NFL Team Win Total Discussion Thread

Bears under 8 -125 is of interest to me. QB situation obviously is a mess with Nagy not really naming a starter, and how inaccurate Trubisky has been historically. I don't really care much for Montgomery as a feature back either, as his rate of gain after contact is very poor and Cohen and Patterson don't offer a whole lot either. WRs are just ok with Robinson, Miller, Ginn and then picking up Jimmy Graham was a head scratcher but the GM loves to take shots on TEs in free agency. Graham appears to be past his prime at 33. The Bear defense has also regressed and prob realistically ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. The division though is certainly not that good and that weighs in their favor though they have tough home games with TB,Colts, NO, Hou.
 
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Timh said:
Bears under 8 -125 is of interest to me. QB situation obviously is a mess with Nagy not really naming a starter, and how inaccurate Trubisky has been historically. I don't really care much for Montgomery as a feature back either, as his rate of gain after contact is very poor and Cohen and Patterson don't offer a whole lot either. WRs are just ok with Robinson, Miller, Ginn and then picking up Jimmy Graham was a head scratcher but the GM loves to take shots on TEs in free agency. Graham appears to be past his prime at 33. The Bear defense has also regressed and prob realistically ranked in the bottom 5 in the league. The division though is certainly not that good and that weighs in their favor though they have tough home games with TB,Colts, NO, Hou.
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Bears D is bottom 5?
In no particular order but there's more worse.
Miami
Jets
Cleveland
Cincinnati
All of the AFC South
Vegas is putrid
Chargers aren't better
Giants awful
Washington awful. Are we allowed to call them Washington?
Detroit is awful
Bucs overrated
Carolina below average
Atlanta below average
All of the NFC except 49ers are worse.
Whats the explanation on bottom 5?
 
Wise you're right, I was too harsh on them. I do think though their numbers are going to regress, and they weren't very good last year with sacks and creating turnovers. Washington I think is not horrible. They have a pretty formidable DL and adding C. Young to go with Kerrigan and Sweat should really improve their pass rush. LB play should improve with Foster ready to contribute and Hamilton, Bostic and Anderson all good young players. CB is a weakness and they will need some guys to step up there with Moreau and Fuller. Collins and Sean Davis should be decent at the safeties. I like the fact that Del Rio will be coaching this defense, and look for improvement.
 
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I took Arizona over 6.5 early but that number is long gone now. Also took the Jets under 6.5 and Dallas under 10.

I liked Rams under 9 but missed that number and wouldn't take it at 8.5 unless I got +money.

Ditto for the Bears at 8.5, I was slow on the switch there but even under 8 still has value I think if the vig is right.

Agree with Tenny under as well. People too high on them after their playoff run and I doubt they duplicate that effort all season. Under 9 -140 looks bettable to me.
 
Hulu I think that Tenn under 9 got -126 is a good play, their schedule is very tough first 8 games. The other one for me prob Bears under 8.
 
Big daddy naught said:
booooooooo lol. You really think they regress?
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I think they do a little. Hey I absolutely think they can be as good or better.
If Corey Davis contributes and Humphries is healthy in the slot.
Need a Spell HB and RT to get solid.

On D. Casey departure will be felt. But next man up is as good or potentially better.
LB core is solid. But they haven’t been practicing together all camp.

Secondary....

Hey we got a Kicker!
 
ProV1Colt said:
I think they do a little. Hey I absolutely think they can better.
If Corey Davis contributes and Humphries is healthy in the slot.
Need a Spell HB and RT to get solid.

On D. Casey departure will be felt. But next man up is as good or potentially better.
LB cure is solid. But they haven’t been practicing together all camp.

Secondary....

Hey we got a Kicker!
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I hear all that. I was never a fan of the Corey Davis pick when we took him. Hes not bad, just not that Star they hoped. Kinda got bailed out that AJ is such a stud. He is playing for his next contract so maybe he shows out this year.

i like the kid Evans from app state. Could be a nice change of pace from henry.

letting casey go was kind of surprising wish they kept him

secondary is still an issue. Hoping Fulton has the goods.

having a reliable kicker is key!
 
Big daddy naught said:
I hear all that. I was never a fan of the Corey Davis pick when we took him. Hes not bad, just not that Star they hoped. Kinda got bailed out that AJ is such a stud. He is playing for his next contract so maybe he shows out this year.

i like the kid Evans from app state. Could be a nice change of pace from henry.

letting casey go was kind of surprising wish they kept him

secondary is still an issue. Hoping Fulton has the goods.

having a reliable kicker is key!
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And Vrabel.... he is so solid. You can’t underestimate his coaching ability.
Love the guy
 
I like Vrabel as cult of personality. Over 7.5.
Charger defense great, coach and qb not great Under 7.5.
Lions make a move Over 6.5
Roger's is annoying, no home field advantage Under 8.5
Roger's under 26.5 td
Eagles seem worn out, love coach Under 9.5
Dallas wins east. If not now, when? -130
Minshew, good roster, everyone hate Jax over 4.5
 
And I just cant back teams with coaches that suck. Ya, texans and falcons might go over, but no way bill obrien has anything over my head this fall. People want to try Redskins over? there is no way I would ever be convinced to ever consider backing Dwayne Haskins, ever
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
And I just cant back teams with coaches that suck. Ya, texans and falcons might go over, but no way bill obrien has anything over my head this fall. People want to try Redskins over? there is no way I would ever be convinced to ever consider backing Dwayne Haskins, ever
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But you‘re taking the Jags over?
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
No arguement, but 5 wins seems attainable. It seems interesting to back conventional wisdom worst team seemingly dumping talent.
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I‘m trying to think how these sorts of teams tend to do? I guess last year Miami would be the comparison. Did the Dolphins win total under hit last year?
 
Hello boys.

Regarding the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, I don’t see much value one way or the other. I think 11.5 is a perfect number. 11 I would def be on it but don’t love 11.5. Road games at Balt, Buff, TB and New Orleans (I’m personally only concerned about the first and last) make this number dicey

Returning 19 out of 22 starters and keeping every single position coach is huge in my opinion for this bizarre offseason. But conventional handicapping is going to have to take some time until we see what’s out there first couple weeks
 
Capaholic said:
Hello boys.

Regarding the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, I don’t see much value one way or the other. I think 11.5 is a perfect number. 11 I would def be on it but don’t love 11.5. Road games at Balt, Buff, TB and New Orleans (I’m personally only concerned about the first and last) make this number dicey

Returning 19 out of 22 starters and keeping every single position coach is huge in my opinion for this bizarre offseason. But conventional handicapping is going to have to take some time until we see what’s out there first couple weeks
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I wouldn’t worry about road games at all. Not only has the home field advantage pretty much disappeared from the NFL before this year, it seems impossible for anyone to get any type of advantage with zero crowds. I just don’t see how there is any “home field advantage” to be had, I would imagine that will be reflected in the spreads each week as well.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I‘m trying to think how these sorts of teams tend to do? I guess last year Miami would be the comparison. Did the Dolphins win total under hit last year?
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Jets did it a few years ago and ended up with the 6th pick and had to move up to 3 to get a QB not even knowing which one they would get.
 
Might just be my negativity but I don't see any way the Jets go over the 6.5 wins. The schedule is tougher, they have no talent, and the coach sucks. Sign me up for Jets U 6.5.
 
brewers888 said:
Crowder is their best receiver. They drafted Mims who has been hurt all training camp and they also signed Perriman who had a nice second half last season and he too has been hurt.
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I heard most their wrs been hurt in camp and it made me start wondering who the hell they even were, lol. Mosley opted out didn’t he? Along with trading adams can’t bode well for their defense. Gotta think bills whack them week 1.
 
2daBank said:
I heard most their wrs been hurt in camp and it made me start wondering who the hell they even were, lol. Mosley opted out didn’t he? Along with trading adams can’t bode well for their defense. Gotta think bills whack them week 1.
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Mosley opted out and Adams is gone but he's pretty meaningless as far as I'm concerned. The offensive line is almost entirely new though Becton is supposedly looking like a future all pro. Its just an awful surrounding cast for Darnold.
 
brewers888 said:
Mosley opted out and Adams is gone but he's pretty meaningless as far as I'm concerned. The offensive line is almost entirely new though Becton is supposedly looking like a future all pro. Its just an awful surrounding cast for Darnold.
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in time it prob be a good thing the oline is new, just not sure that be the case out the gates.
 
2daBank said:
in time it prob be a good thing the oline is new, just not sure that be the case out the gates.
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The Jets may have the worst roster in the entire league and that includes @VirginiaCavs Jags. No playmakers for Darnold on offense, no pass rush to speak of and no NFL caliber cornerbacks. This team could very well challenge for the number one overall pick and then they would have to decide whether to keep Darnold or bail and draft Lawrence.

For the record I am a fan of Darnold and know he has been put in a no win situation. The new GM looks to be promising but he has a ton of work ahead of him starting with firing his friend Gase.
 
brewers888 said:
The Jets may have the worst roster in the entire league and that includes @VirginiaCavs Jags. No playmakers for Darnold on offense, no pass rush to speak of and no NFL caliber cornerbacks. This team could very well challenge for the number one overall pick and then they would have to decide whether to keep Darnold or bail and draft Lawrence.

For the record I am a fan of Darnold and know he has been put in a no win situation. The new GM looks to be promising but he has a ton of work ahead of him starting with firing his friend Gase.
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yea, I don’t think it on darnold at all. I would deal the pick and keep him if they have it. I thought he played pretty damn good after coming back from mono considering what he has around him. Def need to fire Gase, not sure why the hell he got the job in the 1st place? Nobody seems to like him.
 
Ok. HWG.

chargers u7.5/+115
packers u8.5/+110
Rogers u26.5/-111
lions o6.5/-154
cowboys east /-125
titans playoffs /-133
patriots playoffs /-189
bengals u5.5 /+110
 
Off Patriots. Too much attrition on defense. They have good dbacks but dline looks to get gashed. I will hate myself watching Cam implode with my money.

Took Texans o7.5 /-105 instead
 
Season totals plays, each for 4 units:
Cincy U 5.5 +110
GB O 9 +105
NYJ U 6.5 -140
Wash U 5 +110
Carolina U5.5 +110

Division Winners, each for 4 units
GB +170
Minn+160
 
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