NFL playoffs round 1

tee*dub said:
already on them for 4 units on the game, not wanting to add.. Would endorse it though.. I am just on it for as much as I want.. Think the TT is a decent hedge... Although probably a push bet..:shake:
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Got it....Lets cash this:cheers:
 
wiseplayer said:
doesn't look like Colts can run. They spread it out more to open the run game. Just my opinion.
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agree.. They go to their "safe place" now.. Which is no huddle Peyton at his best... I have Colts getting 21 minimum 2H and if Chargers happen to go up DD's at some point the TT is almost certainly money..
 
tee please tell me why miami?

seems like a no brainer for the ravens to stomp them on defense
 
ddk997 said:
tee please tell me why miami?

seems like a no brainer for the ravens to stomp them on defense
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Tough to win on the road twice to a playoff caliber team, especially with a rookie QB and with Miami catching 3.5 points, this is a play for me.. In-season revenge, especially at home and then to be dogged has Miami sitting in a very good situational spot.

I'll be honest ddk, and shark will back me up on this--- I really hated this Miami team early and in fact I was on record as saying I thought they were possibly the worst team in the NFL.. At some point I became neutral but the more I looked at them the more I liked what I saw..

1) they don't turn the ball over--- just 13 times all year which leads the NFL
2) they stop the run pretty good (10 ranked run defense)
3) they have a "been there done that" veteran QB playing with a chip on his shoulder..

Now what does Balty do well--

1) Take the ball away (34, tops in the league)
2) run the ball well (4 in the league)

So miami matches up very well with Balty top two strengths... Everyone is pointing to Balty's dominating 27-13 win at Miami early in the year.. I had Balty in that game and it was a pretty easy win (revenge from 2007--see below)... But things have changed dramatically since that game:

1) Ray Lewis is even fatter (I am telling you guys, Ray has really dropped off his play of late.. Looks slow, real slow.)
2) Dolphins have won 9 of last 10 games
3) Wildcat offense, which Balty effectively stopped in Gm1 has been expanded and should be much more effective today..

Also keep in mind. The Dolphins won only one game in 2007, A 22-16 overtime win over Balty. Embarrassing loss for Balty. So the win this year was a big time revenge spot for Balty.. That has flipped now..

Check the stats on in season revenge at home in the playoffs. Historically a pretty good side to be on..

Just my opinion:cheers:
 
I Edo said:
Philly -2.5 (buy the 1/2) HUGE Tomorrow!!!!
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GL-- this has to have you concerned:

  • Eagles averaging just 10.8 points a game in last 4 on the road going 1-2-1
  • Vikings has won 4 of last 5 home games
HAven't made up my mind yet but lean the home dog..:shake:
 
A lot of questions on where I play my 2H TT's.. Lots of places offer them, just have to check around.. I use a little different deal because of some complexities I have with moving money.. Don't want to get into that on a public board:shake:.. If you are still curious PM me... JUst saying,,, what I am playing is available on the mainstream on-line books if you shop around.. Think someone said 5 dimes is in the business and a few others..

I only play specific spots on these.. Most guys that have been around know the spot I like.. historically at least they have been my highest percentage wins.. Playoffs are tricky though because everyone is playing so conservative and defenses tend to take more control of games--- as we saw last night..
 
Streakin said:
Love the Phins here Tee.

Also like Minny. I am waiting to see if 3.5 pops in that one. Think we can get 3.5 in the minny game too?

Good luck today
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Streak-- I want to play the Vikings, I love the spot and I love getting fg+ at home in the playoffs but I just can't get over the fact that Tavares Jackson is going to touch the ball 70+ times... He is adequate in a low pressure regular season setting, just adequate, and I don't think he is ready for the intensity of a playoff setting against a very good defense..

When everyone tells you--"just don't fuck up kid".. that makes you fuck up more IMO... I wish he would say , fuck it, and let his insticnts take over (like v. Ariz) but I am afraid that won't happen.

I do think Jared Allen is going to be in McNabbs grill all day long... I like that matchup a lot..

Having said that, yes I lean the Vikes but I don't think you will see 3.5...
 
I am with you on Miami (+3.5) for 3 units and am leaning Philly (-3) in the later game. I can see their blitz packages really giving jackson fits all day long.
 
tee*dub said:
Streak-- I want to play the Vikings, I love the spot and I love getting fg+ at home in the playoffs but I just can't get over the fact that Tavares Jackson is going to touch the ball 70+ times... He is adequate in a low pressure regular season setting, just adequate, and I don't think he is ready for the intensity of a playoff setting against a very good defense..

When everyone tells you--"just don't fuck up kid".. that makes you fuck up more IMO... I wish he would say , fuck it, and let his insticnts take over (like v. Ariz) but I am afraid that won't happen.

I do think Jared Allen is going to be in McNabbs grill all day long... I like that matchup a lot..

Having said that, yes I lean the Vikes but I don't think you will see 3.5...
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Still leaning myself on the Vikes....my place just bumped it up to +3.5
....i can buy up to +4 for -120......hmmmmmmmm:popcorn:
 
3rd & Long said:
Did you know that T Jackson has the highest QB rating in the NFL over the last 4 weeks?
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Good point .. suspect a lot of that came from Ariz blowout... Watching him against the Giants 2nd team defense was just sooo painful...
 
posted this in Nuts thread, copied here:

Look at the spot Balty was in earlier this year when they visited Miami and let me know what you think.. It was a perfect spot for them.. Cameron aspect, revenge from last years loss, losing streak..

The Ravens (3-3) won for the first time in their five visits to Miami, and for the first time in nearly a month.

"This was going to make or break our season," Suggs said. "When you lose three or four games in a row, players are only human, and they stop believing. We've got guys believing."

Just saying, situationally it couldn't have been a better spot for Balty in game 1 this year... Game 2?
 
stats from game 1:

Pretty evenly matched and Balty was absolutely playing to save their season..

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3></TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
bal.gif
</TD><TD>
mia.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>22</TD><TD>21</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>357</TD><TD>359</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>217</TD><TD>288</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>140</TD><TD>71</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>7-67</TD><TD>6-28</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>3rd Down Conversions</TD><TD>6-13</TD><TD>5-13</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>4th Down Conversions</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>0-1</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>31:43</TD><TD>28:17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
tee*dub said:
posted this in Nuts thread, copied here:

Look at the spot Balty was in earlier this year when they visited Miami and let me know what you think.. It was a perfect spot for them.. Cameron aspect, revenge from last years loss, losing streak..

The Ravens (3-3) won for the first time in their five visits to Miami, and for the first time in nearly a month.

"This was going to make or break our season," Suggs said. "When you lose three or four games in a row, players are only human, and they stop believing. We've got guys believing."

Just saying, situationally it couldn't have been a better spot for Balty in game 1 this year... Game 2?
Click to expand...

Point I am trying to make is-- look beyond the score of game one.. What was the situation for both teams then, and what is the situation now.. I conclude, in Miami they were pretty even then, on the field and statistically-- actually Miami had a slight edge... Now, many of the things that have change now favor the phins (listed above),, getting 3.5 at home..

Yep,, win lose or draw---phins are the right side.. IMHO... can't come to any other conclusion..

This is one of those games that seems like an easy side and the public runs to it..

Again, you don't have to agree with what I am saying just trying to give a more cerebral explanation as to how I determine sides, since I have time today..:cheers:
 
tee that is a good explanation of how you selected miami.

good luck oppsite on this one, one of us will win .
 
TEE, Any concerns with how Minny struggled for most of the second half last week against NYG second string defense? Are am I just sounding like a square?
 
bornloser said:
TEE, Any concerns with how Minny struggled for most of the second half last week against NYG second string defense? Are am I just sounding like a square?
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Ya that is a big concern and two weeks in a row the home crowd really hasn't been much of a factor in the game..

Also, peterson is putting the ball on the ground way too much and Philly is good at that game as well..

gl today born..
 
zero pressure on the rookie qb, and Pennington looks like a rookie. I am sure jets fans are laughing. This one is not looking good.
 
Thanks Tee, GL to you too.

This first one is not shaping up too well for us. As far as the home crowd, they had to "beg" them to come out this week for a playoff game!

If the Vikes fall behind, can we trust Jackson to get them back into the game? Really up in the air on this one. I'll be curious to see where you end up on this one.
 
both offenses suck in the first half.. Flacco made one or two decent throws and Miami finally got pressure on him at the end of 1H and we saw the results.. We'll see more of that... should be 6-3 Balty.. Pennington can't look worse than he did in 1H.. Best is back.

add:

Mi +0.5 2H, -110; 2 units

independent bet.. like it
 
tee*dub said:
both offenses suck in the first half.. Flacco made one or two decent throws and Miami finally got pressure on him at the end of 1H and we saw the results.. We'll see more of that... should be 6-3 Balty.. Pennington can't look worse than he did in 1H.. Best is back.

add:

Mi +0.5 2H, -110; 2 units

independent bet.. like it
Click to expand...

Took it as well. If Chad can just stop throwing picks, it might have a better chance
 
well, missed the first game.. Said going in that I think one of the Home dogs win SU.. We now know it wasn't the Phins.. so..

add:

Minny ML +150; 4 units
 
Tee
Thanks for the reply. I'll reach out to you later in the week. :15_10_5:
Minny plus the pionts looks like the best play of the weekend. I hoping Philly can pull out a win and plays NYG next week. I think Philly is the one team who has NYG number and can knock them out of the playoffs.
GL
 
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