First writeup, the game I will be attending, my 2013 Buffalo Bills :announce:
Patriots/Bills- Quite a bit of unknowns- Who will step up offensively for NE, who is starting for Buffalo @qb.... I originally leaned to a home dog play but in the end I think the over is a better wager. Offensively, the Bills are coming in with a top 5 rb in the game who (provided he stays healthy) is in his prime and will put up career best numbers this season. OC Hackett has already stated they will give him a ton of carries this season, I would think even more now with the question marks at qb. Last season Spiller got 7 carries in the first matchup, 9 in the second. I would think he gets 20+ on sunday. Regardless of who starts at qb, I think the run game will be able to set up the pass nicely. It's not like the Bills need to stretch the field immediately- with the depth at wr they now can afford to bring Stevie J into the slot and get quick looks to offset pressure from the Pats d. Also with Spiller/Fred Jackson, Buffalo has a great screen game that should take the pressure off a little as well. Efficiency is really all Buffalo needs to move the ball, and I think they can get it sunday from either EJ or Tuel. There is a good possibility that both qbs are better than Fitz, so regarding the total I think it's a non factor. There is no doubt in my mind the Bills offense got much better this season, but there is quite a bit of doubt on the other side of the ball.....
As much as I would like to think the Bills defense got so much better, I can't help but be skeptical. Alonso has shown flashes of being a solid player, and Lawson had a pretty solid preseason and looks to be a pretty good fit. Weakness at LB has been a huge problem for Buffalo for 6+ years, so hopefully they can provide a little stability. However, the biggest problem currently is without a doubt the cb position. Gilmore was far and away the most talented corner (I think top 5 ability) but with him out, the secondary looks like a rag tag group of bums- not something you want when facing Tom Brady. The best player in the secondary is fs Byrd, who is currently dealing with plantar fasciitis, and with missing the preseason you really don't know what you are getting with him. Other than that you have Brooks who has shown some ability but also has gotten roasted, and Leotis McKelvin who outside of his special teams play has been the bane of my existence for quite some time. I do think NE may not be as electric in the passing game with so many ? at the wr position and no Gronk, but Brady is the type that can make a wr look good. The Bills had a horrific run D last season and it remains to be seen whether or not they will improve drastically, so I wouldn't be surprised to see NE pound the run to start the game. Don't forget NE averaged 6.2 ypc 247 yards last time at the Ralph. In the end I think it's very possible both teams put up 24+, so the over is the play for me. I won't be playing halfs as I will be at the game, but if it is close/Bills lead at half, NE should get a look...specifically team total. JMO
