NFL 2023

Week 16
Rams -3.5 @121 odds boost to win 1.5u was a typo and should be stake 1.5u to win 1.83u
Rams -4 @-110 to win1u
Game parlay Rams win and over 36.5 @-105 to win 2u

TNF 3-0 +4,83u

Steelers - Bengals under 38.5 @-110 to win 1u
Mixon td yes @110 to win 1.1u
Steelers - Bengals over 3.5 field goals @144 (odds boost) to win 1.44u
Fun ML parlay Bengals / Bills / Colts / Browns / Chiefs / Bears / Eagles / Browns @2700 0.5u to win 13.5u
Live Bengals +21.5 @-110 to win 2u
Bills -12.5 @-110 to win 3u

Saturday 0-6 -9,1u

Packers -4 @-110 to win 2u
Colts +3 @-120 to win 2u
Lions -3 @-105 to win 1u
Bucs - Jags over 43.5 @-110 to win 2u
Cardinals +4 @-110 to win 1u
Pats +7 @100 to win 1u
ML parlay Colts / Packers / Lions / Browns @832 (odds boost) to win 8.32u
Packers-3.5 @-110 to win 1u
Lions -2.5@-110 to win 1u

Sunday 3-6 -7,0 u


Chiefs - Raiders over 40.5 @-110 to win 2u
Raiders +10.5 @-110 to win 1u
Eagles -14 @-110 to win 1 u
Eagles - Giants under 42.5 @-110 to win 1u

Monday 1-3 -3,4u

7-15 -14,67u - lost the big ones and won too few small ones
Overall: 69-73-1 -11,75u

ATS: 38-28-1 +5,88u
Rest: 31-45 -17,63u
 
caboto13 said:
Record update follows

Week 17
ML parlay Browns / Bills / Cowboys / Ravens / Rams because I got a Christmas 100%odds boost so @772 with 2u stake to win 15.44u
Click to expand...
Week 17
Did the math wrong. I got @726 to win 14.52u for the parlay. Still not used to switch between European and American odds when I'm in a hurry.

Winning the parlay would put me above zero, but as I still have to win a parlay with more than two legs this season the Pats probably will win by a hail mary to screw it up.

Bears -2.5 @-115 to win 2u
Bucs -2.5 @-110 to win 2u
ML parlay Texans / Colts / Seahawks @243 to win 2.43u
 
Week 17
ML parlay Browns / Bills / Cowboys / Ravens / Rams @726 to win 14.52u
Bears -2.5 @-115 to win 2u
Bucs -2.5 @-110 to win 2u
ML parlay Texans / Colts / Seahawks @243 to win 2.43u
Bills -14 @-110 to win 2u
Bills TT over 27.5 @-110 to win 2u
Rams -6 @-110 to win 2u
Colts -4 @-110 to win 1u
Texans -4 @-110 to win 1u
Packers ML -110 to win 1u
Packers TT over 22.5 @105 to win 2.1u

5-6 +9,72u
Overall: 74-79-1 -2.03u

ATS: 40-32-1 +1.18u
Rest: 34-47 -3.21u
 
Fun parlay
Ravens ML / Pats ML / Bucs ML / Texans ML / Seahawks ML / Packers ML / Bills ML / Browns +9.5 / Saints ML / 49ers - Rams under 43.5 @18624 to win 94.3u
 
Good start yesterday.

Continue with

Pats ML @-140 to win 1u
Bucs -4 @-110 to win 1u
Trixie Browns +7.5 / Titans +4 / Saints -3 with 1u stake to win 3.22u max.
 
Bucs -4 @-110 to win 3u -> 4u overall

Can't see a scenario, where the Bucs let the Panthers in the game with the division and the playoffs on the line. Panthers were shutout last week and it seems that they have quit on the season.
 
Week 18
Parlay Ravens +10.5 / Texans ML @123 to win 1.23u
Parlay Ravens +7.5 / Bucs ML @103 to win 1.03u
Ravens ML / Pats ML / Bucs ML / Texans ML / Seahawks ML / Packers ML / Bills ML / Browns +9.5 / Saints ML / 49ers - Rams under 43.5 @18624 to win 94.3u
Texans ML @-113 to win 1u
Pats ML @-140 to win 1u
Trixie Browns +7.5 / Titans +4 / Saints -3 with 1u stake to win 3.22u max. -> loss of -0.09u
Bucs -4 @-110 to win 4u
Packers ML (odds boost) @103 to win 2.06u
Packers -3 @-105 to win 1u
Raiders -3 @-113 to win 2u
Bills ML (odds boost) @103 to win 2.06u

8-3 +12.39u
Overall: 82-82-1 +10.36u

ATS: 43-32-1 +8.18u
Rest: 39-50 +2.18u

Could have been worse after being down 11.75u after week 16, but finished +22.11u last two weeks due to your great insights and contibutions here at CTG. I do not have the knowledge of football or betting football like you guys, so my contibutions are rather insignificant. So thanks to all of you to help me get a little profit and having fun reading and sometimes discussing about football :shake:
 
Playoffs
ML parlay Bills / Chiefs (odds boost) @110 to win 2.2u
Texans - Browns over 44.5 @-110 to win 1u
Texans TT over 20,5 @-120 to win 1u
Texans +2.5 @100 to win 1u
Packers +7 @-110 to win 1u
Lions - Rams over 51.5 @-110 to win 1u
Packers TT over 20.5 @-120 to win 1u

5-1 +3.9u

Have an 11-leg-fav-parlay for 0.5u stake to win around 8u with only Bills ML pending. With the posted two-leg parlay a 10u win, if Bills win.
Thought about hedging, but can't imagine a scenario where the Steelers pull out a win. If they, so be it, but in similiar situations in the past, hedging cost me only money, because the fav won and my win was reduced.
 
caboto13 said:
Playoffs
ML parlay Bills / Chiefs (odds boost) @110 to win 2.2u
Texans - Browns over 44.5 @-110 to win 1u
Texans TT over 20,5 @-120 to win 1u
Texans +2.5 @100 to win 1u
Packers +7 @-110 to win 1u
Lions - Rams over 51.5 @-110 to win 1u
Packers TT over 20.5 @-120 to win 1u

5-1 +3.9u

Have an 11-leg-fav-parlay for 0.5u stake to win around 8u with only Bills ML pending. With the posted two-leg parlay a 10u win, if Bills win.
Thought about hedging, but can't imagine a scenario where the Steelers pull out a win. If they, so be it, but in similiar situations in the past, hedging cost me only money, because the fav won and my win was reduced.
Click to expand...
Agree 99% with you, I think the Bills roll but there’s nothing better than watching a game knowing there is no way you can lose money. Just my two cents
 
Wild-card weekend
ML parlay Bills / Chiefs (odds boost) @110 to win 2.2u
Texans - Browns over 44.5 @-110 to win 1u
Texans TT over 20,5 @-120 to win 1u
Texans +2.5 @100 to win 1u
Packers +7 @-110 to win 1u
Lions - Rams over 51.5 @-110 to win 1u
Packers TT over 20.5 @-120 to win 1u
Bills TT over 24.5 @-105 to win 1u

7-1 +7.1u

Playoffs: 7-1 +7.1u
Regular Season: 82-82-1 +10.36u
Overall: 89-83-1 +17.46u
 
Divisionals
Texans TT over 16.5 @-120 to win 2u
Texans +9.5 @-110 to win 1u
Ravens - Texans over 43.5 @-110 to win 1u
Ravens win and both teams score 20+ @310 to win 3.1u

I do trust C.J.Stroud to score on the Ravens defense. I know the angles "dome team playing in the cold", "rookie playing playoff games on the road", "Ravens are (too?) well rested", which are all pointing to favor the Ravens to win in a blowout. And when the Ravens will jump out to an early 14-0 lead, this will go down for the Texans.

But they have nothing to lose in contrast to Lamar Jacksons who is 1-3 in the playoffs and seems to have to prove something similiar to Dak, who failed trying it. Of course Jackson has got the way better coach behind him, but my guts say, Houston will keep it close. I'm fine with a 24-21 Ravens win by a late field goal by Justin Tucker.
 
Gopack124 said:
Nice play. You were one of very few on GB. I bleed green and yellow but the packers were the better team
Click to expand...
Thx. Unfortunately they couldn't finish the game. Missed fg and tournover on downs cost them advancing to the championship game, but future looks good.
 
Game parlay: Lions MLL @ over 42.5 @-110 to win 3u
Lions TT over 27.5 @-110 to win 2u (should be 1u but made a typo so let it roll.)

Expect a shooutot, but don't like the spread, so I try this way.
 
Had a very good wild-card weekend, but obviously the Lions and the Bucks won't get to 43. So fade

Bills -2.5 @-120 to win 1u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-115 to win 1u
 
caboto13 said:
Had a very good wild-card weekend, but obviously the Lions and the Bucks won't get to 43. So fade

Bills -2.5 @-120 to win 1u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-115 to win 1u
Click to expand...

There’s still 18 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for some wildness.
 
emg2525 said:
There’s still 18 minutes left in the game. Plenty of time for some wildness.
Click to expand...
You were right. I sometimes forget that one or two plays can change the story of a game completely. 2-0 +5u for the Lions game.

Divisionals: 5-4 +2.3u
Playoffs: 12-5 +9.4
Regular: 82-82-1 +10.36
Overall: 94-87-1 +19.76u
 
Championship
I can get a -110 for a Ravens/49ers parlay, but honestly I do think, there will be at least one dog, who can keept it close or even upset the fav and probably this team will be the Chiefs.

I liked the Chiefs as 3.5 dog at the beginning of the week and played it for 2u, because I expected the line to move to +3. With moving to +4.5 I added another 2u.

I know, the Ravens are the better, the more complete team and will probably win, but with Mahomes playing his six straight championship game in a row, I go with his outstanding plays in crucial situations to keep it close. Of course Jackson played an incredible season and has deserved MVP award for sure, but yet he hasn't won or eved played at this stage. So I'll take the more experienced team to get more than a field goal.

Chiefs +3.5 @-105 to win 2u
Chiefs +4.5 @-113 to win 2u
 
Since 2015 there were nine AFC championship games and we got 44+ points in seven of them (52,53,44,68,59,62,51) and 43 last year and 38 2016. WIth the offensive weapons both teams have, I think there will be a lot of big plays and so I'll go with the over. Andrews for the Ravens and Pacheco for the Chiefs will help.

Ravens - Chiefs over 44 @-110 to win 3u
 
Add another unit to make the over a 4u play.

Ravens -Chiefs over 44 @-110 to win 4u
Odds boost Mahomes and Jackson 1+ passing touchdowns each @200 to win 3u
Odds boost Andrews and Kelce touchdown yes @700 to win 7u
 
Rooting for the Lions, but have to go with
49ers -7 @-120 to win 2u

Probably +1.6u on the Ravens game. Lots of chances to get to 44, but I'm happy with a small +.

Think the 49ers have learned their lessons after the Green Bay game. The secondary of the Lions will have a difficult task to stop all the offensive weapons.
 
Divisionals
Texans TT over 16.5 @-120 to win 2u
Texans +9.5 @-110 to win 1u
Ravens - Texans over 43.5 @-110 to win 1u
Ravens win and both teams score 20+ @310 to win 3.1u
Packers +10 @-110 to win 1u
Game parlay: Lions MLL @ over 42.5 @-110 to win 3u
Lions TT over 27.5 @-110 to win 2u (should be 1u but made a typo so let it roll.)
Bills -2.5 @-120 to win 1u
Bills TT over 23.5 @-115 to win 1u
Divisionals: 5-4 +2.3u

Championship
Chiefs +3.5 @-105 to win 2u
Chiefs +4.5 @-113 to win 2u
Ravens -Chiefs over 44 @-110 to win 4u
Odds boost Mahomes and Jackson 1+ passing touchdowns each @200 to win 3u
Odds boost Andrews and Kelce touchdown yes @700 to win 7u
49ers -7 @-120 to win 2u

3-3 -0,8u

Playoffs: 15-8 +8,6
Regular: 82-82-1 +10.36
Overall: 97-90-1 +18.96u
 
Super Bowl
I see both teams pretty even, so I think, the line is correct. Have to find the decisive factors and I found:
Mahomes > Purdy
Reid > Shanahan
Experience: Chiefs > 49ers

No idea for the total. Long, time-consuming drives are possible with CMC and Pacheco, but a shootout might happen, if one team gets an early 14-0 lead as both qb are able to pass the ball. So less units regarding the total but probably 2 units to the under. Still debating with myself, will post later, if I play the total. Might pass.

Chiefs +2,5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs ML @100 to win 3u
Freebet: Chiefs ML @110 to win 4.4u

Won a promo to bet 20u for free, where are 10u left, so will made some fun bets for free with props and maybe the total.
 
Freebet (super boost): Kelce td yes @150 to win 4u
Freebet: Chiefs score every quarter @220 to win 2.2u
Freebet: McCaffrey 2+ td @162 to win 1.62u
Freebet: Mahomes 3+ passing td @250 to win 2.5u
Freebet: Chiefs TT over 24,5 @115 to win 1.15u
Freebet: 49ers TT over 24,5 @-115 to win 1u
Freebet: Chiefs TT over 6.5 1q @130 to win 1.3u

Obviously I do think the Chiefs will win this game for reasons mentioned above. Thanks to the promo I can afford to have bets I usually do not place. Risking 2.3u for the +2.5 and 3 for the ML. So worst case is to close with 13+ units overall and I#m fine with it. Have fun and enjoy the game!
 
Final recap:
Chiefs +2,5 @-115 to win 2u
Chiefs ML @100 to win 3u
Freebet: Chiefs ML @110 to win 4.4u
Freebet (super boost): Kelce td yes @150 to win 4u
Freebet: Chiefs score every quarter @220 to win 2.2u
Freebet: McCaffrey 2+ td @162 to win 1.62u
Freebet: Mahomes 3+ passing td @250 to win 2.5u
Freebet: Chiefs TT over 24,5 @115 to win 1.15u
Freebet: 49ers TT over 24,5 @-115 to win 1u
Freebet: Chiefs TT over 6.5 1q @130 to win 1.3u


Super Bowl: 4-6 +10.55u (2-0 +5u with own money)
Playoffs: 19-15 +19.15
Regular: 82-82-1 +10.36
Overall: 101-97-1 +29.51u

Thanks for sharing thoughts and analysis again. See you in September!
 
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