NFL Free Agency

TheCashMan said:
Home: Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Bills, Dolphins, Cardinals, Colts,49ers
Away: Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Rams,Seahawks

6-2 at home - 5-3 on the road --- maybe 4-4...

just throwing it out there...
Click to expand...

when i decide on a team win total, i never look at the schedule and try to figure wins and losses, although i know a lot of people do. but looking at that schedule, looks like they finally play some real defenses. if that total comes in at 13.5, i'll have to break my rule and hit the under. i still might at 13 or 12.5.
 
orangemonk said:
isn't the schedule a pretty key part of a team win total? what benefit is there in ignoring it?
Click to expand...

no. i don't look at the opposing team for patriots games. if i like the line, i bet the house. don't over think things om.
 
An important wrinkle has been learned about the contract Darrelle Revis has agreed to with the Patriots.


It has widely been reported as a one-year, $12 million deal, which is accurate. Revis will earn $12 million this season.


But for salary-cap accounting purposes, and to protect Revis from being assigned the franchise tag in 2015, the sides have added a second year to the pact in 2015 that would pay Revis $20 million and count $25 million against the salary cap.


The $20 million is an astronomical figure, as is the $25 million cap charge. That makes it unlikely the Patriots would pay it, thus making Revis an unrestricted free agent in 2015 or one of the highest-paid players in football.


The second year helps the Patriots spread out the salary-cap charges for Revis over two seasons instead of taking one $12 million salary-cap hit in 2014. Revis' cap charge for 2014 is now $7 million.


Here is a breakdown of the deal for those into specifics:


2014
Cap value: $7M
Cash value: $12M
Signing bonus: $10M
Roster bonus: $500K ($33.33K per game if on 46-man roster up to 15 games)
Base salary: $1.5M


2015
Cap value: $25M
Cash value: $20M
Roster bonus-1: $12M (earned on April 1, 2015, if club exercises option prior to end of 2014 league year)
Roster bonus-2: $500,000 ($33.33K per game if on 46-man roster up to 15 games)
Base salary: $7.5M
 
ClubDirt said:
when i decide on a team win total, i never look at the schedule and try to figure wins and losses, although i know a lot of people do. but looking at that schedule, looks like they finally play some real defenses. if that total comes in at 13.5, i'll have to break my rule and hit the under. i still might at 13 or 12.5.
Click to expand...

2014 NFL REGULAR-SEASON WIN TOTALS (CG Technology)
[TABLE="class: tableizer-table"]
<tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">[TR="class: tableizer-firstrow"]
[TH="bgcolor: #104E8B"]Team[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #104E8B"]2014 win total[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #104E8B"]2013 wins[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Broncos[/TD]
[TD]11 (over -115)[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]49ers[/TD]
[TD]11 (over +100)[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Seahawks[/TD]
[TD]11(over -110)[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Packers[/TD]
[TD]10 (over -105)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Patriots[/TD]
[TD]10 (over -125)[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Saints[/TD]
[TD]9.5 (over -105)[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bengals[/TD]
[TD]9 (over -115)[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Colts[/TD]
[TD]9 (over -115)[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steelers[/TD]
[TD]9 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bears[/TD]
[TD]8.5 (over -105)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eagles[/TD]
[TD]8.5 (over -125)[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Panthers[/TD]
[TD]8.5 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ravens[/TD]
[TD]8.5 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Texans[/TD]
[TD]8.5 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chargers[/TD]
[TD]8 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chiefs[/TD]
[TD]8 (over -125)[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cowboys[/TD]
[TD]8 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Falcons[/TD]
[TD]8 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lions[/TD]
[TD]8 (over -115)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dolphins[/TD]
[TD]7.5 (-over -125)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cardinals[/TD]
[TD]7 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Giants[/TD]
[TD]7 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Redskins[/TD]
[TD]7 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bills[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Browns[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -105)[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buccaneers[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -130)[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jets[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rams[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -120)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Titans[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Vikings[/TD]
[TD]6.5 (over -110)[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Raiders[/TD]
[TD]5 (over +110)[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaguars[/TD]
[TD]4.5 (over +100)[/TD]
[TD]4

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Detox said:
no. i don't look at the opposing team for patriots games. if i like the line, i bet the house. don't over think things om.
Click to expand...

i mean... there's a big difference between playing 10 playoff-caliber teams than 3. I don't think that's overthinking things.
 
it is, but my philosophy on that is it's hard enough figuring out how good the team you want to bet is going to be. by deciding on your bet based on their schedule, you're basically trying to make that judgment on 13 or so teams. i don't think that's productive. that being said, i do consider the division because it's easier to focus on just a couple of teams and how your team has done against those teams over the years. for instance, i'd look at a team in the nfc west differently than one in the afc west. but i focus more on how i think the team i'm betting is perceived vs. how i think they will be rather than trying to figure out how all of the teams on their schedule will be. not saying there is a right or wrong way, that's just how i do it.

that being said, given what cashman has posted, my opinion of denver last season was that they just weren't that good and it just took a good defense to show it. they finally played against one in the super bowl. but looking at next season, they play just about every great defense in the league. now, what i said above would dictate not bothering with that but i think we can all agree that seattle, SF, arizona and cincy, at least, will have very good defenses next season. even if we are wrong on some, denver didn't play anything close to that defensive schedule last season. i can't imagine i'll be wrong about that.

the hope is that people get excited about these high profile signings denver made and push the win total to 13.5. if that happens, i will most certainly bet the under. i'll probably still bet it at 13. i doubt it's 12.5 but i think that under is a good bet too. i think people will be disappointed with denver next season generally and quite surprised when the offense isn't nerly as good playing against good defenses during the regular season, for a change.
 
Playoff caliber teams change every year though, I understand the thought process
 
cashman, did that come from a book? i rarely bet these win totals so i may be off (although i always pick a few just to organize my thoughts) but i'd be very surprised to see denver at 11 after this week.
 
ClubDirt said:
cashman, did that come from a book? i rarely bet these win totals so i may be off (although i always pick a few just to organize my thoughts) but i'd be very surprised to see denver at 11 after this week.
Click to expand...

yes

CG Technologies – formerly Cantor Gaming – has already posted win totals for the 2014 regular season.

i posted in its own thread as well.. thought it would be interesting to watch the lines move as they posted before the FA signings

on a side note- .. need to see the scheduling as well but the Bronco's away schedule "on paper" looks dam tough.....
 
TheCashMan said:
yes

CG Technologies – formerly Cantor Gaming – has already posted win totals for the 2014 regular season.

i posted in its own thread as well.. thought it would be interesting to watch the lines move as they posted before the FA signings

on a side note- .. need to see the scheduling as well but the Bronco's away schedule "on paper" looks dam tough.....
Click to expand...

I bet the Patriots wins total goes up to 11.
 
just a copy and paste from rumor mill from espn:

We now are two full days into the free-agent frenzy. Many players have signed contracts, but the rumor mill continues to churn on when it comes to the remaining free agents on the market.
<offer>
Here is an overview of the latest buzz from across the NFL as of Thursday evening:
  • Earlier today, we took a detailed look at all of the prospective teams that have rumored interest in free-agent Steve Smith. The Baltimore Ravens topped the list, and sure enough, that will be Smitty's first stop. ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter this evening tweeted: "Here we go: Former Panthers WR Steve Smith is scheduled to fly tonight to Baltimore to spend Friday meeting with Ravens, per source."
  • Free-agent RB Anthony Dixon met with the Tennessee Titans Thursday but left without a contract. He posted a tweet that he now is on his way to Buffalo. The Buffalo Bills already have C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, so Dixon would be a third wheel if he inks with them, just as he has been with the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The New Orleans Saints made a splash Tuesday by signing safety Jairus Byrd, but they aren't done trying to upgrade their DBs. As ESPN Saints reporter Mike Triplett noted this evening, "The New Orleans Saints have continued to show interest in building their own version of the Seattle Seahawks' 'Legion of Boom' secondary. According to ESPN NFL Insider John Clayton, the Saints are expected to host cornerback Brandon Browner on a free-agent visit at some point after he wraps up a visit with the Washington Redskins. Browner also visited Thursday with the New England Patriots. "
  • After meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday, Seahawks free-agent CB Walter Thurmond tweeted that he was "off to San Fran." Luring Thurmond away from their division rivals would be a coup for the 49ers, but, as ESPN Niners reporter Bill Williamson notes, "Because the 49ers have limited cap room, they may be hard pressed to keep Tarell Brown -- who reportedly has received interested from Miami -- and sign Thurmond."
  • This afternoon, Manish Mehta reported that, "The Daily News has learned that the Jets have been in communication with veteran TE Brandon Pettigrew, who is also contemplating interest from the Lions and Raiders. The free-agent tight end is expected to have a deal in place with a team shortly, according to sources."
  • This morning, we looked at the myriad teams known to have interest in WR Emmanuel Sanders, including the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with which he met Thursday. Next up? The Kansas City Chiefs on Friday, per NFL.com's Ian Rapoport. The Jets also remain interested in Sanders, according to Manish Mehta of the Daily News.
  • The Indianapolis Colts signed O-lineman Phil Costa today, and ESPN Colts reporter <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/120796/signing-costa-likely-ends-pursuit-of-mack" target="_blank">Mike Wells reported that "signing Costa drastically reduces the odds of them pursuing [Cleveland Browns restricted free agent C Alex Mack], according to an NFL source."
  • Late last month, the Seahawks released Sidney Rice in a salary-cap dump, but NFL.com's Ian Rapaport tweeted this evening that, "I’m told the #Seahawks are now interested in re-signing WR Sidney Rice."
  • And finally, RB Ben Tate has made it to Cleveland to meet with the Browns Thursday evening after a weather delay, according to Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. The Browns would be a terrific landing spot for Tate's fantasy football value.
</offer>
 
So disgusted with the Lions but then again what is new.

Resigning Pettigrew for 4 mill a year is just pathetic, the guy is part of the problem, not the solution.

Signing Tate isnt bad, but giving him 7 mill a year is horrendous. Sure they needed another WR, but the draft is loaded with them, 1st or 2nd round could easily find some help, a lot cheaper. Or could have gotten a bargain on Emmanuel Sanders cheap with a one year prove it deal.

Still have not addressed anything on defense, only got worse with the losses of Willie Young and Delmas, 2 guys who arent great, but havent been replaced as of yet.

So the Lions made basically two signings, as always splash offensive signing to sell tickets and promote putting pts on the board.

I am going to guess they are targeting Ok St corner in draft and if he's gone, who knows, another WR or Dennard from Sparty at 10? Too early to take a safety there unless they trade down, which they never do.

As of today, the Lions are slightly better on offense from LY and worse on defense.

I wonder if they know defense wins championships or care.
 
Defense win championships when the saints or packers won the SB? Offensive league with the rule changes, fine with building around an offense and hoping for the best on defense. Still think they're targeting Evans in the draft.
 
orangemonk said:
Defense win championships when the saints or packers won the SB? Offensive league with the rule changes, fine with building around an offense and hoping for the best on defense. Still think they're targeting Evans in the draft.
Click to expand...

Easy to name 2 teams wit shit defenses that won tha sb recently, but those 2 teams had legit HOF qbs playin.
 
that saints D got dumb amount of turnovers.....they werent the seahawks, but it wasnt dogshit out there either
 
tru said:
Easy to name 2 teams wit shit defenses that won tha sb recently, but those 2 teams had legit HOF qbs playin.
Click to expand...

regardless, offense won their championships. most elite defensive teams probably have a legit HOF on the team too.
 
orangemonk said:
regardless, offense won their championships. most elite defensive teams probably have a legit HOF on the team too.
Click to expand...

Saints had a pick 6 and held the colts to only 17 points. Tha O didn't need to be that great that day to beat Peyton. So honestly that one isn't that legit for tha O winning that bowl. Even wit GB caused 3 turnovers on d I will give u that one since they almost gave up 400 total yards. But tha argument would be packers have a legit hof qb that carried them, stafford isn't a hof qb. He has shown he can't carry tha team like that, he would need much more help on d to get there
 
go back over the past 20 years of NFL and give me the elite defensive teams that won the SB. it's a dumb old adage that sounds cool in quotes and movies, doesn't make it true. defense can absolutely win a championship, but an offense absolutely can too. usually it's going to be some combination of both, but plenty of great offenses have won championships without an elite defense.
 
orangemonk said:
go back over the past 20 years of NFL and give me the elite defensive teams that won the SB. it's a dumb old adage that sounds cool in quotes and movies, doesn't make it true. defense can absolutely win a championship, but an offense absolutely can too. usually it's going to be some combination of both, but plenty of great offenses have won championships without an elite defense.
Click to expand...

And those elite offenses have had elite hof qbs. Ur argument isn't valid when ur tryin to bring Detroit into this cause stafford will never be on that level.
 
Wasn't there a stat during this past SB that showed all the times that the top offense played the top defense in the title game and the top defense has won 6 of the 7 times (now 7 out of 8 times)?
 
P-Unit said:
Wasn't there a stat during this past SB that showed all the times that the top offense played the top defense in the title game and the top defense has won 6 of the 7 times (now 7 out of 8 times)?
Click to expand...

last year was only the second time 1 faced 1.

"This is the 19th time that a regular-season scoring champ has reached the Super Bowl. The previous 18 teams were 10-8 in the title game " so now top scoring team in NFL is 10-9 in the super bowl. high scoring teams are certainly capable of a super bowl title.

#1 Offense has 10 titles.
#1 Defense has 12 titles.

BUT GUYS DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!

:announce::shake:
 
orangemonk said:
last year was only the second time 1 faced 1.

"This is the 19th time that a regular-season scoring champ has reached the Super Bowl. The previous 18 teams were 10-8 in the title game " so now top scoring team in NFL is 10-9 in the super bowl. high scoring teams are certainly capable of a super bowl title.

#1 Offense has 10 titles.
#1 Defense has 12 titles.

BUT GUYS DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!!!!

:announce::shake:
Click to expand...

Best stat to use would be best O vs best D in tha bowl, how's that worked out for tha O? Some of those top Os that won tha bowl had great Ds also some top 5 Os also. U keep diggin but u can't find gold

:searching:
 
thar iz no guarantee that da best O is gunna play da best D. itz only happund 2ce in fiddy supa bowls so y would 1 build dere teem round dat?
 
Rams defense won them their only superbowl and the Colts defense pretty much dominated the entire playoffs that season they won
 
I don't know how pointing out the top ranked offense has 10 titles and the top ranked D has 12 (about equal) is coming up short. offense clearly can win championships but the coaches don't beat that into your head like a pop song on the radio so don't consider that it might not be the truth.
 
kjohnson109 said:
Rams defense won them their only superbowl and the Colts defense pretty much dominated the entire playoffs that season they won
Click to expand...

Correct.

Om it is legit when tha best O has played tha best D in tha sb close to 20% of all bowl games.
 
orangemonk said:
Defense win championships when the saints or packers won the SB? Offensive league with the rule changes, fine with building around an offense and hoping for the best on defense. Still think they're targeting Evans in the draft.
Click to expand...

Yes they did. Am I missing something or was the Packers #2 rated defense that year terrible? Saints/Colts was two average defenses and the team that played better defense (int return for td won saints the game) in the game ended up on top.

Two different philosophies I guess, but whenever those juggernaut offensive teams meet a team with a good to great defense, seems we all know who comes out on top right? Hence why we unloaded on the Seahawks?? Patriots/Giants twice are a good example if not this past years super bowl, rams/patriots, steelers/cards etc. More times than not is the point, its kind of like saying the grass is green but not all the grass is green all the time. Its not 100%, but i would take my chances.

Give me an offense that can score 20+ with a defense that can give up 17 or less. I dont want offenses that can put up 30 points plus per game but cant stop a nose bleed on D.

And if there are exceptions to the rule, I bet you will find a mega elite qb leading the way. Stafford isnt even close to a Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Peyton and if he didnt have Megatron plucking hailmary passes out of the sky, Shaun Hill may have been starting games.

At what point do the Lions address the secondary or linebackers seriously instead of half assing it? Your acceptance of the Pettigrew and Tate signing are exactly why the Lions dont care, dont get it and never will. Fans keep showing up, blowing up the next "ticket sales" signing and seeing what? Reggie Bush, lets get season tickets, that first game was amazing, what a difference maker? Jahvid Best? Ryan Broyles? Charles Rogers? MIke Williams, no Roy Williams, Nate Burleson, oh Titus Young, and back to Pettigrew. How many playoff wins with great offenses from the Barry years up til now? NOTHING!

These clowns didnt even bother to bring in a corner to speak to in free agency and the only safety they talked to is a stiff special teamer who cant cover in Ihedigbo.

Stop defending these losers!!
 
many of the games the defenses were basically equal, so that 12-10 mark is almost irrelevant. i would like to see where it is an obvious advantage, like the 21st ranked defense vs the 1st. #4 vs #5 says nothing to me if #5 wins the super bowl. like san fran/balty, those defenses were a wash.
 
Bi9hXohCIAAZ4Pb.jpg:large
 
Well, defense wins Super Bowls. Here is why. These are the average offense and defensive scoring numbers for Super Bowl teams:
Super Bowl Winner: 25.59 points per game, 15.86 points per game allowed
Super Bowl Loser: 25.67 points per game, 17.00 points per game allowed
During the regular season, the team that loses the Super Bowl actually scores slightly more often than the champion. However, they allow a much more significant 1.14 points per game on average than the winning team. That number continues to hold up in other statistics. The Total Defense of the Super Bowl loser is ranked 9.41 in the NFL on average, while the Total Defense of the winning team is ranked 6.5 on average.
 
These numbers hold up when talking about DVOA, as well. Super Bowl winners and Super Bowl losers are near equals in offensive DVOA. On average, they are both ranked ~7th on offense. However, the Super Bowl winner is ranked about 8.7th on defense, while the loser was ranked 11.6th on D. When almost everything is equal except for one category, it's probably worth noting the importance of that category. And it might be even more important since DVOA only goes back to 1991 and were aren't counting the less significant games, the ones that included players like Len Dawson and people were still referring to a pass as a "forward pass".
 
- Since 1990, teams ranked 1st or 2nd in scoring defense are 10-2 in the Super Bowl. Both losses (2010 Packers over Steelers, 2004 Patriots over Eagles) came to a team that was also ranked 1st or 2nd in scoring defense. Overall, teams ranked 1st or 2nd in scoring defense are 22-11.
 
- 31 of 46 Super Bowl winners had a top 5 scoring defense. 23 of 46 Super Bowl losers had a top 5 scoring defense. 30 Super Bowl winners had a top 5 total defense. 18 losers were top 5 in total defense.
 
among the 45 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team — measured by points allowed that season— has won 29 times
 
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