NFL Week 2 Thoughts/Plays/Discussion
- Thread starter Marlo
- Start date
Think DT Ed Johnson ..??
Troutman
Calculated Risk Taker
Nut,
Talk to me about Tampa. How do they get it done with Griese and no brooks, how do they cover?
Will do bro. Just gimme awhile say late afternoon -evening ...Griese no worries really ...more about ATL being on the road then TB.....I always look at it like this with underdogs even big ones . How realistic is it for the team to win and the how realistic is it for this to compete for 4 quarters ...:shake:
Fuck it I'll do it now....
1st dont count Brooks out just yet . Being the home opener and the guy never missed a game chances are unless he feels he can reinjure or make itworse he will play IMO from what I have read ...
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football/bucs/article805306.ece
Big thing with TB IMO was @ NO they just failed to make the crucial plays and had some tough luck . A game if which they execute better they win and now being home again little things like better execution can have huge impacts on results .
1-Barber falls on Henderson's 84 yd TD. “We had six or seven series in a row where we were very impressive and we uncharacteristically gave up the big play,” Gruden said. “Hopefully it gets everybody’s attention and we can do a lot better than that.”
2- TB OL play must improve and at home there is a good chance it does..
Basically the game @ NO was not played well and they still probably deserved win. I think Garcia's benching has alot to do with the final sequence . They get it to the NO 28 but Garcia takes a sack on 1st down and then after a 3rd down Incompletion gets picked off on 4th down...All this whikle NO had an 84 YD TD when Barberfell , when the Saints scored due to poor tacking on Reggie Bush score , and not sure about the Patten scored but 3rd and 3 to allow a 39 yd TD pass is not good. So big plays killed them regardless of why they happened .
I knwo ATL did alot of good things in week 1 but the element of suprise was high . Now TB off a LOSS will not take them lightily as we know what starting 0-2 does to your playoff chances. Huge swing when RYan on his 1st pass hits 60YD TD and after a few drives its already 21-0 . Its a huge mountain to climb on the road . Its not going to be that easy on the road especially for Ryan IMO . The pressure ws off him when Turner was getting chunks of yards now he made need to make more plays .......
TB did very well running the ball about 19c for 150 yards and you have 2 backs in Graham and Dunn who are part of the passing game which is good for Griese IMO.
TB WRs actually did something Galloway , Hillard and Bryant with Clayton or Stovall at 4th WR could actually give some production IMO...
Greise played well for TB in the past about 500 attempts he was around 66-67% completions and 3800 yds along 27TD and 19INTS but when he was at his best in year 1 with TB his 20TDs were against 12 INTS in 11 games. I think Griese is really blemishe by his stays in Miami and CHI were talent was reall thin not that TB is clearly better but it looks better on paper and he has enjoyedprevious success...
When it boils down it I dont see ATL running vs TB anywhere near likey they did vs DET even with a similiar cover 2 defense . AS Det was prone to games like that in that past and believe TB allowed fewest yards in the NFL. Plus Ryan is a rokkie QB facing a very solid veteran defense looking to make amends for sloppy play last week. I can have faith in the defense to correct mistakes like poor tackling since they have done it before and it was only week 1 . Huge thing I see looking at the ATL game how 2 big plays early 1st Q both60+ yds staked ATL to a 14-0 lead probably before DET was evenly mentally in the game ...It was 14-0 mid 1st Q and not even 12 minutes deep its 21-0..maybe ATL needed to shed itself of the Vick drama of 2007 ...ATL just seieed control early and stole the game IMO...took 13 plays to score 3 x !!
Looking at DET starting field position it was also pretty good all night usllay between 25-35yd line and if that gets worse on the road it can be an issue....
I think even down so much DET had chances and failed to make key plays when they had decent field position around the ATL 40 twice they lost big yds on 1st down on a sack and run for a loss plus they get the ball to start the 3rdQ down 21-14 and move it abit and Kitna gets picked taken deep into DET territory and they get 3 out of it ......
So really ATL controled the tempo of the game because it started fast , hit big plays , ran the ball down DETs throat which I think will be much tougher here and later when it needed to grinded the clock out with long clock chewing drives .....
They basically played perfect and just think it wont be that simple . FOr as perfect as they played still DET was never really dead in the water after its 1st TD of the game IMO.....ATL defense is very raw and expect a droppoff on the road ....
Home field just means to much....I dont see ATL winning this game SU and while it could come down to a late FG I think even a fairly competitive game is decided by 10-14 pts as TB will be able to get a late score to make it a 2 score game worst case....believe Abraham had 3 sacks and all seem to be at huge times and the lone INT was crushing......
Brooks and how they adjust if absent I will look at but gonna be tough to decipher before hand....
TB at home just tough IMO and ATL defense to soft:cheers:
1st dont count Brooks out just yet . Being the home opener and the guy never missed a game chances are unless he feels he can reinjure or make itworse he will play IMO from what I have read ...
http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football/bucs/article805306.ece
Big thing with TB IMO was @ NO they just failed to make the crucial plays and had some tough luck . A game if which they execute better they win and now being home again little things like better execution can have huge impacts on results .
1-Barber falls on Henderson's 84 yd TD. “We had six or seven series in a row where we were very impressive and we uncharacteristically gave up the big play,” Gruden said. “Hopefully it gets everybody’s attention and we can do a lot better than that.”
2- TB OL play must improve and at home there is a good chance it does..
Basically the game @ NO was not played well and they still probably deserved win. I think Garcia's benching has alot to do with the final sequence . They get it to the NO 28 but Garcia takes a sack on 1st down and then after a 3rd down Incompletion gets picked off on 4th down...All this whikle NO had an 84 YD TD when Barberfell , when the Saints scored due to poor tacking on Reggie Bush score , and not sure about the Patten scored but 3rd and 3 to allow a 39 yd TD pass is not good. So big plays killed them regardless of why they happened .
I knwo ATL did alot of good things in week 1 but the element of suprise was high . Now TB off a LOSS will not take them lightily as we know what starting 0-2 does to your playoff chances. Huge swing when RYan on his 1st pass hits 60YD TD and after a few drives its already 21-0 . Its a huge mountain to climb on the road . Its not going to be that easy on the road especially for Ryan IMO . The pressure ws off him when Turner was getting chunks of yards now he made need to make more plays .......
TB did very well running the ball about 19c for 150 yards and you have 2 backs in Graham and Dunn who are part of the passing game which is good for Griese IMO.
TB WRs actually did something Galloway , Hillard and Bryant with Clayton or Stovall at 4th WR could actually give some production IMO...
Greise played well for TB in the past about 500 attempts he was around 66-67% completions and 3800 yds along 27TD and 19INTS but when he was at his best in year 1 with TB his 20TDs were against 12 INTS in 11 games. I think Griese is really blemishe by his stays in Miami and CHI were talent was reall thin not that TB is clearly better but it looks better on paper and he has enjoyedprevious success...
When it boils down it I dont see ATL running vs TB anywhere near likey they did vs DET even with a similiar cover 2 defense . AS Det was prone to games like that in that past and believe TB allowed fewest yards in the NFL. Plus Ryan is a rokkie QB facing a very solid veteran defense looking to make amends for sloppy play last week. I can have faith in the defense to correct mistakes like poor tackling since they have done it before and it was only week 1 . Huge thing I see looking at the ATL game how 2 big plays early 1st Q both60+ yds staked ATL to a 14-0 lead probably before DET was evenly mentally in the game ...It was 14-0 mid 1st Q and not even 12 minutes deep its 21-0..maybe ATL needed to shed itself of the Vick drama of 2007 ...ATL just seieed control early and stole the game IMO...took 13 plays to score 3 x !!
Looking at DET starting field position it was also pretty good all night usllay between 25-35yd line and if that gets worse on the road it can be an issue....
I think even down so much DET had chances and failed to make key plays when they had decent field position around the ATL 40 twice they lost big yds on 1st down on a sack and run for a loss plus they get the ball to start the 3rdQ down 21-14 and move it abit and Kitna gets picked taken deep into DET territory and they get 3 out of it ......
So really ATL controled the tempo of the game because it started fast , hit big plays , ran the ball down DETs throat which I think will be much tougher here and later when it needed to grinded the clock out with long clock chewing drives .....
They basically played perfect and just think it wont be that simple . FOr as perfect as they played still DET was never really dead in the water after its 1st TD of the game IMO.....ATL defense is very raw and expect a droppoff on the road ....
Home field just means to much....I dont see ATL winning this game SU and while it could come down to a late FG I think even a fairly competitive game is decided by 10-14 pts as TB will be able to get a late score to make it a 2 score game worst case....believe Abraham had 3 sacks and all seem to be at huge times and the lone INT was crushing......
Brooks and how they adjust if absent I will look at but gonna be tough to decipher before hand....
TB at home just tough IMO and ATL defense to soft:cheers:
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Trout, we are thinking alike:smiley_acbe:
Overreaction play of the week is Rams. Be patient because the line will get better right until gametime.. It is the perfect storm IMO..Happens every year in the NFL and is probably the best situational play in the league.. Its called Week one overreaction.. This one is especially attractive because you have a NewYork team and the public money will pour. Vegas will gladly take it.
Vikings are also a nice angle. They are catching Indy perfect and at home.. No ONE thinks it is possible for Colts to go 0-2.. This guy think they go 0-3 into the bye week.
good thread:cheers:
Only concern I have was losing bennett but kennison should be a good fit since he knows Saunder's system and they wont rely to heavily on now anyway more like a 3rd and 4th type WR . Think McMichael made some huge strides last week and he is capable . They should lean more on Jackson now on the ground and in the passing game.......
Losing Little on defense does hurt as well IMO .
Okay so the good part was the article on YahooSports about STL. Bulger said they wont to show everyone they are not that bad . It goes on to say that this team is different not hanging there head after that embarrasment and focusing on preparing for this game . COuld be smoke up our ass but the kinda thing you want to here ........
Rams’ Bulger: ‘I want to prove we’re not that bad’
By R.B. FALLSTROM, AP Sports Writer 12 hours, 28 minutes ago
ST. LOUIS (AP)—Surrounded by reporters seeking his take on the St. Louis Rams’ horrid opener after all those months of preparation, quarterback Marc Bulger found a comfort zone that was absent in the 38-3 drubbing at Philadelphia.
“I love being back here because I want to prove we’re not that bad,” Bulger said Wednesday. “We can be talking this time next week, hopefully about a win.”
Moving on and remaining hopeful is a good way to cope in the NFL. The Rams don’t need any flashbacks to last year’s 0-8 start and the 3-13 finish that landed them with the second pick of the draft, especially against the New York Giants.
Bulger invoked coach Scott Linehan’s “24-hour rule,” desiring that players quickly flush the previous game out of their system, win or lose.
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“We came in Monday, beat ourselves up and we tried to make as many corrections as we could,” Bulger said. “Today, we’re playing the world champs.”
That type of talk prevailed in the locker room before the Rams returned to the practice field for the first time since getting whipped at all phases of the game. It was the worst opening-day loss in the 71-year franchise history.
Tight end Randy McMichael, one of the few bright spots with five catches for 77 yards, said this is a more mature team than last year when an epidemic of offensive line injuries led to a wave of second-half fades.
“After a loss like that last year we probably would have gone in the tank,” McMichael said. “This year, everybody’s still positive, everybody knows it’s just one game.
“Luckily, we’re given 15 more games to get it right.”
Cornerback Tye Hill, burned for a 47-yard gain on the second play of the game and a 51-yarder in the second quarter, ended the opener in the nickel package.
“It was kind of odd to see the things happen the way they did,” said Hill, a first-round pick in 2006. “I know how hard we worked, and just for it to fall like that is disappointing. You take what you can from it, learn from it and get ready for next week because that’s all you’ve got.”
Linehan said Hill will be back in the lineup on Sunday. He also thought players did a good job of moving on in Wednesday’s practice.
“They did today,” the coach said. “The only thing you can really do to flush that out of your system is to go play good and win on Sunday. It was a very good practice and we’re going to have to carry it over.”
The biggest problem was a mistake-prone offense that mustered only 166 yards and committed six false starts spread among several players. Two of the false starts came in a span of three plays in the second half.
The mistakes Linehan referred to as “self-inflicted wounds” were a focal point of Monday’s team meeting. Bulger didn’t think noise was the culprit and said they didn’t use too many different snap counts, speculating that players were worrying too much about the blitz or other assignments.
“It was just a timing thing,” he said. “We were all out of whack.”
Operating in reverse so often, the Rams were 0-for-11 in third-down conversions while facing an average of third-and-10. That destroyed any shot at establishing what new offensive coordinator Al Saunders said is an offense based on rhythm and tempo.
“When you get down early, you’re just trying to make something happen,” Bulger said. “We can’t be third and long because then you’re one-dimensional, especially against a defense like the Giants or Philly.”
Bulger said effort level was not a factor.
“As long as you know you played your hardest, you prepared your hardest, you’re disappointed you lost and you want to beat yourself up. But I can look myself in the mirror and know I couldn’t have prepared any better or played harder,” Bulger said.
“Most guys in here did play hard. We didn’t play very well but the guys did play hard.”
:cheers:
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Good post Nut--
Also check the status of Ram 1st round draft pick WR Donnie Avery. He was inactive in game 1 but has been practicing this week.. I was very impressed with him in preseason game #3 vs Ravens.. Unfortunately for Rams backers, he has had the injury bug since he arrived.
Also thought this quote was intersting:
"To me, and I've been around here 10 years, this is the most talented team I've ever been around as far as pure talent." Leanard Little..
Also check the status of Ram 1st round draft pick WR Donnie Avery. He was inactive in game 1 but has been practicing this week.. I was very impressed with him in preseason game #3 vs Ravens.. Unfortunately for Rams backers, he has had the injury bug since he arrived.
Also thought this quote was intersting:
"To me, and I've been around here 10 years, this is the most talented team I've ever been around as far as pure talent." Leanard Little..
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Bennett has been a huge disappointment since his arrival in Stl.. Some say it was the beginning of the downfall.. Pretty soft. And I agree even as an old man Kennison is an upgrade..
If the Rams show poorly, do not be surprised if we don't see a mid season firing of Linehan..:14_6_14:
tee*dub
Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
Sunday was particularly difficult for rookie wideout Donnie Avery. Not only did his sprained right knee keep him on the sideline in Philadelphia, he was witness to DeSean Jackson’s big debut. Jackson, who has made it known that he — and not Avery — should’ve been the first wide receiver taken in the draft, piled up a game-high 106 yards on six catches, and also returned a punt 60 yards in the Eagles’ 38-3 win.
Missing the game was the worst part, Avery said. “Oh, yeah, yeah. Knowing I couldn’t contribute, it was tough on me,” he said.
As for the self-promoting Jackson, Avery took the high road and declined to fire back. “That’s his own opinion,” Avery shrugged. “If he was picked before me, I’d probably say the same thing.”
Avery practiced in full pads Wednesday and is optimistic about playing Sunday when the Giants visit the Dome. Coach Scott Linehan said that if Avery doesn’t make his debut then, he almost surely will next week in Seattle.
Great stuff Tee. To be honest I completely forgot about him because I realy didnt dig that deeply yet in the NFL. As well completely agree this game is huge for Linehan which is why I think a ML is in order . Covering this spread doesnt prove anything for them as a team and organization . As they said its the World Champs what better way to erase week 1 then beat the World Champs ? I am not saying the points wont matter but I kinda think we are gonna see the Giants cover the monster , inflated number or Rams win this SU.....I would recommend a 1st H ML play and game ML play to anyone who could make it and likes the Rams just makes to much sense logically IMO ....1st H because STL has been good at pissing away halftime home leads from what I recall.......
Food for thought but they have to show well here or there really are as bad as week 1 and 07....:shake::cheers:Great work tee
Food for thought but they have to show well here or there really are as bad as week 1 and 07....:shake::cheers:Great work tee
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Remind me to allot roughly a day or so when you do.
Tee, Trout, SN thanks for making this thread what it is. I'm not into college ball as much as the pro's and we have a great discussion here.
Since I broke my fucking ankle this morning, I will be laid up for a bit...so I will throw thoughts out on a bunch of the games that you guys haven't covered.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
With all this talk about Tampa and Atlanta. I put in a bet on the under. I believe with Ryan's 1st career NFL road game, and Griese playing instead of Garcia that the under is a play here. Obviously 38 isn't a ton of points, but I doubt Atlanta throws more than they did last week, unless they get down early. Which if they have Ryan throwing in the 25-30 range doesnt bode well for Atlanta. He looked good in week one, but there running game won that game for them. Tampa's D is quite a bit better than Detroits, even though as Sport said they run the same Tampa 2 scheme. With that being said I believe Gruden will pound his running game as well.
Atlanta's D looked good against Detroit, but Detroit was also rotating 2 new running backs as well as a new Zone blocking scheme.
Last year Tampa gave up scores of 3,14,3,10,24,10,3, and 31. Comes out to an average of 12.25.
Last Year Atlanta on the road scored 27,3,16,20,16,13,7,3. Comes out to an average of 13.
Now take that for what its worth, because Atlanta completely made over there team on offense in the off season. Either way when teams come to Tampa, Tampa plays stout D, and teams have a tough time scoring there.
Atlanta's D looked good against Detroit, but Detroit was also rotating 2 new running backs as well as a new Zone blocking scheme.
Last year Tampa gave up scores of 3,14,3,10,24,10,3, and 31. Comes out to an average of 12.25.
Last Year Atlanta on the road scored 27,3,16,20,16,13,7,3. Comes out to an average of 13.
Now take that for what its worth, because Atlanta completely made over there team on offense in the off season. Either way when teams come to Tampa, Tampa plays stout D, and teams have a tough time scoring there.
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Troutman
Calculated Risk Taker
:shake: I can agree with an under for sure.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Several reasons not to take the Rams. The players and coaches have been saying those kinds of things for a long time. "We're better than this" gets old after awhile.
Bulger is amongst the worst QB's in the NFL playing behind one of the worst Olines. Their defense hasnt stopped the run in 5 years. They have one of the worst head coaches. Haslett has been a bust for a DC. You're going to regret having your hard earning money on the worst team in the league.
Keep in mind...the Giants put a lot of heat on the QB...Rams don't protect. Giants have 3 very good RB's. Rams can't stop the run. Plaxico Burress is a beast of a WR...the Rams don't a have a good DB on the team that can cover. There's a reason why the Rams have lost 14 out of their last 17 games. In their last 2 games they layed down vs Philly to start the season and last year they finished the season by laying down to Arizona.
Giants are too much for this pathetic franchise. GL!
Bulger is amongst the worst QB's in the NFL playing behind one of the worst Olines. Their defense hasnt stopped the run in 5 years. They have one of the worst head coaches. Haslett has been a bust for a DC. You're going to regret having your hard earning money on the worst team in the league.
Keep in mind...the Giants put a lot of heat on the QB...Rams don't protect. Giants have 3 very good RB's. Rams can't stop the run. Plaxico Burress is a beast of a WR...the Rams don't a have a good DB on the team that can cover. There's a reason why the Rams have lost 14 out of their last 17 games. In their last 2 games they layed down vs Philly to start the season and last year they finished the season by laying down to Arizona.
Giants are too much for this pathetic franchise. GL!
I here ya Wise . I already said despite taking the pts I only really expect 2 outcomes and thats NYG winning by 10 + proving what you already know or STL winning SU . There is no pride in losing at home by a TD to the Giants so I only see 2 possibilities really. My issue is more the Giants arent that crisp and consistent to be laying such a heavy price . I cant take anyting from STL flying out East playing at 1 PM against a team who is better then NY most probably. Now they come home and they have never been good on grass and catch a bigger number then the road game but at home vs a weaker opponent .....STL will be a tougher opponent then Wash...
I dont discount your opinion just think NYG is not the type of team to lay this on the road . Eagles probably have more playmakers then NYG on offense to cover as well ....To many think oh NY played well on the road last year its relative though since they stunk at home . Just another example of how extremes create balance ....I expect people to revert to NYG play well on the road this year and thats just not reality . Its a biproduct of being so bad at home . If they couldnt win on the road they would have lost almost all of there last 10-12 games ....
I dont discount your opinion just think NYG is not the type of team to lay this on the road . Eagles probably have more playmakers then NYG on offense to cover as well ....To many think oh NY played well on the road last year its relative though since they stunk at home . Just another example of how extremes create balance ....I expect people to revert to NYG play well on the road this year and thats just not reality . Its a biproduct of being so bad at home . If they couldnt win on the road they would have lost almost all of there last 10-12 games ....
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Good points Nut. Sounds like Leonard Little isn't going to start after pulling his hammy vs Phil. Chris Long is providing nothing right now. He didn't even register a tackle in preseason. There's no pass rush at all without L.L.. Starting G Jacob Bell is out with a hammy. Pace has been dealing with an assortment of injuries.
On the Giants end of things. I thought they were fast and dominant on defense. I could see why they beat the Pats. Offensively, I think they will have things straightened out with the extra time they've had.
I think this game gets ugly and I see no reason the Giants don't win 34-10. Not sure if the Rams get to 10 to be honest.
The one intangible is the Rams haven't shown any life in their play. They were down right awful last season. They were terrible in preseason this year. Do you know in preseason their starting offensive unit had not scored a TD since 2005 preseason. They managed only 1 TD in the 3rd game this year. They offense couldn't get in the endzone again on Sunday. It's so bad in St. Louis that I see 0-16 being a possibility.
I totally respect your capping but I just can't see how the Rams stay in this game for 1 half. GL buddy!
On the Giants end of things. I thought they were fast and dominant on defense. I could see why they beat the Pats. Offensively, I think they will have things straightened out with the extra time they've had.
I think this game gets ugly and I see no reason the Giants don't win 34-10. Not sure if the Rams get to 10 to be honest.
The one intangible is the Rams haven't shown any life in their play. They were down right awful last season. They were terrible in preseason this year. Do you know in preseason their starting offensive unit had not scored a TD since 2005 preseason. They managed only 1 TD in the 3rd game this year. They offense couldn't get in the endzone again on Sunday. It's so bad in St. Louis that I see 0-16 being a possibility.
I totally respect your capping but I just can't see how the Rams stay in this game for 1 half. GL buddy!
Okay Marlo here is what I am looking at :
1PM:
Oakland +3.5 :
Its gonna be hard to play Oakland after last week but thats kinda of the idea . They faced potent offense that was just crisp . Sure they looked terrible but this isnt Denver its KC . Oak was owned by KC for a long time but it was always a competitive game decided by a TD or less until they finally won @ Arrowhead last year.
On the injury front most key injury seems to be losing Kwame Harris on the OL as his replacement Henderson has been terrible from what I read . D'Angelo Hall is questionable and could miss . After last week that might be a good thing because that kid needs a wakeup call. He looked like a fool in coeverage and then added soem dumbass personal fouls . More importantly Javon Walker will be active an dplay but probably not start . Also Kalimba Edwards should make his debut .
I think Oak has to be able to limit the KC run game . Now it dont look great vs Denver but alot of the ground yardage came after the air assault it wasnt like they established the run first IMO . Now when Herm Edwards says we nee dto get Jamal Charles more touches that speaks volumes IMO about Larry Johnson . Indicating he aint the LJ preinjury still . His stats last week sure werent good but there are other obvious reasons for that ...
Looks like rain and I have to think OAK has the better ground game at the moment . Really the key play on MNF was the fumble by Russell after Higgins great return after the TD. Another X factor is Johnny Lee Higgins in the return game for OAK.
Also KC is gonna use Thigpen @ QB along with Huard . I hate the two QBs system in the NFL well who doesnt . Anyway always seems like a TO waiting to happen.
Basically I thought Russell should some glimpses as the game went on . Was it because a blowout ? Well find out .....
GB@ Det :
Kinda feel like this will be a flat spot for GB . DET is nowhere near as bad as the week 1 showing . Simply the prefetc storm where everyone bought into the LIONS preseason hype and feel for the Falcon suck theory.
Situational I would imagine a mostly vet DET team is itching to get back on the field and play this game . Where GB is off a tough , hard fought win at home on MNF . So gonna be hard to get that some emotional level going for them. Grant is not 100% and losing a day of rest should hurt him.
Another problem for Green Bay on Monday was penalties. The Packers had 12 infractions that cost them a Week 1-high 118 yards - not a good sign for a team that was penalized for 1,006 yards last season, second-most in the league.
I was somewhat disappointd in GB defense cause it home vs a one dimensonal offense it seemed to be on the point of breaking afew times had Minny had a QB who could make a play . Also GB nursing some injuries on the defensive side of the ball ....
Det +3.5?? ML??
Tenny @ Cincy :
Both looked like crap in week 1 . If Albert Haynesworth doesnt play then I will be on Cincy just feel like he is the heart and sould of that defense. Palmer and the bengals played real well in dismantling Tenny at home last year ...
bears @ panthers :
Carolina here . Thought Bears played well enough to win but didnt exactly beat Indy who just was not prepared for that game. Panther shuge win @ SD and really outplayed them all day . Forte is a little banged up from the game as well . Without him making the plays the offense could be extremely limited .....
Indy @ Minny....we know I like Minny here ...
NYG @ Rams .....again we kno w my stance and I respect Wiseplayer's evaluation . Its more about the Giants inconsistencies and perception as a good road team that has be on STL. Think 11 straight away wins what a perfect time to lose 1 .........dont know who is covering Plax so over ??
NO @ Wash- Again see Hammer's thread we know I am on WASH.....
UNDECIDED on Buffalo @ Jax . Thinking over and JAx though . Simply not sole on Buffalo enough to see them winning this game but JAX is banged up ....
:cheers:
1PM:
Oakland +3.5 :
Its gonna be hard to play Oakland after last week but thats kinda of the idea . They faced potent offense that was just crisp . Sure they looked terrible but this isnt Denver its KC . Oak was owned by KC for a long time but it was always a competitive game decided by a TD or less until they finally won @ Arrowhead last year.
On the injury front most key injury seems to be losing Kwame Harris on the OL as his replacement Henderson has been terrible from what I read . D'Angelo Hall is questionable and could miss . After last week that might be a good thing because that kid needs a wakeup call. He looked like a fool in coeverage and then added soem dumbass personal fouls . More importantly Javon Walker will be active an dplay but probably not start . Also Kalimba Edwards should make his debut .
I think Oak has to be able to limit the KC run game . Now it dont look great vs Denver but alot of the ground yardage came after the air assault it wasnt like they established the run first IMO . Now when Herm Edwards says we nee dto get Jamal Charles more touches that speaks volumes IMO about Larry Johnson . Indicating he aint the LJ preinjury still . His stats last week sure werent good but there are other obvious reasons for that ...
Looks like rain and I have to think OAK has the better ground game at the moment . Really the key play on MNF was the fumble by Russell after Higgins great return after the TD. Another X factor is Johnny Lee Higgins in the return game for OAK.
Also KC is gonna use Thigpen @ QB along with Huard . I hate the two QBs system in the NFL well who doesnt . Anyway always seems like a TO waiting to happen.
Basically I thought Russell should some glimpses as the game went on . Was it because a blowout ? Well find out .....
GB@ Det :
Kinda feel like this will be a flat spot for GB . DET is nowhere near as bad as the week 1 showing . Simply the prefetc storm where everyone bought into the LIONS preseason hype and feel for the Falcon suck theory.
Situational I would imagine a mostly vet DET team is itching to get back on the field and play this game . Where GB is off a tough , hard fought win at home on MNF . So gonna be hard to get that some emotional level going for them. Grant is not 100% and losing a day of rest should hurt him.
Another problem for Green Bay on Monday was penalties. The Packers had 12 infractions that cost them a Week 1-high 118 yards - not a good sign for a team that was penalized for 1,006 yards last season, second-most in the league.
I was somewhat disappointd in GB defense cause it home vs a one dimensonal offense it seemed to be on the point of breaking afew times had Minny had a QB who could make a play . Also GB nursing some injuries on the defensive side of the ball ....
Det +3.5?? ML??
Tenny @ Cincy :
Both looked like crap in week 1 . If Albert Haynesworth doesnt play then I will be on Cincy just feel like he is the heart and sould of that defense. Palmer and the bengals played real well in dismantling Tenny at home last year ...
bears @ panthers :
Carolina here . Thought Bears played well enough to win but didnt exactly beat Indy who just was not prepared for that game. Panther shuge win @ SD and really outplayed them all day . Forte is a little banged up from the game as well . Without him making the plays the offense could be extremely limited .....
Indy @ Minny....we know I like Minny here ...
NYG @ Rams .....again we kno w my stance and I respect Wiseplayer's evaluation . Its more about the Giants inconsistencies and perception as a good road team that has be on STL. Think 11 straight away wins what a perfect time to lose 1 .........dont know who is covering Plax so over ??
NO @ Wash- Again see Hammer's thread we know I am on WASH.....
UNDECIDED on Buffalo @ Jax . Thinking over and JAx though . Simply not sole on Buffalo enough to see them winning this game but JAX is banged up ....
:cheers:
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Sport thanks buddy, It's going to be a dog day for me today. Its just a matter of who, what, and how much.
I've been high on Oakland and Detroit this week ( gulp) but I think there both in great spots here, many you have touched on already. Just heard this morning that Lane Kiffin may be on the hot seat. Al Davis may be the biggest fucking idiot in professional sports. With that being said I'm checking out the weather to see if that will affect any games played today.
I'm not completely sold on the Vikings yet. They know they can beat Indy, and as long as this game is in the Dome, (where in the past they can beat good teams) I'm just not sold yet.
I've been high on Oakland and Detroit this week ( gulp) but I think there both in great spots here, many you have touched on already. Just heard this morning that Lane Kiffin may be on the hot seat. Al Davis may be the biggest fucking idiot in professional sports. With that being said I'm checking out the weather to see if that will affect any games played today.
I'm not completely sold on the Vikings yet. They know they can beat Indy, and as long as this game is in the Dome, (where in the past they can beat good teams) I'm just not sold yet.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I keep thinking forget what you saw last week, and move on to this week. I think alot of favorable situation are upon us today Some totals that I'm looking at today.
Pitt/Cleveland 43.5 Over
Pitts offense looked good against a Houston Defense that couldn't stop them last week. Fast Willie Parker returned to his form of his first season by putting up 3 tds. Remember he was the NFLs leading rusher until he broke his leg last year. Cleveland's offense can't look any worse can it? Edwards dropped a few balls, and if DA doesn't improve after last weeks start, browns fans may be begging for Quinn
Skins/Saints 41.5 Over
Skins offense looked terrible against the Giants, now they have another week to prep and prepare, I anticipate we see more points from the Skins this week. With all of the defensive injuries for the Saints, Portis could spot 2 Tds in this game. I like the Saints this year to score, the loss of Colston hurts, but Bree's is a QB that has always made apple pie out of horse shit. I expect a TD out of Bush, Meechem, and Shockey today. Throw in another TD on the ground.
GB/Detroit 45 not sure if this will be a over or under
Have a gut feeling this game could be a dogfight as well as a shootout. I know GB will run the ball alot more this week. But who will it be Brandon Jackson or Grant. Jackson looked like shit, and Yeah Grant averaged 7.7 ypc last week, but 54 of that came on a long run. Detroits run defense isn't even close to what Minny's is. Green Bay's from 7 are good, but there is a drop off in there pass D. Kitna has to many playmakers at the WR corps for the CB of Green Bay. If you watched the game last week GB's CB's often held the Vikings Wr's. Megatron and Roy Williams are both big WR's and if they can create seperation and Kitna can hit them...Detroit may win this game SU.
Minn/Indy 43 Over
Minnesota for as much hype as there defense got in the preseason they failed to come up with the big plays to beat GB last week. Indy's defense looked terrible last week against Chicago. Peyton looked rusty, and there is no doubt Harrison is a step or two slower. If Minnesota can get a couple TD's on the ground, and one big play on defense I expect Peyton to have atleast 2 TD's today. We might have a shot at this over. The Colts are used to playing in a dome, and they have alot of questions to answer there critics this week. The same exact thing can be said for the Vikings defense.
Denver/SD 45.5
Favorite total on the Board. Cutler is no doubt right now the best QB of his draft. He picked apart the Raiders D, that was suppose to be improved. He also gets Marshall back this week. Last Year the Chargers Defense ranked 14th against the pass. Denvers defense has there issues against the running back. LT could have a field day here. Over has soared ATS at Invesco, and SD backs that up with a huge over record on the road.
Pitt/Cleveland 43.5 Over
Pitts offense looked good against a Houston Defense that couldn't stop them last week. Fast Willie Parker returned to his form of his first season by putting up 3 tds. Remember he was the NFLs leading rusher until he broke his leg last year. Cleveland's offense can't look any worse can it? Edwards dropped a few balls, and if DA doesn't improve after last weeks start, browns fans may be begging for Quinn
Skins/Saints 41.5 Over
Skins offense looked terrible against the Giants, now they have another week to prep and prepare, I anticipate we see more points from the Skins this week. With all of the defensive injuries for the Saints, Portis could spot 2 Tds in this game. I like the Saints this year to score, the loss of Colston hurts, but Bree's is a QB that has always made apple pie out of horse shit. I expect a TD out of Bush, Meechem, and Shockey today. Throw in another TD on the ground.
GB/Detroit 45 not sure if this will be a over or under
Have a gut feeling this game could be a dogfight as well as a shootout. I know GB will run the ball alot more this week. But who will it be Brandon Jackson or Grant. Jackson looked like shit, and Yeah Grant averaged 7.7 ypc last week, but 54 of that came on a long run. Detroits run defense isn't even close to what Minny's is. Green Bay's from 7 are good, but there is a drop off in there pass D. Kitna has to many playmakers at the WR corps for the CB of Green Bay. If you watched the game last week GB's CB's often held the Vikings Wr's. Megatron and Roy Williams are both big WR's and if they can create seperation and Kitna can hit them...Detroit may win this game SU.
Minn/Indy 43 Over
Minnesota for as much hype as there defense got in the preseason they failed to come up with the big plays to beat GB last week. Indy's defense looked terrible last week against Chicago. Peyton looked rusty, and there is no doubt Harrison is a step or two slower. If Minnesota can get a couple TD's on the ground, and one big play on defense I expect Peyton to have atleast 2 TD's today. We might have a shot at this over. The Colts are used to playing in a dome, and they have alot of questions to answer there critics this week. The same exact thing can be said for the Vikings defense.
Denver/SD 45.5
Favorite total on the Board. Cutler is no doubt right now the best QB of his draft. He picked apart the Raiders D, that was suppose to be improved. He also gets Marshall back this week. Last Year the Chargers Defense ranked 14th against the pass. Denvers defense has there issues against the running back. LT could have a field day here. Over has soared ATS at Invesco, and SD backs that up with a huge over record on the road.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Raiders +3.5
Have liked this play all week. Will take the points with 2 teams that are both equally bad. Enough has been discussed in the thread about this game.
Detroit +3
Big game for GB last week where they won and covered. Now Rodgers has to go on the road. Have leaned with Detroit all week, and will bite on them. Detroit will play better than they did last week. Key stat Detroits coach is 1-7 ATS vs divisional opponents. Today he goes 2-7.
Panthers -3
Situational handicapping 101. Bears went into Indy and beat up on them. They got there revenge from the Super Bowl 2 years ago. Carolina doesn't have the playmakers Indy has, but there defense is quite better. With Delhomme at the helm, I have faith in Carolina winning and covering. Chicago is in for a letdown spot, and starting out the season 1-1 with the this roadtrip that should be a success for them.
Have liked this play all week. Will take the points with 2 teams that are both equally bad. Enough has been discussed in the thread about this game.
Detroit +3
Big game for GB last week where they won and covered. Now Rodgers has to go on the road. Have leaned with Detroit all week, and will bite on them. Detroit will play better than they did last week. Key stat Detroits coach is 1-7 ATS vs divisional opponents. Today he goes 2-7.
Panthers -3
Situational handicapping 101. Bears went into Indy and beat up on them. They got there revenge from the Super Bowl 2 years ago. Carolina doesn't have the playmakers Indy has, but there defense is quite better. With Delhomme at the helm, I have faith in Carolina winning and covering. Chicago is in for a letdown spot, and starting out the season 1-1 with the this roadtrip that should be a success for them.
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Thanks T. I noticed it is suppose to start this afternoon. I will keep my eye on this afternoon, and see what happens. If it is storming, I will more than likely buy out.
How you did do Marlo??
There was some absolutely crazy shit going on today . The early games for the most part couldnt pull out any of the close dogs ...losing Minny , Det and STL...
First while I felt I acknowledged there was only 2 ways the Rams game would play out being either NYG wins by DDs or STL wins SU(or loses in OT or a late FG-down to the wire type game) have to say Wiseplayer was correct STL was great at self destructing . Felt okay down 20-13 about 10 to play just hoped for 1 stop and though it was all good instead 3 TDS allowed in 10 minutes .....
I dont think there was a worst ending then DET . Fight all the way back get the lead 25-24 7 to play and okay they are down 2 with 5 to play and they also allow3 TDS in 5 minutes !! Holy Shit !! Granted 2 were pick 6s but thats amazing to be leading with 7 minutes and lose by mnearly 4 TDS !!
At 4 pm got the breaks though ..huge on TB but also had 2nd H under as well as ATL TT und and TB TT over ....1st goal at the 4 17-6 game and TB held them to 3 and Graham broke a 68 yder ........just all meant to me but nice to on the ride ...
and even Had SD +1.5 ...
The best hit was SF and ML plus SF and Over in the 2nd H .......started off down but went crazy at 4.....
Looks like CLE and UND for me plus 1st Q Browns I think:cheers:
There was some absolutely crazy shit going on today . The early games for the most part couldnt pull out any of the close dogs ...losing Minny , Det and STL...
First while I felt I acknowledged there was only 2 ways the Rams game would play out being either NYG wins by DDs or STL wins SU(or loses in OT or a late FG-down to the wire type game) have to say Wiseplayer was correct STL was great at self destructing . Felt okay down 20-13 about 10 to play just hoped for 1 stop and though it was all good instead 3 TDS allowed in 10 minutes .....
I dont think there was a worst ending then DET . Fight all the way back get the lead 25-24 7 to play and okay they are down 2 with 5 to play and they also allow3 TDS in 5 minutes !! Holy Shit !! Granted 2 were pick 6s but thats amazing to be leading with 7 minutes and lose by mnearly 4 TDS !!
At 4 pm got the breaks though ..huge on TB but also had 2nd H under as well as ATL TT und and TB TT over ....1st goal at the 4 17-6 game and TB held them to 3 and Graham broke a 68 yder ........just all meant to me but nice to on the ride ...
and even Had SD +1.5 ...
The best hit was SF and ML plus SF and Over in the 2nd H .......started off down but went crazy at 4.....
Looks like CLE and UND for me plus 1st Q Browns I think:cheers:
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Thanks man, but all the credit on that one goes to a guy by the name of TEEDUB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So insane ..I am actually interested in reading the game recaps . It was the perfect storm for me at 4 ...think I went 15-1 and hit 2 small parlays ...one loss was Over 36.5 Jets . Most of it though was 2nd H and props . Hit I think 4 team totals ...but nice to catch a +240ML...forced some early 1st H plays as woke up late and just played what looked interesting cost me 4 units though and though I went 3-3 early lost a round robin and some of the Dogs had some ML as well ...so was definetly down some ........
BOL:cheers:
Cle as well took it +7.5 after it got bumped to 6.5 late ...some quarter and half plays as well CLe / under types...
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
Bought out of everything except for a unit on the over tonight, Tdot hit me up on this, this morning.
4pms saved my ass, but I noticed something. They have been putting out some pretty small totals in the 2nd halfs the last 2 weeks.
You hit that Tampa game on the head. Both Turner and Ryan got a wake up call today.
4pms saved my ass, but I noticed something. They have been putting out some pretty small totals in the 2nd halfs the last 2 weeks.
You hit that Tampa game on the head. Both Turner and Ryan got a wake up call today.
With 2nd H totals you have to remember a few things before you judge there accuracy ....
1st is how the game total wuz bet for the game . Take into account what type of risk the books have on the game as well as bettors perception (sometimes its unclear or mixed)...
2nd is besides the game total what was the 1st H total so you have an idea what to expect for the 2nd H ...
3rd is the game situation .....
Really cant say I recalled any low 2nd H totals but which ones were you thinking ?? I may have missed something:shake:
Marlo
Check out my DAD BOD
I guess the two that really stood out were NE (17.5) and ARZ (19)
My thinking was that NE going into the locker room 6-3 was that these two teams have way to much talent not to score a TD a piece from both of them in the 2nd half. I noticed Belichik was pretty conservative in the 1st half, I have watched way to many NE games to know that they would open it up a bit in the 2nd half.
In AZ Warner was airing it out, and Miami wasn't stopping them. AZ doesnt have a great defense, so I figured Miami gets a score it was 17-0 nill at the half.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but I based my thinking on these on the points you made above.
My thinking was that NE going into the locker room 6-3 was that these two teams have way to much talent not to score a TD a piece from both of them in the 2nd half. I noticed Belichik was pretty conservative in the 1st half, I have watched way to many NE games to know that they would open it up a bit in the 2nd half.
In AZ Warner was airing it out, and Miami wasn't stopping them. AZ doesnt have a great defense, so I figured Miami gets a score it was 17-0 nill at the half.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but I based my thinking on these on the points you made above.
The NE game I actually did skeptically take the 2nd H Over thinking just what you said . There were alot of points left off the board.
Still the game total was 37 and NE was starting the backup QB that stunk and such in the minds of everyone . Plus both teams played unders last week .
I thought it was spot on to be honest . The 1st H was shaded low at 17.5 so really would have expected somewhere to be 19.5 but with such a low scoring 1st H only 9 pts I thougt 17.5 made sense...
the Miami game applies another a rule . games involving shutouts especially lopsided games actually tend to get shader even a tad more then normal ...would have expected about 20 there but I guess since it was a shutout the sort of fucked with and put out 18.5 or 19 ...they might have felt they would have been swampd on a whole number like 20......
I guess all I can say is you have to remember what the 2nd H total should be and know by the how the 1st played out its gonna be within a FG of that .....
Still the game total was 37 and NE was starting the backup QB that stunk and such in the minds of everyone . Plus both teams played unders last week .
I thought it was spot on to be honest . The 1st H was shaded low at 17.5 so really would have expected somewhere to be 19.5 but with such a low scoring 1st H only 9 pts I thougt 17.5 made sense...
the Miami game applies another a rule . games involving shutouts especially lopsided games actually tend to get shader even a tad more then normal ...would have expected about 20 there but I guess since it was a shutout the sort of fucked with and put out 18.5 or 19 ...they might have felt they would have been swampd on a whole number like 20......
I guess all I can say is you have to remember what the 2nd H total should be and know by the how the 1st played out its gonna be within a FG of that .....
