NFL 2023

C

caboto13

Pretty much a regular
Hi guys, good to be back.

Because I'm coming from Europe, I haven't learned how to follow the NFL offseason. Got some news about the Rodgers trade but basically haven't read anything about NFL since February. Lots of things happened. Of course tried to get some tickets for London or Frankfurt games, but in vain. So today I looked up the schedule for week 1 and my first reactions where:
-> Packers are dogged against the Bears? Line moved to +1, but think the Pack has the better team overall an hope, they will keep it close.
-> Ravens -10. Rookie on the road at Baltimore against Jackson. Maybe Texans TT under.
-> Steelers home dog against an east coast time playing at 1.p.m Like it at +3.
-> Could it be a strategy to fade the Cardinals by principle? Think they are really bad. Do you think we'll see a 6,5?
-> Lions +7 hmmm?

Bit time at the weekend to dig deeper into the numbers and rosters, but will bet week 1 careful.



NFL 2022: 71-93-1 +13.13u
NFL 2021: 80-78 +73,70u
NFL 2020: 76-91-2 -11,38u
NFL 2019: 78-89-6 +2,75 units
NFL 2018: 102-113-1 +5,52 units
-------------------------------------
NFL overall: 407-464-10 +83,32u
 
Week 1
Liked the Lions with +6,5 but I'm not sure about +4,5. Andy Reid with time to prepare and Mahomes in season openers pretty good. Think the Lions offense can score against the Chiefs defense and keep it close.

Teaser parlay Lions +10,5 / Steelers +6,5 @-110 to win 1u
Lions TT over 23.5 @-115 to win 1u
Ravens -10 @-110 to win 1u
 
Add
Titans +3 @-115

Going with the better coach and the points in the season opener.
Skipped the Packers due to their WR problems.

Maybe the Dolphins and Seahawks for the late games.
 
Week 1
Teaser parlay Lions +10,5 / Steelers +6,5 @-110 to win 1u
Lions TT over 23.5 @-115 to win 1u
Ravens -10 @-110 to win 1u
Titans +3 @-115 to win 1u

2-2 -0.25 take a small loss in week 1

Week 2
Bucs -3 @-110 to win 1u
Raiders -8 @-110 to win 1u

More a play against the Bears as one on the Bucs. Liked the Bucs last weeks, played a pretty good game on the road and escaped with a win from Minnesota. Bears played a poor game and as long as they don't prove me wrong, I will fade them especially on the road.

Think it's a bad spot for the Raiders playing on the East Coast in an early game against a Bills team, that just lost against the Jets without Rodgers. I expect the Bills to right the ship today and win a 27-14-type game.
 
Broncos -4 @-110 to win 1u

Commanders barely beat the Cardinals Last week and take the better team with coaching advantage.
 
Week 2
Bucs -3 @-110 to win 1u
Raiders -8 @-110 to win 1u
Broncos -4 @-110 to win 1u

Went to bed with the Broncos up 21-3, already enjoying a perfect 3-0 Sunday and was wondering what happened, when I looked up the score the next morning. Nevertheless

2-1 +0,9u
Overall: 4-3 +0,65u

Week 3
49ers -10,5 @-110 to win 3u

Can't play this another way due to the last two weeks. Short week on the road, though I don't know, if they stayed at the West Coast. Home opener for the 49ers, who kept the Steelers and the Rams in check, who I think are better than the Giants. Arizona lead 20-0, if 49ers do so, the Giants won't come back.
 
Titans +3,5 @-115 to win 1u
Chiefs -12,5 @-110 to win 1u

I roll with the Titans as an Underdog. 2-0 ATS so far and with Vrabel coaching and Henry yet to have a monster game, I take the points.
The Bears are awful and Chiefs will get the win after the loss in the home opener against the Lions. Offense sputtering last week, but not today.
 
Vikings - Chargers over 54 @-110 to win 1u

Doubt the Chargers will fix their defense against Cousins & Jefferson.
 
Week 3
49ers -10,5 @-110 to win 3u
Titans +3,5 @-115 to win 1u
Chiefs -12,5 @-110 to win 1u
Vikings - Chargers over 54 @-110 to win 1u

Couldn't believe the Vikings game stayed unter with Cousins getting it back to get the opportunity for the game winning td.

2-2 +1.75
Overall: 6-5 +2.4u

ATS: 6-2 +5.75
Rest: 0-3 -3.35
Conclusion: stay with the ATS bets
 
Week 4
Jaguars -3 @-110 to win 2u
Bucs +3 @100 to win 1u

Think the Jaguars are able to stop the run, which is the only offensive weapon the Falcons have. Time to get a convincing win in a like-home game. At least the Jaguars should be better prepared for the London game.

The Saints offense were awful after Carr leaving the Packers game and I do think, the Bucs can keep this close against against Winston.
 
caboto13 said:
Week 4
Jaguars -3 @-110 to win 2u
Bucs +3 @100 to win 1u

Think the Jaguars are able to stop the run, which is the only offensive weapon the Falcons have. Time to get a convincing win in a like-home game. At least the Jaguars should be better prepared for the London game.

The Saints offense were awful after Carr leaving the Packers game and I do think, the Bucs can keep this close against against Winston.
Click to expand...
Yup.

The defensive gameplan vs the ATL is pretty simple.

Tampa a live one as well.
 
Week 4
Jaguars -3 @-110 to win 2u
Bucs +3 @100 to win 1u

2-0 +3
Overall: 8-5 +5.4u

ATS: 8-2 +8.75
Rest: 0-3 -3.35
 
Week 5
ML parlay Commanders / Bills / Lions / Dolphins @156 to win 1.56u
Bills -5.5 @-110 to win 1u
Rams +4 @-110 to win 1u
49ers -3.5 @100 to win1u
1-3 -2,2
Overall: 9-8 +3,2u

ATS: 9-4 +7.55
Rest: 0-4 -4.35
 
Titans +5,5 @-110 to win 1u

Can't really understand, why the line moved 2 full points, defensive injuries ok, but I think with Henry healthy and Vrabel coaching the Titans have always a chance to keep a low scoring affair close. Relying on Tucker always worth at least two field goals and with the offense struggling maybe also the Titans will lean on fg. 20-16 Ravens.
 
Week 6
Chiefs - Broncos under 47@-110 to win 1u
Ravens - Titans over 3.5 field goals @-105 to win 1u
Lions -3 @-110 to win 2u
Rams -7 @-110 to win 2u
Titans +5,5 @-110 to win 1u
ML parlay Rams / Eagles / 49ers @-104 to win 2u
4-2 +2.82u
Overall: 13-10 +6,02u

ATS: 11-5 +10.45
Rest: 2-5 -4.43

Titans had the chance to make it 24-19 by throwing a td, but nevertheless I'll take a winning week everyday.
 
There is a weird stat for teams after playing the 49ers. Most of them lose. Can't find it to prove by numbers. But I try the Colts getting more than a field goals at home even with Minshew playing. Can only go up after last week.

I fade the Falcons against a strong defense on the road as long as Ridder is playing, especially when I get less than 3 in a division game a week after the home team got beaten and the saying is, the Bucs are no good team.

I fade the Broncos against a team getting a bye and because I think, they're bad. Plain and simple.
 
Week 7
Colts +3.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bucs -2.5 @-110 to win 2u
Packers -1 @-110 to win 2u
Marc Andrews (BAL) td: yes @200 to win 2u
ML parlay Bills / Bucs / Commanders / Rams @451 to win 4.51u
Giants - Commanders over 37 @-110 to win 1u

2-4 -3.5u
Overall: 15-14 +2,52u

ATS: 12-7 +7.05
Rest: 3-7 -4.53
 
Week 8
Bills - Bucs under 43.5 @-110 to win 1u
Dolphins -8 @-110 to win 2u
Colts +2 @-110 to win 1u
Cowboys - Rams under 46,5 @-110 to win 1u
Packers +1,5 @-110 to win 1u
Titans - Falcons over 3.5 field goals @120 to win 1.2u
Bijan Robinson (ATL) td: yes @155 to win 1.55u
ML parlay Cowboys / Jets / Eagles @162 to win 1.62u
 
Week 8
Bills - Bucs under 43.5 @-110 to win 1u
Dolphins -8 @-110 to win 2u
Colts +2 @-110 to win 1u
Cowboys - Rams under 46,5 @-110 to win 1u
Packers +1,5 @-110 to win 1u
Titans - Falcons over 3.5 field goals @120 to win 1.2u
Bijan Robinson (ATL) td: yes @155 to win 1.55u
ML parlay Cowboys / Jets / Eagles @162 to win 1.62u
Colts - Saints over 43.5 @-110 to win 1u
Broncos - Chiefs under 46.5 @-110 to win 1u
Ravens -9.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bengals +4.5 @-110 to win 1u
49ers - Bengals over 44.5@-110 to win 1u

Can't believe the Ravens didn't cover -9.5.

8-5 +4.77
Overall: 23-19 +7,29u

ATS: 14-10 +6.75
Rest: 9-9 +0.54
 
Recap week 8
MNF Lions TT over27.5 @-110 to win 1u

Think I was on the right side, but three goal-to-go with only 3 points or 1/5 in redzone cost it.
But on the lucky side with the parlay by Jets winning in OT, so I take a positive week.

8-6 +3.67
Overall: 23-20 +6,19u

ATS: 14-10 +6.75
Rest: 9-10 -0.56
 
Week 9
Ravens - Seahawks over 44 @-110 to win 1u
Panthers +2.5 @-110 to win 1u
Commanders +3 @-115 to win 1u
Parlay Ravens -2.5 / Saints -3.5 @100 to win 1u
ML parlay Chiefs / Falcons / Saints / Raiders / Bengals / Panthers @1940 to win 19.4u
 
Week 9
Panthers TT over 21.5 @-115 to win 1u
Panthers - Colts over 44.5 @-110 to win 1u
Olave (NO) touchdown yes @170 to win 1.7u
Andrews (BAL) touchdown yes @155 to win 1.55u
Robinson (ATL) touchdown yes @100 to win 1u
Ravens - Seahawks over 44 @-110 to win 1u
Panthers +2.5 @-110 to win 1u
Commanders +3 @-115 to win 1u
Parlay Ravens -2.5 / Saints -3.5 @100 to win 1u
ML parlay Chiefs / Falcons / Saints / Raiders / Bengals / Panthers @1940 to win 19.4u

3-7 -2.65u
Overall: 26-27 +3.54u

ATS: 15-11 +6.65
Rest: 11-16 -3.11
 
Titans +2.5 @-110 to win 2u
Vikings +3 @-110 to win 1u
ML parlay Steelers / Seahawks @122 to win 1.22u
Bengals - Texans over 46 @-110 to win 1u
Jags - 49ers over 44.5 @-110 to win 1u

I have a 10-leg-fav-parlay starting on MNF with the Chargers and CL in soccer and Bundesliga that only needs a Ravens win to win 12u. I let it ride as I think the Ravens are the better team. Last two times I hedged I lost. Of course off the record.

Like Burrow and Stroud in good form to continue their offensive scoring to get an easy over in Cincinnati. Also the 49ers have more options with Samuel back. Expect a close game that Jags cover +3.5. Also expecting tight games that might go down to the wire and take (nearly) a field goal in Minnesota and TB.

Like Murray and the Cardinals later and the over in LA.
 
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