NFL SURVIVOR Pool/Pick Thread

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The_HAMMER

Pretty much a regular
Thought this could be a valuable thread for all those in suicide/survivor pools.

WEEK 1:

Philly and Pit looking like decent options early. Chime in boys! BOL this season.
 
If I was in a survivor league this year, I'd be on the Eagles this week. I always take home teams also when I play these leagues. I'm not in one this year though :(.
 
Definitely leaning Philly. I don't want to because everyone else will be on them as well but week one there are so many uncertainties, prefer to stick with what looks like the best bet. Plus who knows where they will go from here. Jax (based on what we saw last year) could damn well be their easiest game.
 
Zeke said:
Definitely leaning Philly. I don't want to because everyone else will be on them as well but week one there are so many uncertainties, prefer to stick with what looks like the best bet. Plus who knows where they will go from here. Jax (based on what we saw last year) could damn well be their easiest game.
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I said it last year and will say it again. ( I will apologize in advance if this is arrogant) I have won a whole bunch of these. The reason people lose is because of this statement... ...
Do not focus on what other people are picking..,,
Pick the team YOU think is going to win, not which team everyone else is going to pick...
Also do not "save" teams and do not look at future value of teams,, if you lose there is no future value and the saved teams won't help you.....
3 leans - Detroit, philly, Chicago
 
I definitely agree with that statement. I have just seen the most popular pick blow up so many times sending half the ship sinking. We are allowed two strikes in mine so there is a bit of room to take longshots but not much. I will most likely take the birds.
 
I think Philly is the easiest. I would stay away from the Jets, Giants, Baltimore and Seattle. I smell fishy things with these games. I think my 2nd selection would be Chicago. The bills are a joke.
 
TheCashMan said:
I said it last year and will say it again. ( I will apologize in advance if this is arrogant) I have won a whole bunch of these. The reason people lose is because of this statement... ...
Do not focus on what other people are picking..,,
Pick the team YOU think is going to win, not which team everyone else is going to pick...
Also do not "save" teams and do not look at future value of teams,, if you lose there is no future value and the saved teams won't help you.....
3 leans - Detroit, philly, Chicago
Click to expand...

It may sound crazy but I actually invoke the exact opposite strategy. I'm in a pool where the prize loot is massive and there is over 1,400 entrants. My number one rule is: "DON'T GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP". Future value plays a very important role in this scenario, especially if you have multiple entries.

Having said that, I add the New York JETS to your three leans and those are my top four survivor options for week one. BOL.
 
The_HAMMER said:
It may sound crazy but I actually invoke the exact opposite strategy. I'm in a pool where the prize loot is massive and there is over 1,400 entrants. My number one rule is: "DON'T GO DOWN WITH THE SHIP". Future value plays a very important role in this scenario, especially if you have multiple entries.

Having said that, I add the New York JETS to your three leans and those are my top four survivor options for week one. BOL.
Click to expand...


Multiple entries and and buy backs are different animals, allows you to take those chances earlier and you should..

I am in a large one similar size to yours and then 4 small/medium ones...Also in all of mine, the picks have to be in by noon Friday, so if there is a freak injury you could get screwed.....BOL to everyone!

Let me ask you this on the Jets. Would you be surprised if they lost outright?
 
TheCashMan said:
Multiple entries and and buy backs are different animals, allows you to take those chances earlier and you should..

I am in a large one similar size to yours and then 4 small/medium ones...Also in all of mine, the picks have to be in by noon Friday, so if there is a freak injury you could get screwed.....BOL to everyone!

Let me ask you this on the Jets. Would you be surprised if they lost outright?
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The short answer is no. Absolutely nothing surprises me anymore in this crazy league. However, Oakland has been in the sewer of the NFL for some time now; I think it's going to take a millennium to correct to sort of problems they have. But factually, they are starting a rookie QB travelling a huge distance for a 1:00pm EST start. I have to say that I like the Jets chances straight up in this one quite a bit.

If I'm not mistaken last year I took the JETS as well in their home opener against the Bills week 1 and they absolutely throttled them. By no means do I think the Jets will be a dominant team this season, but looking ahead this is a great spot to use up an average team will little to no future value...if you're a gambling man of course. ;) BOL CASH!
 
Week 2

Denver looks to be the best choice early....biggest spread. Followed by Green Bay and San Fran. I will be looking to avoid the latter two for sure.

If you feel like gambling early and have multiple entires you may want to look at Buffalo and Cinncy. They could be viable options...both are at home against opponents that's just won huge games against division rivals.

Drop some more more thoughts throughout the week after some further analysis.
 
ESPN INSIDER ARTICLE FOR WEEK 2 ...
To help you visualize, below is our Eliminator Pool threat matrix, which shows you how all 32 teams project each week based on our model. It will be updated for this column each Tuesday as results come in over the course of the season.

Here's a helpful guide to navigate the information:

Green: Our equity-maximizing pick of the week
Red: Popular pick: This is the consensus pick by you, the player
Brown: Max method: This finds the best matchup of the season and works backward to maximize total win percentage throughout the season
<offer></offer>
​
insider_eliminatorweek2_tk_576x852.jpg
<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">numberFire</cite>
Beat the public

In Week 2, the three most-picked teams in the ESPN.com Eliminator Challenge are the New Orleans Saints (30.9 percent), Green Bay Packers (26.0 percent), and Washington Redskins(8.4 percent). Using this information combined with our win probability estimates, here are the equity-maximizing picks of the week (Vegas win probabilities according to Westgate Las Vegas Superbook):
1. Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (80.3 percent numberFire win probability, 90.9 percent Vegas win probability)
Population-adjusted win probability*: 78.0
We had the Broncos as our top pick last week and mentioned that they would likely be at the top all season. Well, here they are again. Denver dominated the Indianapolis Colts on offense, and despite Indy's furious comeback attempt, the Broncos were comfortably in control. Peyton Manning's offense added 16 points above expectation, the No. 2 total in the AFC behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chiefs have suffered a slew of injuries, and Andy Reid barely letJamaal Charles touch the ball in Week 1. Kansas City currently ranks No. 29 in offensive efficiency, close to 10 points below expectation.

2. San Francisco 49ers over Chicago Bears (77.5 percent nF, 75.6 percent Vegas)
Population-adjusted win probability: 76.6 percent
Kaepernick led an aerial assault over the depleted Cowboys secondary on Sunday, adding over a point to his team's offense for every two passes, which was No. 2 in the league on a per-play basis. The Bears will have their hands full, looking to rebound after a heartbreaking overtime loss to Buffalo.

3. Washington Redskins over Jacksonville Jaguars (70.6 percent nF, 72.6 percent Vegas)
Population-adjusted win probability: 66.5 percent
While the Jaguars gave everyone a scare, jumping out to a 17-0 lead over the Philadelphia Eagles, they fell back to Earth. The standard pick-against-the-Jaguars strategy still holds, andRobert Griffin III will look to bounce back from the least efficient quarterback performance of Week 1. Griffin cost Washington over 13 points that a league-average team would have scored.
*numberFire projected win probability adjusted for the percentage of people selecting this team in ESPN Eliminator Pools.

​

Probable picks

Don't want to maximize your winnings? Here are the teams most likely to win in Week 2:
1. Denver Broncos over Kansas City Chiefs (80.3 percent numberFire win probability, 90.9 percent Vegas win probability)

2. San Francisco 49ers over Chicago Bears (77.5 percent nF, 75.6 percent Vegas)

3. Washington Redskins over Jacksonville Jaguars (70.6 percent nF, 72.6 percent Vegas)

​

Max method

Winning this week is your primary goal, but it is also valuable to look into the future, as you can only pick each team once. The Saints are the most popular pick, but they have a better matchup -- at home versus Tampa Bay -- in Week 5. San Francisco, Washington and Green Bay are all viable options, as this week provides their highest win probability projections.
 
@ NYGiants25

Awesome stuff my friend! I'm going 2 GREEN BAY and 2 DENVER with my remaining for spots in my pool.

I assume this data gets adjusted each week? If you could continue to post it that would be greatly appreciated.

:cheers3:
 
The_HAMMER said:
Week 2

Denver looks to be the best choice early....biggest spread. Followed by Green Bay and San Fran. I will be looking to avoid the latter two for sure.

If you feel like gambling early and have multiple entires you may want to look at Buffalo and Cinncy. They could be viable options...both are at home against opponents that's just won huge games against division rivals.

Drop some more more thoughts throughout the week after some further analysis.
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Not to nitpick but NO coming off of a loss so they will be battling to avoid an 0-2 start. I wouldn't touch the Cincy/NO game. Probably GB for me this week.
 
Two Utes said:
Not to nitpick but NO coming off of a loss so they will be battling to avoid an 0-2 start. I wouldn't touch the Cincy/NO game. Probably GB for me this week.
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Why even think if a road team in the 2nd week???
especially one that does not play that well on the road and outdoors??
 
Well...I changed GB to TAMPA BAY. Just way too popular a pick and I like the future value with GB...plus to be honest...I don't think the Jets are that bad...if they can control the t.o.p, play good D and run effectively I think they can keep it close. NYJ D line vs. GB O line = Advantage NYJ..so I'm gonna stay away.

I would never even consider New Orleans on the road and on grass - EVER. The situation does not matter for me. When they lose games, this is usually when it happens.
 
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I was actually quite nervous about SF and I also like their future value. However, Marshall and Jeffrey are both questionable for the bears...and that is big.
 
Well, down to 3 spots out of 7 in my big pool...over half have been eliminated already which is the only positive thing there; still alive in my smaller one. Should have went with wash over tampa..oh well. Really gotta make these next picks count.

WEEK 3

Without a doubt NE is the overwhelming survivor option this week with the spread opening at 15...quickly got bet down to 14. Obviously I think they win like everyone, but is there a chance that Oakland pulls off the shocker? Of course there is; question is: how good of a chance? I'd speculate around 15% or less, which actually makes NE a pretty solid option, except for the fact that everyone and their mother will be taking them.

RULE #1 is: SURVIVE

Therefore, NEW ENGLAND appears like the most viable option and to be honest the one pro that out weighs the con of their popularity this week is they don't actually have a great looking schedule looking ahead. This week is definitely their highest percentage to win out of any game over the remaining 14 games of the schedule.

Option 2 looks to be New Orleans. I know they are a completely different team at home; however, I will never lay 10 points with them as the favorite in their current form, which actually makes me think there are also a possibility that they could fall for a third straight time, as unlikely as it is.

Will throw in some thoughts on the lesser games shortly. Chime in friends!
 
Scrap the above thought regarding New Orleans. Minnesota is also an entirely different team without AP. With Peterson out INDEFINITELY now...I would definitely upgrade New Orleans as another solid, viable option this week.
 
Going NEW ORLEANS & PHILADELPHIA ....if i make it past week 12 I'm going to need NE...we will have to start picking two team per week.

Good luck guys.
 
Pats fan here chiming in. I would take them now. They have looked like shit & the entire Boston sports radio nation is in agreement. Brady seems to be off on his throws & hasn't been looking at anyone not named Gronkowski or Edelman. I'm afraid this team may be destined for mediocrity this year & their division doesn't look overly shitty (yet). Home opener against a lousy west coast team. I took them without hesitation.
 
Bump for week 4.

Thinking Pitt or SD. Pitt still plays @ Jax but I always try to take a home team in this one and Pitt is the type of team that could go into Jax and lose. SD still has the Rams at home later in the year.
 
leaning Pitt or indy.. SD should win as well, don't know what it is but something is smelly about that game...
 
TheCashMan said:
SD should win as well, don't know what it is but something is smelly about that game...
Click to expand...

I smell it all the way from Nashville as well. SD seems like the auto play this week.
I used Pitt week 1' so I need to look else where.
this could be the week the ship goes down and I don't wanna be on it..

Any thoughts on the Skins or Hotlanta?
 
ProV1Colt said:
I smell it all the way from Nashville as well. SD seems like the auto play this week.
I used Pitt week 1' so I need to look else where.
this could be the week the ship goes down and I don't wanna be on it..

Any thoughts on the Skins or Hotlanta?
Click to expand...

No need to play Atlanta on road..
personal not comfortable with skins yet..decent spot for skins but really don't know a lot about them or giants I particular either defense..
like Indy or Pitt ( I know you used Pitt)
 
I ended up taking SD. being a Colts fan I am little worried this week. I know Tenny could show up and lay an egg but we don't have Donald Brown who was a Titans killer. I do believe Bradshaw is an upgrade and this Tenny team is different under Horton. But just beware w/ Indy
 
Cash, they are just not that good yet. They are gelln' but we can't stop the run well, getting no pressure on the qb, and can't get off the field on 3rd down.
I mean we have played Peyton and Philly, those 2 offenses you expect to put up #s
and Jax speaks for its self.
Close to 900 yards passing against us in 3 gms and around 350 rushing.
We have forced 6 Tos in 3 gms. (3int, 3 fumbles)

i like the the concept but it all starts getting pressure on the QB which losing Mathis really hurts.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I ended up taking SD. being a Colts fan I am little worried this week. I know Tenny could show up and lay an egg but we don't have Donald Brown who was a Titans killer. I do believe Bradshaw is an upgrade and this Tenny team is different under Horton. But just beware w/ Indy
Click to expand...

Even with Whitehurst? I had SD and just switched to Indy. I can change back right up to kick and maybe I should just go with the better choice in SD.
 
Yea, word is here in Nashville, Whitehurst has been practicing very well and he has been w/ This offense for a while now, they brought him over from SD w/ the staff. So he knows where to go w/ the ball and w/ our 28th ranked pass D it could be interesting. I see Wright and MCluster getting more involved today in that offense.
Just beware, we should win but it will be close.
 
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Looking at GB, NYG or Det this week. I'm not sure I want to mess with Philly this week.
Thoughts?
 
green bay seems like a no brainer to me considering they are the safest play this week and more importantly, i dont see any good spots down the road to ever want to use them again...pretty tough schedule the rest of the way...bol
 
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