NFL Week 11 (2012)

smh212

Awesomeitus Degenerate
Sides: 30-26 +2.22
Totals: 6-10 -7.39
Tease: 6-5 -1.54
42-41 -6.71 units

Just haven't gotten right this season. My total model is stinking the joint up, but it's been a proven winner over the years and I'm going to stick with it. Happy to see the mods are recovering from Hurricane database failure. I've been displaced the past couple of days and happy to be back with the family.

ARIZONA +10 (1.5)

My Line: Atl -8.5

An outright Arizona win wouldn't be shocking here because that's what Arizona does around this time of the year. Atl is an excellent home team, but don't be surprised if Arizona gives them a game today.

BROWNS +7.5 (1.25) and BROWNS +300 (.25)
My Line: Dallas -6.5

This is the kind of game Dallas loses. That being said, it's hard to overlook the fact that the Browns are playing better football as well. If they can figure out to score in the red zone (giving the ball to Trent Richardson may help), Cleveland will leave little D with a win. Forgot to mention: With Romo's teammate Phil Costa ruled out and Ryan Cook listed as doubtful for Sunday, guard Mackenzy Bernadeau (who has never snapped a ball in a regular season game) will probably have to fill in at center, the Dallas Morning News reports.

LIONS +3 (1) and LIONS +135 (.5)

My line: GB -2.5

The Lions were rolling. They had won 3 of 4 and lost a close one to Chicago. Sure they beat up on some bad teams, but fundamentally, things were changing. Then came the bump in the road against Minnesota where Det reverted to their grade school ways. Today, GB comes a calling, and I like the way Det matches up with GB. This one could mean the season for Detroit, and I think they have some fight left.

JACKSONVILLE +14.5 (1.5)

My line: Hou -12

Just hold your nose and bet it.

CAROLINA +1.5 (1.5)

MY line: Car -2

Carolina is the team whose numbers say they should be 7-2 and not 2-7. Signs of life in Washington last week are promising, and if Cam can keep the ball in the hands of his teammates they are actually pretty damn good. Tampa has been flying high, but it's time to come back to earth. Tampa has won 4 of 5, but are playing their 3rd roadie in 4 weeks. Should have lost last week to SD, this week they won't be so lucky.

RAMS -3 (1.5)
My line: Stl -6

I bet this as soon as it opened. I expect the Rams to blow the fucking doors off of the Jets today. IMO, you have two teams going in different directions, not just over the past week or so, but FUNDAMENTALLY.

Still working on some games. Will have some totals plays and the teaser of the week. Last week featured 2 teasers for 5 units each. I split them, and lost the juice. This week there will be one.

Suicide plays: I'm still alive in a multitude of of pools, and here is who I'm playing:

Rams
Pats

Good Luck.
 
Last edited:
Additions:

The teaser: Denver -.5 and Pats -2.5 (2)

Props: Alfred Morris ov 82.5 yds rushing. (.5)
 
Thanks Marlo. Couple off adds:

CHARGERS +7.5 (1.25) and CHARGERS +310 (.25)

My line: Den -6

It's hard to bet the Chargers. They are maddening. That being said, there season is on the line, they are playing a divisional rival (who I believe has reached the point where they have nowhere to go but down). I got over a TD....I gotta play it.

Atl/Az UNDER 44 (1.5)

My line: 42

My models says 24-17 and now word is that Julio Jones is a GTD. Atl will not be able to run the ball, so passing will be huge. I like AZ to keep it close and if that's the case than 24-17 sounds about right.
 
Late Adds...as the lines moved away from my numbrs:

COLTS +10 (1.25) and COLTS +380 (.25)

My line: Ne -8.5

I expect the Pats to win, but at duble digits, I think Indy has the confidence to make it a game.

OAKLAND +6 (1) and OAKLAND +215
MY line: Saints -4

Not sure where all the love for this one dimensional limited Saints team is coming from.

Good Luck.
 
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