smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
YTD: 39-31 +17.48
Sides: 14-13 +.65
Totals: 9-8 +0.60
Teaser: 6-3 +10.80
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 4-0 +4.00
MAC Play On
Overall 1-0 +1.00
Week 10 had 1 MAC play:
Play On: LIONS +10.5 SU WINNER
MAC plays are now 5-0 ATS this season.
Week 11 MAC plays:
Fade: KANSAS CITY (+55) L4
Play on: GREEN BAY (-46.5) L4
This week’s MAC chart splits the league down the middle. 16 teams in the negative, and 16 teams in the positive, no team sitting at 0. Moreover, we have the largest negative number in 27 weeks that I have been doing the MAC: -560. This is a product of the number of underdogs that won straight up in week 10. A bye-product of this 6 teams who had a + or – rating of 28 or more. Over or under performing against the spread by 4 TD’s or more is rare. To date there have been 512 games charted. Of those 512 games, only 18 produced a result of a under or over performance against the closing number of 28 or more.
Not bad, but when we break it down to the Play ON (teams w/ a NEGATIVE MAC) vs Play Against (teams w/ a POSITIVE MAC), there is a significant edge:
Week 10 teams with a MAC > -28: PLAY ON’s
BROWNS (-28) – Bye week 11
SAINTS (-34.5) – Bye week 11
RAMS (-31) - @ Baltimore – PLAY ON RAMS
Week 10 teams with a MAC > +28: FADE’s
BEARS (+31) – Wk 11 Play would be BRONCOS
WASH (+34.5) – Wk 11 Play would be PANTHERS
STEELERS (+28) – Bye week 11
As with any system, I would not advise playing these games blind. I use them as a TOOL in my NFL capping. Working on further drilling down into the results, to identify the situation surrounding the games that make up the results you see. For example, I want to know if the teams that make up that 11-3 ATS mark were good teams coming off a bad week, or bad teams hitting bottom, and then bouncing the following week. Further investigation is required, but given the MAC system hit at a 60% clip overall last year, and is 5-0 this year, I have enough confidence in the system to incorporate into my capping model.
MAC Buy and Sell Arrows: Based on ATS runs and the corresponding MACs. Games listed in no particular order, and as always, the situation and number have to be right:
BUYS:
SD
GB
NYJ
DEN
ATL
DAL
STL
NO
CLE
SELLS:
CAR
KC
MIN
NYG
CHI
JAX
Injuries of note:
NE (Carry from last week): DION LEWIS – yeah he is a RB, in New England, which is always tough to evaluate, but Lewis was more than. He was worked his way into the offense , as a guy who has plays called specifically for him. In his absence, we will see more BOLDEN and WHITE in the passing offense. Keep in mind that both had more time as RB in NE before Lewis, and Lewis beat them both out. Expect WHITE to play more of the “Lewis” role, and Blount to stay in his role. I think this is a pretty big blow to the PATS offense.
QB Changes that moved my power rating Needle
ROMO – Slight up till see him play
HASSELBACK – down against good teams
KENNUM – Slight up tick
OSWEILER – Upgrade
CHICAGO WR’s: Alshon Jeffery just can’t right, and Eddie Royal WILL miss again.
STL – ROBERT QUINN OUT
Considerations and Plays
Time Considerations have me listing just my bets this week, will chime in on thoughts on games if time permits.
SAN DIEGO +3, +105 (2) and SAN DIEGO +150 (1)
DENVER -1 (1.25)
3 team teaser (5.2 to win 4)
BAL +7.5
GB +11
CINCY +14.5
Back in AM with some detail.
:shake:
Sides: 14-13 +.65
Totals: 9-8 +0.60
Teaser: 6-3 +10.80
Parlays 1-2 +1.85
Prop : 4-1 +3.25
Half 4-3 +0.18
Team Totals: 1-1 +0.15
Margin Against the Close
The MAC system requires that a teams MAC score is either + or – 40 and if they are a fade team (score in the +) they had to have covered the prior week. If they are a PLAY ON team, they had to have not covered last week. The purpose of the MAC is to measure a team’s performance against the markets expectations.
Mac Fades
Overall 4-0 +4.00
MAC Play On
Overall 1-0 +1.00
Week 10 had 1 MAC play:
Play On: LIONS +10.5 SU WINNER
MAC plays are now 5-0 ATS this season.
Week 11 MAC plays:
Fade: KANSAS CITY (+55) L4
Play on: GREEN BAY (-46.5) L4
This week’s MAC chart splits the league down the middle. 16 teams in the negative, and 16 teams in the positive, no team sitting at 0. Moreover, we have the largest negative number in 27 weeks that I have been doing the MAC: -560. This is a product of the number of underdogs that won straight up in week 10. A bye-product of this 6 teams who had a + or – rating of 28 or more. Over or under performing against the spread by 4 TD’s or more is rare. To date there have been 512 games charted. Of those 512 games, only 18 produced a result of a under or over performance against the closing number of 28 or more.
- Record for betting either on or against a team that posted a MAC of +/- >28: 14-9 ATS.
Not bad, but when we break it down to the Play ON (teams w/ a NEGATIVE MAC) vs Play Against (teams w/ a POSITIVE MAC), there is a significant edge:
- ATS record betting on teams that posted a NEGATIVE MAC score of >28 the prior week (PLAY ON teams): 11-3
- ATS record betting on teams that posted a POSTIVE MAC score of >28 the prior week (FADE teams): 3-6
Week 10 teams with a MAC > -28: PLAY ON’s
BROWNS (-28) – Bye week 11
SAINTS (-34.5) – Bye week 11
RAMS (-31) - @ Baltimore – PLAY ON RAMS
Week 10 teams with a MAC > +28: FADE’s
BEARS (+31) – Wk 11 Play would be BRONCOS
WASH (+34.5) – Wk 11 Play would be PANTHERS
STEELERS (+28) – Bye week 11
As with any system, I would not advise playing these games blind. I use them as a TOOL in my NFL capping. Working on further drilling down into the results, to identify the situation surrounding the games that make up the results you see. For example, I want to know if the teams that make up that 11-3 ATS mark were good teams coming off a bad week, or bad teams hitting bottom, and then bouncing the following week. Further investigation is required, but given the MAC system hit at a 60% clip overall last year, and is 5-0 this year, I have enough confidence in the system to incorporate into my capping model.
MAC Buy and Sell Arrows: Based on ATS runs and the corresponding MACs. Games listed in no particular order, and as always, the situation and number have to be right:
BUYS:
SD
GB
NYJ
DEN
ATL
DAL
STL
NO
CLE
SELLS:
CAR
KC
MIN
NYG
CHI
JAX
Injuries of note:
NE (Carry from last week): DION LEWIS – yeah he is a RB, in New England, which is always tough to evaluate, but Lewis was more than. He was worked his way into the offense , as a guy who has plays called specifically for him. In his absence, we will see more BOLDEN and WHITE in the passing offense. Keep in mind that both had more time as RB in NE before Lewis, and Lewis beat them both out. Expect WHITE to play more of the “Lewis” role, and Blount to stay in his role. I think this is a pretty big blow to the PATS offense.
QB Changes that moved my power rating Needle
ROMO – Slight up till see him play
HASSELBACK – down against good teams
KENNUM – Slight up tick
OSWEILER – Upgrade
CHICAGO WR’s: Alshon Jeffery just can’t right, and Eddie Royal WILL miss again.
STL – ROBERT QUINN OUT
Considerations and Plays
Time Considerations have me listing just my bets this week, will chime in on thoughts on games if time permits.
SAN DIEGO +3, +105 (2) and SAN DIEGO +150 (1)
DENVER -1 (1.25)
3 team teaser (5.2 to win 4)
BAL +7.5
GB +11
CINCY +14.5
Back in AM with some detail.
:shake:
