smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
WEEK 10
Another winning week last week. Below is my breakdown of all games except Baltimore, Sunday nighter and Monday nighter. No interest in Baltimore game, and still working on other two. Plays on next post.
MAC = Margin against close. Negative numbers = underperformance against closing number, positive numbers equal outperforming the closing number. Negative numbers indicate did not cover, positive indicate did cover.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND a non-cover are 8-2 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> and a cover are 7-2 ATS Avg MAC = -8.2
Week 10 candidates: MAC of -40>: JETS (-57.5 mac L4). GIANTS (-44.5) Note SD (-49) will be a candidate next week.
Week 10 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be faded): MIA (+55.5 L4) –Note PATS (+96.5) will be a fade next week.
QUICK VIEW: Yardage Differential Last 4
Significant improvement or drop noted in ()
[TABLE="width: 106, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Offensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Defensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Yardage Differential
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#1 Indianapolis Colts (463.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Miami Dolphins (287.00) (+9)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (114.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#2 Philadelphia Eagles (451.00) (+6)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Seattle Seahawks (291.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 New Orleans Saints (102.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#3 New Orleans Saints (447.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Kansas City Chiefs (293.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Philadelphia Eagles (96.25)*(+12)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#4 Pittsburgh Steelers (425.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 San Francisco 49'ers (296.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 Miami Dolphins (87.00) (+5)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#5 Denver Broncos (418.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Minnesota Vikings (300.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Indianapolis Colts (77.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#6 New England Patriots (401.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Denver Broncos (304.50) (-5)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Washington Redskins (54.75)* (+10)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#7 Green Bay Packers (385.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 Buffalo Bills (311.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 San Francisco 49'ers (44.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#8 Washington Redskins (378.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Detroit Lions (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Dallas Cowboys (43.50) (-4)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (374.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 New York (NYJ) Jets (317.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Pittsburgh Steelers (40.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#10 Dallas Cowboys (370.00) (-4)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Washington Redskins (323.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Jacksonville Jaguars (38.00)* (+3)
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Dropped out: SF – Entered: WAS Dropped: JAX,DAL – Entered: WAS, NYJ Dropped: NE,KC,SEA – *=in
Washington, despite the loss last week, enters the top 10 in offensive YPG and Yardage Diff. However, team is 1-3 ATS over L4. Sign of a team that does all the little things needed to LOSE.
On the other hand, the team with the best record in the league, ARIZONA, doesn’t make the chart. Sign of a team that does all the little things to win.
Dallas was the biggest loser. I think it’s safe to say that Brandon Weeden had a lot to do with it.
Week 10 injuries….do they matter?
San Francisco at New Orleans (Sunday): 49ers inside linebacker Patrick Willis has missed the last two games because of a toe injury and is questionable.
Conclusion: Chris Borland filled in nicely for Willis coming up with 15 solo tackles last week, the most of any player. But can he cover Jimmy Graham this week? Borland PFF grades: Wk 6 +3.6, wk7: -2.4, wk8 bye, wk9 +3.3.
Miami at Detroit (Sunday): Lamar Miller's shoulder injury from last week doesn't appear serious. He should be ready to play.
Conclusion: Lamar Miller is mediocre – More negative graded weeks than positive. Backups are not NFL quality. If Miller didn't play, the Lions wouldn't respect any play-action from Ryan Tannehill.
Pittsburgh at New York Jets (Sunday): Will Allen is replacing injured Troy Polamalu at strong safety for Pittsburgh.
Conclusion: Will Allen is terrible. Cut by Cowboys in 2013 (worst D in franchise history)
Chicago at Green Bay (Sunday): The Packers' starting guards, Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, are questionable.
Conclusion: Packers don’t run the ball anyway, but Sitton and Lang are Packs best offensive lineman on the squad. Backups JC Tretter is a center, and Lane Taylor is not an NFL player. Injuries should not be overlooked.
Carolina at Philadelphia (Monday): The Eagles lost guard Todd Herremans for the season, but get back guard Evan Mathis. Sanchez replaces Foles.
Conclusion: Evan Mathis is one of the best guards in the NFL. Replacements for Herremans are suitable and should get better as season goes on. Sanchez managed to throw two picks against Houston’s fourth string secondary. He had 2 balls that should have been picked. Shouldn’t be tested against Carolina, but Eagles need to run the ball now more than ever.
Dal -7 45.5 vs Jax
Dallas Play UP or Down to competition
Early line (before last week’s games): Dallas -10.5
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (52-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Tony Romo
Will not be 100% if he plays. Evidence of how the Dallas offense suffers is listed above in the yards per game tracker.
Weeden’s QBR was 7.5 last week (lower than Romo’s worst career game)
Brandon Weeden has lost 9 straight starts SU and ATS
Dallas +0.5 mac L4 (-12, and -8) L2, both non-covers, but Dal +1.9 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
Dallas 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in yardage Diff L4.
DeMarco Murray had his 8-game 100 yard rushing streak broken last week
Dallas LB R. McClain left game with knee injury in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Q
Jags improving (same theme last 3 weeks)
Jags have found a running game:
Denard Robinson:
Sunday: 17 carries for 94 yards
Last Sunday: 108 yards rushing
Prior week: 127 yards rushing
Jags D had held opposing offenses to 3 touchdowns the prior 4 games before giving up 4 TDs to Cincy
Jags typically have heavy crowd support in London
LB Justin Durant was lost for season last week, but Geno Hayes - Hayes yet to miss a tackle against the run in 2014; his 35.0 Combined Tackling Efficiency ranks first out of 22 qualifying 4-3 outside linebackers.
Jags did not travel back to Jacksonville – left directly from Cincy to London
Dallas rushing: #1 (153 yards per game)
Jags scoring: #32 (15.7 ppg)
Jags sacked 35 times, most in league.
Has vegas caught up to Jax?
Jags +17.5 mac L4 (-44 YTD). Jax -1.1 PR L4 VS YTD. First time in 4 weeks, this number has not been positive – signals possible end to Jags current ATS run. Had gone 3-0 ATS. Posted a -7 wk vs Mia (although outgained Mia), pushed LW against @ Cincy (vs close, covered if you bet early). Overall 3-1-1 ATS L5.
Summary:
Jax has the edge when playing in London. Even if Romo plays, he will not be 100%. Dallas of two straight losses, and locker-room blowup before last week between Bryant and Randle. Have to wonder if team is all there, as leadership has always been a concern. Injuries starting to crop up on Dallas, and team is very thin. Would not be surprised if Jax won SU, and they are a bet at 7 or better.
Det -2.5 43.5 (open Dal -3)
Top two defenses
Detroit’s defense is #1 in the NFL – both yards and points allowed
Miami defense is #3 in both yards and points
Detroit Trending Upwards
Detroit will be a rested and focused team off a BYE
and likely much improved on offense
with Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson back from injury.
Reports say the Johnson is 100% (out last three games)
When healthy, he’s averaged 110 yards receiving per game this season
Detroit’s chance to win games at their low-point …
Last game (vs. Atlanta): 2.2% chance to win
Week before (vs. New Orleans): 3.3% chance to win
Detroit (overall since 2011): 22-34-1 ATS
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 5 of 22 times
Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 8-16 ATS
Lions have made only 9 of 19 FG attempts this season (no team missed 10 attempts in all of 2013…3 for 3 in London game.
(Det) NFL home teams off London win: 0-7 ATS
Detroit rushing: #31
Detroit has yielded least TD passes in NFL (only 9 all season)
Detroit has overcome a 14+ deficit in L2 wins (vs NO, vs ATL)
Det +15 mac L4, but number skewed with +15 wk6 (17-3 win over Min as 1 pt dog). Lack of convincing wins, reflected in PR. Det -1.9 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
Miami Trending Downward
Coach Philbin’s father passed away before last week’s game, and Miami played with lots of passion for him. Letdown quite possible.
Last 3 weeks, Miami has a 10-1 net +9 turnover edge which is unlikely to continue (18-12 YTD for net +6). Miami +4 turnover edge over SD last week
Tannehill with his best career QBR last week (his 3 best QBRs have been achieved in last 5 games)
Miami 441 yards; SD 178
Last week vs. Miami, San Diego did not cross midfield after first possession
Road team in Miami games 61-41 ATS
Miami passing defense: #2
Miami passing defense (opponent QB rating): #2
Miami passing defense (yards per attempt): #1
Miami passing yards per attempt: #28
Miami: 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential in NFL (+489)
Miami: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential L4 (+87)
Miami #1 Def yard/game L4 (287)
Mia mac +55.5 L4 (+49 season). Miami largest jump in PR
Summary:
All signs point to Miami being overvalued. They fall into the MAC system, and are off a 30+ win w/ emotional ties. Going on the road to play in the dome, against a 6-2 team in Detroit. Det -2.5 up to -3 is a BET.
KC -1 42 vs Buf
KC Hot
6-1 ATS L7 (+85.5 mac over this period). League best +66.5 mac for the year. One of only two teams (Balt) with a mac >60.
KC has had a great run on the road: Last 13 road games, Chiefs have lost only ONCE against the spread
Andy Reid has excelled away from home
covering an amazing 63% of road games in his career
Alex Smith last 50 games as a starter: 36-13-1 SU
KC has ZERO touchdowns thrown to WRs
KC net PR has jumped +3.6 over last 3 weeks. PR increase of net 7 since week 2.
Hard to put KC in elite company: YTD: 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in schedule difficulty. KC only 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS against teams with a 60% winning % or better since Reid took over team in 2013. Only second time since Reid era that KC has been installed as road favorite. Both times KC only -1.
Last week: NYJ outgained KC by 55 yards
Kansas City defense: #5
Kansas City scoring defense: #2
Kansas City pass defense: #1 (only team giving up less than 200 yards per game)
Max effort expected from Buffalo
Off a bye and with a genuine sense of revenge on the part of the Bills
for the tough loss against KC last season (Lost 23-13 at home as 5 pt dog. Out fd KC 25-15, 470-210 yardage diff in favor of Buff)
Bills lost top two RBs recently: First game after injury … Bills rushing: 32 attempts for 67 yards (2.1 ypr)
Last game against NYJ: Kyle Orton threw 4 TDs on only 17 attempted passes.
Vs NYJ: On plays on which Watkins did not catch a pass the Buffalo offense checked in at a tick under 2.5 per snap. Orton had been sacked 11.5 percent more often than any other starting QB … Orton dropped back 21 times, and four of them ended in sacks. He has now been sacked on 10.8 percent of all pass plays, yet the Bills are 3-1 with him as the starter. KC 18 sacks L5, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in league. Buff allowed 19 sacks last 5, 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL.
Orton’s last 35 starts: 11-24 straight-up
Buffalo’s defense has 28 sacks, second most in NFL
Buf mar +9 L4, +24 on season. Buf+3.4 NET PR L4 vs overall.
Summary:
Line is about right. Game should be a PK. Enough evidence to make a case for either club,. Would play either team at +3 or better.
SF @ NO -5 49 (open No -3.5)
Saints offense: #2 /San Fran defense: #2
SAINTS AT HOME
Last 21 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have lost ONLY ONCE against the spread (19-1-1)
Since the start of last season, Drew Brees at home: 34 TDs, 6 INTs
Early line (before last weekss games): Saints -3
Noon CT (10 am PT) kickoff
Saints with Coach Payton: 27-15-1 ATS last 43 games
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered ONLY 7 of 45 games
Last week Saints targeted Jimmy Graham 7 times for 7 completions
Saints last week 27 first downs vs. Carolina (yielding only 15)
Saints extra rest/prep off Thursday game
Saints: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best yardage differential in NFL (+528), #2 overall L4 (+102.25)
Saint +30 mac L4, -5 mac on the season. Saints covered L3 (+35 mac). Saints +2.4 NET PR L4 vs season. Saints steady improvement from week 5 on.
SF:
After San Fran lose as favorite, lost next game against the spread only 2 of 18 times
Coach Harbaugh has lost 14 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only four times (this trend continued on Sunday, but SF still lost the game)
(49ers) NFC West teams as underdogs: 25-13-1 ATS
San Fran sacked 27 times, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] most in league. OFFENSIVE LINE NOT THE LINE IT ONCE WAS.
SF has yielded 14 sacks last 2 games
Rams sacked SF 6 times in the first half … matching the team’s total FOR THE SEASON. 8 sacks overall in the game.
SF 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in rushing yards per game on the season at 119 per. Over L4 SF 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in rushing at 100 per. Sign that SF is getting away from what they have done best.
Many reports of SF being a disjointed team. Well known that Harbaugh and front office do not get along, but now it seems to be spilling into locker room. Note that OC Roman not available at press conference following Rams loss.
SF mac -19 L4, -17 mac prior. -0.5 NET PR VS CLOSE, but, -4.3 NET PR accumulation over L3. Team trending downward when compared to rest of NFL.
Summary:
Normally, this would be a spot where I would look to back SF. However, I believe the off the field concerns are real. Moreover, the offensive line is a mess, and the team seems to have lost their identity. The Saints have found their identity. It’s Saints or nothing in this one.
Pitt -3.5 47 @ Jets
NFL Team never as good as their best
Pittsburgh’s record setting offense run will inevitably slow down
Steelers have best QB passer rating in NFL this season
Pitt offense #3
Pitt on Road
Steelers on road: 10-19 ATS streak
First road game, after 3 straight at home. Coinciding with current 3-0 ATS streak.
Pitt primed for a letdown game.
Steelers as road favorite: 3-9 ATS
(Pitt) NFL teams off 3 straight home games, favored on road by FG or more vs. non-division opponent: 3-18 ATS (via playbook)
Pitt +25 mac L4, now +17.5 for season. Pitt +3.4 NET PR L4 vs ytd.
JETS:
Jets offensive has serious speed threat with Vick, Harvin, and Johnson on the field at the same time.
13 of last 14 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Jets have a positive yardage differential (+44 yards is 15[SUP]th[/SUP] best in NFL)
Last week: Jets outgained KC by 55 yards
Last week: Jets Percy Harvin: 11 catches for 129 yards
Jets passing: #32 (184 yards per game)
Jets passing yards per attempt: #32
Jets TD passes: #31 (8 in total)
Jets have lowest QB passer rating in NFL
Jets defense has yielded the highest QB passer rating in NFL
Jets scoring defense: #31
Jets have yielded 24 TD passes, most in NFL
Jets have intercepted only 1 pass, least in NFL
Jets -15 turnover margin worst in NFL (no other team worse than -10)
Jets -57.5 mac L4 makes them a mac system play (see top of doc). Jets NET PR L4 is EVEN.
Summary
My numbers indicate that Pitt has peaked statistically, and is very close to peaking against the closing number. The Jets have bottomed out. Game is a situational bettors dream. Play is JETS +4.
Atl -3 46.5 (open TB -1 44.5, biggest move of week)
Falcons only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] team with 2-6 record to be road favorite since 2000
Unusual Action
Public and sharps both on Falcons. Line move of 4 points, and it looks like game is going to close on the key number of “3”.
Monster Trend
NFL road favorites off a bye …
49-16 over the last 14 seasons that’s 75% winners
TAMPA:
Tampa has been outgained in 10 of its last 11 games
McCown first start since week 2. I believe Glennon is a better QB than McCown.
Tampa one of the worst home field advantages in the league
Tampa at home: 13-34 ATS at home
As a home underdog: 5-21 against the spread
Tampa Bay has 5 losses by six points or less this season
Road team in Tampa games this season: 7-1 ATS
Bucs have covered 9 straight November games
TB’s O has only 20 or more points TWICE this season (9/28 @ Pitt, and 10/5 @ NO)
Last week, Tampa lead at halftime for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time this season
Tampa outgained Browns last week … Bucs had been outgained 10 prior games
TB -25.5 mac L4. +4.5 NET PR L4.
ATL:
Atlanta crushed TB 56-14 on TNF in week 3. Atl closed -7. Since that game:
TB mac = -15
ATL mac = -55
BUT, no team has had a drop in my PR greater than TB (-12.6) since the start of the season, BUT, TB +4.5 NET PR L4 vs yd.
Falcons O-line hit by injury, but has had 2 games w/ back ups, and now off bye. Unit should improve.
Only 29 attempts rushing in two games prior to the game in London. In that game: 26 attempts for 78 yards (3 ypc). Product of 21-0 lead (which they blew), or increase faith in Oline?
Ryan was sacked 11 times in those three games.
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 27-12 ATS last 39 (6-9 ATS last 15)
Falcons on road: 1-11 SU (lost last 5 by double digits)
Atlanta’s next true home game is November 23
Atlanta’s defense has only 7 sacks, least in NFL
Atlanta is only defense yielding over 400 yards per game (408)
Atl -36.5 mac L4. +13 mac prior 4. Atl -4 NET PR L4. Atl has had a decreasing PR in 4 of the past 5 weeks.
Summary
Too many variables in this game for me to bet. Had I been able to get ATL at +1, pk, or -1, would have played ATL. Don’t believe McCown is a good. Having not played since week 2, McCown needs to re-establish trust w/ WR’s.
Den -11.5 50.5 @ Oak
DEN:
38[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 39 that Denver has been favored
-11.5 is biggest road favorite for Peyton Manning since 2009
Broncos since start of last season: 21-6 SU (winning 20 times by a TD or more)
Denver with Manning: vs. teams with losing record: 14-5 ATS
Denver with Manning as a favorite 26-13 ATS
Weak Manning Bounce back?
Peyton Manning off 20+ point losses: 5-6 ATS (in his entire career)
Peyton Manning off loss as favorite: 16-21 ATS (in his entire career)
Peyton Manning with Denver vs. Oakland: 4-0 SU and ATS
Den +3 mac L4. -0.9 NET PR L4 vs ytd. Den 0-3 ATS first 3 games of season, -9.5 mac. After the bye, Den 3-1 ATS +16 mac.
OAK:
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962 (started that season 0-13)
NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 25-8 ATS (lost 4 straight ATS)
(Oakland) Winless underdogs (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS since 1992 (98-57-5)
Oakland: only offense gaining less than 300 yards per game (288)
Denver rush defense: #1
Oakland at home: 31-59-1 (since 2003)
Last week only second time this season Oakland has scored more than 14 points
Oak +0.5 mac L4. Oak +2.5 NET PR L4 vs ytd. Oak playing better since bye week.
Summary
Considering backing Oakland, the winless underdog trend hard to ignore. Den off poor showing in NE, should be focused on Oak, may wait to bet against when facing STL, expecting STL to get blown out this week, which would set up bet next week.
NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 25-8 ATS (lost 4 straight ATS)
(Oakland) Winless underdogs (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS since 1992 (98-57-5)
Az -7 44 vs STL
AZ:
Last 17 games
Arizona is 14-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points), Losing only 3 times against the spread
Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher for 18 straight gamesArizona threw an interception on Sunday – only their second of the season
Arizona outgained by 288 yards this season (#23 yardage differential in NFL)Cards at home last 10+ seasons (53-40 ATS)Arizona turnover margin: +10 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] best in NFL)Arizona passing defense: #32
Arizona rush defense: #3
Az +22.5 mac L4. Az+4.5 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
STL:
Rams injured and tired
Rams since bye:
at Philly
vs. SF
vs. Seattle
at KC
at SF
… Rams play 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game this week
Rams gained only 193 yards vs. SF
200 yards last week vs. KC
275 yards the week before against Seattle
Rams beating SF should help Arizona coaches to motivate team not to overlook Rams.
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 25-13-1 ATS
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [93-65 ATS]
Since 2011, 48[SUP]th[/SUP] team Rams have been underdogs (favored only 9 times)
QB Austin only 105 yards passing last week
Rams sacked SF 6 times in the first half … matching the team’s total FOR THE SEASON. 8 sacks overall in the game.
Rams scoring defense: #27
STL -10.5 mac L4. STL +4.5 NET PR vs YTD, despite losses, more of a result of schedule difficulty.
Summary:
Hard to imagine STL has anything left in the tank. Like AZ to win this one: 24-3. Betting AZ, and will look at AZ second half depending how the game goes.
NYG @ Sea -9.5 45
Only 5[SUP]th[/SUP] time since 2004 Giants underdog by 9 points or more
Giants Motivation?
After New York’s Monday Night beating
It’s reasonable to question the team’s motivation at this point
In Giants 5 losses this season, the average margin has been 17 points per game
with EVERY loss by Double Digits
Giants took big hit in PR after Monday, sitting at a season worst -6.67, keep in mind Giants terrible start. Current run is even worse.
NYG -44.5 L4. NET PR has dropped vs YTD for 4 straight weeks.
Seattle dominates at home
Seattle dominates at home
last 10 seasons … 68% covers
During Russell Wilson era at home: 15-7 Against The Spread [22-2 SU]
and
When playing a SECOND straight home game: 18-4 Against The Spread
Seattle’s locker room troubles do seem to be affecting the team’s play on the field, and seem to have more involvement with Wilson.
Seattle missing key pieces on defense due to injuries
Seattle QB Wilson last week: 17/35 for 179 yards (0 TD and 0 INT)
Seattle: 26-13-1 ATS overall last 40 games Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-12-1 ATS
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 18-7-1 ATS (since 2005)
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-26-2)
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
Seattle rushing offense (yards per attempt): #1 (5.1 ypr)
Seattle rushing defense (yards per attempt): #1 (3.2 ypr)
SEA -33 mac L4 (0-4 ATS), -5.4 NET PR vs ytd – third largest drop of any team this season.
Summary
Giants fit the MAC system. Seattle has played poor ball for a solid month now. Is this what they are now? Public will expect Seattle to bounce back and be the dominate team they were last season. Evidence suggests that time has passed. GIANTS are a play for me.
- Sides: 18-12 +8.30
- Totals: 7-12 -5.97
- Team Totals: 1-1 -.44
- Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
- Teasers: 5-6 -6.10
- Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
- 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total -1.10
- Parlay: 0-2 -3.00
Another winning week last week. Below is my breakdown of all games except Baltimore, Sunday nighter and Monday nighter. No interest in Baltimore game, and still working on other two. Plays on next post.
MAC = Margin against close. Negative numbers = underperformance against closing number, positive numbers equal outperforming the closing number. Negative numbers indicate did not cover, positive indicate did cover.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND a non-cover are 8-2 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> and a cover are 7-2 ATS Avg MAC = -8.2
Week 10 candidates: MAC of -40>: JETS (-57.5 mac L4). GIANTS (-44.5) Note SD (-49) will be a candidate next week.
Week 10 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be faded): MIA (+55.5 L4) –Note PATS (+96.5) will be a fade next week.
QUICK VIEW: Yardage Differential Last 4
Significant improvement or drop noted in ()
[TABLE="width: 106, align: center"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Offensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Defensive Yds Per Game
[/TD]
[TD]Yardage Differential
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#1 Indianapolis Colts (463.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Miami Dolphins (287.00) (+9)
[/TD]
[TD]#1 Denver Broncos (114.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#2 Philadelphia Eagles (451.00) (+6)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 Seattle Seahawks (291.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#2 New Orleans Saints (102.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#3 New Orleans Saints (447.25)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Kansas City Chiefs (293.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#3 Philadelphia Eagles (96.25)*(+12)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#4 Pittsburgh Steelers (425.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 San Francisco 49'ers (296.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#4 Miami Dolphins (87.00) (+5)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#5 Denver Broncos (418.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Minnesota Vikings (300.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#5 Indianapolis Colts (77.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#6 New England Patriots (401.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Denver Broncos (304.50) (-5)
[/TD]
[TD]#6 Washington Redskins (54.75)* (+10)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#7 Green Bay Packers (385.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 Buffalo Bills (311.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#7 San Francisco 49'ers (44.00)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#8 Washington Redskins (378.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Detroit Lions (313.50)
[/TD]
[TD]#8 Dallas Cowboys (43.50) (-4)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#9 Miami Dolphins (374.00)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 New York (NYJ) Jets (317.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#9 Pittsburgh Steelers (40.25)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]#10 Dallas Cowboys (370.00) (-4)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Washington Redskins (323.75)
[/TD]
[TD]#10 Jacksonville Jaguars (38.00)* (+3)
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Dropped out: SF – Entered: WAS Dropped: JAX,DAL – Entered: WAS, NYJ Dropped: NE,KC,SEA – *=in
Washington, despite the loss last week, enters the top 10 in offensive YPG and Yardage Diff. However, team is 1-3 ATS over L4. Sign of a team that does all the little things needed to LOSE.
On the other hand, the team with the best record in the league, ARIZONA, doesn’t make the chart. Sign of a team that does all the little things to win.
Dallas was the biggest loser. I think it’s safe to say that Brandon Weeden had a lot to do with it.
Week 10 injuries….do they matter?
San Francisco at New Orleans (Sunday): 49ers inside linebacker Patrick Willis has missed the last two games because of a toe injury and is questionable.
Conclusion: Chris Borland filled in nicely for Willis coming up with 15 solo tackles last week, the most of any player. But can he cover Jimmy Graham this week? Borland PFF grades: Wk 6 +3.6, wk7: -2.4, wk8 bye, wk9 +3.3.
Miami at Detroit (Sunday): Lamar Miller's shoulder injury from last week doesn't appear serious. He should be ready to play.
Conclusion: Lamar Miller is mediocre – More negative graded weeks than positive. Backups are not NFL quality. If Miller didn't play, the Lions wouldn't respect any play-action from Ryan Tannehill.
Pittsburgh at New York Jets (Sunday): Will Allen is replacing injured Troy Polamalu at strong safety for Pittsburgh.
Conclusion: Will Allen is terrible. Cut by Cowboys in 2013 (worst D in franchise history)
Chicago at Green Bay (Sunday): The Packers' starting guards, Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang, are questionable.
Conclusion: Packers don’t run the ball anyway, but Sitton and Lang are Packs best offensive lineman on the squad. Backups JC Tretter is a center, and Lane Taylor is not an NFL player. Injuries should not be overlooked.
Carolina at Philadelphia (Monday): The Eagles lost guard Todd Herremans for the season, but get back guard Evan Mathis. Sanchez replaces Foles.
Conclusion: Evan Mathis is one of the best guards in the NFL. Replacements for Herremans are suitable and should get better as season goes on. Sanchez managed to throw two picks against Houston’s fourth string secondary. He had 2 balls that should have been picked. Shouldn’t be tested against Carolina, but Eagles need to run the ball now more than ever.
Dal -7 45.5 vs Jax
Dallas Play UP or Down to competition
Early line (before last week’s games): Dallas -10.5
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (52-21 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Tony Romo
Will not be 100% if he plays. Evidence of how the Dallas offense suffers is listed above in the yards per game tracker.
Weeden’s QBR was 7.5 last week (lower than Romo’s worst career game)
Brandon Weeden has lost 9 straight starts SU and ATS
Dallas +0.5 mac L4 (-12, and -8) L2, both non-covers, but Dal +1.9 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
Dallas 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in yardage Diff L4.
DeMarco Murray had his 8-game 100 yard rushing streak broken last week
Dallas LB R. McClain left game with knee injury in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Q
Jags improving (same theme last 3 weeks)
Jags have found a running game:
Denard Robinson:
Sunday: 17 carries for 94 yards
Last Sunday: 108 yards rushing
Prior week: 127 yards rushing
Jags D had held opposing offenses to 3 touchdowns the prior 4 games before giving up 4 TDs to Cincy
Jags typically have heavy crowd support in London
LB Justin Durant was lost for season last week, but Geno Hayes - Hayes yet to miss a tackle against the run in 2014; his 35.0 Combined Tackling Efficiency ranks first out of 22 qualifying 4-3 outside linebackers.
Jags did not travel back to Jacksonville – left directly from Cincy to London
Dallas rushing: #1 (153 yards per game)
Jags scoring: #32 (15.7 ppg)
Jags sacked 35 times, most in league.
Has vegas caught up to Jax?
Jags +17.5 mac L4 (-44 YTD). Jax -1.1 PR L4 VS YTD. First time in 4 weeks, this number has not been positive – signals possible end to Jags current ATS run. Had gone 3-0 ATS. Posted a -7 wk vs Mia (although outgained Mia), pushed LW against @ Cincy (vs close, covered if you bet early). Overall 3-1-1 ATS L5.
Summary:
Jax has the edge when playing in London. Even if Romo plays, he will not be 100%. Dallas of two straight losses, and locker-room blowup before last week between Bryant and Randle. Have to wonder if team is all there, as leadership has always been a concern. Injuries starting to crop up on Dallas, and team is very thin. Would not be surprised if Jax won SU, and they are a bet at 7 or better.
Det -2.5 43.5 (open Dal -3)
Top two defenses
Detroit’s defense is #1 in the NFL – both yards and points allowed
Miami defense is #3 in both yards and points
Detroit Trending Upwards
Detroit will be a rested and focused team off a BYE
and likely much improved on offense
with Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson back from injury.
Reports say the Johnson is 100% (out last three games)
When healthy, he’s averaged 110 yards receiving per game this season
Detroit’s chance to win games at their low-point …
Last game (vs. Atlanta): 2.2% chance to win
Week before (vs. New Orleans): 3.3% chance to win
Detroit (overall since 2011): 22-34-1 ATS
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 5 of 22 times
Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 8-16 ATS
Lions have made only 9 of 19 FG attempts this season (no team missed 10 attempts in all of 2013…3 for 3 in London game.
(Det) NFL home teams off London win: 0-7 ATS
Detroit rushing: #31
Detroit has yielded least TD passes in NFL (only 9 all season)
Detroit has overcome a 14+ deficit in L2 wins (vs NO, vs ATL)
Det +15 mac L4, but number skewed with +15 wk6 (17-3 win over Min as 1 pt dog). Lack of convincing wins, reflected in PR. Det -1.9 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
Miami Trending Downward
Coach Philbin’s father passed away before last week’s game, and Miami played with lots of passion for him. Letdown quite possible.
Last 3 weeks, Miami has a 10-1 net +9 turnover edge which is unlikely to continue (18-12 YTD for net +6). Miami +4 turnover edge over SD last week
Tannehill with his best career QBR last week (his 3 best QBRs have been achieved in last 5 games)
Miami 441 yards; SD 178
Last week vs. Miami, San Diego did not cross midfield after first possession
Road team in Miami games 61-41 ATS
Miami passing defense: #2
Miami passing defense (opponent QB rating): #2
Miami passing defense (yards per attempt): #1
Miami passing yards per attempt: #28
Miami: 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential in NFL (+489)
Miami: 4[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential L4 (+87)
Miami #1 Def yard/game L4 (287)
Mia mac +55.5 L4 (+49 season). Miami largest jump in PR
Summary:
All signs point to Miami being overvalued. They fall into the MAC system, and are off a 30+ win w/ emotional ties. Going on the road to play in the dome, against a 6-2 team in Detroit. Det -2.5 up to -3 is a BET.
KC -1 42 vs Buf
KC Hot
6-1 ATS L7 (+85.5 mac over this period). League best +66.5 mac for the year. One of only two teams (Balt) with a mac >60.
KC has had a great run on the road: Last 13 road games, Chiefs have lost only ONCE against the spread
Andy Reid has excelled away from home
covering an amazing 63% of road games in his career
Alex Smith last 50 games as a starter: 36-13-1 SU
KC has ZERO touchdowns thrown to WRs
KC net PR has jumped +3.6 over last 3 weeks. PR increase of net 7 since week 2.
Hard to put KC in elite company: YTD: 14[SUP]th[/SUP] in schedule difficulty. KC only 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS against teams with a 60% winning % or better since Reid took over team in 2013. Only second time since Reid era that KC has been installed as road favorite. Both times KC only -1.
Last week: NYJ outgained KC by 55 yards
Kansas City defense: #5
Kansas City scoring defense: #2
Kansas City pass defense: #1 (only team giving up less than 200 yards per game)
Max effort expected from Buffalo
Off a bye and with a genuine sense of revenge on the part of the Bills
for the tough loss against KC last season (Lost 23-13 at home as 5 pt dog. Out fd KC 25-15, 470-210 yardage diff in favor of Buff)
Bills lost top two RBs recently: First game after injury … Bills rushing: 32 attempts for 67 yards (2.1 ypr)
Last game against NYJ: Kyle Orton threw 4 TDs on only 17 attempted passes.
Vs NYJ: On plays on which Watkins did not catch a pass the Buffalo offense checked in at a tick under 2.5 per snap. Orton had been sacked 11.5 percent more often than any other starting QB … Orton dropped back 21 times, and four of them ended in sacks. He has now been sacked on 10.8 percent of all pass plays, yet the Bills are 3-1 with him as the starter. KC 18 sacks L5, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best in league. Buff allowed 19 sacks last 5, 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL.
Orton’s last 35 starts: 11-24 straight-up
Buffalo’s defense has 28 sacks, second most in NFL
Buf mar +9 L4, +24 on season. Buf+3.4 NET PR L4 vs overall.
Summary:
Line is about right. Game should be a PK. Enough evidence to make a case for either club,. Would play either team at +3 or better.
SF @ NO -5 49 (open No -3.5)
Saints offense: #2 /San Fran defense: #2
SAINTS AT HOME
Last 21 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have lost ONLY ONCE against the spread (19-1-1)
Since the start of last season, Drew Brees at home: 34 TDs, 6 INTs
Early line (before last weekss games): Saints -3
Noon CT (10 am PT) kickoff
Saints with Coach Payton: 27-15-1 ATS last 43 games
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered ONLY 7 of 45 games
Last week Saints targeted Jimmy Graham 7 times for 7 completions
Saints last week 27 first downs vs. Carolina (yielding only 15)
Saints extra rest/prep off Thursday game
Saints: 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best yardage differential in NFL (+528), #2 overall L4 (+102.25)
Saint +30 mac L4, -5 mac on the season. Saints covered L3 (+35 mac). Saints +2.4 NET PR L4 vs season. Saints steady improvement from week 5 on.
SF:
After San Fran lose as favorite, lost next game against the spread only 2 of 18 times
Coach Harbaugh has lost 14 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only four times (this trend continued on Sunday, but SF still lost the game)
(49ers) NFC West teams as underdogs: 25-13-1 ATS
San Fran sacked 27 times, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] most in league. OFFENSIVE LINE NOT THE LINE IT ONCE WAS.
SF has yielded 14 sacks last 2 games
Rams sacked SF 6 times in the first half … matching the team’s total FOR THE SEASON. 8 sacks overall in the game.
SF 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in rushing yards per game on the season at 119 per. Over L4 SF 18[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in rushing at 100 per. Sign that SF is getting away from what they have done best.
Many reports of SF being a disjointed team. Well known that Harbaugh and front office do not get along, but now it seems to be spilling into locker room. Note that OC Roman not available at press conference following Rams loss.
SF mac -19 L4, -17 mac prior. -0.5 NET PR VS CLOSE, but, -4.3 NET PR accumulation over L3. Team trending downward when compared to rest of NFL.
Summary:
Normally, this would be a spot where I would look to back SF. However, I believe the off the field concerns are real. Moreover, the offensive line is a mess, and the team seems to have lost their identity. The Saints have found their identity. It’s Saints or nothing in this one.
Pitt -3.5 47 @ Jets
NFL Team never as good as their best
Pittsburgh’s record setting offense run will inevitably slow down
Steelers have best QB passer rating in NFL this season
Pitt offense #3
Pitt on Road
Steelers on road: 10-19 ATS streak
First road game, after 3 straight at home. Coinciding with current 3-0 ATS streak.
Pitt primed for a letdown game.
Steelers as road favorite: 3-9 ATS
(Pitt) NFL teams off 3 straight home games, favored on road by FG or more vs. non-division opponent: 3-18 ATS (via playbook)
Pitt +25 mac L4, now +17.5 for season. Pitt +3.4 NET PR L4 vs ytd.
JETS:
Jets offensive has serious speed threat with Vick, Harvin, and Johnson on the field at the same time.
13 of last 14 losses by Jets by a TD or more
Jets have a positive yardage differential (+44 yards is 15[SUP]th[/SUP] best in NFL)
Last week: Jets outgained KC by 55 yards
Last week: Jets Percy Harvin: 11 catches for 129 yards
Jets passing: #32 (184 yards per game)
Jets passing yards per attempt: #32
Jets TD passes: #31 (8 in total)
Jets have lowest QB passer rating in NFL
Jets defense has yielded the highest QB passer rating in NFL
Jets scoring defense: #31
Jets have yielded 24 TD passes, most in NFL
Jets have intercepted only 1 pass, least in NFL
Jets -15 turnover margin worst in NFL (no other team worse than -10)
Jets -57.5 mac L4 makes them a mac system play (see top of doc). Jets NET PR L4 is EVEN.
Summary
My numbers indicate that Pitt has peaked statistically, and is very close to peaking against the closing number. The Jets have bottomed out. Game is a situational bettors dream. Play is JETS +4.
Atl -3 46.5 (open TB -1 44.5, biggest move of week)
Falcons only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] team with 2-6 record to be road favorite since 2000
Unusual Action
Public and sharps both on Falcons. Line move of 4 points, and it looks like game is going to close on the key number of “3”.
Monster Trend
NFL road favorites off a bye …
49-16 over the last 14 seasons that’s 75% winners
TAMPA:
Tampa has been outgained in 10 of its last 11 games
McCown first start since week 2. I believe Glennon is a better QB than McCown.
Tampa one of the worst home field advantages in the league
Tampa at home: 13-34 ATS at home
As a home underdog: 5-21 against the spread
Tampa Bay has 5 losses by six points or less this season
Road team in Tampa games this season: 7-1 ATS
Bucs have covered 9 straight November games
TB’s O has only 20 or more points TWICE this season (9/28 @ Pitt, and 10/5 @ NO)
Last week, Tampa lead at halftime for 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time this season
Tampa outgained Browns last week … Bucs had been outgained 10 prior games
TB -25.5 mac L4. +4.5 NET PR L4.
ATL:
Atlanta crushed TB 56-14 on TNF in week 3. Atl closed -7. Since that game:
TB mac = -15
ATL mac = -55
BUT, no team has had a drop in my PR greater than TB (-12.6) since the start of the season, BUT, TB +4.5 NET PR L4 vs yd.
Falcons O-line hit by injury, but has had 2 games w/ back ups, and now off bye. Unit should improve.
Only 29 attempts rushing in two games prior to the game in London. In that game: 26 attempts for 78 yards (3 ypc). Product of 21-0 lead (which they blew), or increase faith in Oline?
Ryan was sacked 11 times in those three games.
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 27-12 ATS last 39 (6-9 ATS last 15)
Falcons on road: 1-11 SU (lost last 5 by double digits)
Atlanta’s next true home game is November 23
Atlanta’s defense has only 7 sacks, least in NFL
Atlanta is only defense yielding over 400 yards per game (408)
Atl -36.5 mac L4. +13 mac prior 4. Atl -4 NET PR L4. Atl has had a decreasing PR in 4 of the past 5 weeks.
Summary
Too many variables in this game for me to bet. Had I been able to get ATL at +1, pk, or -1, would have played ATL. Don’t believe McCown is a good. Having not played since week 2, McCown needs to re-establish trust w/ WR’s.
Den -11.5 50.5 @ Oak
DEN:
38[SUP]th[/SUP] game out time of last 39 that Denver has been favored
-11.5 is biggest road favorite for Peyton Manning since 2009
Broncos since start of last season: 21-6 SU (winning 20 times by a TD or more)
Denver with Manning: vs. teams with losing record: 14-5 ATS
Denver with Manning as a favorite 26-13 ATS
Weak Manning Bounce back?
Peyton Manning off 20+ point losses: 5-6 ATS (in his entire career)
Peyton Manning off loss as favorite: 16-21 ATS (in his entire career)
Peyton Manning with Denver vs. Oakland: 4-0 SU and ATS
Den +3 mac L4. -0.9 NET PR L4 vs ytd. Den 0-3 ATS first 3 games of season, -9.5 mac. After the bye, Den 3-1 ATS +16 mac.
OAK:
Oakland’s worst start to a season since 1962 (started that season 0-13)
NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 25-8 ATS (lost 4 straight ATS)
(Oakland) Winless underdogs (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS since 1992 (98-57-5)
Oakland: only offense gaining less than 300 yards per game (288)
Denver rush defense: #1
Oakland at home: 31-59-1 (since 2003)
Last week only second time this season Oakland has scored more than 14 points
Oak +0.5 mac L4. Oak +2.5 NET PR L4 vs ytd. Oak playing better since bye week.
Summary
Considering backing Oakland, the winless underdog trend hard to ignore. Den off poor showing in NE, should be focused on Oak, may wait to bet against when facing STL, expecting STL to get blown out this week, which would set up bet next week.
NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 25-8 ATS (lost 4 straight ATS)
(Oakland) Winless underdogs (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS since 1992 (98-57-5)
Az -7 44 vs STL
AZ:
Last 17 games
Arizona is 14-3 SU (losing only one game by more than 3 points), Losing only 3 times against the spread
Arizona has not allowed a 100 yard rusher for 18 straight gamesArizona threw an interception on Sunday – only their second of the season
Arizona outgained by 288 yards this season (#23 yardage differential in NFL)Cards at home last 10+ seasons (53-40 ATS)Arizona turnover margin: +10 (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] best in NFL)Arizona passing defense: #32
Arizona rush defense: #3
Az +22.5 mac L4. Az+4.5 NET PR L4 vs YTD.
STL:
Rams injured and tired
Rams since bye:
at Philly
vs. SF
vs. Seattle
at KC
at SF
… Rams play 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] straight road game this week
Rams gained only 193 yards vs. SF
200 yards last week vs. KC
275 yards the week before against Seattle
Rams beating SF should help Arizona coaches to motivate team not to overlook Rams.
(Rams) NFC West teams as underdogs: 25-13-1 ATS
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [93-65 ATS]
Since 2011, 48[SUP]th[/SUP] team Rams have been underdogs (favored only 9 times)
QB Austin only 105 yards passing last week
Rams sacked SF 6 times in the first half … matching the team’s total FOR THE SEASON. 8 sacks overall in the game.
Rams scoring defense: #27
STL -10.5 mac L4. STL +4.5 NET PR vs YTD, despite losses, more of a result of schedule difficulty.
Summary:
Hard to imagine STL has anything left in the tank. Like AZ to win this one: 24-3. Betting AZ, and will look at AZ second half depending how the game goes.
NYG @ Sea -9.5 45
Only 5[SUP]th[/SUP] time since 2004 Giants underdog by 9 points or more
Giants Motivation?
After New York’s Monday Night beating
It’s reasonable to question the team’s motivation at this point
In Giants 5 losses this season, the average margin has been 17 points per game
with EVERY loss by Double Digits
Giants took big hit in PR after Monday, sitting at a season worst -6.67, keep in mind Giants terrible start. Current run is even worse.
NYG -44.5 L4. NET PR has dropped vs YTD for 4 straight weeks.
Seattle dominates at home
Seattle dominates at home
last 10 seasons … 68% covers
During Russell Wilson era at home: 15-7 Against The Spread [22-2 SU]
and
When playing a SECOND straight home game: 18-4 Against The Spread
Seattle’s locker room troubles do seem to be affecting the team’s play on the field, and seem to have more involvement with Wilson.
Seattle missing key pieces on defense due to injuries
Seattle QB Wilson last week: 17/35 for 179 yards (0 TD and 0 INT)
Seattle: 26-13-1 ATS overall last 40 games Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 27-12-1 ATS
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 18-7-1 ATS (since 2005)
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (54-26-2)
Seattle D-line not as deep this year – which increases the chance of wearing down as the season progresses.
Seattle rushing offense (yards per attempt): #1 (5.1 ypr)
Seattle rushing defense (yards per attempt): #1 (3.2 ypr)
SEA -33 mac L4 (0-4 ATS), -5.4 NET PR vs ytd – third largest drop of any team this season.
Summary
Giants fit the MAC system. Seattle has played poor ball for a solid month now. Is this what they are now? Public will expect Seattle to bounce back and be the dominate team they were last season. Evidence suggests that time has passed. GIANTS are a play for me.
