nfl 8.18


Resident Bad Ass
when will the overs hit?!?! this is getting pathetic!! tonight, of course, the unders are getting pounded!! (the linemovement looks normal so i don't see any reason to jump on the over train-like i did last night)...i hate betting WITH the public (especially when there is a 60%+ consensus) but imo, taking all 3 unders tonight will hit no worse than 2-1...suggestions and comments welcome...
I like all three 'overs' tonight. I'm showing 80%+ on the unders, and all teams will be playing their second game tonight, with some of them coming off truly pathetic game 1's.
jump...i was really planning on it...but after going an unexpected 0-2 last night, i dont want to dig myself in too big a whole (payout is this tuesday)...i KNOW these overs will start hitting as the starters will be getting more playing time (we will begin to see reverse linemovement at this point...which is when i will start playing overs)...imo, there is nothing in the lines which leads me to believe that anyone (with any money) has any strong feelings toward the over...w/ realization that the public is sucking the balls out of the 'under', the line continues to drop; now w/ this in mind, the line should continue to drop, and would allow an overs backer an extra free point or two come game time...i just cant pull the trigger yet (i have a small penis)
Anyone who doesn’t like preseason football obviously isn’t a total bettor.
Of the 19 preseason games played through Wednesday, the under has profited 15 times. That includes one push as teams combined to score an average of 30.1 points per game.
"In general, you’re talking about not as much emphasis on scoring; it’s more about how you play," says BetCRIS senior linesmaker Shane Catford.
"Teams are testing out new plays and guys in different positions so the jel isn’t quite there. There’s nowhere near the same intensity as during the regular season."
A success rate of nearly 79 percent is pretty intense in itself and Catford admits sharp bettors have taken a liking to the under during the preseason.
There’s just nothing sportsbooks can do about it.
Information on the amount of time a team`s top players will be on the field is limited, leaving oddsmakers and bettors guessing. To combat this, oddsmakers begin with a total of 35 points - also the mean total of this year`s preseason games - and adjust accordingly, depending on a team’s perceived defense and offense.
A solid offense against a weak defense for example, will produce a total of 37 1/2 like it did last week between the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions
"That’s a good starting point," Catford says of the 35-point total. "[But] anything can happen, like turnovers, that’s why you can’t open the total at 28 or something silly like that. When it comes to the starters, they play the biggest role as far as scoring."
To avoid injuries, teams often play their starters only for a quarter, sometimes less. But as the preseason wears on, starters tend to see more time, putting the current under trend at risk.
Friday night for example, the San Diego Chargers and Chicago Bears expect to play their starters for the entire first half.
Moves like that aren’t uncommon as preseason rolls on. Coaches usually use the third game as a final tune-up game for their starters. The first two weeks, and final game of the preseason, are typically reserved for younger players battling for positions and roster spots.
"Betting the under is a catch-22 this week because you’re going to have more guys starting," says Catford. "The first and last weeks of preseason are the ones to watch out for as far as totals."
Oddsmakers do adjust, but the changes are only minor. "About half a point," says Catford.
abcs--thelegend said:
Fuck the preseason man.. its to unpredictable.

I've gone 11-3 so far in preseason by just reading the shit that Jimmy has been posting and making some logical assumptions. A lot of these plays have been simple UNDERS.

Don't know what I'll play tonight yet . . .
If you're looking at totals, may want to consider 1st quarter OVERS. 7's across the board look pretty safe to me.
thanks everybody, thanks for that article, and smo1, ive considered this as well....will talk to my local about this play....after viewing tonights scores, the 'overs' almost seem ripe for the picking!!!!