NFL WEEK 1...Thoughts, Concerns, Season Over/Under Win Totals. Week 1 Plays...Please Step Inside. I Promise Not To Keep You For Long...

Vapster

Vapster

2024 CTG Supporting Donation Member
2022 And 2023 I Was Undefeated In Over/Under Win Totals For The Season... 2024, Not So Much... So Let's Go Back In The Day, To The WINNING WAYS!!!

First Off, I HATE JUICE!! You Gotta Lick It, Before We Kick It. You Need To Prove Your Juice Is Pure And Will Win Me Money...

Speaking Of Money...Odds Are Subject To Change...What Might Be Right For You, May Not Be Right Some...

A: As A Long Time Gambler, I've SEEN Things...Know Things... What Is The Flavor Of The Day?! Marble Fudge?! There Is ALWAYS A Team That You Didn't See Coming... They Excite You! Make You Root For The Underdog, Make Your Nipples Hard Just Watching Them... This Year They Are Grounded, Back To Life, Back To Reality. No Use Saying Sorry, Gambling Is Something I Enjoy, Flying High Again?!

No.....

Washington Redskkkkkk...Team?! I Can't Keep Up! UNDER 9.5 -115


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I'll Be Back For More...
 
No opinion on the Skins over/under myself Vap.

That schedule last year helped smooth into a playoff spot where they took advantage of a depleted defense in Detroit.

Humbling finish at Philly though.

GL this season. Excited to see what else you have!
 
After looking into it a bit more, I agree although not strongly enough to bet it. I think I will be fading the skins the first 2 weeks though.
 
Anybody who drops a pic of a Simpson's character deserves a reply.
I'll drop by with something when I get a minute tomorrow.
 
I think I got the okay to post this article.
If not, that's okay, just delete it.

A Different View on How to Bet Regular Season Wins​


A 10-Year Sample with a 90% W Percentage

There’s a standard way of handicapping Regular Season Win Totals for an NFL team.

First, you factor in personnel changes on their roster and/or coaching staff and estimate whether they’ll be a stronger team this year or worse than the previous season.

Next, you look at each team on their upcoming schedule and try to judge whether it’ll be a win or a loss. Then you add up the wins and losses, match your number against the number the books set their total at, and see if you have a large enough differential to make a play on the Over or Under.

While battling insomnia (and losing) one night last week I started thinking about NFL Regular Season Wins, and came up with a different way to approach it this season.

What if I set aside the standard handicapping methods mentioned above and instead I tried to determine which team will come in last place in their division, and then looked at how the last place team in their division did in the 10 previous seasons?

Did they go Over or Under their projected total?

As a test case, I chose the NFC East.

Here’s what I found:

Year/Last Place Tm/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Ov/Un
2015 Dallas 9½ 4 Under
2016 Philadelphia 7½ 7 Under
2017 NY Giants 9½ 3 Under
2018 NY Giants 6½ 5 Under
2019 Washington 6½ 3 Under
2020 Philadelphia 9½ 4 Under
2021 NY Giants 7½ 4 Under
2022 Washington 7½ 8 Over
2023 Washington 7½ 4 Under
2024 NY Giants 6½ 3 Under

Well, look at that.
In NINE of ten seasons the last place team in the NFC East finished Under the books number.

Seems like all you have to do is figure out who’s going to be the biggest loser, and you have a 90% chance of winning your bet on the Under.

Curious if this was an anomaly, I decided to look at the last-place teams in the other seven divisions last year.

Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Over-Under
New England 4½ 4 Under
Cleveland 8½ 3 Under
Tennessee 6½ 3 Under
Las Vegas 6½ 4 Under
Chicago 9½ 5 Under
New Orleans 7½ 5. Under
San Francisco 11½ 6 Under

Isn’t that interesting?
EVERY last place team came in Under their Regular Season Wins total. That’s 100%!

Nothing in sports betting is ever as easy as it looks, but it does seem that if you can figure out who’s going to come in last place, you’ve got a good chance of cashing a ticket on their Season Wins Total to stay Under.

To test this theory, I went back and did one more year, 2023.

Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Ov-Un
New England 7½ 4 Under
Cincinnati 11½ 9 Under
Tennessee 7½ 6 Under
LA Chargers 9½ 5 Under
Washington 6½ 4 Under
Chicago 7½ 7 Under
Carolina 7½ 2 Under
Arizona 4½ 4 Under

There it is again.
Eight cellar dwellers, eight Regular Season Wins Totals Under.

Like I said, nothing in sports betting is as easy as it may seem, but this method of handicapping is worth considering when you’re looking for a target for a Regular Season Wins bet.

Added note: The books survive because the books evolve. If you look at the season win totals for the teams expected to finish in last place this season they're all below the numbers from previous seasons.
 
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RBD said:
I think I got the okay to post this article.
If not, that's okay, just delete it.

A Different View on How to Bet Regular Season Wins​


A 10-Year Sample with a 90% W Percentage

There’s a standard way of handicapping Regular Season Win Totals for an NFL team.

First, you factor in personnel changes on their roster and/or coaching staff and estimate whether they’ll be a stronger team this year or worse than the previous season.

Next, you look at each team on their upcoming schedule and try to judge whether it’ll be a win or a loss. Then you add up the wins and losses, match your number against the number the books set their total at, and see if you have a large enough differential to make a play on the Over or Under.

While battling insomnia (and losing) one night last week I started thinking about NFL Regular Season Wins, and came up with a different way to approach it this season.

What if I set aside the standard handicapping methods mentioned above and instead I tried to determine which team will come in last place in their division, and then looked at how the last place team in their division did in the 10 previous seasons?

Did they go Over or Under their projected total?

As a test case, I chose the NFC East.

Here’s what I found:

Year/Last Place Tm/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Ov/Un
2015 Dallas 9½ 4 Under
2016 Philadelphia 7½ 7 Under
2017 NY Giants 9½ 3 Under
2018 NY Giants 6½ 5 Under
2019 Washington 6½ 3 Under
2020 Philadelphia 9½ 4 Under
2021 NY Giants 7½ 4 Under
2022 Washington 7½ 8 Over
2023 Washington 7½ 4 Under
2024 NY Giants 6½ 3 Under

Well, look at that.
In NINE of ten seasons the last place team in the NFC East finished Under the books number.

Seems like all you have to do is figure out who’s going to be the biggest loser, and you have a 90% chance of winning your bet on the Under.

Curious if this was an anomaly, I decided to look at the last-place teams in the other seven divisions last year.

Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Over-Under
New England 4½ 4 Under
Cleveland 8½ 3 Under
Tennessee 6½ 3 Under
Las Vegas 6½ 4 Under
Chicago 9½ 5 Under
New Orleans 7½ 5. Under
San Francisco 11½ 6 Under

Isn’t that interesting?
EVERY last place team came in Under their Regular Season Wins total. That’s 100%!

Nothing in sports betting is ever as easy as it looks, but it does seem that if you can figure out who’s going to come in last place, you’ve got a good chance of cashing a ticket on their Season Wins Total to stay Under.

To test this theory, I went back and did one more year, 2023.

Team/Book’s #/Actual Wins/Ov-Un
New England 7½ 4 Under
Cincinnati 11½ 9 Under
Tennessee 7½ 6 Under
LA Chargers 9½ 5 Under
Washington 6½ 4 Under
Chicago 7½ 7 Under
Carolina 7½ 2 Under
Arizona 4½ 4 Under

There it is again.
Eight cellar dwellers, eight Regular Season Wins Totals Under.

Like I said, nothing in sports betting is as easy as it may seem, but this method of handicapping is worth considering when you’re looking for a target for a Regular Season Wins bet.
Click to expand...
Great work and creative capping @RBD
 
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Thanks guys, just trying to think outside the box.
And hoping I don't get my ears boxed off for doing so, because here's the division that I chose to test the "Biggest Loser" theory on - the NFC East.
Here we go:

Let’s take a closer look at the NFC East and see if we can determine who’s going to be the Biggest Loser: Dallas, NY, Philadelphia, or Washington.

With four teams in the division, I have a 25% chance of being right. Let’s increase my odds by removing Philadelphia from the equation.

Philly won the Super Bowl last season.
NO NFL team has EVER gone from winning the Super Bowl to finishing last in their division the next season.
Eliminate the Eagles.

And then there were three: NY, Wash, and Dal.

Let’s look at Washington.
First-year head coach Dan Quinn took the Redskins (or soon-to-be Redskins again, if you prefer) from 4-13 and last place in 2023 to 12-4 and second place in 2024.

There are no major changes to their roster, though WR McLaurin is a holdout right now. They picked up Deebo Samuels so that’ll help (for as long as he stays healthy anyway, which usually isn’t very long.)

In 2024, QB Jaden Daniels completed 69% of his passes, a rookie record. It’s scary how much better he might be with a year of experience under his belt.
The books set the number at 9′ for Redskin wins this season. They may not surpass it, but they’ll certainly get enough wins to stay ahead of the Giants and Cowboys.
Eliminate the Redskins.

And then there were two: NY and Dallas.
My odds for picking the last-place team in the East have now gone from 25% to 50/50.

The Cowboys have a new head coach this season, promoting their offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to the top spot.

Dallas was an inconsistent 7-10 last year, mainly due to injuries (and the usual questionable play calling by McCarthy.)
This is the only team in the division that I see as a possible challenge to the Giants in the race to the bottom, but I’ll pick Dallas for third place and the Giants for last.
And the books agree as they set Dallas’ Regular Season Wins Total at 8′, a full three games higher than the Giant’s 5′.
Eliminate the Cowboys.

Now that I’ve determined who I think comes in last place, I want to look at some of the standard methods for picking a team for a Regular Season Wins bet – an analysis of their personnel and schedule.

A roster check of the 2025 Giants brings some bad news.
My biggest reason for taking New York to go Under 6′ wins last season is gone – QB Daniel Jones is now with Indianapolis.
But no worries, they’ve signed Russell Wilson.
To a one-year deal.
One. Year.
To quote Moneyball, “A one-year contract means there’s not a lot of faith there.”

They drafted a really solid prospect in Mississippi’s Jaxson Dart, but there’s no way they’ll throw him to the wolves in his rookie season, which means when Wilson fails, they’ll turn to offseason acquisition Jameson Winston, AKA “Mr. Interceptions.”
So yeah, no worries that their QB is going to hurt my bet.

Looking at the Giants’ schedule, I see the out-of-conference teams they’re matched up against this year are in the AFC West.
The West (KC, LAC, Oak, and Den) was the toughest division in the AFC last year, amassing a combined 40 wins.

In their own conference, they get the NFC Central (Det, Min, GB, and Chi), the toughest division in all of football last season with 45 wins.

I see no “sure wins” on the Giants’ schedule.
I only see four toss-up/possible wins, the Bears, the Saints, the Patriots, and the Raiders, four teams the Giants aren’t better than but are probably equally as bad as.
And all four of those games are on the road!

Their neighbors in the NFC East swept NY last season. Yup, the Giants went 0-6 against the Eagles, Cowboys, and Redskins.
And they’re likely going to repeat the feat this season.

I really like the Under here.
I have three strong indicators in my favor:

1) Division history
Over the last 10 seasons, 9 of 10 last-place teams in the NFC East finished Under their season wins total.

2) Team history
New York has finished in last place in four of the last 10 seasons.

And of course, the only one that really matters:

3) The Giants stink!
When handicapping, never underestimate the value of severe suckage.
There’s an extremely high probability of NY finishing in last place again this season (based on this year’s QBs and schedule.)
In fact, they may go above and beyond their normal suckage and finish with the worst record in all of football.

I just can’t see NY getting to six wins.
Hell, I think they’re lucky if they get to three again.

My play:
NY Giants Un 5′ +110

(And am I worried that the GMen were undefeated at 3-0 in the preseason? No, I am not. They went undefeated in the 2019 preseason also, finishing 4-0.
And . . .
In regular season they went 4-12.)

Good luck with your play this NFL season!
 
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