NFL : Value in the moneyline

[smh212]

Haven't had time this year to post any opinions, but one thing I have been doing is running an experiment of betting the ML instead of taking the points in the NFL. I believe it was Vanzack who used to run a similar experiment back in the days of covers. Those that know me, know that I almost always bet dogs, so this may not be of much interest to the chalk eaters. Anyway, here are the results for weeks 1 through 3.

All games are games that I bet based on my capping. All games are risking 110/100 where the spread is concerned.

Week 1:

Spread Bets:
Texans +6.5 (L) -110
Dolphins +3 (L) -110
Browns +6 (L) -110
Panthers +9 (W) +100
Bears +10 (W) +100

Total = -130

ML Plays:
Texans +250 (L) -100
Dolphins +136 (L) -100
Browns +230 (L) -100
Panthers +335 (W) +335
Bears +450 (W) +450

Total = +485

Week 2 spreads:

Oakland +3.5 (W) +100
Redskins -1, -110 (W) +100
Lions +3 (L) -110
Bills +5 (W) +100
Browns +6.5 (W) +100

Total = +290

Week 2 ML:

Oakland +160 (W) +160
Redskins -11 (W) +100
Lions +140 (L) -100
Bills +170 (W) +170
Browns +230 (L) -100

Total = +230

Week 3 spreads:

Bengals +13 (W) +100
Dolphins +13 (W) +100
Tampa +3 (W) +100
Jacksonville +4 (W) +100

Total +400

Week 3 ML:

Bengals +550 (L) -100
Dolphins +500 (W) +500
Tampa +145 (W) +145
Jacksonville +170 (W) +170

Total = +715

Entering week 4:

Spread bets = +790
Moneyline bets = +1430

Week 4 plays:

Spread plays:

KC +10 (W) +100
Rams +8 (L) -110
Oakland +7.5 (L) -110

Total -120

Moneyline plays:


KC +350 (W) +350
Rams +300 (L) -100
Oakland +300 (L) -100

Total +150

Week 5

Spread Bets:

Hou +4.5 (W) +100
Miami +6 (W) +100
Lions +3.5 (L) -110
Sf +3 (L) -110
Az -2 (W) +100
Cincy +16 (W) +100

Total = +280

Money line:

Hou +175 (L) -100
Miami +200 (W) +200
Lions +145 (L) -100
SF +135 (L) -100
Cincy +700 (L) -100
Az -165 (W) +100

Total = -100

Good luck!

 

[Fondybadger]

Keep up the good work smh -- you still in the same business you were a couple years ago?

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff bro. Good to see ya back as well .

As long as the NFL continues to see the ATS winner be the SU winner at something like 85% or whatever it is then its going to be a great approach . I am sure if we cancel out the huge spreads of say 13 or higher even 11 or higher then that pct I guesstimated above is even higher .

On another Note so F'N glad someone else is betting KC and the ML. Been trying to drum up some interest in that all week ....also like the Rams but dont like Oakland here but its not a great spot for either but IMO more so for Oakland .

BOL:cheers:

 

[NYGiants25]

im usually a chalk eater, but thats some interesting info bro, thats for the insight ... :cheers:

 

[wiseplayer]

Good stuff, however I think the Rams and Raiders get blown out tomorrow.

 

[Blue_Chip]

Like the Rams +8

GL

 

[tru]

been awhile since u been around kid. u know how we do, on all 3 of ur games today, god has balls jus not that crazy on bettin those 3 MLs. hopefully kc keeps that ml a W for u. good luck on tha other games

 

[Rastaman]

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="98%"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#99cccc"><td width="22%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Sep 28 12:03pm[/FONT]</td> <td align="left" width="32%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]5 Team Parlay - Pending[/FONT]</td> <td width="30%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial]180.00 to win 4204.15[/FONT]</td> <td align="right" width="15%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial][/FONT]</td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 1. Football - Cleveland Browns - team total Over 20½ (-115)
for the entire game held on Sep 28 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 2. Football - Arizona Cardinals/New York Jets - total Over 43½ (-110)
for the entire game held on Sep 28 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 3. Football - Tennessee Titans - spread -3 (-115)
for the entire game held on Sep 28 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 4. Football - Kansas City Chiefs - spread +9 (-115)
for the entire game held on Sep 28 at 12:00pm [pending] [/FONT]</td></tr> <tr bgcolor="#99cccc"> <td colspan="4" width="100%">[FONT=Verdana, Arial] 5. Football - Carolina Panthers - spread -7 (-105)
for the entire game held on Sep 28 at 12:00pm [pending][/FONT]</td></tr></tbody></table>
Someone please console me!!!!I'mma smoke my lungs out!!!

 

[smh212]

Fondy, Still doing the same work, it's keepin me busy!

Tru, Good to see your still firing away!

Week 6:

Spread plays:

Atlanta +3 (W) +100
Tampa -1 (W) +100
Rams +13 (W) +100
49ers +4.5 (L) -110
Az +4.5 (W) +100
Oak +7 (L) -110

Total = +280
Moneyline:

Atlanta +130
49ers +185
Az +180
Oak +250
Rams +750

Total = +860
Good Luck to All!!!

 

[smh212]

Lots of dogs this week....C'mon Rams...lol

 

[tru]

card looks good. good luck today. ncaaf forum needs to see ur face again.

 

[smh212]

Two additions to week 6

Spread:

BROWNS +7.5 (W) +100

Moneyline:

BROWNS +280 (W) +280

 

[smh212]

At the conclusion of Week 6, here are the numbers:

Spread plays: 20-10 +13.30 units

Money Line plays: 15-14 +26.20 units

At this point, all signs are pointing towards the moneyline, when you consider that winning at a 52% clip has yielded a ROI of 26.20 units whereas winning at a 66% clip has yielded only 13.30 units.

I don't expect to his 66% of my NFL wagers ATS this year or any year. A more realistic number is 55%. Let's see what things look like once the sample grows.

 

[smh212]

Week 7

Spread plays:

Buffalo -1, -110 (W) +200
Special note on this one. I flat bet my games, but on this one, Imma step out and put an extra unit down. For starters, I made Buffalo -3, and that more than anything will drive my bet. Couple factors here:

1. SD off big win, drove up public sentiment
2. Buf off bye week
3. Buf excellent home field advantage
4. Sd travel from west to east with 1 pm start
5. Backing solid home team needing only one score

Carolina -3 (W) +100
Oak +3 (W) +100
Vikes +3 (L) -110
Cle +7.5 (W) +100
GB +1.5 (W) +100
SF +10.5 (L) -110

Total = +380

Money line Plays:

Oak +160 (W) _160
Vikes +155 (L) -100
Cle +270 (L) -100
GB +110 (W) +100
SF +350 (L) -100

Total = -30
Good luck!

 

[SportsNut]

At the conclusion of Week 6, here are the numbers:

Spread plays: 20-10 +13.30 units

Money Line plays: 15-14 +26.20 units

At this point, all signs are pointing towards the moneyline, when you consider that winning at a 52% clip has yielded a ROI of 26.20 units whereas winning at a 66% clip has yielded only 13.30 units.

I don't expect to his 66% of my NFL wagers ATS this year or any year. A more realistic number is 55%. Let's see what things look like once the sample grows.

Posted this in the discussion thread as a breakdown thought you may be interested if you didnt see it ; :cheers:

Did some quick research probably need to double check and maybe break it down better at some point this week.

My thoughts on NFL 08 :
As I have said I believe HOME FIELD is a huge factor in 2008 for teams and really key in understanding how a game plays out . There are a few bad teams really starting to show there face IMO Det , STL , SF , SEA (w/o Hasselback) , Oakland , KC and maybe Cincy (w/o Palmer) . Now those teams really dont have a so called home field edge IMO though KC is borderline depending on there health (believe Huard played injured last start @ CAR which barely got mentioned) . These teams that I say dont have a home field edge to me that means there general play is no better home or away . So with the mythical Home Field factored into a spread they are less valuable at home IMO because they are unlikely to win so the say 7 pts they lose for home field ( 3.5 pt swing = 7pts) is tremendous lose of value even though they are home. So its not about Stadium , home crowds its about performance. Players should be statistical better at home by a clear margin IMO. In a sense Home field should bring out the best in a player which should translate into statiscal edges . So here it goes......

Home team records of the so called weak teams:
Cincy 0-2 (0-1 Fitzpatrick)
Oak 0-2
KC 1-1 (of the mentioned best home field factor when Huard is healthy IMO)
Det 0-2
SF 1-3
Seattle 1-2
StL 0-2

So 3-14 for these teams with SF win being vs Det and Seattle vs Stl so even weaker then it looks because weak team vs weak team doesnt say much . AFC 23-18 ( 1-5 bad teams) at home NFC 30-17(2-9) = 53-35 so take away the 3-14 and its 50-21 for Home teams .

So really look at how hard winning a road game in the NFC is outside of the Det SF , Seattle and STL. Teams are 28-8 . NFC East 9-3 with Wash having 2 away conference wins and a bad home loss . NFC South is 12-1 and Zona is 3-0 which puts those 3 divisions since Zona has 3 bottomffeders IMO at 24-4 .

Have to think AFC teams at NFC sites is going to be angle but have to research that .

Anyway so try and add the week by weeek breakdown at some point as well.
All season to date closing lines may slightily fluctuate but using I believe Pinnacle closes which to me tends to be the tighest market as Matchbook is more an exchange then market) There are probably 5 or 6 games that could be graded differently or bumped into a different spread category will have to list those as well . I pay such close attention to the lines I basically remember where they all ended up universally so there might be just 2 or 3 games that are tough to clearly grade...

Home Favs :
-1 to -3 : 11-5-2 (only 2-3 past 2 weeks)
Of the losses 4 were SU and OUR ( as in CTG bettors) beloved Texans are the 1 SU win laying -3 or less who didnt cover the spread . The SU losses were Bears hosting TB and NO hosting Minny . Along with two injury QB games that were -1 Cincy vs Cle when Palmer was late scratch opened -3.5 and Sea hosting GB this week closed at -1.

-3.5 to -6.5: 12-13
Really 2 weeks in week #2 and #5 responsible is both seeing 1-4 marks . Of the 13 ATS losses 8 were SU .

-7 to -9.5 : 7-1
Lone loss was also SU SD in week 1 hosting Carolina laying -9.5 opened -10 .

DD chalk : 1-9
Have to check this but either 4 or 5 are SU . As I know 4 ATS wins that were losses were by 1, 2 ,3 and 9pts (on a 16pt spread) . So have to figure out the 1 game ...Lone win was Car -10 vs KC....

Home Dogs :
+3 or less : 4-11
Not positive but believe all 4 wins were SU . ATL this week was .

+3.5 to +6.5 : 4-2-1
Only CLE covering +6 vs Pitt on SNF was not a SU win but ATS win. Losses were Cle in week 1 hosting Dallas and this week SF hosting Philly .

+7 or more : 2-3
Wins Browns on MNF and KC (happy to hit both MLs) . Losses Rams twice NYG and Buffalo then Oak vs SD .

Home Favs 31-28-2
Home Dogs 10-16-1 or Road Chalk 16-10-1

Favs should be 47-38-3 (46-29-3 minus DD chalk though).

Now thats its basically looked at glad to see that my thoughts were verified by the stats . As important as home field is it also has to be understand that it doesnt clearly imply anything in regards to the spread . It just means that two neutral teams have shown that home field is the deciding factor . Which is validated by the success of small home favs IMO. Also though struggling teams at home have fared well despite being ony 6-5-1 ATS catching 3.5 or more because really 4 of the 5 losses are the my "bad teams" and only KC has a win so that leaves the other home dogs as 5-1 ATS catching 3.5 or better .

At worst hopefully this makes a few decisions easier but like everything else patterns change quickly and what happened yesterday isnt always relevant .
:cheers:

 

[smh212]

That was an enjoyable read, with some really good info....thanks Nut!!

 

[ljc_267]

gl today. like those plays a lot. Buff one of my top plays as well

 

[smh212]

Heading into Week 8:

Spread Plays: 25-12 +17.10
Money Line: 17-17 +25.90

 

[smh212]

WEEK 8

Spread Plays:

Stl +7.5 (W) +100
Oak +8 (L) -110
Det +7.5 (L) -110
Kc +14 (W) +100
Cincy +9 (L) -110
Sea +5.5 (W) +100

Total = -30

Moneyline plays:

Mia +100 (W) +100
Stl +285 (L) -100
Oak +285 (L) -100
Det +270 (L) -100
Cincy +305 (L) -100
Kc +500 (L) -100
Sea +205 (W) +205

Total = -195

Good Luck!

 

[Seabass]

I think you'll probably make a lot of money doing this. I've been dabbling in moneylines this year too and I've done a lot better that way than I have with spreads. I do mix in the occasional favorite but not often.

KC and NYG are the only ones I was on today. KC +500 is unreal high (think its tied as I'm posting this)

 

[smh212]

Week 9

Spreads:

Sea +7 (L) -110
Stl +3 (L) -110
Cle -2.5 (L) -110
Dal +9 (L) -110
Ne +6.5 (W) +100
Kc +9.5 (W) +100
Cincy +7.5 (W) +100
Det +12.5 (W) +100

Total = -40
Money Lines:

Sea +260 (L) -100
Stl +135 (L) -100
Dal +325 (L) -100
Ne +240 (L) -100
Kc+350 (L) -100
Cincy +270 (W) +270
Det +450 (L) -100

Total = -330

Good Luck!

 

[smh212]

WEEK 10

Speads:

Det +6.5
Oak +10
Buf +3.5
Chi +3
Kc +14.5

Moneylines:

Det +235
Chi +125
Buf +160
Oak +350
Kc +660

Good luck

 

[B.A.R.]

Your gonna cash this week.

Good to see you around man.

 

[tru]

gl today smh, on alot of tha same