Anyone who doesn’t like preseason football obviously isn’t a total bettor.
Of the 19 preseason games played through Wednesday, the under has profited 15 times. That includes one push as teams combined to score an average of 30.1 points per game.
"In general, you’re talking about not as much emphasis on scoring; it’s more about how you play," says BetCRIS senior linesmaker Shane Catford.
"Teams are testing out new plays and guys in different positions so the jel isn’t quite there. There’s nowhere near the same intensity as during the regular season."
A success rate of nearly 79 percent is pretty intense in itself and Catford admits sharp bettors have taken a liking to the under during the preseason.
There’s just nothing sportsbooks can do about it.
Information on the amount of time a team`s top players will be on the field is limited, leaving oddsmakers and bettors guessing. To combat this, oddsmakers begin with a total of 35 points - also the mean total of this year`s preseason games - and adjust accordingly, depending on a team’s perceived defense and offense.
A solid offense against a weak defense for example, will produce a total of 37 1/2 like it did last week between the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions
"That’s a good starting point," Catford says of the 35-point total. "[But] anything can happen, like turnovers, that’s why you can’t open the total at 28 or something silly like that. When it comes to the starters, they play the biggest role as far as scoring."
To avoid injuries, teams often play their starters only for a quarter, sometimes less. But as the preseason wears on, starters tend to see more time, putting the current under trend at risk.
Friday night for example, the San Diego Chargers and Chicago Bears expect to play their starters for the entire first half.
Moves like that aren’t uncommon as preseason rolls on. Coaches usually use the third game as a final tune-up game for their starters. The first two weeks, and final game of the preseason, are typically reserved for younger players battling for positions and roster spots.
"Betting the under is a catch-22 this week because you’re going to have more guys starting," says Catford. "The first and last weeks of preseason are the ones to watch out for as far as totals."
Oddsmakers do adjust, but the changes are only minor. "About half a point," says Catford.
