NFL ~ SEPTEMBER

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Preseasin: 10-11-1



Rolling with the packers tonight. Was hoping to see+3.5, but just went ahead with the 3 and also took them outright. I like the value I'm getting with Rodgers at +150. GB will be improved defensively this year and while Chicago's defense is solidt, they had a lot of turnover luck last year. The TO's provided a short field and really helped Trubisky out a ton last season. You have to expect some regression in that department and this one could be close throughout. I'll back the best player on the field to make something happen when it counts.
  • 451 Green Bay Packers +3 +100
  • 451 Green Bay Packers +150
In week one, teams that won at least 4 more games than their opponent the previous year are only winning 41.7% ATS

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[2-0 +2.5u]
  • 455 Washington Redskins +10 -102
  • 457 Buffalo Bills +2½ +100
  • 457 Buffalo Bills/New York Jets Under 41 -105
  • 458 New York Jets Under 22 -110
  • 464 Jacksonville Jaguars +3½ -110
  • 463 Kansas City Chiefs/Jacksonville Jaguars Under 49½ -103
  • 468 Carolina Panthers +1½ -105
  • 471 Cincinnati Bengals +9½ -105
  • 477 Pittsburgh Steelers +5½ -102
JAX +3' - Not too far removed from the AFC Championship game they had won with 6 minutes left. Jaguars has made big splashes with their defense and were blah on offense. Theys now have a better QB (albiet not much better no matter who says so) and are at home opening against the Chiefs. The chiefs are the best offense in football but the Jags secondary matches up well against them and Williams is unproven in an offense where he has never really been challenged. Plus it fucking hot here, I live here. It will be well over 100 degrees feels like temp and even hotter in the stadium. I may even hit a little bit on ML.
Steelers +5' - Pats have a 42 year old QB, lost Gronk with his nearly 100 yards a game, playing the Steelers and are without their starting Center for the season. The Pats have been trying to change their approach to a run-heavy system and a defensive focus to complement Brady's aging arm which plays right into the Steelers strengths. Pitt could go into NE and get the upset but at least it should be very close throughout.

View attachment 42785
 
In 20 years the Browns have won 1 time in week one (1-18-1) and that was 15 years ago. They are only 6-14 ATS in week one games in that time-span yet they are 5.5 point favorites today vs TEN
:watchingyou:

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2 more...
  • 453 Atlanta Falcons/Minnesota Vikings Under 47 -109
  • 461 San Francisco 49ers/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 51 -109
 
Had shit picks with Jags and Steelers but still managed 7-4 yesterday. I'll take it.
  • 480 New Orleans Saints -6½ -108
  • 480 New Orleans Saints 1st Half -4 -103 (only .5u)
Saints usually start slow, but I think they will want to prove a point after the way they were fucked last year. Not to mention that they have probably the best RB/WR duo in the league and are going up against a Houston team that has gone through a lot of changes on both sides of the ball. Their D takes a hit with Sheldon Rankins out, but I just don't think the Texans are ready to match points with Brees and company.

​
 
broncs too good in week one...4 straight, 10 of last 12 and 14 of 18

  • 481 Denver Broncos -150
2H ov done in 3Q :rofl:
 
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Taking the puss way out, just not enough confidence in the Cam to get the cover here, CAR has owned them in the series lately winning 3 of last 4 and 9-3(8-4 ATS) since '13. I do expect points though as CAR will score and their D is nothing special so even TB can score 20ish. Prediction 31-24
  • 101 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Carolina Panthers* Over 48½ -107 (1/.93)
  • 102 Carolina Panthers -280 (2/.71)
View attachment 42880
 
You probably have this game pegged a little better then me, I always trust the panthers d a little more than I should. It doesn’t help having an outside perspective living in Charlotte. Goff luck!!
 
Sunday 9-15
  • 261 Indianapolis Colts/Tennessee Titans Under 43½ -105
  • 264 Detroit Lions +1 -103
  • 265 Buffalo Bills -1 -108
  • 271 Dallas Cowboys -6 -104
  • 273 Jacksonville Jaguars +7 +105
  • 273 Jacksonville Jaguars/Houston Texans Under 43 -106
  • 279 Minnesota Vikings +140
  • 281 Kansas City Chiefs/Oakland Raiders Over 53 -105
  • 283 New Orleans Saints/Los Angeles Rams Over 52½ -105
  • 285 Chicago Bears -2 -102
  • 287 Philadelphia Eagles/Atlanta Falcons Over 52½ -105
Jags wont lose that much with Minshew in for Foles and their defense is the real deal...right there with the Bills as league best. Even without Ngakoue look for Deshawn to be running for his life most of the time. Under smell good too.
View attachment 42948
 
[16-13 +2.29u]
6-4-1 yesterday
Started yesterday 6-1 in early games but finished 0-3-1 in late games :thumbsdown3:

Gonna roll with the home team tonight. I dont think the brownies are a TD better than anyone, esp on the road. Mayfield still a work in progress and the coaching isn't good. They amassed 18 penalties in week 1. Teams that get more than 12 penalties only win 45% the following week or cover 44% link
  • 290 New York Jets +6½ +100
View attachment 42966
 
[16-14 +1.29u]
6-5-1 week 2

  • 302 Jacksonville Jaguars +115
  • 301 Tennessee Titans/Jacksonville Jaguars Under 38 -105
Line opened up -1.5 and near 70% on the titans but the line hasn't moved. Tot opened up 42 and is down to 38.

I think this will be a low scoring ball game, bend don't break type of defenses on both sides. Both teams like to establish a run game on offense and not go up against better secondaries.

Score likely a 16-13 or 17-16 type game and could go either way. I'll side with the home team on a rainy, muggy nite here in Jville. Short week for both will help the defenses keep the game in check.

Edit...the rain seems to have passed
jaguars-cheerleaders-4814.jpg
 
Got a few today
  • 461 Denver Broncos/Green Bay Packers Under 41½ -108
  • 465 Baltimore Ravens/Kansas City Chiefs Over 51½ -108
  • 467 Cincinnati Bengals/Buffalo Bills Under 43½ -105
  • 469 Atlanta Falcons/Indianapolis Colts Over 47½ -109
  • 472 Minnesota Vikings -9 -105
  • 474 New England Patriots -21 -101
  • 473 New York Jets/New England Patriots Under 43 -105
  • 475 Miami Dolphins +21½ -105
  • 480 Arizona Cardinals -2½ -101
  • 479 Carolina Panthers/Arizona Cardinals Under 45 -102
  • 481 New Orleans Saints +5 -108
  • 483 Houston Texans +3 +105
  • 485 Pittsburgh Steelers +6½ -109
  • 487 Los Angeles Rams/Cleveland Browns Under 47 -102
1569141903499.jpg
 
Nothing great but made a little as I went 8-6 yesterday and 10-6 on the week

I was going to play the skins as a home dog, but the more I look at it, I just dont see many options for them to move the ball consistently, they may get a lucky bomb hit to robinson if he can get behind norman and under one of trubisky's rainbow prayers. Both offenses are basically bottom tier level shit and this could really be a dull game. Da bears D is a few notches better though and that likely carriers them to the win/cover...say 24-10 or so. Would hit da bears but I hate to switch and play the other side than I originally capped.

  • 489 Chicago Bears/Washington Redskins Under 41 -103
1569210935799.jpg
 
[26-21 +4.02u]

View attachment 43226
Note: Dollar amounts are based on straight $100 risk per play (1u)

Two pick 6's fuct my Monday under, but I still think I had right side capped
  • 102 Green Bay Packers -4 -101
  • 102 Green Bay Packers 1st Half -170
Eaglets have literally played no one. KC will prove how weak the DET secondary is this weekend as little Kyler Murray already did week one. Don't really care about the drops, dont you think drops will happen tonight?

Pack's D is legit. Every important metric favors the Packers tonight. Every single one. DL, OL, secondary, QB, etc. GB OL is also solidl. GB has given up 7 sacks this season but 5 of those came game 1 against the monstrous DL of the Bears. The Eagles have nowhere near the pass rush that the Packers have faced so far. Rodgers should have lots of fun.
other pluses
  • 3 OF THE PACKERS 4 GAMES SO FAR ARE AT HOME. THIS IS THE SECOND BACK TO BACK HOME GAME, MEANING NO DISRUPTION TO TEAM FUNCTIONING AND HEALING OF PLAYERS. MEANWHILE SHORT WEEK FOR A TRAVELING ROAD TEAM EAGLES
  • PACKERS ACTUALLY HAVE THE 3RD BEST DEFENSIVE LINE AND HAVE GENERATED 12 SACKS SO FAR. WENTZ WILL BE PRESSURED AND IN TROUBLE. THIS IS KEY HERE AS THE PACKERS SECONDARY IS PLAYING ELITE RESULTING IN COVERAGE SACKS FOR THE DL AND VICE VERSA. EAGLES IN MASSIVE TROUBLE ON OFFENSE!
  • MEANWHILE, THE EAGLES HAVE THE 31ST RANKED DEFENSIVE LINE. LOL. AROD WILL FINALLY GET TO SIT BACK AND PICK THIS WEAK EAGLES SECONDARY APART TONIGHT. NO IFS ANDS OR BUTS.

I toyed with the idea of the over, but just not sure PHI can do their part. Prediction 34-13

This one's pretty easy guys..get the rocking chair :cheers3:

View attachment 43229
 
Sunday
  • 251 Carolina Panthers +5½ -107
  • 253 Cleveland Browns +7 +105
  • 263 New England Patriots -7 -108
  • 263 New England Patriots/Buffalo Bills Under 41½ -109
  • 265 Tennessee Titans +3 +108
  • 267 Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Los Angeles Rams Under 48½ -103
  • 271 Minnesota Vikings +101
  • 271 Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears Under 38½ -105
  • 273 Jacksonville Jaguars +2½ -102
  • 276 New Orleans Saints +130
jaguars-cheerleaders-7922.jpg
 
[33-27 +5.23u]
Week- 7-6 +1.21u

Decent comeback yesterday after pathetic 0-3 Thurs. Went 7-3 yesterday

Gonna roll with CIN tonight as they are 7-1 ATS in Eastern time zone since last year,

Monday night favs of 1.5 to 4 only cover 38% since 2010

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Monday
  • 277 Cincinnati Bengals +3½ -108
Tough divisional matchup, PIT without Big Ben obviously. Their defense cannot stop the run at all so I think the Bengals may be able to put together long successful drives, while on the other side it's hard to trust Mason Rudolph to consistently move the ball. It's likely the Bengals will just play much more efficient on both sides of the ball tonight, while things could get really sloppy for PIT and their young, inexperienced QB.

 
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