NFL and use of advanced ANALYTICS

[Sammy Meatballs]

The NFl is now moving towards using advanced analytics to help with game decisions and game plans..

I read this is the future of the league-- Eagles were going for it on fourth down a lot last year-


Summary from the article---

Third down efficiency is a bullshit stat-- Its unimportant--- Whats important is 1st and 2nd down production-- Elite teams get big yards on first and second down.

Analystics suggest that teams should do everything they can to keep the ball-- This is why coaches are going more than ever on fourth down.

Teams should not run the ball on first down- They should pass the ball more ----


One NFL team runs run plays to the opposite bench of the defensive linemans bench realizing that the defensive lineman run more to the bench than they do in the actual game--

I think one area where analytics can be used is 2 minute drives--Coaches are clueless with when to use their timeouts-- They usually let too much clock drain off while trying to quickly get to the line. Guys like TOMLIN REID are totally unaware of the time in late game situations.

If a team was smart and employed MIT statistical experts they will win--- This is why Marvin lewis and the old school guys are being fired-- the game has changed--

THe game is about analytics, fresh ideas, creativeness, tracking player data, tracking player efficiecy, tracking stats.

The game is not the old school mentality-- The easiest way to spot winners is to bet vs the old school coaches-- they will be exposed soon vs the teams that use analytics.

 

[Capaholic]

People like to equate mismanagement of timeouts with not understanding analytics. The Chiefs and Reid were one of the first to utilize this. They brought in Brad Childress to help with it as well. And it’s no surprise Nagy and Pederson are at the forefront of the movement seeing as where they came from. Reid does in fact need someone monitoring time out strategy for sure.

 

[KJ]

Solve some of that real quick, every time offense runs a play to their own bench side a D End or LB can just accidentally roll up on the leg of the coach and/or O coordinator

RetroVK style

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

People like to equate mismanagement of timeouts with not understanding analytics. The Chiefs and Reid were one of the first to utilize this. They brought in Brad Childress to help with it as well. And it’s no surprise Nagy and Pederson are at the forefront of the movement seeing as where they came from. Reid does in fact need someone monitoring time out strategy for sure.

Yes many of the offensive coordinators just call a game with whatever they feel to call.

Other than the first 10 scripted plays there is very little analytical approach to clock management.

Ex. A Todd Bowles or John fox coached team us trailing 28-14 with 7 minutes left. They have the bell at midfield 4 th and 10. They eject to punt the ball.

Nobody questions their logic even though it’s old school risk adverse thinking. They are essentially giving the game away and conceding the loss.

Matt Patricia is another weird coach. He was down in one game by 14 and ejected on 4 th and goal from the 20 to kick a useless fgoal to be down by 11 with 4 minutes remaining. He then doesent do an insides kick.

I think teams should get help on when to go on fourth and 1 like Bellichek who decides early to kick the fgoal vs Steelers. Totally wrong decision. It’s not the confident. call.

On other hand sometimes coaches are too confident. Peterson ejected to send Elliot out for a 53 yard fgoal vs rams which he missed.

The correct analytical call was to punt there. Rams had no timeouts left. They would likely be pinned inside their 10 yard line. They could get off maybe 3-4 plays in the middle of the field before time runs out.

Pederson screwed that decision up.

Saints also with the run to the outside that was fumbled for a touchback was stupid. They wanted the fgoal. Why run close to the out of bounds and risk click being stopped?

Just run it up the middle. Secure ball and kick the fgoal and go up by 6.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Football for the most part is coached by Ego based testosterone old school coaches. They aren’t that smart or forward thinking.

A hand full of coaches are smart guys like Bellichek Carrol Peyton etc. The new younger coaches Shanahan nagy mcvay all smart guys

But the rest of coaches are actually not too bright.

McCarthy Zimmer Wilkes Marvin Lewis Hue Tomlin Koetter Rivera Gase Bowles Marrone Garrett Both grudens ate complete rubbish as head coaches.

They just aren’t smart guys. Closed minded guys.

 

[raems]

Clock management is not analytics it’s common sense.

Analytics is the minutia - player movement, situational success rates based on formation/play call, nutrition/hydration and other stuff we never see on the day to day inside team buildings.

Knowing when to call timeout isn’t analytics, calling it that actually demeans what the practice actually is.

 

[raems]

A lot of this is about how everything old timer football people take as gospel is factually incorrect about the running game.

Best time to run is 2nd and short, 2nd and 10 runs are fireable offenses unless you’re sitting on a giant lead, running out of jumbo formations is a good way to voluntarily avoid gaining yards, running out of spread formations on goal line is a great way to gain yards, and a successful play action game has absolutely nothing at all to do with having a good running game.

 

[scarf31]

A lot of this is about how everything old timer football people take as gospel is factually incorrect about the running game.

Best time to run is 2nd and short, 2nd and 10 runs are fireable offenses unless you’re sitting on a giant lead, running out of jumbo formations is a good way to voluntarily avoid gaining yards, running out of spread formations on goal line is a great way to gain yards, and a successful play action game has absolutely nothing at all to do with having a good running game.

You nailed it, Raems. You should be passing on 1st down to set up the run. Dogshit offensive coordinators/HC's on teams like the Jets and Seabags, 100% lost. Seattle I would make a contention is the biggest smoke and mirrors team in the league...they are being saved by a 1st ballot HOF QB who saves their ass time and time again...a guy like Zimmer wanting to play "smashmouth" football is a fossil in this day and age.

Give it to Andy...he has evolved more as he's gotten older and what he's done in KC is different than what he did with D5 in Philly. Timeout usage/clock skill will never be his forte and its a damn shame because he is a damn good coach.

But could not agree more with the stance on running the football. And playcalling is only a part of that. Pederson in Philly who is as analytically driven as anyone has gone for a bunch of 4th downs....probably the right call....but I can recall at LEAST 2 or 3 times, his vanilla slow-developing running play call on 4th and 1 negated the analytic advantage he gained by going for it in the first place.

So its a balance for sure.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Agree with Zimmer and Patricia being lost--

If you are an owner why do you hire ZIMMER and PATRCIA when their mentality is out dated-- Their mentality is old schooled-- They are trying to win the game with defense and a running game--

Not sure that will work anymore--

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076943107676098562

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1076943107676098562

F hue. Good for baker.

Stuck it to the baby boomers

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I was looking for your Baker thread merry xmas sammy