Record: 0-0
I searched for an NFL post from me this season, can't find one. Didn't realize I hadn't posted any picks. I prefer college over pro, watching and betting, but thought I had at least one pick shared somewhere during the season.
But no.
I did share my only NFL Regular Season Wins bet, with reasonings, in Vapster's NFL Week 1 post - NYG Under 5'.
They're currently at 2-11.
They have four games left.
Yes, the competition in those four is almost as bad as or equally as bad as the Giants, but they have to go a perfect 4-0 to beat me.
In other words . . .
"Chicken number one, chicken number two, chicken number three, chicken number four, etc."
(That's me, breaking one of the Cardinal rules of sports betting, counting my chickens before their hatched.)
But I digress.
I stopped by to share a pick today, Tampa Bay.
Just like in college, I have two different models I use to see where the books may have posted a WF (Wrong Fav.)
One of them (WF1) says Atlanta should be the Fav in this game. The record for this play is 31-36, a profitable Fade, but just barely.
I usually don't buy anything unless I have at least 58% working in my favor, and a 36-31 Fade doesn't qualify.
So why did I buy it?
Subcategories.
I break down all my models into various subcategories, hunting for a higher percentage to use for a play ON or Fade AGAINST.
Example.
The 36-31 record is for ALL games.
A subcategory would be when it's a Rd team or a Hm team.
When it's a Rd team, like Atlanta is tonight, the record for this spot is 20-23.
Still not the 58% I use for a bar.
So why did I buy it?
Sub-subcatagories.
Again, handicapping is about digging deeper into systems, models, methods, or whatever you want to call it, to find a higher win percentage to employ.
Without trying to sound too convoluted or technical, a subcategory I track is when one model for picking WF's disagrees with the other model AND there's a point spread differential of a TD or more between them.
WF1 says Atlanta should be the Favorite.
WF2 says Tampa Bay is the correct Fav, by more than a TD spread.
The record for this spot is better than 58%.
So I'm buying the Bucs.
But not right now.
The line opened at TB -5'.
Atlanta money is coming in.
The WAN is now -5, and a couple of houses have already gone to -4'.
No sense buying now as the line is moving in my favor. I'll monitor it throughout the day, hoping I can get the hook knocked off.
The Falcons are coming into this game off a loss to the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks; no shame there.
The Bucs come in off a loss at home to 3-10 New Orleans; a whole lot of shame there.
Atlanta is 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS.
On the Rd they're 2-5 SU and 3-3 ATS.
Tampa Bay is 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS.
At Hm they're 3-3 SU and a pitiful 1-5 ATS, including 1-4 as Hm Favs.
Some pretty ugly numbers for the Bucs, for sure. But there is a truism in sports betting - eventually the pendulum will always swing back the other way.
Hopefully the ATS numbers start to swing back towards the Bucs tonight.
Tampa Bay is in a battle for the division title with the suddenly formidable Carolina Panthers, while the only thing Atlanta is battling for is to stay out of the basement in the division (and to not finish with the worst record in the entire NFL.) The second place team in the NFC South will NOT make the playoffs as a wild card.
A little extra incentive for the Bucs tonight.
My play:
TB (wait to buy)
I searched for an NFL post from me this season, can't find one. Didn't realize I hadn't posted any picks. I prefer college over pro, watching and betting, but thought I had at least one pick shared somewhere during the season.
But no.
I did share my only NFL Regular Season Wins bet, with reasonings, in Vapster's NFL Week 1 post - NYG Under 5'.
They're currently at 2-11.
They have four games left.
Yes, the competition in those four is almost as bad as or equally as bad as the Giants, but they have to go a perfect 4-0 to beat me.
In other words . . .
"Chicken number one, chicken number two, chicken number three, chicken number four, etc."
(That's me, breaking one of the Cardinal rules of sports betting, counting my chickens before their hatched.)
But I digress.
I stopped by to share a pick today, Tampa Bay.
Just like in college, I have two different models I use to see where the books may have posted a WF (Wrong Fav.)
One of them (WF1) says Atlanta should be the Fav in this game. The record for this play is 31-36, a profitable Fade, but just barely.
I usually don't buy anything unless I have at least 58% working in my favor, and a 36-31 Fade doesn't qualify.
So why did I buy it?
Subcategories.
I break down all my models into various subcategories, hunting for a higher percentage to use for a play ON or Fade AGAINST.
Example.
The 36-31 record is for ALL games.
A subcategory would be when it's a Rd team or a Hm team.
When it's a Rd team, like Atlanta is tonight, the record for this spot is 20-23.
Still not the 58% I use for a bar.
So why did I buy it?
Sub-subcatagories.
Again, handicapping is about digging deeper into systems, models, methods, or whatever you want to call it, to find a higher win percentage to employ.
Without trying to sound too convoluted or technical, a subcategory I track is when one model for picking WF's disagrees with the other model AND there's a point spread differential of a TD or more between them.
WF1 says Atlanta should be the Favorite.
WF2 says Tampa Bay is the correct Fav, by more than a TD spread.
The record for this spot is better than 58%.
So I'm buying the Bucs.
But not right now.
The line opened at TB -5'.
Atlanta money is coming in.
The WAN is now -5, and a couple of houses have already gone to -4'.
No sense buying now as the line is moving in my favor. I'll monitor it throughout the day, hoping I can get the hook knocked off.
The Falcons are coming into this game off a loss to the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks; no shame there.
The Bucs come in off a loss at home to 3-10 New Orleans; a whole lot of shame there.
Atlanta is 4-9 SU, 5-7-1 ATS.
On the Rd they're 2-5 SU and 3-3 ATS.
Tampa Bay is 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS.
At Hm they're 3-3 SU and a pitiful 1-5 ATS, including 1-4 as Hm Favs.
Some pretty ugly numbers for the Bucs, for sure. But there is a truism in sports betting - eventually the pendulum will always swing back the other way.
Hopefully the ATS numbers start to swing back towards the Bucs tonight.
Tampa Bay is in a battle for the division title with the suddenly formidable Carolina Panthers, while the only thing Atlanta is battling for is to stay out of the basement in the division (and to not finish with the worst record in the entire NFL.) The second place team in the NFC South will NOT make the playoffs as a wild card.
A little extra incentive for the Bucs tonight.
My play:
TB (wait to buy)
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