monday night. Rothliesberger is no longer capable of running the offense, they can't run the ball, blah, blah, blah.
I see it much differently. I see a Cincy offense that will be without TWO starters on the offensive line. Losing starting center Brahm is significant on many levels. For starters, Palmer has never taken a snap from another center in his career. Second, Brahm makes all the line calls for the Bengals, which is big when playing the a team like Pitt, who shows multiple fronts, and multiple blitz packages. The Bengals also limp in with a depleted LB core, and missing their starting SS. Think the Steelers are going to go back to pounding the ball?
The bottom line here, is that you can play a very good home team, coming off a loss, against a team that is currently overrated on the pointspread. Don't get me wrong, Cincy is very good and will likely have a great season. But come 4 pm est on 9/24, they will be 2-1.
Jacksonville @ Indy
Posted: Indy -7 42.5
My line: Indy -4.5 42
My play: JAGS +7, -110
In a series that has seen Indy win a game by 10 points just 3 times since 1995, how can you not like Jax? In recent years, Jax has shown that they are not intimidated by Manning or the dome. They were the first team to really play the "quarters" defense against Indy, and it worked.....until Indy starting feeding Edgerrin James. Well, guess what? Indy doesn't have the Edge anymore. Nor are they likely to have they're prized free agent signing Adam Vinatieri is likely to miss. Also banged up are Dwight Freeney and Ryan Diem, two key contributors.
Byron Leftwich has always had success against the Indy defense, and given the way he has played the first two weeks, I see no reason for that to stop on Sunday.
Chicago @ Minnesota
Posted: Chicago -3.5 33
My line: PK 35
My play: VIKINGS +185
If you thought the hype machine was out of control with the Bengals, check the Bears. All week, all we have heard is how the Bears now have an offense! Oh really? Since when did Green Bay and Detroit have stellar defenses? I'm not buying into this hype one bit. 2 good games by Rex Grossman does not erase the inconsistancies he has shown in the past. The Bears have scored a good amount of points off turnovers that put them into favorable field position. While the Bears have been beating up on lesser competition AT HOME, the Vikings have garnered two wins over Washington and Carolina, which are significant upgrades in competition over the Bears and Lions. Minnesota will be the best defense the Bears have seen this season, and they get them in the dome, where Chicago is 1-4 since 1991.
How good is that Bears offense? Well, they played a bad defense in Green Bay and a mediocre defense in Detroit. While the media hype machine will point to the passing rating of Grossman, let's look at some stats that actually matter when capping a game: 3rd Down Conversions, Yards/Play, and Yards/Game:
Chicago: 3rd down conv = 38.5%
Minny: 3rd down conv = 34.4%
Chicago: Yards/Play = 5.9
Minny: Yards/Play = 5.0
Chicago: Yards/game = 372
Minny: Yards/game = 337
When you consider the level of competition these teams have faced, the numbers are pretty even.
Leans:
SAN FRAN +6
DENVER +7
Good Luck!
Last week was just one of those weeks. Every team I wagered on just seemed to turn the ball over at a frantic pace. Some of the teams (Oakland and Houston) just proved to be completely incapable of sustaining any consistancy. There I was sitting in the RIO 0-6 in the morning. I fired back with a 2 unit play on SF, straight wager on KC, and the capper: 5 team teaser card that payed 5 to 1. While I was able to recoup some of my losses, I still find myself in the red for the 1st time this season. Time to adjust the roll, and move forward to week #3.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Posted: Pitt -2 41
My line: Pitt -3.5 42
My play: STEELERS -2, -104
It's hard to imagine a better spot to play the Steelers at home for such a small spot. The media whores would have you believing that the Bengals are the best team in the NFL. The Steelers? They looked terrible on Monday night. Rothliesberger is no longer capable of running the offense, they can't run the ball, blah, blah, blah.
I see it much differently. I see a Cincy offense that will be without TWO starters on the offensive line. Losing starting center Brahm is significant on many levels. For starters, Palmer has never taken a snap from another center in his career. Second, Brahm makes all the line calls for the Bengals, which is big when playing the a team like Pitt, who shows multiple fronts, and multiple blitz packages. The Bengals also limp in with a depleted LB core, and missing their starting SS. Think the Steelers are going to go back to pounding the ball?
The bottom line here, is that you can play a very good home team, coming off a loss, against a team that is currently overrated on the pointspread. Don't get me wrong, Cincy is very good and will likely have a great season. But come 4 pm est on 9/24, they will be 2-1.
Jacksonville @ Indy
Posted: Indy -7 42.5
My line: Indy -4.5 42
My play: JAGS +7, -110
In a series that has seen Indy win a game by 10 points just 3 times since 1995, how can you not like Jax? In recent years, Jax has shown that they are not intimidated by Manning or the dome. They were the first team to really play the "quarters" defense against Indy, and it worked.....until Indy starting feeding Edgerrin James. Well, guess what? Indy doesn't have the Edge anymore. Nor are they likely to have they're prized free agent signing Adam Vinatieri is likely to miss. Also banged up are Dwight Freeney and Ryan Diem, two key contributors.
Byron Leftwich has always had success against the Indy defense, and given the way he has played the first two weeks, I see no reason for that to stop on Sunday.
Chicago @ Minnesota
Posted: Chicago -3.5 33
My line: PK 35
My play: VIKINGS +185
If you thought the hype machine was out of control with the Bengals, check the Bears. All week, all we have heard is how the Bears now have an offense! Oh really? Since when did Green Bay and Detroit have stellar defenses? I'm not buying into this hype one bit. 2 good games by Rex Grossman does not erase the inconsistancies he has shown in the past. The Bears have scored a good amount of points off turnovers that put them into favorable field position. While the Bears have been beating up on lesser competition AT HOME, the Vikings have garnered two wins over Washington and Carolina, which are significant upgrades in competition over the Bears and Lions. Minnesota will be the best defense the Bears have seen this season, and they get them in the dome, where Chicago is 1-4 since 1991.
How good is that Bears offense? Well, they played a bad defense in Green Bay and a mediocre defense in Detroit. While the media hype machine will point to the passing rating of Grossman, let's look at some stats that actually matter when capping a game: 3rd Down Conversions, Yards/Play, and Yards/Game:
Chicago: 3rd down conv = 38.5%
Minny: 3rd down conv = 34.4%
Chicago: Yards/Play = 5.9
Minny: Yards/Play = 5.0
Chicago: Yards/game = 372
Minny: Yards/game = 337
When you consider the level of competition these teams have faced, the numbers are pretty even.
Leans:
SAN FRAN +6
DENVER +7
Good Luck!
